Based solely on AL Central 2011 xFIPs...

Moore has said he is still looking to add a SP to the mix. Now, we all know it will probably be someone only roughly as good as Sanchez – but if he were to somehow add one starter who was actually better than Sanchez (in other words, a true #1 or #2), then the team might have an outside chance at contention (say 1—20% chance of winning the division?). The team would need to make up the remaining difference from the rotations by having a superior bullpen (very possible), superior defense (possible), and superior offense (entirely possible)

I think the Royals rotation has a shot at being as good as the White Sox. Buehrle is gone, Sale won’t post a 3.00 xFIP as a starter, although you can probably plug Humber in for Buehrle and have roughly the same number so maybe they will be as good. I don’t think Fister and Tomlin will be as good next year but I could be wrong, especially about Fister who seems to be getting better and better. So nevermind, Royals probably are still 4th heh heh.

I would post it, but it is in Word and won’t format right—I would e-mail it to someone who knows what is up, but don’t know who that would be. If I can take anything from that data, it would be “xFIP and fWAR do not tell a complete tale.” The White Sox had an fWAR that would add to 89 wins—mostly because fWAR (the one that heavily considers xFIP) is not as reliable if all pitchers are above average but not great.

It also fails to balance offense and defense. The best end-game stat is one of the simplest: pythagorean. Runs scored, runs surrendered. Easy end game. xFIP SHOULD judge the surrendered part, but does not consider defense. Then throw in runs scored—NOW judge the division.

If Hochevar goes 2nd half all year, Duffy develops, Chen continues above his peripherals (as Klaasen once suggested on FG Moyer style), Paulino stays even, and Sanchez pitches his xFIP…the Royals have a competitive rotation, and need to count on offensive development. Given the known curve of age and production, such a guess is entirely reasonable. Not a lock, or even something to reasonably bet on—but reasonably competitive for the division.

And he’s the perfect picture of the Royals Facebook fan. Last year at the beginning of the season he thought the Royals were going to the playoffs. When I pointed out that we had no starting pitching, and we’d eventually come back to earth he wasn’t buying it.

At dinner, I was stupid enough to bring up how much I hated the Bruce Chen signing and he was having none of it. Thought it was a great signing, and that the Royals were going to do great this year. I asked him about our starting pitching problems, and he said that Moore is going to sign someone really good. I asked who this magical pitcher might be, but he had no answer and conversation was over.

I mean, I didn’t push it, trying to pop the bubble of an enthusiastic Royals fan is like kicking a puppy. Continued ignorance just irritates me for some reason though.

Wouldn’t the average xFIP, weighted by innings pitched, be a more accurate indicator of the rotation’s ability?

And is FIP really all that significant? I know RA (without the E) depends partly on the defense behind the pitcher, but part of his job is to get batters to hit balls weakly that the fielders can get to easily. FIP doesn’t take any of that into account. It’s an interesting stat, but it’s not the only stat.

I’m an amateur. You guys who really know about stats can correct me. Then I’ll correct your grammar and we’ll be even.