Melky Cabrera Trade Inaugurates Lorenzo Cain Era in Center-Field
by Freneau on Nov 7, 2011 6:59 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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We'll never know what the Royals initially wanted to do with Lorenzo Cain in 2011. Perhaps what ended up transpiring -- a year in AAA while a veteran stopgap played CF in KC -- was truly optimal, perhaps it was just what ended up happening. The Royals signed Melky Cabrera on December 10, 2010, and nine days later they acquired Cain in the Greinke trade.
As we neared Opening Day, word kept coming out that Melky had signed with the Royals in part because he'd been promised either the starting job or a chance to compete for the starting job. I thought this was just another maddening, bizarre, and counter-productive Royals negotiation tactic, just another weird footnote to the Dayton Moore Era. Why are the Royals promising Melky Cabrera anything? But in retrospect maybe it was brilliant messaging, brilliant spin. The front office may be a lot of things, but they are not undisciplined in the media. Honoring a promise to Melky allowed the Royals to act like Cain was someone they truly wanted in CF, but just... gosh darn it, they ended up in this real pickle of a situation here. It sold Cain as a valuable piece and created an explanation for him starting AAA in Omaha. After all, if starting was simply an issue, Cain could have been up with the 2010 Royals in place of Mitch Maier or Jarrod Dyson.
Well, Melky's gone now.
Here are Cain's relevant stat lines from the last two seasons:
| BA | OBP | SLG | PAs | |
| 2010 MIL | .306 | .348 | .415 | 158 |
| 2010 AAA | .299 | .384 | .425 | 100 |
| 2011 AAA | .312 | .380 | .496 | 549 |
Cain's numbers in AAA improved from 2010 to 2011, which is encouraging. However, it must be said that a) he was 25 last season and b) everyone in the PCL hit last year. His wOBA+ from 2011 in Omaha is 108+, a tick or so above average. His numbers from the last two seasons are more encouraging than discouraging, but only by a matter of degree.
What the Royals now have in Cain is a young player entering his prime who is set to spend his late 20s earning the Major League minimum. Financially, that is all you can ask for. Cain, as a roster spot, is a little like inheriting a bungalow in Southern California in 1960. Barring the unforeseen, he's going to be a nice investment.
Like he former Brewer colleague Alcides Escobar, Cain is expected to generate a good chunk of his value by playing a premium defensive position well. If I had to wager on it, I'd say that he'll draw raves from fans and media members next season, garnering praise in the extreme. I expect that his defensive stats will be good, but a little less glowing. (This is mostly because I'm convinced observers of every team overrate anyone who is good defensively. There's no sense of scale or precision when evaluating glovemen, because comparing players is really really difficult. So as such, there are always about eight players at every position who their fans think is clearly the best at his position.)
This may all sound like I'm phlegmatic on Cain, which is true. It's funny. We've been all over the place on his abilities this last year. Last winter, I remember getting scolded on Twitter because I wrote that Cain probably needed some additional time in the minors. Then, when Melky started the season well and Cain struggled a little bit, opinions flipped. Let's trade Cain and lock up Melky! Now, we're back to being super excited about Cain again. He's not Jarrod Dyson, a fast guy who can't hit, but he's not an elite prospect either. I worry especially about his ability to make contact in the Majors, given that he struck out 102 times last year. The good news is that he's got a foundation of decent power and good OBPs to work from.
In the WAR era we've seen or learned or been reminded that center-fielders who hit close to league average and play good defense are extremely valuable. Centerfielders in the Dayton Moore Era have been a little bit like the minor local dieties of the ancient world, at once endless variety but all pretty much the same thing. The best ones, David DeJesus and Melky Cabrera have been the players that deviated the most from Moore's ideal. Hopefully, Cain can be the fast glove-first player who can hit a little that management has so long desired.
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This will ultimately be validated when the Royals
resign Greinke in 2013
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Nov 7, 2011 7:02 PM EST reply actions
If Cain hits like he did in 2010 for Milwaukee
and breaks even on baserunning and fielding, which by all accounts he should put up better numbers than that, then he’d be comparable to a guy like Michael Bourn, who put up 4.2 WAR last year.
For comparison Melky put up …4.2 WAR last year…
I for one welcome the Locain era.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
if only his first name was Colin.
we’d be set up for the Cocain era.
by BeauJackson on Nov 7, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Why not?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_scandals#1985_cocaine_scandal
It was a good year, anyway.
Nick Swisher and Johnny Giavatella deserve treats in the Kaufmann parking lot.
We definitely don’t need another CF with a cocaine problem…that was terrible. (youngsters see Wilson, Willie, circa 1978-82)
by Rufus R. Jones on Nov 8, 2011 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
Well, Rob Neyer is a paid employee, isn't he?
So they’d probably introduce him as “Rob Neyer from SBNation”.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I think Cain will end up being very similar to dejesus
a little less bat, a little more defense and base running.
I just really like being in this position, where we have a prospect that wasn’t rushed and is entering his prime. I just can’t picture a situation where Cain isn’t at least serviceable in center.
This is close to my...
…evaluation.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Actually, Cain should..
…have a better bat. DeJesus was a glorified singles hitter. Yes, he had doubles power. But we wasn’t exactly speedy. DeJesus was just incredibly average, which seemed great in comparison to the really lousy players situated around him.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
His actual stats do not bear out most of what you said there
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Scott, when you have a chance, check your email
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Let's look at DeJesus and speculate a bit about Cain
1. DeJesus best doubles season: 36 in 2006. Cain should reach that, probably 3-4 times if given the time to produce.
2. DeJesus: 13 HRs in 2009. Cain should reach that; Bloomquist might reach it at Fenway. It’s eminently reachable. My 3 year-old son could reach in the summers at Wrigley.
3. DDJ: 11 SBs in 2008. Cain might reach 30 his first year.
4. DDJ: best OBP = .366 in 2008 over 135 games. Cain is already showing that kind of ability based on Will’s numbers above.
