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Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Jair Jurrjens

Name: Jair Jurrjens, 25 year RHP with the Braves

Contract:  He will be going into is 2nd year of arbitration. 2 years until a FA (I am horrible with contract information, so let me know if I am wrong). Was paid $3.25M in 2011.

Pitches: He throws several different fastballs (60% of the time). Also he has a curve/slider/cutter (20%) and a change (20%). His fastball averaged 89.1 MPH this last season. It is down almost 3 MPH since he joined the league:

Star-divide

5556_p_fa_20110830_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

Results

Here is his stats over the years:

Year Team IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP SIERA WAR
2007 Tigers 30.2 3.8 3.2 21.5% 4.70 5.26 5.32 5.60 0.2
2008 Braves 188.1 6.6 3.4 30.1% 3.68 3.59 3.92 4.16 3.7
2009 Braves 215.0 6.4 3.1 26.8% 2.60 3.68 4.28 4.43 3.9
2010 Braves 116.1 6.7 3.3 30.0% 4.64 4.19 4.29 4.36 1.2
2011 Braves 152.0 5.3 2.6 26.9% 2.96 3.99 4.23 4.28 1.5

The drop in velocity can be seen the drop in K/9.  He does have a nice shiny ERA from 2011, his ERA estimators show him as a worse pitcher.  

For comparison, here are the K/9 and BB/9 for a few Royals this last year:

Injury History:

2007: Shoulder (missed 14 games)
2008: Ankle (missed 5 games)
2010: Hamstring (missed 52 games)
2011: Side (missed 11 days)
2011: Knee (missed 34 games total, 2 DL trips)

Conclusions:

A big pass with me unless he come real cheap. He is showing degrading skills (fastball and health) along with a skill set that is comparable to pitchers already on the Royals staff.  If he was an available FA, I would not mind taking a chance with a minor league deal hoping he could improve. He is not an answer for improving the pitching staff.

Comment 90 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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You're right about the contract

2012 Arb 2
2013 Arb 3
2014 FA

I wouldn’t want to trade any of our best prospects for a player who is only going to be under team control for 2012 and 2013 (as I think only one of those years has the real potential to be a contending year).

Jair Jurrjens looks to me like a league average pitcher (when he’s pitching) who has had more than his share of injury problems in recent years. This would be a good guy for the Royals to stay away from.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 10:26 AM EDT reply actions  

JJ scares me, too.

Beachy is the Atlanta guy, I’d prefer, with Minor slightly behind. Could see a situation where the Royals could have to take Derek Lowe and most/all of his salary, as well as whomever they’d recieve. Could be worse, I suppose.

Getting both Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez is MY wish that ain’t comin true.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Oct 4, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Taking on Lowe's $15M for 2012 would be a nice price to pay

The Royals could afford to swallow a high salary on a guy like Lowe for one season to facillitate getting someone like Beachy or Minor. But it would still require giving up Myers+.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting idea

While we’re throwing names out, what about Wandy and Bud Norris? I like Bud’s K rate, but he just had “shoulder discomfort”.

by thelaundry on Oct 4, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Taking on Lowe’s contract to get Beachy or Minor works because Lowe only has one year left on his contract. Wandy is a little different in that his contract is two guaranteed years plus a player option for a third.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

True

1 year of Lowe is less risk than 3 years of Wandy. If the Royals can’t develop at least one other effective SP from within by 2013 that would replace Lowe in that hypothetical, they are in trouble.

by thelaundry on Oct 4, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kind of like Lowe as a bounce back candidate

He still gets the groundballs, he was killed by Atlanta’s awful infield defense (Freeman, Uggla, Gonzalez, and Jones were collectively something like -35 runs last year), and his swinging strike rate last year (8.1%) was right there with his career rate (7.9%). Plus, if you believe in such things, he will be pitching in a contract year.

If Atlanta is willing to pay either significant cash or talent just to get rid of Lowe, he might be a bargain.

by Gopherballs on Oct 4, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I do think Lowe is interesting

on his own if the Braves eat at least 9-10 million and only want a C prospect in return.

If Dayton used a willingness to take on most or all of Lowe’s 15 million to sweeten an offer for Beachy or Minor, good for him. But if Scott is right and Wil Myers would still be needed to make it happen, I don’t think it’s a smart move.

by thelaundry on Oct 4, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even without the Dayton connection

I think the Braves might be a bad fit in terms of their needs. They need position players and offense – they would probably target Moustakas and/or Myers as the centerpiece for one of their young SPs.

