Royals News Roundup: No Big Moves for 2012?

by Freneau on Oct 31, 2011 12:44 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

We move quickly into full-blown off-season mode. Rany shares more thoughts on starting pitching, the organization sends out signs they won't be making a big move, Schaum ranks the prospects, and Lefebvre-headed-north gets official discussion.

Today's question is: will the Royals pick up Soria's $6 million dollar option for 2012? No way they cut him lose, right?

In other news the Orioles are changing caps and a much-discussed article on the marriage market.

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For those who believe that the Royals are close and just need a good SP or two to get into contention

How do you react to the news that the Royals might not spend the money or prospects to acquire one or two good SP’s? Are you:

1. Upset because the Royals are passing up their first chance to contend in years.
2. Not upset because I don’t believe these stories. This is just GM-speak, public relations, expectations managing and/or unconfirmed rumors.
3. Happy because this persuades me that the Royals probably aren’t as close as I thought they were.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

If KC was a more intense media town, people would be killing Dayton Moore for his moving-targetism

I think this is mostly spin and always had been. Moore’s trying to manage expectactions. He talked a big game about 2012 to save his job and now he’s trying to back off it

by Freneau on Oct 31, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I still think he'll make a significant splash

Either through FA’s or trades or both. I still think Wandy Rodriguez will be wearing Royal blue in April. And that won’t be the only pitcher the Royals acquire.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I really hope they don't go too crazy on trades.

The time to compete is obviously 2013-17, and losing Myers, Odorizzi, or Montgomery before competing is foolish. Still, I do think 1 SP could make a significant difference when it replaces 27 abysmal starts by Mazzaro, O’Sullivan and Davies. A 4.0 WAR would be terrific. Oh wait, a 0.0 rWAR would be an improvement by 3.3 over their output.

by dejezeus on Oct 31, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I predict they make one smart move

And one really stupid move.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 31, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

your ratio is off a smidge

4-1 would be more historically accurate.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 31, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

But he's improving!!!!!

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

He Has Heard

Rumors of magical things like OPS and WHIP. He intends to investigate these sometime……maybe.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 1, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

After Laffey, we're down to 3:1

by Loose Seal on Oct 31, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with Will on the moving targetism

if several of the prospects fall on their face next year, and the Royals cruise in with a low 70s win total or less, the light might be showing at the end of the tunnel. How much rope does GMDM have? They almost have to contend by the end of 2013 or GMDM will be toast….right? At which point, we’d have to rub the fuzz off the old rabbit’s foot and hope that Glass has a better consigliere than Drayton McLain whispering GM candidates into his ear.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 31, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm on record as saying that winning fewer than 78 games this year puts DM on a short leash

If they don’t make significiant improvements in the win column in 2012, I think a slow start in 2013 would lead to Moore being fired.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

that sounds about right

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Royals put up a 7 game improvement on last season. Which, I should say, makes me really excited. It’s been eight years since I’ve seen 78-win ball.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

ain't that the sad truth

doesn’t take much to get us excited anymore….like sailors on shore leave.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 31, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

an all-star game and 78 wins?

looks like 2012 is going to be my year.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I think this is the offseason where

Dayton has to choose between himself and the good of the franchise, at least to the extent of putting himself on the hot seat a year from now by not making a big commitment of money and/or top prospects to upgrade the rotation.

It seems likely he will choose himself, and he will do it in part by convincing the Glasses that it is in the Royals’ best interest to go for it in 2012, if he hasn’t already. What scares me is that he could he get himself a “hey, we’re on the right track” contract extension if they win even 82 or 83 games next year.

I want the Royals to succeed in the worst way-watching the Cards fans celebrate here in STL is killing me. But neither 77 nor 82 wins will get them in the playoffs in 2012-all that incremental improvement will buy is job security for Dayton Moore. The 2011 Royals are not the 2007 Rays, but the 2012 Royals just might be. And I would hate to see the FO do anything to hamper their ability to make moves when the chance to compete is real and immediate.

by thelaundry on Oct 31, 2011 2:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think if he makes a major move for a pitcher

He will look get at least 3 years of that guy.

And I don’t think we should be too concerned about him trading prospects.