5. DDJ defense = No comparison, I think. Cain will beat DDJ by any measure (UZR, etc.).
6. DDJ’s grit. You got me here. DDJ may have more grit than Cain.
How long do I have to do this?
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Is this for real or is it parody?
I honestly can’t tell.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Did I McKinney...
…McKinney?
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
To answer your question: ...
…It’s both. But I confess to being a big Cain fan.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
At least Cain has...
…has had a little big league success. This makes the Kila comparisons not so valid.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
One more thing: ...
…Some of DDJ’s most average numbers came with extensive PT in 2007, when he played 157 games and had 605 plate appearances. Even then his OPS was .723 (not to mention his .260 BA). He only had 64 BB. Yes, he scored 101 runs. Fine. …Let’s face it: We overvalued DDJ because he had a nice smile and played with a lousy set of teammates.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
No, I guess we “overvalued” thinks like OBP, wOBA, UZR and WAR.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
Is this for...
…me or McKinney? I just don’t see why he wants to defend DDJ as something better than what he was.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
You
I didn’t get the comparison
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 7, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
How long do I have to do this?
Until you come up with a source for your Cain predictions that is better than your gut. So Cain’s going to hit more doubles, more HR’s, more SB, higher OBP. Based on….what? Your gut feeling about how AAA numbers translate to the majors?
And DeJesus was an “incredibly average” player who had six above average seasons (if you believe in a whacky little stat called WAR). And that incredibly average player averaged a little over 3 WAR over the last 7 years. I’ll be overjoyed if Cain can manage that. I doubt he can. Hopefully he’ll be a decent hitter. With is strikeout rate, I don’t know. DeJesus’s career .356 OBP was worth a lot. You write it off like OBP is no big deal.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
By your calculus, strangely, we'd...
…always favor major league players because we already know what can do. Are you arguing for or against minor league success as, in some degree, a predictor of future success? Do minor league stats matter to you? If our AAA/PCL league is so radically skewed, wouldn’t our major league club disavow stats from the league—-meaning avoid it as any kind of predictor of success? The fact is they don’t. …I don’t write off DDJ’s OBP like it’s no big deal. Rather, I think Cain may approximate it. – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Cain may well end up better, the same as or worse than DeJesus. I don’t have a problem with random speculation about how prospects will do in the majors, but you seemed unduly certain of how Cain’s minor league performance would translate to the majors.
Are you arguing for or against minor league success as, in some degree, a predictor of future success? Do minor league stats matter to you?
In predicting major league performance, of course minor league stats need to be considered. But they have to be considered in context. You need to look at park and league effects. You have to consider age-for-level. You have to consider, to some degree, a player’s entire minor league track record, just just the last year or two (although of course the most recent years at higher levels should be more telling).
Also, extremely important in evaluating minor leaguers, you have to look at scouting reports and tools. And the scouting reports on Cain have usually been pretty good, but never great. He was never a top 100 prospect. He was never even the top prospect in the Brewer’s system. So it’s not like he’s supremely talented, on top of having good minor league stats.
For a prospect, Cain is a little old. His recent numbers have been good, before that, they were kind of so-so. His strikeout rate is quite high, which is a problem when you don’t have bigtime power.
I like Cain as a hopefully roughly average player. I think the vast majority of his value will come from great CF defense. I think there is very, very, very little chance that he ever becomes as good of a hitter as DeJesus. DeJesus has been a 3 WAR player, on average. Cain projects to be more of a 2 WAR player if his hitting is decent for a CFer.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
If our AAA/PCL league is so radically skewed, wouldn’t our major league club disavow stats from the league—-meaning avoid it as any kind of predictor of success? The fact is they don’t. …
I think our major league club’s front office disavows stats, period.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Don't really see the DJ comparison
DJ showed much better plate discipline in the minors than Cain and nowhere near comparable speed. DJ was always average to below average defensively in CF, while Lorenzo will likely be above average. DJ’s ISO in the minors is 30 points higher.
I guess if you squint you can kind of see it, but I don’t really see them as similar players. But they’re both probably average CF. DJ probably has a better bat overall, Cain a better glove/baserunning.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Call me crazy,
But Cain shows way better potential than DDJ.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
I'm looking at those numbers and seeing a better player in Cain.
1. Cain had one bad year (2009). So did DDJ (2002).
2. Cain’s power is better. Cain’s high minors numbers are similar in their PCL/Omaha strength.
3. Cain clearly has more speed.
4. DDJ had better overall OBP numbers, but Cain’s are not too shabby.
5. Cain’s doubles numbers are better.
How long do I have to go one? A reasonable person could (and does) conclude that Cain may be a better major league player than DDJ.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
How is Cain's power better?
DJ boasts a better ISO. Maybe he had his numbers inflated in the Texas and PCL, but Cain’s best year came in the PCL as well.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm looking at those 16 HRs in AAA...
…and thinking that maybe Cain has learned something. Yes, it’s a hitter friendly league, but that’s a 50 percent jump from his previous high.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
The kid looks like he should hit for a little bit of power
He’s no stick figure in the batters box
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
It's not unusual for...
…players to see a rise in HR totals in their late 20s.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Of course I also...
…haven’t speculated on defense, either in terms of range or arm. DDJ wasn’t known for a strong arm or legs.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Gotta agree with timlacy
Tim is using stats well to make his comparison with DDJ. Cain certainly is not projected as inferior to DDJ and I suspect he will outperform DDJ by 2013 (maybe not in 2012). Scott seemed to imply that a WAR of 3.0 is average. Not so. The baseline of WAR is a replacement level player NOT league average. Big difference. Someone may have the league stats on what league average WAR is. I suspect for a CF the league average WAR is close to 3.0 – same as DDJ in most years and the projection for Cain.
you're going a place you dont want to go with that entire post...
