Ten 2012 Season Predictions.
Lots of people are saying that the Royals will have a great season next year. Lots of people are saying the Royals won't have a great season next year. So, where do I stand in all of this? Some of you might already know, but for those who don't, here are my predictions for the 2012 season.
Keep in mind: these are predictions. This isn't supposed to be hard-hitting analysis, I just felt like listing what I think might happen in 2012.
Prediction #1: The Royals will trade for Brandon Beachy this off-season.
Let's see... Braves connection, good young pitcher who is cost controlled. What could match that? Well, I hate to say this, but Wil Myers could match that. Our lineup is already great, and we would be essentially trading the same amount of cost-control for a pitcher with just about the same amount of upside.
I could definitely see a Myers-for-Beachy trade in order, and it would help the Royals in 2012 by a lot.
Prediction #2: The Royals will have at least 3 All-stars next season.
This is one of my bolder predictions for 2012. The last time the Royals had 3 All-Stars was 1988. The last time they even had two was 2003.
I predict that Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador Perez will be All-Stars in 2012.
Prediction #3: Eric Hosmer will hit 34 Home Runs, and get in the Top 3 in the MVP voting.
Another VERY bold prediction. Eric Hosmer is probably the best player we have had since George Brett, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is better than Brett over the course of his career. If he does get in the top 3, SIGN HIM TO AN EXTENSION IMMEDIATELY.
I also predict that he will hit for .305 or above.
Prediction #4: Alex Gordon will duplicate his success in 2012.
Pretty self-explanatory.
Prediction #5: Joakim Soria will return to form.
Also pretty self-explanatory, but I'll add in that he will get at least 45 saves.
Prediction #6: Mike Montgomery will step it up in 2012.
I think Montgomery will regain his control during ST, and will start the season in the rotation. I think he will win at least 14 games, and lose less than 8, and get some ROY votes.
Prediction #7: Felipe Paulino will become an ace.
Yes, I'm saying Felipe Paulino will become an ace. I think he'll be able to sort out his walks in ST, and start hitting the corners more, which would make him a terrific pitcher. It wouldn't surprise me if he won at least 16 games.
Prediction #8: Mike Moustakas will start hitting for power.
Mike Moustakas has power potential, and I think that potential will start to show in 2012. Expect him to break Balboni's record.
Prediction #9: Melky Cabrera will be dealt at the deadline.
I think Melky will have a strong start to the season, and he will be dealt at the deadline to another contending team. DM has hinted at this, so it wouldn't surprise me.
Prediction #10: The Royals will win 89 games next year, will finish second in the division, and will sneak into the playoffs with a wild-card spot.
Yes, the Royals will get to the playoffs next year. Barely.
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So, those are my predictions. What are yours?
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Well that was fun
My 2 cents: if all of those things happen, the Royals will win a lot more than 89 games.
by kcdc1 on Nov 6, 2011 11:53 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Those are some awfully rose-colored glasses.
If half of those occur, we’ll get to 89 games. I bet like 40% of this will come true. But to each fan his own.
MAJOR LEAGUE (The Royals)
Rachel Phelps (Royals Management): I think he'll fit right in with our team concept.
Charlie Donovan (Royals Fans): That reminds me, I was going to ask you. What exactly *is* our team concept?
Critical Spirit
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 6, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Those are all positive predictions
No negative predictions?
Why would you trade Wil Myers, who has a chance to become Ryan Braun, for Brandon Beachy, an unproven starter? Beachy’s ERA was 3.6 last year. If we are going to trade a potential Ryan Braun, it better be for an ace like Cole Hamels.
Right, but Brandon Beachy has Cole Hamels potential.
And he has a year of experience in the majors. I would say that a pitcher with his potential is far more valuable to our team than an outfielder with good potential on an offense-stacked team.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
I like Beachy.
10.6 K’s per nine. Young. Cost-controlled. I’d be ok with a Myers trade for Beachy way more than Jurrjens.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Nov 6, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, so now the Royals are an "offense-stacked team"?