DM has never traded one of his top-tier prospects before as Royals GM, has he? I have a hard time imagining anyone could value them as much as he does, actually. Maybe an arm or two gets dealt, but I think he probably really believes in his position prospects like Myers, Cuthbert, and Colon.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

So he'll trade for 3+ years of a poor pitcher?

Because trading for 3+ years of a good pitcher will require trading one or more top tier prospects. That is unless you’re talking about an average MLB pitcher with 3+ years of team control remaining who has a massive contract that the team is willing to trade away for something less than top prospects. I don’t think any of the long list of pitchers who have been discussed as possible trade targets meets those criteria.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re probably right. It’s a double-bind. And maybe he has to settle for 2 years.

If I were to guess though, I’d imagine he makes his mistakes in FA or taking on a big contract for a bad pitcher (AJ Burnett) instead of trading away one of his treasured prospects.

The man is loyal to a fault, right? Trading his elite prospects seems completely out of character.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You’re probably right. It’s a double-bind. And maybe he has to settle for 2 years.

And that, in a nutshell, is why I don’t think a prospects-for-SP trade should be done this offseason. You’d be trading for two years of a player, and one of those years is likely to not help the team contend.

The man is loyal to a fault, right? Trading his elite prospects seems completely out of character

Personally, I’ve never bought the whole “Moore is loyal to ‘his guys’” thing. He’s been in a major league front office for a long time. He knows that players are commodities. You sign them, you promote them, you play them, you trade them. That’s the game of baseball. He has traded players he’s signed. He has traded players he’s traded for. He’s even traded one or two prospects he’s drafted. I don’t think he’s against trading top prospects per se. I also don’t think he’s necessarily eager to trade them. I think he’ll trade any player if he thinks it makes the team better.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

So maybe not loyal to people per se

But loyal to the player evaluation process which said that those players would develop into quality MLB players. Either way, it makes those guys which were scouted and chosen based on the tools, character, etc evaluation he really believes in and makes trading them darn near impossible.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think so. Yes, he likes the tools, etc. of those players. But he knows that many prospects will fail. He’s been around long enough to see many good and great prospects with good tools, character, etc. fail. And the same evaluative process that likes the Royals top prospects undoubtedly really likes a number of major league pitchers on other teams. I can certainly see him trading the potential of some prospects for what he sees as the near certainty of immediate good performance of some MLB pitcher(s).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

We will see. I’m not convinced he’s that rational.

And I think you’re underselling how loyal he is too. This is the man who cried when he had to fire Trey Hillman and gave him the bizarre “one last chance to manage the team” opportunity.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

people loved Gutierrez and Cortes at one point

they were both considered top-5 once. though, I think they had lost some of their shine at the time of being dealt.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Not Moore's prospects

and I can see a non-Montgomery arm being traded.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

How many GM's get fired mid season though?

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by averagegatsby on Oct 31, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know

Glass has done it though.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it makes more sense

Give the new guy a month or two to evaluate the team before diving into the offseason.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 31, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

The offseason is like a GM’s “season” so it makes sense to change GM’s on their “offseason” which is the MLB season.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously the problem with Wandy is

The third year club option becomes a player option if he’s traded. That becomes a problem because then any team trading for him will want a lot more cash than if Houston could trade Wandy without that third year option converting.

I agree that I think we’ll see a trade but Wandy, in particular, looks like a hard nut to crack because of the economics of the trade.

On the bright side, it looks like it would be minimal in terms of prospects. On the downside, it looks expensive and I’d be surprised to see Houston throw in much cash.

Sound about right?

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 2:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The third year is an issue. The other issue is that he’s a marginal improvement over a guy like Jeff Francis, so it’s hard to justify any deal that involves giving up a real prospect AND paying his contract, which is not much of a bargain to begin with.

by Loose Seal on Oct 31, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I get the feeling Kauffman is a far friendlier place than Minute Maid

I think you’re overselling Francis or underselling Wandy. I think Wandy is a middle of the pack number 2. He got hurt by the longball this year. That’s ordinarily not a problem for Royals pitchers.

I think he’s probably a 3.5 fWAR pitcher or so, which means he’s a middle of the pack number 2 guy. Maybe he gets killed in the AL, but it’s not like we’re in the AL East or anything.

I get that he makes our team marginally better, overall, than a guy like Francis. I’m curious to see what Francis commands on the open market though. I would think at least 2/10.