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
man, I was thinking the same thing...
that’s dangling a sirloin in front of a wolverine around here.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Nov 8, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not interested
Not today.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
Average WAR is roughly 2
Hopefully Cain can manage that or even better. DDJ averaged about 3. That’s good. I don’t think Cain will be that good. I hope I’m wrong.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Is Cain's projected WAR numbers...
…properly accounting for defense? And do the figures for DDJ’s past performance account for defense? I know these are hard questions to answer with any sort of rough certainty.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
ARE, not ...
..Is Cain’s. …Hurried comments.
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
The WAR numbers that I’ve quoted for DDJ have included his defense and positional adjustment. When I estimate Cain’s MLB WAR, I am including his very good defense. Now, does that “properly” account for his defense? I certainly don’t know for sure. It’s hard to project defense. How many runs above average will he be? And how many runs below average will his hitting be? How successful will he be at stealing bases? He’s fast, but is he a good base runner? Lots of variables. My best guess is hopefully a league average player based on not so good hitting and very good CF defense, with hopefully a little help from base running.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
DeJesus actually averaged quite a bit below 3,
he was actually at 2.85 as a Royal, if you don’t count 2003. Also, he was about 20% below a 150 game a year average (123 games a year), so Cain doesn’t have to be a good as DeJesus to accumulate as much WAR if he is healthy. If he plays 150 games a year and is a 2 WAR player in comparision to DDJ then he catches about half the difference just from playing time.
Go Royals!
My point was mainly on OPS
They had pretty similar OPS numbers through the minors, and they have similar bats… home run power in the 10-15 range with pretty good gap power.
I look at Cain as...
…two ticks better than David DeJesus. We have a solid defensive and offensive player under control for several years. Then we can let someone else overpay for him. – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
This is a concern
I worry especially about his ability to make contact in the Majors, given that he struck out 102 times last year.
Though, last season he out-wOBA’d everyone in Omaha except Hos and CRob, just barely edging Gia/o. Other than the strikeout pitfall, I think he’s got the talent to at least complement his defense and be an average contributor.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 7, 2011 8:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
It's hard to say what exactly good hitting numbers in the PCL mean
The combination of good hitting environments and the abundance of AAAA players means that I’m rarely confident in thinking that good PCL stats will translate to the majors. Kila is one example among many. It’s really hard to say what Cain’s numbers will turn into in the majors. Some of the peripherals provide specific cause for concern. I just hope his hitting is at least meh so that with his defense the Royals have a league average player.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
his walk rate also took a big hit this season
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Should balance out Sanchez's, then
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Obvious q:
What do projections say re Melky v Cain in 2012? A wash?
This trade is ridiculously common sensical from the royals standpoint. Hard to love the trade because the upside is limited, but even harder to dislike it because the downside is minimal (only possibility is that Melky stars for two months and gets flipped for something better—unlikely)
by billexgordler on Nov 8, 2011 8:42 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Oliver had 2012 projections on their player pages
but they are sometimes down since the World Series…
But from what I remember, I would say that Melky’s superiority as a hitter is canceled out by Cain’s superior defense — at least. The 2012 hitting is not that different between the two, although my usual assumption a player with most of his projection based on the minors probably isn’t quite as good as that projection because of the nature of MLEs.
Even so, it’s probably pretty even. Even if Cain isn’t awesome in center (and he very well might be awesome), it’s still pretty close because Melky is really bad out there.
I think in the other thread I posted that this trade is about as “even” as it gets value wise, at least from what I can see. The main way the Royals could end up getting the short end of the stick (other than surprising good performance from Melky/bad one from Sanchez) is if Sanchez gets hurt again.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
What are some of these concerning peripherals?
Not being snarky or anything; just trying to learn.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 7, 2011 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks (both of you)
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 7, 2011 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
bad walk rate this year
especially in a major hitters league
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but at least he isn't Melky
and he’s definately not Getz. So there’s that.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
Nobody Ever Walked
From Omaha to KC.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
No, he had frequent flier miles for that route
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Huh? Why?
Do the Royals have a better leadoff hitter? They have some that are faster, but definitely not better guys to hit first in the lineup.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 7, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
I can see Ned/DM
Being reluctant to let a rookie leadoff (even though Cain I believe is no longer a rookie).
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
there's no reason to believe that they have any plans on cain batting leadoff...
if they did, he’d have been leading off in omaha
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
This is actually an interesting question
That really seems based on what their performance levels will be.
Gordon will almost certainly regress. While Cain’s abilities are still largely unknown.
What happens if Gordon has an OBP of .360 to Cain’s .350? Does Cain’s speed make him a better lead off hitter? Does Gordon’s much higher slug make him better because he’ll be easier to drive in? Or does that same slug make him a better candidate for hitting second, where his OBP will still help the Royals score runs, but the high slug will help drive in Locain?
Personally that’s the scenario I’d like to see:
Locain, Gordon, Hosmer, Butler, Frenchy, Moose.
Get your best hitter hitting second, the play most prone to double play balls in the spot where he’ll get the fewest DP opportunities and keep the high OBP near the top.
Course you could make an argument for putting locain at the bottom and bumping everyone up a spot. In the end the difference is maybe a run or two over the season, nothing to really worry about.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
Gordon will almost certainly regress?
Hardly. I think he will actually be a better hitter this season. similar avg and obp with better slg.
I can see your reasoning, but to say, “almost certainly” is silly to me. Even after his incredible April, He still got better as the season went on.
First off his numbers slipped actually after July as the season wore on.
Secondly, he will almost certainly regress. Gordon was very lucky on ball in play last year. During his 3 good months his babip was over .400, an absolutely ridiculous feat.
That’s not to say he’ll crash either, even during his one really unlucky month(May) Gordon was still a league average hitter with a .250 babip.
