Royals Starting Pitching Acquisition: Jonathan Sanchez
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 1:59 PM EST
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PrintName: Jonathan Sanchez is a 28 year left handed pitcher for the Kansas City Royals
Contract: One year left of team control with probably $7M due.
Pitches:
Fastball: Sinking in motion. Averages around 90MPH and used 60% of the time.
Slider: Averages 81MPH and used 20% of the time
Change up: Averages 82 MPH and used 20% of the time
On all his pitches, he is not able to maintain much velocity on them over the course of a game. Here is a plot of the first game of the 2011 season that Jonathan pitched (other games are worse than this one):
All of the pitches drop in speed anywhere from 4-6 MPH.
Now here is Hochevar's numbers looked at the end of the season:
Luke's pitches stay in the same range over the course of the entire game. Jonathan's declining speed will cause him to struggle later in games.
Results:
Control
| Year | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 |
| 2006 | 4 | 40.0 | 7.4 | 5.2 |
| 2007 | 4 | 52.0 | 10.7 | 4.9 |
| 2008 | 29 | 158.0 | 8.9 | 4.3 |
| 2009 | 29 | 163.1 | 9.8 | 4.9 |
| 2010 | 33 | 193.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 |
| 2011 | 19 | 101.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 |
| Total | 118 | 708.0 | 9.4 | 4.8 |
Jonathan's strikeout total is impressive. The total will probably get worse by pitching now in the American League. I will not get into the talent distribution between the AL and NL, but he won't see the pitcher bat 2 to 3 times a game. He had a 6.5K/BB ratio vs pitchers and only 1.8K/BB vs. other hitters. This drop in Ks is seen with AL pitchers having a K/9 about 0.4 less than the NL (BB/9 is the same). I would expect his K/9 to be around 8.5 next season.
The walk rate is a disaster. He has shown no signs of getting it under control. Since he came in the league in 2006, he has the highest BB/9 among all pitchers at 4.8 with over 700 IP. The next highest total belongs to Doug Davis at 4.5. I would not worry too much about the large jump last season. Most of the extra walks happened in the 5 games before he went on the DL when he had a 0.84 K/BB.
One other huge issue with being a high K and BB pitcher is that he throws a ton of pitches to get through an inning. On average, doesn't make it through 5.5 innings per start. In 2010, he made 33 starts. Roy Halladay was able to throw 250 innings in his 33 starts. Sanchez couldn't get over 200. The bullpen better be 4-5 deep on the days he starts.
Batted ball data
| Year | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB |
| 2006 | 0.45 | 0.301 | 35.8% | 3.6 % |
| 2007 | 1.38 | 0.363 | 39.1% | 14.8% |
| 2008 | 0.80 | 0.317 | 41.1% | 8.4% |
| 2009 | 1.05 | 0.276 | 40.7% | 10.3% |
| 2010 | 0.98 | 0.252 | 41.5% | 9.8% |
| 2011 | 0.80 | 0.272 | 42.4% | 9.2% |
| Total | 0.93 | 0.287 | 40.8% | 9.5% |
Generally, these values are close to league average and should not be a cause of any concern. By changing ball parks, he should see his HR numbers improve. The HR PF in San Francisco were 82 (LHB) and 99 (RHB). In Kansas City, the numbers drop to 71 and 85.
Run Estimators
| Year | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | WAR |
| 2006 | 4.95 | 4.17 | 5.46 | 4.96 | 0.5 |
| 2007 | 5.88 | 4.76 | 4.06 | 3.70 | 0.1 |
| 2008 | 5.01 | 3.85 | 4.09 | 4.09 | 2.8 |
| 2009 | 4.24 | 4.17 | 4.14 | 4.04 | 1.9 |
| 2010 | 3.07 | 4.00 | 3.94 | 3.83 | 2.4 |
| 2011 | 4.26 | 4.30 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 0.6 |
| Total | 4.26 | 4.11 | 4.17 | 4.08 | 8.3 |
The Total line is fairly consistent with all values ranging from 4.08 to 4.26.
Injuries:
July 2007: Rib Cage Injury (missed 18 days)
August 2008: Left shoulder Injury (missed 19 games)
July 2011: Left bicep tendinitis (missed 32 games)
August, 2011: Sprained left ankle (missed 39)
He is not the healthiest of pitchers. He has already missed time for 2 left arm injuries. The injury didn't cause too much of a drop off in his FB speed:
Conclusion:
I like the trade on the surface. The Royals got rid of an expendable commodity in Cabrera to fill a need in the starting pitching staff. Sanchez comes over has a high K and BB pitcher. These extra pitches lead to short starts and extra work on the bullpen. Also he has spent a couple of trips on the DL in the past for problems with his throwing arm. He looks to be a nice addition to the team, but he would be a great pick up if he could get the walks down. Dave Eiland, it is time to earn your pay.