They have to potential to have a really good offense, but we should probably wait until they prove it before we make claims like “stacked”.
7th in baseball
5th in the AL
and that’s with at least 5 players in either their first or second year getting 100+ AB’s (Hosmer, Moose, Gia, Perez, Escobar)
The Royals have a playoff caliber offense. They just need playoff caliber pitching to go with it
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
What is a "playoff caliber offense?"
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Giants 2010
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 6, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'd say top 10 in MLB
The difference at the top is pretty slim.
There are cleary tiers of Offense
At the top you have teams like New York, Texas and Boston which are clearly elite. Their average wRC+ is around 115
Then you have another layer of about 10-12 teams who are good enough to make the playoffs. Their offenses can’t carry bad pitching staffs in the way that the ones at the top can, but with good pitching they will contend for the playoffs. The average wRC+ here is about 100 with some outliers like the card’s(thanks to their offense dampening park) and the Rockies(thanks to their offense loving park)
Then you have the remainder of about 15 teams. These teams offenses need some help from the pitching staff to make the playoffs. They still can, and can perform well, but without a couple of elite starting pitchers, these teams probably aren’t going to be contenders. Their average wRC+ would be around 90 or so. No playoff team in 2011 had an offense in this category.
The Royals fall slightly onto the upper side of the second group.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
Hmmm...
probably need to just compare within the league (Al/NL), as the NL figures include pitchers hitting
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Realism is nice
But I guess a list of best case scenarios is fun too.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Fun post...
and of course, it’s optimistic. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think one, or several of these things could come to pass; in fact, I thinks it’s likely something up there comes to pass.
I could see Gordon hitting for less average, but more power and have a better year, overall. I think Moustakas will hit for more power, but not 37 HR’s.
Doubt Paulino has ‘Ace’ written anywhere on him unless it’s part of a poker tattoo; I’d be happy with Ogondo-lite and think that’s a possibility.
I think one of either Francouer or Melky goes back to being either Francouer or Melky, for the Royals or in Melky’s case, someone else.
I think Teaford will end up starting and be surprisingly good.
Thanks for providing some conversational fodder, Mr Marsh.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
Im just going to make a few predictions...
The Royals will shoot out of the gates on a ridiculous hot streak (18-11!!!)… Which will inevitably screw us when it comes time to trade guys… Because Dayton will remember what the Rays and Cardinals did.
Moustakas will continue to struggle early, get send down… And come back up and do pretty well.
Hochevar will finally put a full season together, nothing Cy Young worthy or anything, but a very solid season.
Royals will stay competitive through August, but fall short when the pitching just falls out the bottom down the stretch.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
Let's wait to crown Hosmer until he's the best Royal since Alex Gordon
…and he could still be awesome and not be as good as Beltran.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 12:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions
yeah...jack probably doesnt remember how fucking awesome beltran was...i was a sad guy when he got traded
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, but we got to keep Sweeney, right?
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
Not addressing your Sweeney comment
but rec’ing the Beltran love is always earned.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
fun fact….francoeurs last 5 years where he’s been one of the worst players in baseball 6.8 WAR….sweeney’s 5/55 years 4.3 WAR
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
Let's sere: Hosmer has five years of team control left, right?