But likely neither of those extremes will happen. Much more likely is Gordon ending up somewhere around his September numbers where his babip was a much more normal .317
A slash line of .290/.360/.480 sounds about right, and keep in mind that’s still fantastic, his season line this year was .303/.376/.502
But the most important number there is his OBP. and if Cain’s is relatively close, say .345 or higher, then you have to weigh the merits of Cain’s speed followed by Gordon’s slugging against Gordon’s OBP+slugging with Cain lower in the order, and honestly I don’t think its really a huge difference, like I said, maybe a run or two max over the season.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
His #s slipped after july?
Actually they did not.
Aug and Sept (48 games): .304/.377/.518
or. if you go after the AS break (63 games) .307/.389/.529
or how bout just Sept? .288/.367/.488. Pretty close.
or maybe just completely removing the crazy April?
He STILL dominated. .297/.373/.494
I dont buy using BABIB on a month by month basis as examples, because you will always find rollercoaster type inconsistencies. I know his season his BABIP was quite high, but Ryan Brauns career babip is .340 and was .350 last yr. You may laugh, but Gordon has similar talent imo, he is just a late bloomer to some degree.
All that said…I do NOT think he will hit for avg quite like Braun. For one thing, the parks are night and day, and I easily see his avg coming down a bit to maybe .285-.290. I was mainly referring to his slugging % getting better in my original retort. With that, I dont see his OBP changing much and possibly improving, as pitchers choose to challenge his increased power less. .
I'm with Scott.
It’d be stupid and foolish to put that kind of pressure on Cain when you have proven, comfortable lead-off hitter. I’m optimistic about Cain, but he should spend most of the season at the bottom of the order, or maybe in the two-hole (my only exception to the bottom spots).
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Yes, you put Butler in the leadoff spot obviously.
Lets him bat more times and reduces his GIDP at the same time, worth maybe a win right there.
Go Royals!
I see Cain leading off
Moore has stated they want a more traditional lead off man (speed). Shit, Getz batted leadoff, Cain is a lock.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 7, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
It is a Decisive Move by DM
He thinks Cain is ready. So he makes the deal and will not need to live or die with Cain. I like it.
by Kansas City Oracle on Nov 7, 2011 9:33 PM EST reply actions
KC keeps Gordon in the lead off spot.
I would bat Cain down in the lineup so that he wouldn’t have much pressure on him. Maybe Giavotella or Moustakas in the second spot. I think Cain K’s too much to bat 2nd and Gordon was thriving batting leadoff.
Moustakas makes good contact but don’t know if he’ll hit for high average.
by daveyork on Nov 7, 2011 9:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Aren't second basemen required to hit second?
Gio seems like a good bet.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
the next time a 2b is batting 2 hole for us it'll be colon
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
maybe...
…you didn’t see what you did there.
by kcemigre on Nov 7, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ha ha...i do now...well done me
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 8, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Colon will be lucky just to make the bigs as a util
He is a crappy hitter. That was revealed when he was forced to use wood.
good thing we didnt take your theory seriously when hosmer was awful his first year...
or when moose was bad his 2nd year
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
There were extenuating circumstances with hosmer (wrist, eyeballs) and Moose still showed plenty of power.
I hope I am foolishly wrong. If Colon turns back into a solid prospect I will be absolutely thrilled…..If for no other reason than to keep our streak going of 1st round picks currently on our roster. ’04 Butla, ’05 Gordo, ’06 Hochy, ’07 Moose, ’08 Hoz, ’09 Crow, ….
he's still a very solid prospect
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
He gets on base, I dont see much else.
He looks way too much like Chris Getz (who was a better minorleague hitter) and he is not exactly young for his level.
first year of professional baseball in AA....
the vast majority of his type of players start in high a ball
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
eibner started in low a and was considered a 1st round talent as well
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
another bbcor bat casualty
If eibner and colon had used the new bats in their final college seasons, Im not so sure they are drafted at high. I think Rendon might have been similarly overvalued. Just speculation I know. I got a theory.
you cant just say that any hitter who struggles in their first season
that its due to the aluminum bats. does the bat difference affect contact or power? b/c colon had good contact rates…eibner had good power…it just seems like you’re making this up…unless you’ve got something else
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
The way I understand the new bats
is that they dont effect hitters who have naturally good hand eye coordination at squaring up on the ball consistantly because the sweet spot is smaller. Hence, eibner may lack this skill. His power is for real with either bat, but his accuracy at squaring up consistantly is now exposed.
The new bat also removes the “trampoline” effect that the old aluminium bats had. So for Colon, his true power is now called into question when forced to use a wood bat.
Like i said, I understand my theory is specualtive, but I have done a lot of reading on the topic and I wouldnt say that I am completely uneducated in my analysis.
I cited Rendon
Mostly because his HR’s fell from 26 (old bat) to 5 (new bat). I know their was a shoulder injury, but to me, that was a big red flag.
I know this is a pretty obvious conclusion to make, and every scout in america was aware if it so, to make a judgement base solely on that is shallow.
Still, he did fall from the (largely) consensus #1 to #6 and I wonder if this was an issue for some.
When he was available for KC at 5, I remember wishing they went with someone else even though it would have been considered a pretty good value pick.
everything i read about rendon falling was due solely due to his health
teams were scared shitless of his medical reports
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Um, Yeah
It was actually a highly regarded pick.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 8, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
I thought that was one the scouting and stat guys both liked
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yep
It was a get-a-lower-first-round-talent-by-busting-the-salary-cap pick.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 8, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
It was a right-handed power guy with a backup plan pick.
It was both risky and not risky at the same time. Hard to hate.
who can play a good CF
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
I think his upside might be in the backup plan
how soon before you stick him on the bump?
2 yrs? One?
.213 in A ball for player from his conf isnt promising.
neither here nor there
but Colon did get 273 PA at high-A in 2010.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
first full season then...still a very aggressive assignment
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
I don't understand how you can justify your love for Colon, yet shit on Gia the way you do.
Gia has outhit Colon at two different levels at the same ages. When Gia was 21, he outhit Colon at 21. When Gia was 22, he outhit Colon by a huge margin in AA. Yeah, Colon’s defense MIGHT be better…but that assumption is based on nothing but scouting reports, which everyone knows can be unreliable.