I am more in favor of going for a solid middle rotation guy instead of a major deal for a potential frontline SP. If a frontline guy can be had with Odorizzi as the main piece that might make sense – take a guy who is good now for someone who might be good in 2 years.

by thelaundry on Oct 4, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wandy is 33 (i believe) and has peaked as far as skills go. However Bud Norris

could be a good pick up (read: pre-arbitration and many yrs till FA) that could be gotten relatively cheap from a team that is is just beginning to completely rebuild.

by DickHowser4ever on Oct 4, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Norris would be a great pickup

Which is why he won’t be relatively cheap and probably won’t be available at all.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 4, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

you think it'd still take myers?

even if we took on the entire contract? this is the kind of trade DM should make if he makes one. while we have alot of good prospects still….we also have money to burn…which unlike the prospects wont mortgage the future

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 4, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

It depends on how desperate the Braves are to dump salary

I really don’t know their financial situation, but unless it is dire, I doubt they’d dump a cheap, young, very good SP to facillitate getting rid of Lowe and his salary. I would think that the Braves wouldn’t trade Beachy or Minor without getting a top 50 prospect back in return, even if the team takes Lowe and his contract along with.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

i remember hearing that they need to drop salary quite a bit...

but who knows if its desperate or not. they have an abundance of SP…the best way for them to acquire a bat would be to drop lowe’s 15 M salary, trade their 6 or 7th SP and spend big on a bat in FA

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 4, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hopefully Dayton will try it

I’d be willing to trade Dwyer and a throw-in for Beachy or Minor and Lowe. If it could be done for less than Dwyer, so much the better.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

colon? adam? ventura?

those are the types of guys i’d be willing to trade…possibly even two of them

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 4, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's kinda my thinking...

and Lowe was much better than his ERA. Might not be a bad one-year situation to him in the rotation. I just have a feeling Atlanta would like to dump Lowe’s salary and make room for all their other young pitching. If Minor or Beachy is the other pitcher, then I wouldn’t mind Myers going. If it were Jurrjens and Lowe, I will be pissed.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Oct 4, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Moore trade Myers, Odorizzi and Ventura for Jurrjens, Lowe and $2M.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

George Brett just crapped his pants

Actually, they should make any potential acquisition pitch to George to find their guy. How they’ll actually decide? A long dinner with Francoeur by candlelight, gazing into his eyes.

by thelaundry on Oct 4, 2011 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

What would it take

If we replaced Lowe with Beachy? Would that trade be sufficient and would the Braves want to get rid of 2 young starters?

Rotation with those 2 guys would be sweet. I don’t think Jurrjens would be terrible.

by vic1124 on Oct 5, 2011 4:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Braves would probably want Myers and Odorizzi for Beachy straight up

that’s off the top of my head… but yeah, that’ not going to happen

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Oct 5, 2011 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Love me some Brandon Beachy

yeah, I know, I’m probably totally alone in that respect

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Oct 4, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll join you there.

A 24 year old starting pitcher throwing 10+ K/9 in the majors…

I suppose I could be interested in…such things.

by dejezeus on Oct 4, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like him, too.

I am somewhat curious as to why tool-hounds don’t seem so high on him.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Oct 6, 2011 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it’s interesting. He was never a top 100 prospect despite good stats. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but it is effective. Scouting reports usually describe his fastball as pretty good but not great (good movement and control, but average velocity). He has a good changeup and bad curveball. It seems like he’s added an effective slider this year that he either didn’t throw before or it just wasn’t any good before.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 7, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

the most likely reason....

is that he was never drafted. Scouts have a hard time letting that go…..Throwing Collins in there, what other team in recent history has had better results uncovering gems from non drafted American players than Atlanta?

by dooblay on Oct 8, 2011 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good post;

I hope you do this for the other targeted SPs in the coming weeks.

by Royalron on Oct 4, 2011 10:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks. I have a whole list from here:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/9/20/2437740/jeffs-off-season-at-royalsreview

I plan on doing the internal options also.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 4, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Will,

you misspelled ever. Correct spelling should be

EVA

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Oct 4, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

A minor league deal?

The guy had one of the best ERAs in the NL! There are probably a dozen teams, including us, that would gladly trade for a guy like Jurrjens and seek to extend him. The injury issues are there, but he’s proven he can pitch with lower velocity than he showed his first two years in the league. While true that his xFIP is much higher, this doesn’t make him a “minor league contract” candidate. The Braves are most likely counting on him as their number 3ish starter going into next year with one of the better rotations in baseball.

As for your conclusion, I don’t think he’s the best trade target either, but I don’t think you give Jair the credit he deserves.

Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Oct 4, 2011 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

The other thing to note is that only his rookie season contained an ARM injury

the rest may be nagging and maybe that he’s just kind of a habitually “hurt” guy.

Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Oct 4, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't dislike him as others seem to

But I don’t think he’s really a frontline starter and I certainly would not be willing to part with the prospects necessary to acquire a frontline starter.

