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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

So the Red Sox need a closer? Or is it Bard? I could see a scenario where Bob McClure (new Red Sox hybrid scout/advisor) and some other former GM from KC named Allard might want to bring him in. But that's speculating.

7 months ago Bsnublcd_tiny 306008 41 comments 0 recs  | 

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My knee jerk reaction is this is a bad move.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354

by averagegatsby on Nov 11, 2011 3:00 PM EST reply actions  

More like is Pap worth this?
2:13pm: Jayson Stark of ESPN.com hears the deal includes a vesting option that could bring the total value of the contract over $60MM (Twitter link).

1:42pm: The sides have agreed to a four-year deal that approaches $50MM in value, according to Salisbury (on Twitter).

Call me crazy but the deal we have Soria under has to look good to someone as long as he returns to form. Talk about over valuing the save stat… $50MM for 4 years? I’m assuming if he hits the vesting option the value goes to over $15 M a year on average?

by 306008 on Nov 11, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

includes a vesting option for 2016

So they are gambling on 5 years of Papelbon.

by 306008 on Nov 11, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions  

wasn

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 11, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

crap, reply fail

wasn’t he less than stellar this year?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 11, 2011 3:49 PM EST up reply actions  

He had a good year

54 IP and a WHIP of under 1. 87 K’s… just had a few BS this year.

by 306008 on Nov 11, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He had a very good year

12.2 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, xFIP 2.16

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 11, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

On one hand

if the deal is 4 years/$50 million, the Phillies are basically paying him to post 2.5 WAR each year for the next four years. In his career, Papelbon has averaged almost exactly 2.5 WAR per year (2.45 to be precise, excluding his short callup in 2005).

On the other hand, closers and relievers rarely stay both healthy and effective for four years in a row. Take a look at the 2008 leaderboard for relievers, either by WAR or saves. Out of the couple dozen pitchers are those lists, the only ones that remained consistently healthy and effective are Rivera, Papelbon, Thornton, and then probably Soria and Brian Wilson depending on how much slack they get for their 2011 seasons. Papelbon is one of those guys, but then look at a list of closers and relievers who have done that for 10 years in recent history (which is what the Phillies are banking on Papelbon to do by giving him four years), and the list is basically Rivera, Hoffman, and maybe Billy Wagner.

by Gopherballs on Nov 11, 2011 3:39 PM EST reply actions  

Looks like the Red Sox will get the Phillies 31st overall pick plus a Type A compensation pick in the Supplemental 1st round… so #31 and #32?

Are those 1A picks doled out in order of signing or some type of secret formula?

by 306008 on Nov 11, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

I think it's based on the previous year's record/final standings

From wikipedia:

The order of the supplemental round between the first and second rounds is determined by inverse order of the previous year’s standings. All the Type A picks are done first, and then the order resets for all the Type B compensation picks.

by Loose Seal on Nov 11, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

It is.

I just threw that out there. There was also an unsigned first rounder that would whatever pick back a pick.

by 306008 on Nov 11, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

awesome, another reason to despise the phillies.

"On the last day of your life, don't forget to die."

- David Berman

by Crooow on Nov 11, 2011 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

i have a hard time understanding the phillies hate

they had a group of guys from their system come together at the right time and have done whatever it takes to give that nucleus a shot to win while the window is open. also haven’t had any loathsome players involved until today.

by BeauJackson on Nov 11, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't like them because the keep winning despite handing out awful contracts

Howard, Lidge, Ibanez and now this. Just don’t know why they can’t use this money to resign Rollins. They had Madsen ready to replace Lidge, you would think they would see the mistake that a big money close is.

by Royal Tiger on Nov 11, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Their fans are the worst

(yes, worse than Boston and New York)

by Loose Seal on Nov 11, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed.

My main reason for hatred is that an ex-boss of mine, probably the most horrible person I’ve ever known, was a huge fan.

"On the last day of your life, don't forget to die."

- David Berman

by Crooow on Nov 11, 2011 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

That sign makes me want to set fire to puppies

If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down
-Gin Blossoms

by royaldaddy on Nov 12, 2011 1:06 AM EST up reply actions  

seriously

do they not realize that calling yourself “best fans in baseball” is like indicator #1 that you are NOT the “best fans in baseball”?

Seriously.

"On the last day of your life, don't forget to die."

- David Berman

by Crooow on Nov 12, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I wonder if Allard is going to get another shot

He interviewed but didn’t get the O’s job as has been discussed. Wonder if any team ever takes a flyer on ole Allard.

by Tito42 on Nov 12, 2011 12:59 AM EST reply actions  

I Hope Papelbon

Incurs a nagging injury doing his Riverdance.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 12, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

the phillies are actually going to move up in the 1st round with this signing

they’ll get the first round pick of whoever signs madson. they had the #31 and last pick in the 1st round, so they’ll be higher then they would’ve been. also will get a sandwich pick. so by letting madson go and signing papelbon, they’ll move up in the draft and gain an extra draft pick. makes absolutely no sense that it works like that, but whatever.

by BeauJackson on Nov 12, 2011 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

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