I don’t see any way you can just assume Gia is going to fail (which you do, don’t deny it, it is obvious throughout all of your posts, even if you don’t say it explicitly), yet just assume Colon is going to be fine and will be a competent starting 2B for us.
Killing time until time kills me
colon's defense MIGHT be better?
most reports including one from like 2 weeks ago from sickels have him being an average defender at SS…he’ll be a very good defensive 2b and i think he’ll hit as well. i dont think giavotella is going to hit and i think he’ll be bad defensively. im not saying im definitely going to be right but i got alot of shit here for saying kila wouldnt be any good as well
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
The seasons you're referencing
are comparing Gia when he’s 10 months older than Colon.
Neither is going to be a power hitter, so it all comes down to who will hit. I hope both of them do. It will be an easy decision to trade Gia though because of defense.
Colon improved his BB% and SO%. If you believe they’ll both BABIP about .300 in the bigs then their stats don’t look much different at all.
I thought our CF of the future was Paulo Orlando
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 7, 2011 9:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The Braves just stole him from us
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 7, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
And the Boise State FB team
Stole him from the Braves.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Nov 8, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Jack Marsh and me will be the aces of the 2021 WS team
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 7, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
no way you guys slip past Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the drafts
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Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 7, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Actually our short toss program conflicts with them
BFIB
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 7, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Quick Toss Is
The new black.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
ZIPS on Sanchez
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/royals_-_acquired_sanchez/
Gotta love those comps, but the WAR seems pretty low – is it because the innings total is so low?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I would guess that's the reason
But I’m not sure why he’s only projecting around 130 innings in each of the next two seasons. Is there really any reliable way to “project” the severity of an anticipated injury or injuries and the resulting effect on playing time?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 7, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
I thought ZIPS doesn't project playing time
So I’m confused why he’s even projecting WAR. I’ve long been confused why ZIPS simply doesn’t use a baseline of like 600 PAs for everyone or 200 IP for every SP since inevitably there are questions from users like “WTF WHY DO YOU THINK PLAYER X WILL GET 450 PAS!”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
That would make a lot more sense to me
That way you could just reduce the total production based on the playing time missed using a full season baseline.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 7, 2011 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think the number of innings a pitcher has been able to throw in the past has something to do with what they'll throw in the future
It’s very hard to project, but I wouldn’t want to project 200 or even 180 innings for SP’s like Sanchez and Chen who have very rarely managed to top even 180.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
aren't they probably taking into effect the data that sanchez only goes 5.2 IP per start for his career?
to get to 180 next year, he’d probably have to make 35 starts. not very likely.
I'm sure it takes that into account
As well as the IP/season in recent seasons. And maybe he makes some adjustment for the injury too. Don’t know.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
how will the rotation be set next season?
duffy and sanchez can’t go back to back due to their problems going deep into games. paulino seems like a horse, so i guess he’ll be used to break them up.
My quick check shows
Both Hochevar and Chen had a slightly higher average IP per start than Paulino in 2011 – Paulino’s average was almost exactly 6 IP. Those hoping for less Tim Collins are probably going to be disappointed unless Kevin Chapman is on the ML team next year.
Can anyone paraphrase Keith Law's take on the trade?
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From the headline
Seems to be his usual – “I don’t get why either team made the trade” but the Giants are the big idiots here.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like Keith Law... I really do.
But I don’t think he has ever been a fan of any transaction ever.
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Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 7, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Perhaps he ...
…overvalues prospects?
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
he liked rasmus to the blue jays, escobar there too
although with him, i cant tell how much of it is that he likes what AA is doing in Toronto; or how much hes just trying to pour salt on JP Ricciardi’s wounds
AA is a saberdarling
What does bug me about a lot of transaction analysis in saber-sphere is that they have their darlings – Beane, AA, Jack Z – and those guys frequently get their transactions praised, while everyone else is stupid. It seems more about the process than results. KLaw seems to follow a lot of that thinking.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 7, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, I can't think of a single think Anthopolous has done that has really worked out recently
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
or a single "thing," either
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, after two seasons at the helm he should have had them winning 90+
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
the rays went to the WS in year 3 with friedman
AA will need all the pieces hes added to form a good team soon.
Not sure what your point is
AA hasn’t been perfect, but if if there’s any “bias” towards AA, it’s about both process and results so far. Does anyone think his first couple years haven’t been great for the future of the Jays? I mean, point to a move of his that everyone loved despite the “truth.”
One could get him on the results of trading away Napoli trade, and I didn’t get it at the time (although I didn’t rip it, not a big deal), but if you think he should have seen a season this awesome coming, then you have to give him “credit” for “seeing” Bautista’s 8+ wins season this year.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
i dont mind him trading napoli, pretty much a freak season there
and he had arencibia and d’arnaud in the pipeline to play. i’m not really trying to knock guys like AA, it just seems a little odd to me for GMs to get a bunch of praise before their team actually wins anything. we’ll have to see if toronto can ever become more than an 85-87 win team in that division.
they could be an 85-87 win team and he could still be the best gm in baseball....
although, i think rogers will spend…i think they’ll compete in a couple of years when the sox and yanks are getting old and the contracts become and obstacle
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Rogers might be the wealthiest owning "entity" in the league
it’s definitely up there… people up here who are somewhat “in the know” seem to feel like Rogers will open the checkbook up a bit when it’s time. I can see them going for it in 2013.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, i guess he could be
i guess sometimes i dont like the microanalysis of GMs and sometimes i do.
I do wonder why he hates Travis Snider so much
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by Old Man Duggan on Nov 9, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
The Marcum/Lawrie trade doesn't look bad at all thus far
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by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 7, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but the Bautista contract (hated by "biased towards AA Keith Law" at the time, by the way)
and the Yunel trade/contract are real black marks. And we all know how much the Jays are regretting letting Vernon Wells go.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
I still have no idea how he pulled that off.
