Tuesday Royals Links: Gio, Lough, Gold Gloves, La Russa, and Pinker

by Freneau on Nov 1, 2011 3:00 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

Baseball stopped... really stopped, for about a day. Now, we're fully in off-season hot stove mode. TLR has retired, guys are becoming free agents (including Grady Sizemore) and trades are being made. In the Grab Bag, there's links to happy thoughts on your other local teams, both playing football.

Royals:

Baseball:

Tony La Russa, St. Louis Cardinals Manager (1996-2011) - Viva El Birdos

La Russa one of top five managers all time - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Grab Bag:

Tweet Comment 37 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

That '87 Twins team was one of the worst ever I have seen win a World Series

Until the next year when the Dodgers won it. Combine the Dodgers pitching staff with the Twins lineup and you’d have a great champ. Combine the Twins pitching staff with the Dodgers lineup and you’d have a 100 loss club.

Surprised the ‘06 Cards didn’t make that “elite club.”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 1, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions

06 Cards

allowed 4.7, NL average was 4.8. They scored 4.9. And now you know.

Twitter | Royal Heritage | I70 Baseball

by KCAaron on Nov 1, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

In case you are wondering if baseball understands the relative value of player performance

please check out the Royals nominees for the MLB’s all-important GIBBY awards, particularly the breakout and defensive players of the year nominations.

Maybe highlight that link next time you get upset at Will for being “too negative” about the media attention about certain players.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 1, 2011 10:30 AM EDT reply actions

Awful.

Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan

by Old Man Duggan on Nov 1, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Melky

by Freneau on Nov 1, 2011 11:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Francoeur = Defensive wizard

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 1, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

How does a 1B make the defensive list.

Thanks for making me dumber Matt.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 1, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Melky is breaking out

BFIB

by tiquanunderwear on Nov 1, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

with what?

Hives?

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 1, 2011 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

No, That's DDJ

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 2, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't get it

Was Melky not good this season or did we know he was going to be this good? It seems like posting more WAR in one year than the cumulative total of his 6-year career up to this point is pretty much the achetype of a breakout season.

Or is it just reflexive opposition to anything positive about Melky?

by KSinDC on Nov 1, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

i think its a reaction to alex gordon not being nominated

by BeauJackson on Nov 1, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought it was that I kinda thought Alex Gordon being one of the most valuable players in baseball his season (and by most measures at least as v

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 1, 2011 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I thought it was that I kinda thought Alex Gordon being one of the most valuable players in baseball his season (and by most measures at least as valuable as Melky and Frenchy combined) after being pretty much left for dead was obviously more impressive.

However, your outstanding virtual psychological deduction has made me realize that it was all about my biases. Thank you for helping me be a better person.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 1, 2011 5:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Surely "breakout player" requires some analysis of what you've done up til now

Gordon had been an above average player in each of two previous full MLB seasons. None of the other position players nominated have ever posted a league-average season by fWAR. Melky had never been an MLB average player in five full MLB seasons. (Several of the pitchers had been very good before, even by ERA, so I don’t know what they’re doing on the pitcher side)

I don’t actually care about these awards (I’ve never heard of them), but it would be nice if Gordon was nominated for most valuable player. However, I don’t see the injustice in Melky getting a nod for breakout player. I don’t see why Gordon should have been eligible, and Melky blew away the projections.

by KSinDC on Nov 1, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

From June 2007

To the end of the 2008 season, Gordon was an above average player. Add 2011 to those stats and he is a .280/.342/.467 corner player. 2011 was hardly a breakout; you are correct, sir.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 2, 2011 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions

how is slightly above average over your chosen sample size to 7 wins in one season not a fucking breakout?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Nov 3, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Should Jacoby Ellsbury be the breakout player of the year?

To me, breakout player means somebody who’s been below average for years finally putting it all together and having a significantly above-average year. At least with respect to the position players, they seem to have something similar in mind since none of the candidates have ever posted a league-average year.

by KSinDC on Nov 3, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess I should just give in and enjoy the blatant trolling

the term “breakout” is obviously meaningless in any useful sense. My irritation was simply that Gordon was not recognized anywhere despite being one of he best players in baseball, while Melky and Francouer were. I guess “common usage” is as good or better a criterion as any, and both royals.com and the kc press have used the word “breakout” with reference to Gordon at various times this season.

But let’s look at the criteria you mention in passing, anyway. I’ll use fWAR for simplicity.

It seems like posting more WAR in one year than the cumulative total of his 6-year career up to this point is pretty much the achetype of a breakout season.

Melky 2011 :4.2 WAR, Melky pre-2011: 2.6 WAR. Difference: 1.6
Gordon 2011: 6.9 WAR, Gordon pre-2011: 4.9 WAR. Difference: 2.0

Melky had never been an MLB average player in five full MLB seasons.

Actually, we was average in 2006, and close to it in 2009. Gordon was above average in 2007 and 2008, but just a bit, and the difference is hardly enough to base anything on, particularly given the uncertainty and error inherent in WAR.

I don’t see why Gordon should have been eligible,

What would eligibility mean? The subjective evaluation of sportswriters? We’ve covered that. The average/cumulative thing.. yeah, Gordon has as good or better credentials than Melky in that regard, too.

and Melky blew away the projections.

What projections? I think I had Melky at something like 0.5 WAR prior to the seaso. He outplayed that by fWAR according to fWAR. (. I had Gordon at around 2.0… his fWAR was 4.9 higher than that.