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does he have two years left?
as far as i know he hasn’t signed a contract and has more than five years of service time
Cots says one year of team control
And then FA in 2013.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
But doesn't Cots have his service time at 4.071?
Or does that not include the 2011 season yet?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Does not include 2011
Cots doesn’t usually update that until very late in the offseason, IIRC.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
So is it only one year left?
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Thank god we have a good and deep bullpen
The Royals have some SP’s that don’t tend to go deep into games. It’s nice to have a bullpen that can pick them up. And in these days of apparently mandatory 7-man bullpens (and occasionally 8), I’m not so worried about the bullpen getting burnt up. That’s a lot of pitchers who can eat a lot of innings. And, quite frankly, relievers can handle considerably more than the 40-70 innings they usually pitch in a season.
I just hope the Royals have an improved long reliever/swingman in 2012. I think they can put together a good 7 out of:
Soria
Holland
Coleman
Wood
Crow
Collins
Herrera
Etc.
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I assume Moore was just doing standard PR by talking up the trade when he said that about Verdugo
He looks like Collins-lite to me. Collins very high K-rate was maintained throughout the minors (still insanely high in AA). For Verdugo, it dropped significantly when he got to AA. And of course he has a worse walk problem than Collins. I don’t know if he’ll ever be ready for the majors, but certainly not in 2012. Not that this would necessarily hold Moore back…
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Although he shifted to a starter at AA
So I would imagine that would impact his K-rate negatively as he was learning to be parsimonious with his pitches/effort. As a reliever (and I believe that’s how the Royals view him) he might be closer to the majors. Since he was assigned to AAA, I imagine he’ll get a look in ST.
I would be happy to see 2-4 of these guys gone in trades.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Me too.
They should be able to restock from without and within fairly easily. It would probably lead to a bit of a downgrade to the bullpen, but with a greater improvement elsewhee.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Do teams really get back good returns when selling middle relievers in the off-season?
I can’t remember any, but these types of deals would fly under my radar.
I’d imagine you can get a decent return at the trade deadline when some contender is desperate and you have exactly what they want, but in the off-season, I’d expect every team to feel good about their chances to piece together their middle relief corp until the season proves otherwise.
Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs!
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Crisp was a decent return I guess
Didn’t work out, but he had a good chance to be an above average regular CF.
Jacobs was more the type of transaction I’d expect. Middle reliever for non-tender candidate. Needle doesn’t move.
I wouldn't argue that young, cheap, talented relievers with a
I wouldn’t argue that young, cheap, talented relievers with a good MLB season under their belt and multiple cost controlled years remaining are only worth a non-tender candidate on the open market. That doesn’t mean they are easily flippable for good MLB regulars. But I think you can often/sometimes find a motivated GM who overvalues setup men and needs to fill a hole who will give up more than he’s receiving in terms of real value.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Great! Put the entire bullpen on the block!
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
OTish
Comment from an article I wrote on Cain and batting order for Fangraphs fantasy side:
I would not be shocked to see them move Alcides Escobar to second in the lineup to bunt and play small ball.
If Escobar is batting second. That would be epic.
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I wouldn't expect that to happen, but it wouldn't shock me either.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Who does bat 2nd? What about Frenchy?
I know his OBP is not optimal for that spot, but he’s a better option than Gia and Cain to start the year…and you’re not putting Moose or Escobar there. I think the idea of Frenchy batting 2nd is mildly intriguing…at least to start the year. If he falls off a cliff or Gia starts hitting I think you can adjust obviously…but to start the year, I wouldn’t mind letting Frenchy have a shot at it.
LF Gordon
RF Frenchy
DH Butler
1B Hosmer
3B Moustakas
C Perez
CF Cain
2B Gio
SS Escobar
Killing time until time kills me
RESIGN, JASON KENDALL!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 12 recs
I logged in
just to push the rec total into double digits. I literally laughed out loud.
by i before e except after Grrr on Nov 8, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 9, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
What about Billy?
If Cain and Escobar are at 8 and 9, with Gordo at 1, Billy would have a great chance to drive them in with a double, or a SB and single.
Plus, Billy has the best OBP on the team and having him at first for Hosmer would create a big hole on the right side for Hosmer to hit through.
And it keeps the L-R-L-R-L thing going at the top of the order.
LF Gordon
DH Butler
1B Hosmer
3B Moustakas
C Perez
2B Gio
CF Cain
SS Escobar
having him at first for Hosmer would create a big hole on the right side for Hosmer to hit through.
Because opposing teams would be so worried about Billy running on them?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe they're all going to follow Gold Glove Hosmer's Guide to Positioning
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
No, because Billy's extra-largeness
creates a tiny gravitational black hole wherever he is.
