Royals looking at Carlos Zambrano -- and I'm OK with it?

by seelztlb on Nov 8, 2011 1:55 PM EST

MLB Trade Rumors is reporting the Royals are expressing interest in Carlos Zambrano.

This announcement is most likely to illicit one of two responses, depending on how closely you follow baseball. 1) Carlos Zambrano? Awesome, I've heard of him. or 2) Carlos Zambrano?! &$^*$ he's crazy, old and expensive.

I think when it boils down to it, I'm in the second camp, but I'm still OK with the idea of acquiring him.

Yes, Carlos Zambrano is 30. Yes he hasn't pitched 200 innings since 2007. Yes he's….volatile. Yes, he's making a metric buttload of money for this year. But other than last year he hasn't posted an ERA+ under 111 since 2002, when he was 21.

The fact of the matter is, dude can pitch…when he wants to.

Make no mistake, I'm not willing to part with any kind of significant prospect(s) for Carlos Zambrano, nor am I willing to take on even close to a majority of the money he is owed, but I don't think we'll have to. The Cubs are desperate to get rid of him.

If we can get Carlos Zambrano for a Clint Robinson or a David Lough (or some other AAAA-type player that doesn't have a future in this organization anyway) and $5 million, to me its a gamble worth taking.

If the change of scenery does him some good, and we get 2009 Carlos Zambrano (127 ERA+, 8.3 K/9, 4.8 BB/9), that's not bad for a B prospect and $5 million.

If he attacks anyone in the dugout or demonstrates any other psychopathic tendencies on or off the field, we cut his ass and go on our merry way without really jeopardizing anything moving forward.

The other caveat to my approval of this development is that Carlos Zambrano has to be the third pitcher we acquire this year (I don't mean chronologically). Or, if he isn't, it can't be for lack of trying. Zambrano or no, we still need to be very aggressively shopping for a top-flight start pitcher with multiple years of team control.

Zambrano is a risk worth taking, but he needs to be icing on the cake.

Tweet Comment 21 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Dude just needs some Frenchy tutelage...

…and some naked BP.

by Tracer Bullet 82 on Nov 8, 2011 2:01 PM EST reply actions

Also, you forgot to give Fanshot credit to...

…nevermind.

by Tracer Bullet 82 on Nov 8, 2011 2:13 PM EST reply actions

stop it

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 8, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

For me it would take a helluva lot more than $5M to take on that contract and the potential headache

Especially if the Royals are giving up anything of value (and yes, there is SOME value to Robinson or Lough). Even with $5M, the Royals would still be on the hook for $13M in 2012, and potentially (though certainly not likely) $19.25M for next year with his vesting option.

They would have to work out a provision of the deal that if Zambrano’s option somehow vested, the Cubs would agree to pick up at least $5M next year, maybe more. Which would be funny and awesome, because the Royals would essentially be saying, “Look, we’ll take this guy, but if he turns out to be really, really good for us, then you’re going to have to pay us more money later.”

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions

Sorry, Royals pay $5 million, Cubs pay remainder.

by seelztlb on Nov 8, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

I don't like the MLBTR summary

610 asked the question with the goal of starting a rumor. Dayton never said their were talks. He answered a hypothetical question in which the Cubs would nearly give away Zambrano. If he said no, that would be crazy. What would you expect him to say, other than yes we would explore that option, Zambrano is a good guy, etc. He can’t say “no way, that mother f#$%&r is crazy and we wouldn’t take him even if the Cubs paid us.” That response would be unprofessional.

by bas on Nov 8, 2011 3:00 PM EST reply actions

Disagree

Read some of Dayton’s actual quotes about Zambrano. That goes FAR beyond an obligatory, “Sure, our job is to give due consideration to any possible move that can make our ballclub better.” He went out of his way to give more than GM-Speak about it.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 8, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Exactly.

Hence my long comment below.