here’s somethinng to thikn about. I’ll use fWAR. Hosmer had 1.6 fWAR this season, to pass the following players as Royals, he would have to average about (some rounding, probably some slight errors) the following amounts over the next five years:
Carlos Beltran: 25.5 WAR as a Royal, Hosmer would need to average ~4.8 WAR (rounding to one decimal) a year to catch him
Mike Sweeney: 21.5 WAR, Hosmer would need to average 4 WAR/year
George Brett: post-1985 years only: 21.4, also 4/yr
David DeJesus: 19.9 3.7/yr
Kevin Seitzer 18.0, 3.3/yr (unless I"m forgetting someone, his 1987 was probably the best rookie season by a nonpitcher
in Royals history… certainly far better than Hosmer’s, even just on hitting alone)
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
six years of team control
you're just as bad as Rany
indeed
I am really confused. Hosmer has six years left?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
teams get 6 full years of control
because this wasn’t considered a full year for hosmer, we’ll have six more
by 9il on Nov 6, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Hosmer needed 172 days in the majors to qualify for a full season of service time. By waiting at least 20 days into the season, a team is guaranteed that the player will not accrue enough time. Hosmer was called up in, what, May, so in six years, he will end up a month and change short of the six full years necessary for free agency.
oh
I’m getting service time and Super 2 mixed up, which is why I stay away from this stuff.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
well, that was embarassing, here are the re-done numbers
Beltran: 4.0
Sweeney: 3.3
Brett post-1985: 3.3
DDJ: 3.0
Seitzer: 2.7
Mike McFarlane: 2.4
Danny Tarabull: 2.3
Joe Randa: 2.1
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 6, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Fun fact:
If Hosmer retired today, he’d have the exact same career OPS+ as Mike Sweeney.
I’d think Hosmer could put up 4+ WAR a year.
Obviously one year equals the same production over multiple...
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Sweeney also got a boost
playing catcher for parts of 4 seasons. The positional adjustment between catcher and 1B is 25 runs.
Well, all those things could happen
but they’re probably not going to. If half of them happen we’ll contend for the playoffs.
I could buy a) Gordon doesn’t regress too much b) Soria will improve, though probably not to his pre-2011 level c) Moustakas will hit with some power, but not forty home runs, more like twenty d) Hosmer plays like a future All-Star and hits thirty homers e) Melky gets traded f) Sal Pérez wins the starting job g) Montgomery pitches decently in the AL.
All these things are not going to happen. Some of them will and some of them won’t.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
Melky got traded.
Score one for Jack’s and my predictive ability. We did sort of miss the part about the midseason trade deadline rather than before the winter meetings.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
O.T. anyone ever take a look at how similar Alan Craig's minor league hitting stats...
and age progression are similar to Clint Robinson’s? Robinson is a year younger and has been a little better (.915 vs .885 career OPS), but both have played in the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues around similar ages with similar success. Be interested to see him gets some AB’s in the majors, somewhere, if he is indeed comparable as a hitter to Craig.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
they're the cards though...they get lucky with shit like that...we dont
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
aaaarhgh!
…you’re right, I hadn’t considered that. And get ready for Dave Duncan to turn Kyle Davies into the next Loshe/Wellemeyer/Pinero/rMarquis reclaimation project, too.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
I agree with most,
but I am an optimist, so sue me.
1-Yes to Myers trade, but not sure who the pitcher will be
2-Yes
3-No
4-Yes
5-Yes
6-Yes
7-No
8-Yes
9-Depends on whether Cain gets traded and KC’s spot in the division standings
10-No/Yes/No
That information is somewhat classified.
If all those things happen...we'll win 110 games.
I appreciate the optimism…but I think this much kool-aid would put me in a diabetic coma.
Killing time until time kills me
The other two will be led by MITCH
Mitch just doesn’t have enough though
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 6, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I figured that Mitch would PITCH batting practice
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
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Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 6, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Eh.
Half of them, sure.
I truly think the Royals will have 3 All-Stars, and my predictions are Gordon, Hosmer, and Soria. Perez is way too much of a reach. He’s going to super-regress next year methinks.
Alex Gordon will remain really really good. Soria will improve, too. His peripherals weren’t as bad as our perception of his season suggested. He was still a good reliever this year.
Monty may not start the season (I think either him or Crow will begin but not both) but he’s probably going to produce more than Duffy has. Paulino—no. He’s been around way too long with mediocre results to assume the ‘ace’ mantle. Solid, 2.5-3 WAR? Sure. No Ace.