And obviously, only Hosmer has the power to hit a ball THROUGH a black hole.
That information is somewhat classified.
by Karte on Nov 8, 2011 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'd be ok with that.
Hitting him in front of Butler and Hos would surely give him some pitches to hit. Might mitigate his regression this year. Less likely to get doubled up than Billy.
I would like to eventually see Moose in the 2nd spot.
I just see Dayton and Yost wanting a speedster at the top of the lineup. They have mentioned that Gordon is not an idea lead off candidate.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
There is a noticeable hole in the line-up without Melky
We have all spring training to sort that out, and Yost has been pretty good at line-up construction, so I’m not too worried as long as Getz isn’t back and leading off.
Also, I either Escobar or Cain could be viable as #2 batters. Maybe not immediately, but perhaps as early as July or August 2012.
Cain And Gio
Make us fairly RHB heavy. Most logical orders wind up with 3 or 4 RHBs in a row at the bottom of the order.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
A couple lefty/switch hitters on the bench (who can actually hit, sorry no Getz allowed) would help with that
Mitch/Dyson, Pena, Falu?
I Don't Think
Brena will be back. You really think Irving will finally get a chance?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
I have no information or insights on Pena or Falu
But their ability to switch hit seems as good of a reason as any to give em a shot over our other options.
Why wouldn't Brayan be back?
If Manny Pina has options left, and Brayan agrees to play for 500 grand, he’s probably our backup catcher.
by moregritplease on Nov 8, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Depends how much Moore values defense at catcher
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
And Veteran Grit
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Peña would be useful as a lefty-hitting backup catcher
Let him hit the bad right-handed pitchers about 30-40 times a season. Let Sal hit all the lefties and the good righties so that he gets more accustomed to facing real MLB pitching, about 130 games next year.
On the other hand, I’ve suggested signing Kelly Shoppach for the minimum. He’d cost half a million less than Brayan, though that is sort of chump change. He led the league in throwing out base stealers and is a veteran who could mentor Sal. He mashes lefties and cannot hit righties at all, so you’d platoon him and let him play when the other team has a lefty pitching, or perhaps if we’re playing a steal-crazy team. Sal would hit against righties, giving him practice against pitchers with the advantage over him.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
by Juancho on Nov 8, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
The only time I remember really watching him was his no-hitter
So obviously that was his best stuff, but he does leave the ball up a lot – not sure how that will play at the K. He also seems to be “effectively wild” at times – much like Edwin Jackson I suppose. He seems to induce a lot of swings outside the strike zone.
Jonathan Sanchez is what we all hoped Jeremy Affeldt would become for years.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
he does leave the ball up a lot – not sure how that will play at the K.
That’s always risky, but at the K it’s less risky than the vast majority of teams and parks. The combination of park factors and good OF defense will help him. Although, the good OF defense mostly comes from a CFer with very good range and two corner OFers with very good arms. The arms of Gordon and Francoeur aren’t going to prevent a ton of Sanchez-induced flyballs from becoming hits.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I found D.Cameron's Fangraphs piece yesterday pretty interesting...
…on the effect of Sanchez pitching up in the zone so much. It kind of made me think a bit about what people mean when they call someone “effectively wild.”
There doesn’t seem to have been much effect on HR rate, though. His HR/9 has generally been around league average, with his HR/FB a little better than average.
And, of course, as NYR points out, a move to the K could improve both of those numbers.
BTW...
…doesn’t it just kind of seem weird that a guy throwing a sinking fastball, slider and change puts so many pitches up above the belt? That strikes me as an odd approach to pitching.
it's almost like his control is poor
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, now...
…don’t go gettin’ all fancy on me with your sabermetric fanciness.
Honestly, I may be giving more credence to Cameron’s theory that Sanchez is pitching up on purpose than it deserves. But I also think the theory’s pretty interesting, and on that basis I’m usually pretty willing to grant the benefit of the doubt and see where it takes me.
Is he consistently pitching high in the strike zone? Because if he’s just spreading it around, including pitches up in the zone, then how does one come to the conclusion that this is intentional, and not just being wild?
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Good questions...
…and I’m not the most qualified person to answer any of them. But, just looking at the fangraphs heatmaps, you can see that both things are going on: He is a little bit “all over the place,” but he’s also up in the zone more often than not. Here’s 2011, vs. righties, which seems pretty representative (this pattern is more pronounced in 2008-2009, but practically non-existent in 2010, for whatever that’s worth):
He does like to go up and in on righties apparently
Then again, I’m not sure that is Sanchez’s heatmap at all. I think that’s an ultra-violet image of the crab nebula.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
The heat map is from the batter's perspective?
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Anybody know anything about bicep tendinitis?
Specifically, does it tend to re-appear or lead to other injuries? Or does it tend to heal completely with no lasting effects?
I Think Younger
People have a better chance of total recovery, but from what I know, nothing is certain. A lot depends on what exactly caused it.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 8, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Playing his pratice pads to the eight-track of "Hemispheres"
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
practice pads....I should get some of these for my 10 year old daughter
2012 would have been the obvious choice, maybe Moving Pictures….I guess that’s why you get the big bucks.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Nov 8, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Any way to look at his strike/ball ratio for each pitch?
I’ve gleaned from a few articles that he has trouble throwing his slider for strikes, which leads to a lot of the walks, but not sure if that is totally accurate.
I could get it from the raw pitch FX data.
It may be a bit (2 other articles I am working on).
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
If you're doing a followup at some point...
…I’d also be interested in called strikes/balls within the zone, in connection with the topic discussed in yesterday’s fangraphs piece.
I ran some basic numbers
Here are the high K guys mentioned in Dave’s aritcle:
Name, % of total pitches high in strike zone compared to lower in the zone.
Gallorado 46.3%
Lincecum, 51.9%
Sanchez, 52.2%
Kershaw, 54.9%
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 8, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
At any given moment, what are the odds he’s even trying to throw the slider for strikes? But you could look at his heat maps if you want to see where he actually does throw them. To my cursory glance, his control doesn’t look a whole lot worse with the slider than with the other pitches.
Yikes
Zips has Sanchez at 8.3 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.36 ERA.
What's the FIP on that?
I assume it isn’t particularly close to 4.36.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Using one formula I found, and assuming 160 ip, I got a FIP of 4.54
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
And I think, in last year's run environment, that kind of FIP over 160 ip isn't even 1 WAR
But, if he can manage that kind of WAR over 200 ip, he’s Colby Lewis (2011) and 2.3 WAR.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
That's because I screwed up
Corrected:
But, if he can manage that kind of FIP over 200 ip, he’s Colby Lewis (2011) and 2.3 WAR
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball geek flame war!
It is so on.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
That was my guess
But how does 40 extra innings at that same FIP produce more WAR than the first 160 do?
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain
Don’t ask me. The relationship between FIP, IP and WAR is more complicated than the facile description I gave above. But I don’t know the ins and outs of it.
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by Scott McKinney on Nov 8, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
It makes sense, though
From a supply and demand perspective, a pitcher who can throw 200 innings is a lot more valuable than one who can throw 160. You go deeper into games, saving the manager from using weaker bullpen arms in the sixth and seventh innings.
I think the WAR math would only make sense if innings pitched are included in the definition of a “replacement-level” starting pitcher. If a replacement-level starter can throw between 120 and 160 innings with a certain ERA, a pitcher who throws 200 innings with the same ERA would be linearly more valuable, but exponentially more valuable above replacement.
by moregritplease on Nov 8, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
at 160 innings
I have a 4.54 FIP at 1.1 WAR, and over 200, 1.4 WAR
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
That looks like a linear IP-to-WAR relationship
I’m even more confused now.
Can anybody suggest a good primer?
Keep park factors in mind
When converting FIP into WAR, the Fangraphs version adjusts for park factors. Colby Lewis posting a 4.54 FIP while pitching half his games in an extreme hitter’s park is more valuable than if he posted the same FIP while pitching for the Rays in an extreme pitcher’s park.
This explains why Colby Lewis had 2.3 WAR based on a 4.54 FIP in 200 IP, while Jeremy Hellickson had 1.4 WAR based on 4.44 FIP in 189 IP.
the Fangraphs glossary has a section on WAR for pitchers
with lots of good links.
oops, sorry for the confusion
I didn’t read the above carefully enough…I thought we were talking about Sanchez, or I would have messed with park factors and done other stuff more.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 8, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs WAR for pitchers confuses the heck out of me
For Ex: 2011
Jeff Francis: 183 IP 4.48 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 4.82 ERA, 4.29 xFIP,
2.6 WAR
Hiroki Kuroda: 202 IP 7.17 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP,
2.4 WAR
Now, I know the ballparks were a little different, but does anybody really think that Francis was MORE valuable than Kuroda last year?
For context, here's what the Royals staff did last year:
Hoch….: 5.8K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.68
Francis: 4.5K/9, 1.9 BB/9, .9 HR/9, 4.82
Chen….: 5.6K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.77
Paulino: 8.6K/9, 3.5 BB/9, .7 HR/9, 4.11
Duffy…..: 7.4K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64
Davies..: 7.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.75
As mentioned in yesterday's thread
if you enjoyed Danny Duffy’s starts last year, you will love Sanchez’s starts next year.
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