Melky had a great year, and I’m happy for him. Gordon has as good or better “qualifications” for this B.S. award as well as the MVP award (and also has better a better case on defense than ~~JoGui~~ Francoeur), and their presence just highlighted how Gordon’s season has been ignored, since if they’d just left Royals off entirely we could just say “they don’t care about the Royals.”

But you’re right, I’m probably just a “lamestream blogger” who is biased against Melky’s big year. Everyone pretty much knew Alex was going to have a seven-win performance.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 2, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't understand why you get so worked up about this

Has anyone ever called you a “lamestream blogger?” Why is that in quotes?

Alex got a Gold Glove. He got Royals MVP. I hope he gets votes for AL MVP. He deserves more credit than he’s gotten but that gap has been closing, especially this week. Hopefully, the team will soon give the ultimate recognition in the form of long-term contract. Does any of that mitigate the frustration you feel?

I guess you’re mad at the Royals TV crew. I don’t listen to the audio, so I don’t know what they say, but it sounds like it’s pretty objectionable. Maybe I’d feel the same way and post the nominations to some obscure awards out of a sense of injustice if I listened, but I don’t so it just seems odd.

by KSinDC on Nov 2, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I wasn't all that worked up originally, it was an irritation that was worth posting in a links thing

I’m more irritated by your claims of “bias” on the basis of “facts,” that don’t actually support whatever case you are trying to make here.

I shouldn’t get that worked up about it — it’s just the internet, after all. On the other hand, perhaps I can suggest that you don’t need to glean comments and posts for “bias” if they rub you the wrong way like a hall monitor or Ronald Reagan press secretary.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 3, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't really understand your use of quotation marks

And I’m surprised that “is it just reflexive opposition to anything positive about Melky?” was that inflammatory. I don’t think it’s an uncommon perception or uncommon comment on this board.

And considering that your comment was meant to defend Will’s position that some people find “too negative” I think it’s laughable that you take offense that somebody would find your position too negative.

As for the rest of it, I don’t think I misrepesented the facts. You’re adjusting for playing time. I’m using full season numbers as they are. Neither is right or wrong. Gordon has been a far better player than Melky (don’t know why you’d use career WAR instead of WAR/season), and at least some people believe that breakout player implies that prior performance must be below a certain level, and that threshold may make Gordon ineligible. I’ll let other people be the judge of the merits.

by KSinDC on Nov 3, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

i think gordon, ellsbury, and avila should have been the AL hitting nominees

those guys have yet to consistently perform at the level they did this year, so i think they fit the idea of “breakout” player. the idea that someone can’t breakout because they were average before doesn’t work for me. going from average to elite is very significant.

by BeauJackson on Nov 3, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

That's a reasonable position

I guess not everybody thinks prior performance should be taken into account, but it makes sense that, among those who do, the use of that prior performance would vary.

Would you say Matt Kemp should be a NL nominee? He’d already posted 127 and 131 wRC+ years, but this year he blew all the way up to 171 wRC+. My sense is that he was already an established star, but that’s a gigantic increase. What’s your sense? (Just trying to get a better sense of how you read these things)

by KSinDC on Nov 3, 2011 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Kemp had a jump from 3.5 to 5.2 before, so I would say he's out

In the NL, I’d probably look at Morse, Maybin, and Victorino. Victorino might seem an odd choice, but he’s a 3.67 WAR/162 player for his career, and that jumped to 7.24 this season. Probably would go with Morse for from nothing to above average player though.

by BeauJackson on Nov 3, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm done with this

But just so you don’t think I’m accusing you of anything like, I don’t think you misrepresented the facts, I think you either didn’t look them up (which is no big deal in a comment) or maybe didn’t understand the relationship of WAR and league average in Melky’s case.

All the “criteria” I took directly from your prior comments.

If someone thingk I’m wrong about something causing me to be too negative, fine, let’s discuss that. I’m not offended by that.

If someone says that I am biased (“reflexive opposition to anything positive about Melky”), which I take implies that I am blinded by something or perhaps deliberately distorting something or being unfair on purpose, or something like that, well, that’s different.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 3, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

"(don’t know why you’d use career WAR instead of WAR/season)"

It seems like posting more WAR in one year than the cumulative total of his 6-year career up to this point is pretty much the achetype of a breakout season.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Nov 3, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I also hope that this is resolved

I still don’t quite fully grasp the distinction between “too negative” and “biased,” so I can’t guarantee I won’t slip up again, but I will try harder in the future to make clear that I don’t think you’re deliberately distorting something or purposefully misrepresenting the data.

And I don’t take issues with any of the “criteria” (again with the quotes?) used. When I first looked up the numbers, I saw that Melky’s WAR had never reached league average (and my understanding was and still is that the WAR system is calibrated so that 2.0 WAR over a full season is league average — is that mistaken?). You replied, as I understand it, that Melky’s production in two years had been at or near a league average rate. I used the counting stat; you used the rate stat. I don’t think either one is necessarily right, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that the facts “don’t actually support” that “Melky had never been a league average player in five full seasons.” The counting stat WAR, which I based off of, does support that.

Finally, I now understand why you used career WAR instead of WAR/season, but I think it’s clear that there has to be some adjustment for the amount of time played. It’s always going to be easier to surpass a 1- or 2-year cumulative total than a 5- or 6-year cumulative total, but, having said that, I was still surprised that Alex surpassed his by more, so I’m glad you posted it.

I like Alex. I’m glad he’s a Royal. I think he should get more credit. I’m also thrilled with all the praise Melky and Frenchy are getting, as long as people don’t say that they’re better players than Alex. To my mind, Alex wouldn’t have been eligible for this award so putting Melky on there is no slight to Alex.

by KSinDC on Nov 3, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions