Baseball Prospectus: KC Top 11 Prospects
Interesting top 11 from Kevin Goldstein, with some surprises this year. I guess it's time to take Bonifacio seriously as a prospect. That's Sickels and Goldstein now who are high on him.
6 months ago
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what does he say about Bonifacio?
Since I’m not a subscriber, I’ll I can see is his write-up on Myers. Anything else interesting in there?
Not a subscriber either
I’d be interested in the write ups on Bonifacio, Ventura, and Adam in particular. Was a bit surprised Monty was that low. Not shocked to see Colon drop out of the top 11.
send me an email if you want to read them all.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Profile
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
I already don't like Bonifacio. He was born after I graduated HS.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've struggled with this recently too.
When I realized the only guy on the Royals roster my age was HWSNBD.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Nov 18, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
He and I are only a few months apart in age.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Me too.
It was a hell of a revelation that I was now one of THOSE guys.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Nov 18, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Too Much Fucking
Perspective.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 20, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Also surprised about Monty
I expected his stock to drop, but not where Odorizzi would be a 4 star and Monty a 3 star. I thought their relative ceilings would make their ratings just the opposite, or at least equal.
Goldstein has been very pro Royals farm for a while now, and Rany has attributed his “we’re closer than we thought, go for it” stance in part to Goldstein’s raves about Royals prospects.
I was also
Monty has better stuff than Odorizzi. Much better. Monty’s stuff is the best in the organization. It all has to do with stats and command. We’ll end up seeing I guess… I’d have MM first in the pitchers list and Lamb second.
Montgomery must be thinking...
‘Gee, I wish I would have had Tommy John surgery and passed UP people like me in the rankings the way Lamb did, rather than cut my teeth in a AAA band-box league and watch my star tarnish’, though I’m sure he could care less about these rankings.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Nov 18, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
KG had Lamb ranked higher than Montgomery last season too
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Nov 18, 2011 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
If two scouts cannot agree
I think we have throw all scouting information out the window
If this kind of data has this much variance, what use is it?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Is Bonifacio's first name "Joey"?
That would be cool.
"Shot by my own men."
Only if Trey Hillman is re-hired.
by WURoyal on Nov 18, 2011 5:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Wow, he really took a dump on Monty
Doesn’t like Myers defensive range or range potential either. Didn’t know Myers had below average speed. I thought everyone said he was tremendously athletic. What does that mean? That he’s in good shape, but slow?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 11:13 AM EST reply actions
The Monty thing was the most surprising I think
Can’t seem to remember what I’ve heard about Myers’ speed. Maybe it was “he’s fast for a catcher” which would make 40-45 speed seem reasonable. I guess that’s probably about the minimum you’d like to see out of a corner OF though.
KG is also pretty high on Adam and Ventura, which is nice because they didn’t have particularly impressive years.
I watched Lance Berkman running around with his 25 speed in the WS
It really doesn’t mean anything if he can crush.
I'm not buying that
Until I see him healthy for a whole season. A year ago he was still technically a catcher, and I would like to at least give him another offseason to adapt to OF defensively and in his workouts and training before I accept that he’s slow or unathletic.
A year ago he was still technically a catcher, and I would like to at least give him another offseason to adapt to OF defensively and in his workouts and training before I accept that he’s slow or unathletic.
But what does having been a catcher, or being in a new position have to do with him being slow or unathetlic? His speed and athleticism are what they are, regardless of which position he’s playing. When a player gets a 40-45 grade for speed, that isn’t relative to position. That’s supposed to be an absolute grade. Now, Goldstein might be the only prospect evaluator who thinks that Myers speed is below average. I don’t know. But if his speed is below average, more seasoning as an OFer isn’t going to make him faster.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
i'd have to wonder to what extent the knee injury would have affected that
he was fast enough for the royals to give him some time in center this year. that’d probably say a lot more if this wasn’t the organization that simultaneously put melky cabrera out in center every night.
I can’t remember but wasn’t the “knee injury” just some kind of infection and nothing mechanical like a ligament, tendon or muscle problem? If so, I wouldn’t think that would affect speed at all once it was cleared up and he was back on the field.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
oh, i don't know enough about what was wrong with him
or about what will necessarily slow a player down. maybe they put him in center because it’s easier than the corners (as he’s still early in the learning process) as far as ball judgement goes. all of this is just speculation by me.
He is heavy down low
Big rear end. Built to hit, not to run.
by WestCoastRoyal on Nov 18, 2011 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
And Moustakas doesn't look like he'd have much range as an outfielder either.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
It is true that they said that about Moose,
but they have pretty different body types in the end. We’ll see if Myers is an average runner or what, but at the time he was drafted he was considered to be a better athlete than Moose or Hos.
But changing the way he trains might
Different physical demands, different workout routines. So maybe he ends up being a corner OF with a pretty good arm and average to below average range. He’ll fit right in in KC.