He must have some pics of the Angels brass in a farm animal orgy.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 7, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't the Rangers basically do the same thing to get Napoli...
Anaheim just does dumb things
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by averagegatsby on Nov 7, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
napoli came from toronto for a reliever
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea how I forgot this
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 7, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Weed
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
whatever it is, is DEFINITELY isn't Mike Scioscia's fault
he always loved Mike Napoli
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't mean this to be a referendum on AA
I think AA has done a great job. I also think Jack Z did a great job at first. Just seems like a lot of saber analysis still biases towards these hot shots long after they’re making good moves.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Maybe
I’m not sure Jack Z. has gotten that much good press the last year, but obviously people see things differently. You may be right with Beane.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
And obviously
The sabercrowd does not speak with one voice.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
check your sarcasm-dar
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
I remember going to the K in late 2010
for the game where Dyson both homered and set the record for most outs or something. On the way home, talk radio was discussing whether Dyson could be the CF of the future. Deep down, I think few people knew it was realistic.
We’ve come a ways since then.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 7, 2011 10:39 PM EST reply actions
A little useless data
2011 MLE for AAA to MLB’s
0.282/0.334/0.433 13 HRs and 11 SB, 2 WAR player.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
before the player pages became inaccessible
I think Oliver’s 2012 projection for Cain was for a .314 wOBA. Not sure what run environment Brain assumes, but that’s pretty close to league average this season… if his defense is as good as it is reputed to be, that could really turn in to something.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
As good as it’s supposed to be is about a win above replacement I think. He’s not Dyson in terms of speed or arm.
by WURoyal on Nov 7, 2011 11:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
you mean his defense is supposed to be a win above average?
if he’s a league-average offensive player, that makes him about a three-win player. I’ll take that. I’m leery of saying he’s that good (either with the bat or the glove), but yeah, that would be really good.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 7, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Prediction:
I will say “God Dammit Melky” far less often in 2012.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
You know who I miss?
David Howard-Mr versatility, and Rico Rossy…..
They were the greats……
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Rico
and Brian Macrae went back to back once when I was a child listening to the game. I remember thinking that it was a miracle that the #9 and #1 hitters went back to back…….I was thinking that it was the first time this had ever happenned-I thought I was a part of baseball history
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Yeah but Buddy Biancalana
was on Letterman.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
Well how can they compete with that?
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
They dare not even try
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
Maybe if a Royals made appearances
on both the Chevy Chase show AND Arsenio Hall.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Rico Rossy being on the team
Was one of those things that made you say “hmmmmm.”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well.....
Didnt David Howard play all 9 positions in a year once? maybe it was all positions but catcher or all positions but 1B, but I think he played all 9 positions in a year once
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
While this may be true
He does not have a 5 syllable last name
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
you are the classic one-upper arent you.....
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One-upper?
Biancalana is 3 syllables up. And I haven’t even gone to the “his first name is Buddy” well yet.
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
My name is Buddy
It really is…so there
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
I concede your victory ;)
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
I may be wrong.......
but I coulda sworn that happenned. I was a kid too, so I dont know
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Wow
did you know that same David Howard was a special assistant to Theo Epstein in 08 and 09?
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
I now see that David Howard did NOT play all 9 positions in his career even
…but Cookie Rojas did
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Theo is the man.
Bill Pecota played all 9.
DH: Where's the party!
Danny: David Howard and Mike Sweeney! Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!
by David Howards Legacy on Nov 7, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Shane Halter did it all in one game
But not with the Royals
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Joe Frazier died
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
FWIW: Frazier hated Jurrjens
His dying words were: “My only regret is that I didn’t knock out Jair in Zaire”
This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.
by KC_Satchmo on Nov 7, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
HAHA
gotta love that one
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Mitch is so done.
I am guessing Dyson and/or Lough for backups.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
Mitch Is Going
To arbitration. How much would he likely get? He is an ideal 4th OF, good defense at all 3 OF spots, and an emergency catcher. He’s a decent LH bench bat, too. Maybe it’s time for Lough to get his shot, but can he play CF?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
welll...this is interesting from bbtf
ZiPS Projection – Jonathan Sanchez
-——————————————————————————————————
Year W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+ WAR
-——————————————————————————————————
2012 8 8 26 25 136.1 125 66 15 79 126 4.36 95 1.1
2013 8 8 26 25 132.2 122 64 15 77 121 4.34 95 1.1
-——————————————————————————————————
Top Comps: Randy Johnson, Herb Score, Al Leiter
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:26 PM EST reply actions
same randy johnson...the one who walked 416 batters in his 26-28 seasons...
leading the league all 3 years
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
so its a comp of just a certain year for randy johnson? yeah, that guy was a work in progress.
when johnson reigned it in, he was insane. i dont think we’ll ever see anything like him again.
He's been in SF
I bet he can at least Score Herb
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by KC_Satchmo on Nov 7, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
and i think i just accidnetally flagged it...
see above sentence fragment as to what fantasy football does to a guy on monday night
I am the one who knocks.
He Kinda Was
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 9, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
i think that was most projection systems
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
PECOTA had the very optimistic projection of Kila
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
thats right, I remember now. I knew one of them went crazy
which i remember liking very much at the time.
The guys who created and now run PECOTA, ZiPS, Oliver, etc. will all tell you that projecting minor leaguers is extremely difficult to do with any accuracy or reliability because you have to project based on some kind of Major League Equivalent of minor league numbers. And MLE’s really aren’t predictions or projections. Some players do much better than their MLE’s and some much worse. Many players can never make the big jump.
In short, projections based on 3+ years of major league data are worth a lot. With less data than that, don’t bet a penny on them.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder if Kila is expected to make the A's roster
I know he has a lot of competition from similar type players.
I think one thing we could all agree on, it if 'Dirty' can ever...
…get his BB/9 rate down to even 3.5, he will be pretty damn awesome.