Moose will hit more, period. Or he will flop. I don’t think there’s a middle ground.
89 wins, yeah…wild card? You kidding? The Royals would have to outperform two of the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays combo to do so. AL Central or bust.
If you are going to sag we have three all stars, I’d guess Soria, Holland, and Gordon.
by WURoyal on Nov 6, 2011 5:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
at least their qb gets his hair cut
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
At least your couch will be able to shave
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 6, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
suh...nebraska fan...
been in kc since 88…never got into the chiefs…i was pretty much going to follow whoever drafted suh…not claiming to be a diehard or anything…but i didnt hop on the bandwagon when they started winning games…it was discussed here preseason
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, sweet
I’ve adopted the ’Skins as my NFC team…Pretty much due to them drafting Kerrigan (Purdue) and Hankerson (Miami)
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 6, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
I kinda have the Lions as my NFC team...
I like Schwartz, like Suh, like Megatron. I picked them to go to the Superbowl with the Texans in the preseason.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 6, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
i love their cockiness
they’re going to play how they want…fuck whoever doesnt like it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I can't wait to see them play the Packers.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 6, 2011 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
rodgers hasnt been concussed in awhile
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 6, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
LOL 'Fins
Colts taking the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes…
by Tracer Bullet 82 on Nov 6, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
God no
Being a Jags fan, I cannot stand another 10 + years of having Indy dominate with their QB
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 6, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
If we're calling wishes "predictions" now, I have a few...
1. The Royals will ditch those awful day game powder blue hats after realizing that if they weren’t good enough for George Brett, they’re not good enough now.
2. The Royals will partner with Boulevard and set the standard for professional sports teams everywhere by halving their beer prices to an affordable-ish 4.25 for a 16 oz. brew.
3. After seeing the pretty view of the St. Louis Arch in the background of the World Series shots at Busch Stadium, the Royals will upgrade the Kauffman aesthetics by building a monument to cover 1-70. It will be the largest waterfall anywhere in world (man-made or natural) and will dwarf Niagara Falls.
4. Royal Man will ditch the spandex for a classy outfit consisting of a smoking jacket and a monacle. SluggerrrrrrrRRrrRrr will be ousted and erased from records. Garth Brooks will take his place as official mascot.
5. Eric Hosmer will hit a game-winning home run in the all-star game, followed by the immediate removal of the “This Time it Matters” rule, as people realize that a Royal potentially affecting the outcome of the 2012 World Series is almost as dumb as a wild card team hosting a Game 7.
by Tracer Bullet 82 on Nov 6, 2011 3:24 PM EST reply actions
Barcelona. You go down to the bar with pay-TV
and watch the Barça game. It’s fun because the whole crowd is really into it. Beers cost one euro each, which is around $1.40. San Miguel, local proletarian beer, more or less Miller High Life. You can watch pay-TV and get tanked for next to nothing. Comparison pricing: A six-pack of proletarian beer at the store costs about €4.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
My least favorite thing about the Royals is Garth Brooks.
The “I’ve Got Friends in Low Places” sing-along is, without a doubt, the reason for the Pythag bad luck.
by dejezeus on Nov 6, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Let's see...
1. Right team, wrong pitcher, we’re gonna get stuck with Jurjenns
2. Maybe 2, prob not 3, so doubt it on this one.
3. No, 25 more likely
4. Probably gonna happen, not a stretch
5. Doubt it
6. Less likely
7. Definitely not happening, he doesn’t have ace material
8. Not gonna happen
9. Not a stretch and prob needs to happen
10. Not a chance
I agree if all of these happen, we would win 100+ games, more likely 2 maybe 3 of these will happen, which equates to 80 maybe 82 wins, which gets us 3rd in the division. And that’s if our rotation looks something like Beachy/Jurjenns, Edwin Jackson, Chen, Hochever, Paulino.
Well ok, so........