P90X FTW!!!!!!!1111111!!!!!!!1111111
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 20, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
P-Frenchy-X
They train together. Frenchy shows Wil what it’s like to be a ML RF with an above average arm and below average range, and Wil shows French how to take a pitch once in a f@#$%&g while.
his write-up didn't seem to be overly negative
but i was a little surprised by the drop below lamb considering the injury
"Myers is fast" might be residue from his prep scouting reports and from when he was a catcher
As mentioned with Hosmer, guys naturally fill out after their teens, especially bigger guys like Myers (6’3, 200+ lbs).
by Gopherballs on Nov 18, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Myers isn't slow its probably average he looked like he thinned down through his hips
when I saw him in AZ a month ago or so. He told me he hadn’t changed his workout routine but he looked thinner in the hips and legs to me
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I think the Royals need to trade for Brett Wallace to get some thighs in the org
I don’t say this very often, but OMG
Side note: apologies to anyone who has read this joke when I made it on Twitter, but the rumor that Cleveland is concerned that LaPorta won’t hit and so they are interested in Wallace is hilarious to me.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 18, 2011 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm OK with the joke so nice you told it twice.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Nov 18, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Then I wonder why many around here were saying that Myers corner OF defense should end up being good or even average “because he’s so athletic.” With regard to raw physical gifts and their impact on potential OF defensive abilities, speed is the key. I don’t think we were thinking or talking enough about his speed. I just looked up his entry in the 2011 BA Prospect Handbook, and all they said was that his speed and athleticism was “better than most catchers.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Because they read that he was athletic when he was drafted.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
For me, I heard CF and the Dale Murphy comps (he belongs in the hall)
and assumed he was superior athlete. I remember someone (Schaum?) saying that Myers was too athletic to stay at C.
With regard to raw physical gifts and their impact on potential OF defensive abilities, speed is the key.
I think that’s incorrect. Speed is helpful, but “athleticism” is critical. If you were switching a player’s defensive position you’d much rather have a great athlete without great speed than a really fast player without great athleticism.
by billexgordler on Nov 19, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Nice top 11 still. Should still be in the top 3-4 farm systems.
I read early on that Elier was a CF prospect. Does he project more to a corner now? Body too big, not fast enough, too much power?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Nov 18, 2011 11:16 AM EST reply actions
I did pretty well comparing mine at PTP
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Was going to mention that
Your list was very close to KG’s. In particular, he’s also high on both Adam and Ventura.
Quick questions
Is Jason Adam’s stuff spectacular? Did it improve this season? Why were his results in the very pitcher-friendly MWL so pedestrian this year? And how much weight did his stats from this season figure into your ranking of him?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
although it's in the subscriber only content of the article
it’s otherwise well-known that he wasn’t the player everyone saw in the instructs last fall, the player keith law said would have been a first round pick had he shown that kind of performance earlier in the year.
I talked to a manager that coached against KC AZ teams last year
He said they were really impressed with Adam. He worked downhill, down in the zone, had a 95 mph fastball, great off speed stuff. used the fastball in and out. Good location last instructs… so…
It isn't spectacular, I don't think you find too many spectacular pitchers and pitches in the low
A ball level. I have attended quite a few A ball games and you would be hard pressed to see spectacular anything. Its essentially a slight step above college baseball with wood bats.
His curve is his best pitch and it can look major league quality in flashes its got a tight late late break when he throws a good one. It’s a different pitch from what we are used to seeing out of other Royals curveballs like Duffy’s which is big and looping. His fastball is decent has a decent tail to it but when I saw him he was working 88-92 touching 94 because he was working on control. Jason is a big athletic kid I could see him easily adding those 2-3 mph to his fastball to make it a 94-95 avg fb which would make him extremely tough.
His change is a work in progress as you would expect out of any A ball pitcher but he has a decent feel for it and just has to get more comfortable with it.
If you watch him its easy to see what people like about him.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
With that kind of fastball and curve, shouldn't he have gotten more than 6.6 K/9 in a low-A pitcher's league?
Aren’t those numbers relevant to evaluating him? I’m not saying for a second that he’s just blah and merely a fringe prospect. But it seems like for you, KG and others, his performance record from 2011 was irrelevant and that his stock hasn’t dropped; it might have even gone up a bit, even though the description of his tools that you just gave is not materially different from the kinds of things BA said about him in last year’s prospect handbook. So if the tools aren’t better and the stats weren’t very impressive, shouldn’t his stock go down at least a little?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 18, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well an 88-92 mph curve isn't enough to get past A ball hitters.
Scott stats just don’t mean a whole hell of alot in the low minors for pitchers. Greg Billo dominated with a mid 80s fastball, how long is that going to last?
His stock as a player is probably about where it was coming out of Arizona likely a tick down. You are basing his stock up comment based off the ranking organizationally. Jason would be 18th or 19th if all the players at the major league level still qualified. He’s 10-11th best prospect in probably the 15th ranked system, that’s nothing its essentially like Blake Wood being ranked 10th in 2009. He is a prospect, prospects flash signs of possible things to come. Jason has flashed a upper 90s fastball, a upper level curveball and a usable change up.
He isn’t Taijuan Walker who dominated the MWL, if he was he’d be ranked #1 or #2 depending on your flavor of Wil Myers
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
No higher than 10th in my mind
too many graduates
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
top 10 for sure
Most likely top 5 at the least.