Im fully aware that given his age, this is mostly unlikely.
Im curious, how many pitching coaches he has had in his 5 or so seasons in SF. Anybody know? I would love for the answer to be one or two. That would lead me to fantasize that a new “fresh” approach is more likely.
i'm a little worried about how his 90 mph fastball plays in the AL
we shall see. more reason to keep chen around, teach sanchez the art of pitching.
maclin is singlehandedly ruining my fantasy season..and he's not even on my team
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:51 PM EST reply actions
12 more vick passing yards i win....
4 more mccoy receiving yards i win…fucking jeremy maclin
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Off topic..
but I was looking at Ryan Verdugo’s Minor stats and he sure has decent decent K #’s (11 per 9)..A lot of the diehards over at mccoveycove felt he will eventually be a loogy at worst. He seems to be a pretty good throw in on a trade that didnt really need one. If nothing else, more depth in the system.
i'm not really sure how DM made that happen
verdugo isn’t an elite prospect, but i don’t get why sabean felt the need to include him.
dayton makes that happen on alot of his trades....
cortes was basically a throw in in the macdougal trade…lumsden was the guy there
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by billybeingbilly on Nov 7, 2011 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
It's a big part of his trade philosophy
to always get a “throw-in.”
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
I type this with a straight face
somewhere I read that the Braves always try to get pitching back in every trade. Now, obviously the main piece in this trade was pitching, but I still think the same principle is at work here — getting an iffy reliever thrown in.
Personally, if fans of a the organization he’s been in think he’s a “loogy at worst,” my fans-to-reality scouting MLE translates that as “loogy at best,” but hey, still nice to get a throw-in.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly, probably a LOOGY at best
I think your right about the braves always trying to get a pitcher back. one out of 10 “throw-ins” work out pretty well. Maybe a higher %
R/L Splits
2010
69K/29BB in 48 1/3 vs RHB
31K/6BB in 19 1/3 vs LHB
2009
41K/14BB in 30 vs RHB
15K/3BB in 9 1/3 vs LHB
So there’s that.
Your fans-to-reality theory...
is true, except that ‘loogy at worst’ is what the fan thinks the player is BEFORE he is traded from his club (“Buddy Baumen could start or maybe be a setup man, someday, right?!”) When he’s traded to another team, THEN he becomes ‘loogy at best’ (“Ahh, no biggie, Buddy Baumen was never going to be any more than a loogy for us, anyway”)
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Nov 8, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
yes, that also comes into play
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
This isn't the first time where we take a closer look at the "throw-in" and wonder if he is actually
a bigger part of the deal than it first seemed. It would make a little more sense for the deal overall if it’s Melky for Sanchez + B- prospect than Sanchez + C/C- prospect (since Melky looks to be a slightly better value than Sanchez in 2011).
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 8, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
was Odorizzi considered a "throw-in" in the Greinke trade?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
that's one that I was thinking of, where we first focused on the 3 close-to-MLB guys,
then later though, “Oh, maybe the lower-minors guy was actually a big part of the trade”. SOS and Marks, also.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 8, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
uh huh uh huh
what if DM sign another FA CF tomorrow?
YOU NEVER KNOW
I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Nov 8, 2011 12:09 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
AARON FUCKING ROWAND!!!
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .420, Chiefs win% = .354
by averagegatsby on Nov 8, 2011 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
OMG, why do you have to be so right?
Get out of our brain!
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 8, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Thus Doing The
Same as last season but in reverse, restoring the balance of the universe.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Scouting Accolades for Lorenzo Cain
Baseball America
2005: Not listed in top 10
2006: Not listed in top 10
2007: #6 Prospect, Best OF arm
2008: #9 Prospect
2009: #6 Prospect, Best Defensive Outfielder
2010: #8 Prospect
Sickels
2008: #12, C+
2009: #7, B-
2010: #13, C+
I'm pretty sure the Greinke trade set that record last year. There was a big December spike.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
Probably
I don’t really keep track. Any big transaction day from the last few yrs would probably be the top 5
Francoeur signing was also big
But mostly snark
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Holy shite!!
That was waay center (left) field
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Nov 8, 2011 3:38 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Cain doinked a girl I know during fan fest last year.
She’s not that hot, so he must have no confidence. The Process™ has failed.
by NobodyFsWDeJesus on Nov 8, 2011 4:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions
DURING FanFest?
Wow, I thought it was more kid/family-friendly than that. I didn’t see that on last year’s schedule. Which stage was it on?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
DM was just on 810
Cliff notes:
A chance the throw in arm starts season in big league pen.
Talked about keeping enough financial room long term to lock up the young guys when the time comes.
When asked about Sanchez’s walk rates, said by now he is about what he will be. But did say walk rates tend to go down some with age.
The rest was mostly the same as usual.
by spamiam79 on Nov 8, 2011 9:35 AM EST via mobile reply actions
said no hurry
Probably gm talk. He’s not going to say that he needs to lock him up asap. But said both sides are interested
by spamiam79 on Nov 8, 2011 10:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
also Rany tweeted he is going to be on petro to debate jair for wil
by spamiam79 on Nov 8, 2011 10:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hmmm
Could be interesting but I see Rany backing down. He gets far too deferential at times.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I would hope would at least repeat the case against Jurrjens
He made in his last post and talk about the type of pitcher that would merit giving up Myers in terms of talent and team control.
He's a lover, not a fighter
Even when he got into it with the Royals organization, he couldn’t sustain it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
rany's chance for redemption!
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Do you mean the Fire Nick Swartz crusade?
That was an interesting period, although I have no idea whether it influenced the Royals to make a change.
That and there was the whole "I Quit This Bitch!" moment when the Royals didn't call up Kila
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
In hindsight, it is a "blemish" on his record
But seriously folks. Who is most likely to follow Kila, Gio and Cain as the next “decent high minors prospect to inspire a fan crusade for a call-up”? I think Lough is a good bet if Francoeur limps out of the gate.