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Nov 8, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Yep

Said the same thing on the mlbtr thread. He gave Z some love – I think Dayton has at least kicked around the idea.

by thelaundry on Nov 8, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Here's the...

…Chicago Tribune version of the story. Some of the Dayton quotes are interesting:

“We would have to explore it because that’s what you should do,” Moore said in the interview. "You should explore every opportunity. Carlos Zambrano is a heckuva competitor. [ME: The problem is that he competes with his teammates—-upbraiding them, getting on their nerves, etc.]

"Carlos Zambrano has had a lot of success in the major leagues. Carlos Zambrano is actually a very pleasant, easy-going, classy person off the field [ME: Except when he quits on your team]. Sometimes, as with all of us, the competitiveness takes over and brings out qualities in us that we are not proud of. [ME: Such as punching your teammates.]

“Obviously, the Cubs grew tired of some of his outbursts but I believe in our coaching staff and we’ll always take a chance and a risk on certain players,” Moore said. “We’ll see how that particular situation unfolds.”

After watching Zambrano his entire career in Chicago, I think this would be a COLOSSAL mistake. …Am I making myself clear?

Why would you bring in an erratic player who punches and shows up his teammates—-especially on a team that has exhibited reasonably good chemistry?

Plus, Z’s arm has gone down hill. His max fastball has gone from around 98-99 to about 92. He’s worn out.

This would be a stupid, ridiculous move.

by timlacy on Nov 8, 2011 3:05 PM EST reply actions

It COULD be a collassal mistake, and he’d have to have a very short leash, but if the cost is so minimal, why not take a flier on him? I would imagine it would be pretty clear before spring training was over whether or not he realized this was his last chance. There is return there, he has shown himself as recently as 2009 to be a very capable pitcher when he has his head on straight. If it turns out he is still a nutjob, you cut ties and move on.

by seelztlb on Nov 8, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe Paulino could talk some sense into him

by Loose Seal on Nov 8, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

2009 is a long time ago (for a 30 year old pitcher)

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 8, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

Obviously it’s not a guarantee he will play well. There is no such thing, but if it were even close to a guarantee we’d have to pay a king’s ransom to get him, and I would be against that. In the world of pitchers that could be had for this price, a low-level prospect or two and ~$5 million, Zambrano has a ton of upside.

by seelztlb on Nov 8, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know about a "ton" of upside...

…but I agree generally with what you’re saying. Zambrano was a 2 WAR pitcher as recently as 2010 — a season in which the Cubs inexplicably stuck him in the bullpen for a month or two. If, as Fangraphs estimates, 1 WAR is worth roughly $5 million on the free agent market, there’s a strong possibility the Royals could get a solid return on a $5 million investment if they can keep Z under control and on the mound regularly. If you can get him close to 200 innings, he could be a 2 to 3 WAR pitcher far exceeding that $5 million pretty easily.

A couple problems beyond his obvious behavioral issues: 1) He has full 5 and 10 rights, so he may reject a trade to Kansas City, and 2) He really likes to hit, so he may not want to go to an AL team at all.

Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.

by daver on Nov 9, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

How is his 2B defense?

Maybe Dayton would let him play there every once in a while on his off days.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

That would be fun to watch.

As you may know, he’s one of the better hitting pitchers in baseball. So there have been semi-serious suggestions that a team try him at left field or first base. But I don’t think that would go too well.

Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.

by daver on Nov 9, 2011 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Worked for Rick Ankiel

Sort of…depends on how loosely you define “worked”.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Am I wrong in thinking that the Cubs released Zambrano?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Nov 8, 2011 5:16 PM EST reply actions

I thought they put him on the "restricted list"

whatever that means.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Nov 8, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions

You are correct.

He was placed on the restricted list in August. When he was eligible to return, the team decided he wasn’t in playing shape so he never threw another pitch in 2011. He’s pitching Venezuelan winter ball right now.

Baseball is pitching, offensive production, baserunning and defense.

by daver on Nov 9, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions