Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Edwin Jackson

Name: Edwin Jackson, 28 year old RHP with the Cardinals

Contract: Free Agent at the end of season.  Made 4.2M in 2010 and 8.35M in 2011.  He eould probably be looking for a 3-5 year deal. I don't see many teams offering him more than 3 years. He has averaged over 3.5 WAR over the last 3 years. Assuming 5M per WAR, he could be looking for at least $45M/3 year deal (3 WAR talent over the 3 years). If he is a 2.5 WAR pitcher (3/2.5/2 WAR), the 3 year contract would be 37.5M.  


Fastballs: Used 55% to 65% - He has both a 4 finger and 2 finger fastball.  He is using it less in recently. It consistently averages around 94.5MPH.

Slider: Used around 25% of the time until 2011, when he began to use it 40% of the time. The White Sox noticed it was his most effective pitch and got him throwing it more.

Change Up: Used 10% of the time

Curve: Used it 2.5% of the time until 2011 when he ditched it completely. 

Here is is usage patter over the last few years:




2006 Devil Rays 23 1 36.1 6.7 6.2 0.5 0.336 52% 5.4% 5.45 4.52 5.24 0.2
2007 Devil Rays 32 31 161.0 7.2 4.9 1.1 0.341 45% 10.2% 5.76 4.90 4.82 1.5
2008 Rays 32 31 183.1 5.3 3.8 1.1 0.302 39% 9.6% 4.42 4.88 4.97 1.3
2009 Tigers 33 33 214.0 6.8 2.9 1.1 0.276 39% 9.9% 3.62 4.28 4.32 3.6
2010 2 Teams 32 32 209.1 7.8 3.4 0.9 0.313 49% 10.6% 4.47 3.86 3.71 3.8
2011 2 Teams 32 31 199.2 6.7 2.8 0.7 0.330 44% 8.2% 3.79 3.55 3.73 3.8

He looks to have a K/9 in the upper 6's with a BB/9 round 3.0.  He keeps the ball in the ball park at a league average rate. His talent looks to be be a bit better than any other starter on the Royals except possibly Paulino.

Injury History:

2004: Forearm injury (missed 53 games)

2006: Head injury (missed 7 games)

His injury history is close to perfect.  One big red flag I have is his increase use of the slider. There is some work done that high slider usage leads to an increase injury risk.


He would be an improvement over the current Royals starting pitchers.  He would eat up a ton of innings and gives consistent production over the years. His price, IMO, is probably a little too high for the Royals to afford.  I would probably max out a $36M/3 contract for him. With the lack of SP in the FA market, I think he will go for much more.


Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets:

Jair Jurrjens

Wandy Rodiguez

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