I think that kind of buzz usually only happens when the player in question is a top 10ish prospect. And Lough isn’t there. He’s been in AAA so long that few, except for the most die-hard Lough fetishist, will be clamoring for his promotion. Of course if Francoeur really tanks, there will be strong calls to bench him and promote….anybody.
I think the crusade-for-a-call-up will be for a pitcher. Basically any AAA starter who has a good ERA could inspire such a movement to replace whichever KC SP who has a poor ERA.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
If Montgomery looks good in spring training, people will go nuts
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
No question
They are half nuts about him right now, after an exceptionally unimpressive season in AAA.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
I hope the Sanchez acquisition will inspire
Some caution on Monty, especially if Chen is brought back or another SP is acquired. I’m sure they were tempted to have him break camp with the ML team last year, and I think as much as he struggled last year as a whole, they should start him in Omaha and make him pitch his way to KC.
At high noon, apparently
Mellinger’s column was pretty good at the laying out where the Royals are. Petro has been on this “they have to cash in the prospects” thing for a while, but his justification for wanting Jurrjens seemed to be “he wins games.” When he said he would jump at the chance to trade Myers for JJ and that Myers probably wouldn’t be enough, I couldn’t keep listening. That’s something I’d expect from a Facebook fan. Wow.
yeah...i wanted to run my car into a wall...
petro didnt use to be that awful
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
yep...definitely thought he was the best baseball mind in town until recently...
danny parkins was much better than him when discussing the trade yesterday and i was fairly confident parkins didnt know what baseball was before yesterday
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Have to disagree.
Didn’t hear Petro discussing it, but in the past I’ve heard Petro talk about baseball and I think he’s an idiot. He calls himself a “numbers guy”, which apparently means that he takes note of batting average, runs batted in, and home runs. Also, I think he means that he has the knack for remembering these numbers for certain players. However, from what I can tell, he is most certainly not astute about baseball. Wish I had an example, but cannot remember. Maybe a good example will pop up at noon…I’m actually quite sure of it.
My memory of Parkins discussing baseball is when the guy (Dave, I think) called in to the show and specifically described Kyle Davies’ mechanical problems in his delivery and Parkins hung up on him and laughed about how he didn’t know what he was talking about. Then he got word on Twitter from Greg Schaum, who stated that he believed “Dave” to be a respected pitching coach and they had Dave back on to explain. From that point on, I think of Parkins as a smug little shit with bad teeth.
yeah...petro hasnt been great...but who in town has been better?
and to be fair to parkins…that dave guy was talking alot of nonsense the first time he came on….he kept going from ‘its all mechanical’ to ‘its all mental’ and back and forth…he sounded like a joke.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 8, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Who is better?
Well, it’s fairly easy to find someone who isn’t a complete joke. Even KK isn’t terrible because he doesn’t claim to be something he isn’t. I disagree normally and I don’t think he understands much about baseball, but his delivery is much better.
I think the best in town is Danny Clinkscale. You can tell he’s done some reading on the topic, not to mention doing shows with Rany a lot. I can see how some things have rubbed off and changed the way he thinks about certain parts of the game. So yeah…he’s not a main guy because his broadcasting skill isn’t as polished, but I think he has the best discussion of baseball stuff.
Jack Harry!
Gib Twyman! He got fired from the Star for plagiarizing something out of Sports Illustrated, for chrissakes.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
I really liked Gib
I always wondered if he got screwed on that deal.
That was the Monday after an NFL rules wknd conference. At the meeting, all these different ideas were proposed (2pts after TDs, etc) to supposedly ‘save the game’, and he basically just wrote down the list of ideas that were discussed, as his.
SI did the same thing, but theirs didnt hit the stands until Weds. I guess the lists were too similar. Apparently he was guilty of something, because he printed an apology letter soon after but too late. Poz came to town then.
I remember seeing him and chatting with him a year later at Argosy Casino when he was editor of Kansas City Magazine.
Two weeks later, he died of a heart attack….
….and so it goes.
at least Rany's analyisis of the trade today...
will be new to our ears since Sanchez was one of three pitchers on the planet he didn’t already have a book on.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Nov 8, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
I listening now….Im not high on jurrjens, but I just hate how often Rany uses luck as an excuse.
I'm high on weed
Just increased the contents of my stash. If I could smoke Jurrjens, I’d probably be high on him too, but I can’t so I’m not.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
I guess I will be keeping some Lorenzocain on my fantasy roster this year
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I've probably seen him more than most here
Cain’s swing is a bit long for MLB I would expect a statline similar to Cameron Maybin last season .264/.323/.393 with above average defense. I don’t think he has Maybin’s power but he will play in a friendlier park also I think he is a slightly better hitter than Cameron but he’ll play in a tougher league.
Jarrod Dyson is the better defender of the two but just by the slightest mark. Cain’s groin was a problem last year so maybe that held him back defensively but I thought he had slightly above average range with a solid arm.
I doubt he’ll be a fan favorite (not that matters) because he’s smooth but not dynamic doesn’t look like much effort is being put it in even though I’m sure he is.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Sadly, you're probably right about the fans.
If he’s a smooth runner and can make a running catch the vast majority of the time, they’ll hate it. Of course, I’m a fan too. I will, as always, do my best to notice when Cain makes a great play without diving, and then tell other fans how stupid they are.
These comments about smoothness remind me...
…of how some underestimated Beltran’s greatness in his first few years (along with the apparent lack of emotion).
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
A late-innings-with-the-lead defensive outfield of Gordon, Cain, Dyson (or some similar variant)
Sounds pretty good to me.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
How can you bench Francoeur's arm??????
Unless Francoeur is injured, Yost won’t be pulling him for a defensive replacement.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously, He Makes
Plays look so easy, and he can play CF. He still has a few good years left as a 4th OF, but it’ll probably be with someone else.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
he'll probably have to since he was only #2 on the Orioles final GM search short list.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
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