1. Offer Cain instead of Myers and you’ve got a deal. Ken Rosenthal, per mlbtraderumors, says that the Braves proposed that deal at one time, but it appears to have been w/ the Brewers. Maybe they are still interested? I think that would be a fine trade.
2. It’s possible, but I think it’s more like Gordon, Hosmer and Soria if you have three. I certainly hope Perez can pull that off. You never know about all star selections really, so I’m not holding my breath.
3. The average seems possible; I’d say probably more like 25 home runs, but he’ll drive in 100+ and yeah, he’ll be a very tough out regardless. MVP? Probably not.
4. I suspect some slight regression, but not much, so that goes for a yes in my book.
5. I’d go for more like 40 saves and a slightly higher ERA, but yes he won’t be as crappy as he was this year.
6. Not sure, let’s see how spring training goes. I suspect he goes back to Omaha to start the year and gets called up in May or June if he’s tearing it up down there.
7. I don’t see him becoming an ace. I think the Ogando comparison is more reasonable.
8. I see him being a 20/80 guy who sits a few games out against LHP, but given where he’ll probably hit in the lineup, I’ll take that any day. I also see him as a possible pull late in games for defensive reasons (e.g. Descalso for Freese). I look for the Royals to find a veteran defense guy who can plug 2nd and 3rd and hit right handed or switch.
9. Yeah, this will probably happen, though if Cain is dealt, we could end up w/ Mitch in CF.
10. I’m not predicting anything until the Royals make a pitching move, as that is the most likely determinant of their 2012 success.
Atl has no incentive to trade Beachy
Unless they get a haul that helps them win immediately. Myers isn’t even a great fit for them because they have Heyward.
They are just fishing hoping Moore decides to be a moron.
by WURoyal on Nov 6, 2011 7:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Myers could play LF.
I suppose Heyward could roll back to CF, too, depending on their ideal defense and what happens with Bourn.
I would be shocked if half of these happen
But I applaud Jack’s youthful optimism.
It is amazing that growing up as a Royals fan, without even the memory of great teams that us older folks have to fall back on , that the optimism hasn’t been beaten out of him.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
In contrast
does anyone else think there’s an excellent chance that either Moustakas or Hosmer has a certifiably bad season next year?
define certifiably bad
below replacement level? if so, i highly doubt it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Jason Heyward 2011-esque
His .222/.319/.389 was surprisingly worth 2.2 WAR, but still, I’d be disappointed in this.
It could happen
Moose, in particular, has not proven that he can hit MLB pitching. I’m hopeful that the late-season surge was for real, but I wouldn’t go as far as saying that there’s no chance that Moose won’t suck.
you've gotta suck really bad to be below replacement level though...
i think the odds are slim that he does that….him being below average? id have to go somewhere around 50/50 on that….i think its slim with hosmer
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
But even being a little above replacement level is still quite bad for a MLB regular
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
You'll have an excellent career in journalism.
Lots of people are saying…
Nick Swisher and Johnny Giavatella deserve treats in the Kaufmann parking lot.
Damn boy
I hope you’re right, but right or wrong, I want some of whatever you’re smoking.
Some What Right Predictions.
1. No we got Sanchez and we don’t deal our #1 prospect for Brandon Beachy!
2. Yes! but I think that Sal and Moose are interchangeble and Greg Holland might be in the mix too.
3. It’s Moose that will hit 34. Yes hos will finish in the top 3 and yes he will hit above 305. Hos will hit in 29 Homers.
4. Heck Ya. MVP 2012.
5. Ya he probably will or if not we could start the curse of MacDougel. That after MacDougel no royal closer can be good for a long period. This will be broken quickly like the curse of balboni.
6. No he will be up late season but not replace anyone. He will go in for shut downs with Teaford and Mendoza.
7. Yes He might win 16 but won’t be an ace. He will have a 3’s ERA and be helped with great offense that is how.
8. Ya Moose will break Balboni this was said early in this comment.
9. He was dealt for sanchez.
10. Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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