And I don’t think Wandy would cost a real prospect, or that any team would be willing to give up one for him unless Houston threw some cash into the deal.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually Minute Maid and Kauffman Stadium are about the same with regard to being pitcher/hitter friendly

As far as park effects on wOBA, they are almost exactly identical, but they get their differently. Kauffman stadium gives up more doubles and triples. Minute Maid gives up more HR’s. I’d be willing to accept that Wandy would do better in Kauffman Stadium if he were a flyball pitcher, but he isn’t. His GB and FB rates are pretty much average. And his career HR/FB have been right about at league average (11%). So I don’t think Kauffman Stadium would help him. Playing in the AL would certainly hurt him.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

except last year

his HR/FB rate went up a little, resulting in the low fWAR relative to previous years

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

If you're saying he'd likely be better than a 1.5 WAR pitcher with the Royals next year, then I agree

He’d also very likely be better than a 1.5 WAR pitcher for the Astros next year. His true talent level is clearly higher than that. But I don’t think his numbers would likely be better in KC over the next 2-3 years than he would be in Houston over the same period of time.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh no, just that I didn't think last year was representative of his talent.

And that such a high HR/FB rate is more unlikely in KC. I think he’s roughly a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher though. You?

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

In the AL, I think he's more of a 2.5 WAR pitcher

Over the last 5 years, he’s averaged 2.9 fWAR. And the down year at age 32 concerns me. The rule of thumb when projecting pitchers is subtracted .5 WAR per year going forward. I don’t Kauffman Stadium will be more friendly to him than Minute Maid, and I think the AL will be considerably harder on him. So, very roughly, as a Royal, I have him at:

2012: 2.5 WAR
2013: 2 WAR
2014: Player option where he stays only if he’s been performing badly or is injured.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW, BR's WAR has him at a 2.7 WAR average over the last 5 years

(with only one season over 2.7 WAR)

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

5 years seems long for a pitcher. Even if you want to consider 5 year, equally weighting them makes little sense. Pitching skills vary much moreso than hitting skills.

The down year wasn’t that down, a lot of that was HR/FB ratio well above his career average.

There is a lot of reason to think that Kauffman will be friendlier to him in terms of HR/FB which is what killed him last yer in fWAR.

And I just can’t take bWAR for pitchers seriously by itself. It says Bruce Chen was a 2.6 WAR player last year.

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

5 years seems long for a pitcher. Even if you want to consider 5 year, equally weighting them makes little sense. Pitching skills vary much moreso than hitting skills.

I don’t know that pitching skills vary much moreso from year to year than hitting skills. And it’s not like those five years include his rookie season or even his sophomore season. He had “arrived” by the time that five year period begins. And yes, a weighted average is better. I just tossed out the average because it was quick and easy. Using a 5-4-3-2-1 weighted average for those 5 years, you get 2.79 WAR. And if you just do a 5-4-3 weighted average of the last 3 years, you get 2.83 WAR.

There is a lot of reason to think that Kauffman will be friendlier to him in terms of HR/FB which is what killed him last yer in fWAR.

Yes, he should be better than last year, but no one is debating that. Should he be better than his last 3-5 years at Kauffman Stadium than at Minute Maid? The park factor data says he shouldn’t.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

You're still including one year (2011) which is biased

and averaging that bias doesn’t make it go away

by WURoyal on Oct 31, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Biased?

Are you saying that we shouldn’t count 2011 because he was the victim of some HR/FB luck? Like every pitcher, he has the beneficiary and victim of some good and bad luck in every season of his career. You don’t just excise some seasons because there was some bad or good luck involved. His career HR/FB has been 11%. You want to take out his 2011 season because his HR/FB in that season was 13%. Should we also take out his 2010 season because had good luck that year with a 9% HR/FB? And should we also take out 2008 where it was 9.6%?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Indians trade for Lowe

I don’t think he was mentioned in any of the threads focusing on SPs to acquire, but I think he was mentioned in a Dayton Moore-loves-Braves sort of way.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

How dare they!

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/indians-acquire-derek-lowe.html

They also declined Sizemore’s option

totally stealing our thunder

by Freneau on Oct 31, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously their medical staff thought Sizemore was too much of a risk

after their tremendous work prior to the Hafner extension, I think we can trust their judgment.