But is he an upgrade over what we have? I think so.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 4, 2011 11:33 AM EDT reply actions  

how dare you

Luis Mendoza has totally figured it out

by Freneau on Oct 4, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

If we could land him for a package NOT involving Myers, Montgomery, or Odorizzi

then I’d be in favor. But I don’t think he’s “the answer” and we shouldn’t give up any of those three prospects to get him.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 4, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ewwww that 2011 Groundball rate

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by Lum on Oct 4, 2011 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

and the rest of them are pretty bad too. 2009!

SBN's most random and mysterious lurker guy who posts too much
Follow me on Twitter if you want: Lum_SM

by Lum on Oct 4, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

The listed groundball rates might be a mistake

Fangraphs has Jurrjens as:
2007 38.1%
2008 51.5%
2009 42.9%
2010 39.9%
2011 42.0%
career: 44.4%

That would make him about average, not the NL version of Kevin Slowey.

by Gopherballs on Oct 4, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pass

In addition to the points made above, Jurrjens has been helped by pitching in the NL where he gets to fact the pitcher’s slot every few innings, and pitching in Atlanta has helped keep his home run per fly ball rate lower than expected. He barely maintains a 2.0 K/BB rate while facing pitchers, and does not get enough groundballs to make up for it. If he was free, sure, but he would not be worth the cost to acquire him.

by Gopherballs on Oct 4, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I know this is OT but since this is at least partly a Bubba Starling blog...

Did you see he hit a home run and had 4 RBIs last night? I saw this on the Omaha Storm Chasers FB update. Not sure where else to get raw news on this though. Anyone have a link?

by Jonnyt5050 on Oct 4, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I read somewhere that they don't keep stats in the league he's playing in

Sounds weird, but I think they just want to give guys a chance to get on the field against quality opposition.

by Loose Seal on Oct 4, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I read that somewhere too.

That having been said… glad to see he’s getting in some good swings. Maybe we’ll see him in 2-3 years. What’s the over/under on when he suits up in a Royals uni?

by Jonnyt5050 on Oct 4, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I should have read that before posting it.

That roundup was posted five years ago, so don’t bother going there… unless you just want to see Clayton Kershaw and Jeremy Jeffress mentioned in the same sentence.

by kcemigre on Oct 4, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the text copied from their FB post:

“Bubba Starling went 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI yesterday in instructional league ball in Surprise, Arizona. In his previous game (Friday) he went 2-for-3 with a double, stolen base, two RBI and a run scored.”

by Jonnyt5050 on Oct 4, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

BUBBA NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Oct 4, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Jair" is apparently a biblical name

243 babies in the U.S. were named Jair last year. Is this a more popular first name in other parts of the world (such as the Netherlands, where he was born)?

Pronounced: jy-ər jur-jənz;

I’ll give you 50 guesses as to what his brother’s first name is…. Wrong, it’s

Carl

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 4, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Aw, man...

…that was gonna be my first guess.

by kcemigre on Oct 4, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Xarl

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Oct 4, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Karle

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Oct 4, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kris Medlen would be a better, Paulino-like target

He is underrated to begin with and coming off an injury, so the asking price should relatively low. He can miss some bats, has a good changeup to keep lefties honest, and would be under club control for four more years (all arbitration years likely).

by Gopherballs on Oct 4, 2011 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm concerned that Medlen's walk rate wouldn't fit into the Royals ethos

it was getting there in 2009, but it really fell off a cliff in 2010.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Oct 4, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

NO NO NO

We can do better than this.

This guy simply does not strike out enough batters to be much more successful than what we already have available on our roster.

If they can’t bring in a guy (or two) who is CLEARLY superior to internal options, then I think they should simply stand pat and wait for 2013, when maybe there are more readily available upgrades, or when the internal options are closer to being in full bloom.

If strikeouts are indeed fascist - then find me some starters that believe in fascism

by loyal2sdad on Oct 4, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I could waste more words here

but it looks like there’s a consensus here.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Oct 4, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

James Shields

There was a rumor going around that the Rays were willing to talk with the Royals about a deal for Shields. Or was that “just” a rumor?

by R_F on Oct 4, 2011 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm sure they've had talks

There has been too much smoke. Will a deal get dealt? We’ll see.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 4, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we match up with Texas better,

etc.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Oct 4, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

I belong to scout from RC, let me get some highlights (besides them wonder who the "f" I am)
lol….he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half. The only issue with him is staying healthy, if he’s healthy he’s at worst a #2 pitcher on a staff. KC doesn’t have anyone as good as him.

That’s cool though, we’ll just keep him or trade him to a team that understands his true value.
This, if you want to argue that the Royals have high ceiling guys who can be better maybe you’re right, but considering their 2012 rotation is likely to include Chen, Hochevar, and Felipe Paulino. Jurrjens would actually be a great addition for the Royals as far as type cause you can slot him between Montgomery and Duffy who’re they’re versions of Julio and Minor. and break up their young lefties.

I love how their GM is saying they’d trade top prospects for MLB pitching, but a blogger says that JJ isn’t better than their pitchers. A guy who was in the Cy Young discussion for half of this year and in 2009.
This guys comments are a joke. That being said, with his injury history I doubt J.J. has much trade value. Would be best to keep him and see if he can pitch an entire year.
In the comment section of this link alot of Royals fans seemed open to the idea of taking on Lowe’s salary in order to get one of Beachy or Minor. They even seemed like they would throw in a pretty strong prospect. How about Minor, Lowe, and 7 mil$ for Wil Meyers??

I like Minor, but we could afford to lose him if it meant getting rid of half of Lowe’s salary and getting a solid prospect who could take over for Prado in LF after next year…
His value is down but he should net solid prospects. Not that this is a perfect example, but the D-Backs traded Haren with 2.3-3.3 seasons on his contract and owed abotu 31.5 to 43.5 million (depending on option) they got Skaggs, Saunders, a meh reliever and an ok pitchign prospect. JJ isn’t as good as Haren, and he won’t be under contract as long, but he’s also much cheaper.

For JJ we should be able to get a top 50 prospect and a solid prospect. Brett Jackson is actually pretty good idea.
Might be a bit premature on Myers. No doubt he is an elite prospect but didnt he just finish low A in the SAL????

One of our young starters while new to the game is still more proven than Myers at this time.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 4, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yikes

At least a few comments sound somewhat reasonable.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 4, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are literally a few posters at Royals Corner that are somewhat reasonable

The rest are either ignorant, stupid or batshit crazy. Ok, this was hyperbole, but there is an underlying truth there.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yahoo Is A

Bastion of reason

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 4, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

This may well be true...
if he’s healthy he’s at worst a #2 pitcher on a staff

But we all know what that really means.

I dunno – If they really think a top-50 prospect is all they want, I think I’d trade Monty for him straight up.

Nick Swisher is handsome.

by ChrisCEIT on Oct 4, 2011 5:47 PM EDT reply actions  

My big question is

How much velo did he lose due to the lower body injuries? And of course, will he stay healthy is the other question. The guy is able to pitch with below average MLB velo but will he gain some back as his hammy, obliques, and knee return to 100% strength? I would think he does. Not back to 93-94… but 91-92

by 306008 on Oct 5, 2011 1:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I am not sure.

I don’t like how he has all the nagging stuff. Points that he doesn’t really take care of him self.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 5, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Calling Coach Feb

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 5, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

None, actually.

His dip in velocity is not due to injury, but to a sinker variation he learned from Venters. That and pitching instead of throwing. He’s absolutely a pitch-to-contact guy at this point. It’s all intended.

There are a few stories from the beginning of the year that delve into this a little more, and I’ll link them if I can find some time to dig them up later.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Oct 7, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jurrjens finds success with Venters’ grip

8:08 pm May 13, 2011, by Carroll Rogers

In his second game back from an oblique injury, Jair Jurrjens added a new twist to his sinker – a Jonny Venters-style grip.

Venters has earned the admiration of the rest of the Braves pitching staff over the past year for his 94-95 mph sinker from the left-hand side, which baffles hitters.

So Jurrjens, who felt like his fastball was flattening out, asked Venters about his grip in batting practice one day. Venters holds the two-seam fastball with his index and middle finger between the two seams. Jurrjens held his two fingers split in a more traditional position on the seams.

Jurrjens said he tried the new grip in a couple of bullpens, then debuted it against the Dodgers in LA. He gave up one run in six innings in that game and has been using it since.

"It’s sinking more, going down," Jurrjens said. "The other one was running."

Jurrjens is 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts since returning from the disabled list. He’s looking for his second win in a row against the Phillies Saturday.

Not that Venters thinks he has much to do with it.

"I’m going to take all the credit for his success," Venters said with a smile.
Before plotting where Jurrjens’ velocity has stood at certain points this season, it should be reiterated that his velocity has been down all season. But while he posted a 1.87 ERA through his first 16 starts, scouts and talent evaluators saw him create greater movement with his pitches.

That’s from a Bowman blog, although he tends to think the velocity drop was caused by something other than Jurrjens’ intention to pitch rather than throw. But he was using hindsight as much as anything, before it had become apparent the knee was an issue.

Another interesting article breaks down the tendency to pitch to contact: http://chop-n-change.com/2011-articles/may/looking-at-jurrjens-early-season-success.html .

And a fangraphs article to round it out: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jair-jurrjens-slower-fastball-better-results/

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Oct 7, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

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