You have star potential at the top and depth throughout the system. The graduates are what makes this even more impressive. Even after graduating Eric Hosmer,Mike Moustakas, Dan Duffy, Johnny Giavotella, Salvador Perez, Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, and Tim Collins you still have a top 10 like this.
1.Wil Myers
2.Mike Montgomery
3.Cheslor Cuthbert
4.Jake Odorizzi
5.Bubba Starling
6. John Lamb
7.Chris Dwyer
8.Yorando Ventura
9.Elier Hernandez
10.Jason Adam
Not to mention Kelvin Herrera, Christian Colon,Brett Eibner,Bryan Brickhouse, Kyle Smith, Noel Argulles, Tim Melville, Cam Gallagher, Jorge Bonifacio, Greg Billo, and others.
Not many teams can match that top 10 if any can at all. We might be a little weaker depth wise but we still have depth. There isn’t 10 better farm system, would be hard to find 5.
This certainly isn't what Kevin Goldstein seems to believe.
His column states that it’s still among the best farm systems. When I saw him speak at a Rangers function, he listed them as a top five system at the end of July. They didn’t graduate that much talent after that point.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Nov 18, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe you are right I don't see a top 5 system
I’d put Rangers, Rays, Nationals, Braves and Jays ahead of them. Seems the minors are pretty depleted of talent now that I look at it… They are probably a Top 10 system but I don’t see the overal amount of talent there but I could be a bit hard on them cause I see them so much.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I think you are being hard on them.
The group you named and the Royals are the consensus top 6 teams and most of them are interchangeable.
How many of those teams could match our top 3 hitters(Myers,Starling,Cuthbert) and top 3 pitchers(Monty, Lamb, Odorizzo). I doubt any of them can. Some may have a little more depth but and7- 8-9-10 of Dwyer,Ventura,Hernandez, Adams is impressive as well and i would like to see that compared to those other teams 7 through 10.
Some guys even have Hererra,Colon,Eibner, and even Bonifacio in their top tens so we have some depth and had a strong draft IMO.
Of course after graduating about half of your top 15 prospects you may automatically downgrade your farm but i really don’t think you should do this.
Then again when you have a consensus of 5 or 6 teams that all have about 15 good prospects it is kind of hard to argue which one is better than the other.
Also another way to look at it.
Starling and Cuthbert replace Hosmer and Moustakas.
Odorizzi and Hererra replace Duffy and Crow.
Then you lose Perez, Giavotella,Teaford, Holland, Coleman and Collins but you add in Elier Hernandez, Bryan Brickhouse,Kyle Smith, Cam Gallagher,Jorge Bonifacio, and even Greg Billo.
You also get improvement and experience from Jason Adam, Yorando Ventura, and Noel Argulles.
Obviously with graduations, injuries, and a few bad years this system may not have the glory it did last year and it shouldn’t because that group of prospects was unreal but i think we did a good job replacing talent with this “second wave”.
I understand what you are saying but
Cuthbert doesn’t have the ceiling that Hos and Moose had although Odorizzi is more thought of than Duffy ever was amongst people outside the org.
The wave is deeper than most I just like the other systems top end talents more but the Royals are deep
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
It seems like most would agree that strikeouts
or K/9, are one of the few stats that are useful for minor leaguers.
And was thus surprised to see Adam crack Goldstein’s top 10.
They seem like a necessary but not sufficient condition.
Strikeouts mean little by themselves because some guys get by with a deceptive delivery which won’t hold up at higher levels.
by WURoyal on Nov 19, 2011 3:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
also because there are plenty of Eibners in the lower levels
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 19, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Ouch
Id love nothing more than for Eibner to start hitting. With plate discipline and power he’d be a good ML player if he could hit .250/.350/450. Supposedly he’s a good CF and might be plus in RF.
by WURoyal on Nov 21, 2011 12:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, just making a joke about K rates in the lower levels
love the Eibner pick and from what I read all the tools are there except, well, making contact. But it’s only been one season.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2011 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
and I know that "contact" isn't precisely one of the "tools"
you know what I mean
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 21, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Jason Parks loves Adam
I guess in spring training last year his fastball was sitting 94-95, and touching 97. At that time, Parks graded his fastball as a 70, curve as a 60, and changeup as a 50.
I got the sense that the fastball grade was as-is (that is, based on pure velocity), but the curve and changeup were flashing those grades, and are really more indicating what he might be able to do as he ages.
Apparently, though, his velocity was way down once Kane County’s season started. I imagine the reason why scouts who are still high on him saw him in that spring training and are thinking, “well, if he did it once…” That, and he’s huge and just 20 years old.
Yeah,
Parks said Adam was the best pitcher he’d seen in AZ last spring. Of anyone.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Nov 18, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Dwyer's command will improve
If he can decide which arm to throw with…
This is an example of why you take lists with a huge grain of salt. A lot of the time they aren’t accurate.
by WURoyal on Nov 18, 2011 2:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
That is a typo KG has seen Dwyer in person and knows what hand he pitches with
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
It's a clear error.
It makes me wonder where the errors that we can’t as easily detect are lurking.
by WURoyal on Nov 18, 2011 3:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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