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by Matt Klaassen on Oct 31, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

The Big Question

Will Grady’s Ladies follow a 4th OF?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 1, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

oh no, Lowe was mentioned on more than one occasion

Really, every starting pitcher on another team who does not completely suck has been mentioned in at least one thread.

by Gopherballs on Oct 31, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

We talked about Lowe

And I said I would be interested if the Braves ate at least 9-10 million. It seems to me Dayton would likely have had the opportunity to make this deal and declined. I would have praised him for it as trying to find sensible, low risk pitching options. Is it fair to say that this means that he is focused more on a bigger move? Maybe not. But you could it take it that way, considering the Braves are involved.

by thelaundry on Oct 31, 2011 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I mentioned him as the second player...

in a Mike Minor or Beachy deal. So much for that idea. So much the better, probably.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Oct 31, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

And obviously it may be the scouts told him

To stay away from Lowe. I hope he realizes he may very well be making a similar dump trade in the future if he signs EJax or acquires Wandy.

by thelaundry on Oct 31, 2011 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I thought that Atlantic article got better as it went

because, at first I thought it was going to be however many pages of a well-educated single woman’s relationship problems. I can’t think of anything less interesting.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

IMO

Relationship dynamics as they are affected by outside factors such as economics and the current state of flux: Interesting.

I’m smart, have a lot going on/to offer, but these guys aren’t meeting my standards: Not interesting.

by 9il on Oct 31, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not a huge fan of the "this happened to me, so this is a universal scenario" genre of writing

but that obviously like 90% of everything ever written

by Freneau on Oct 31, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Haven't read the Atlantic article yet (although its sitting on my toilet)

But Time had a similar cover story article a few months ago.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 31, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

No big moves for 2012? Good it follows the D.A.Y.T.O.N. System.....Photo Credit to AxDxMx

BFIB

by tiquanunderwear on Oct 31, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Soria's gotta be picked up

I think he’ll bounce back, and even if he doesn’t , it’s not a back-breaking contract. And I think we could also just sign him to turn around and trade him.

OT: Fangraphs rates his WAR as substantially lower than BR (about 1.2 WAR less per season from 2007-2010, but .1 higher in 2011). Can anybody explain why they vary so much?

by Loose Seal on Oct 31, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions

Long story short

Fangraphs pitching WAR is based on FIP. BR’s WAR is based on runs allowed with some adjustment for team defense.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

by Loose Seal on Oct 31, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

which method is considered more accurate?

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 31, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s no easy answer. But I think a significant majority of the sabermetric community would say that unless you are looking at multiple MLB seasons and 1,000+ IP, go with a WAR based on fielding independent pitching stats, like fWAR. When you get a ton of data on a pitcher, then you have a better idea of his personal BABIP. With less than a ton of data, you do better by assuming average BABIP.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

that makes sense....I'll have to cross check a couple of guys just for shits and giggles

I wonder if there is that much variance between the two….for whatever reason, I’ve never gotten that comfortable using fangraphs database….BR seems more intuitive to me, so I’m more likely to go that route whenever I’m motivated to look something up. It’s dangerous tho….a few clicks and you are deep into the single game results of the 1964 St Louis Cardinals season, because your Mom got nostalgic during the WS and mentioned to you that your Grandpa used to go to St Louis with drinking buddies every summer, etc.etc.etc…. Curt Simmons? Bobby Shantz? Gibson might not have even been the best pitcher on some of those 60s Cardinals teams.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 31, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

There is often a significant difference

I don’t think BR’s WAR does a good job of taking defense into account, so I think their WAR includes too much defense as well as bad luck.

An argument can be made that if you’re looking at multiple years for a player, that you should average the two WAR’s. I know Tom Tango has endorsed that idea, at least in a casual way.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 31, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I find...

that though there’s a difference between the two, they DO mostly concur on the overall pattern of someone’s career. For instance, the totals for Wandy Rodriguez in BR read: -1.3, 1.3,1.9, 5.1, 2.3, 2.7 and in Fangraphs, 1.1, 2.7, 2.6, 4.0, 3.6, 1.5. Both show a progression, peak, and the start of decline, even if they differ by how much each year. So I look at both.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Oct 31, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions