Royals-Giants Sanchez-Cabrera Trade Link Roundup & Analysis
by Freneau on Nov 9, 2011 2:17 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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It appears the overall consensus is that this was a good trade for the Royals. Joe Sheehan, in his newsletter, made the point that in the last two years, Melky Cabrera has been traded for a solid #2 starter (Javy Vasquez) then outright released and now traded for a possible back of the rotation guy (with huge upside according to many) like Sanchez. His point was even within the game, there's still an incredible over-reaction to last year's data. Sheehan isn't a huge Moore guy, but implicit in that analysis is that Moore's two Melky-related moves were good deals.
As far as I can tell, I'm just about the most negative evaluator of this trade out there, which is fine and maybe predictable. I don't hate the trade, I just don't love it. The structure of the trade is solid: moving roster excess in the OF to address a need in the rotation. However, I have big doubts about Sanchez being much more than back of the rotation filler in the AL, and given that he's a FA after 2012, there's no long-term gain. At the point at which Melky was traded in November, you have to wonder if this is the best the Royals could do. As I said on the day of the trade, I think I'd rather have had the trade be for two Verdugo-esque players than Verdugo+Sanchez.
- Giants' Melky Cabrera trade may be a turning point
- Melky for Jonathan: Knee-Jerk Analysis - McCovey Chronicles
- Royals Starting Pitching Acquisition: Jonathan Sanchez - Royals Review
- Rany on the Royals: For Want Of A Pitcher: Jonathan Sanchez.
- Jonathan Sanchez Isn’t As Good As His K% | FanGraphs Baseball
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As far as I can tell, I'm just about the most negative evaluator of this trade out there, which is fine and maybe predictable.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Nov 9, 2011 2:22 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Can I get a Rany ruling here?
Sanchez will be a free agent at the end of 2012, so this is strictly a one-year rental for now. As such, I’d put his trade value somewhere south of Ryan Dempster/Anibal Sanchez territory, the sort of player the Royals should surrender no more than a Grade B prospect or a pair of Grade C prospects for.
Does this mean that Rany would have traded a B prospect for one year of Sanchez? FTR, according to Sickels most recent rankings, the Royals B prospects are Cuthbert, Odorizzi and Herrera. Does anyone here think it would have been a good idea to trade one of those prospects (and their potential) for one year of Sanchez who hopefully will be a league average SP?
Am I just Rany bashing here, or does that make no sense whatsoever?
At least he later realized what he is, or what he’s become:
Maybe I’m naïve, and maybe I’m unrealistically optimistic. (Check that: there’s no "maybe" on the second one.)
I wish he’d try to be more realistic. And, of course, Rany’s foot is still on the gas, bigtime.
If it turns out that he is – if the Royals don’t add another starter between now and spring training – it will be a missed opportunity of sorts. But everything I wrote about the Royals’ starting pitching options over the last month remains valid today. The Royals have the same assets – and the same reasons – to trade for a second starting pitcher that they had for the first. Don’t stop here, Dayton. A 2012 playoff spot is there for the taking.
He’s really, really eager to trade prospects.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
If you don't watch yourself
Rany is going to get on a plane to New York and give you a particular rough dermabrasion.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You are Rany bashing.
If I am reading correctly, Rany is saying that Sanchez is not as good as Dempster/A.Sanchez, and only has 1 year remaining. He would only trade AT MOST a grade B or 2 “C” prospects for those two. I dont think he is refering to trading a grade B for J.Sanchez.
They definitely should consider trading some of their prospects for another starter.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Nov 9, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
That's the way I interpreted it
Sanchez’s theoretical value is a B prospect. I don’t know if he’s saying one way or another if he would indeed trade a B prospect for Sanchez if he were running the Royals. I guess you could infer he would since he seems to be pushing for an all-in strategy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think he's saying that Sanchez's theoretical value is less than two guys whose value is a B prospect
That was how I read the sentence and I think r_i_c is saying that’s how he read it too.
He calls himself *unrealistic* (ly optimistic)
and then claims that all his points (regarding the starting pitching) remain valid. If Rany can explain and convince me how he can be unrealistic and valid at the same time, he wins. Until then, I think you’re good to disagree.
He can, but he also can't.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
The paradox
A Royals fan that is optimistic AND grounded in facts
Rany doesn't have the same opinion as Sickels
… and isn’t referring to John’s rankings. From part 5 of his series on available pitchers, here’s Rany’s description of what he means by Grade B prospect:
**: By Grade B, I mean one of the prospects in the second tier: Colon, Dwyer, Ventura, Adam, Eibner, Herrera, Bonifacio.
Cuthbert and Odorizzi are both what he considers Grade A prospects, along with Myers, Montgomery, Lamb and Starling.
Rany wasn't using Sickel's rating system
He was using ‘A’ and ‘B’ as tiers among Royals prospects. Here’s what he said:
*: By Grade A, I mean one of the Royals’ top six prospects, in no particular order: Myers, Montgomery, Lamb, Odorizzi, Starling, and Cuthbert.
**: By Grade B, I mean one of the prospects in the second tier: Colon, Dwyer, Ventura, Adam, Eibner, Herrera, Bonifacio.
And as Royal in Cincinnati said, Rany would only trade at most one player from Group B in exchange for Dempster/A.Sanchez who he values over Jonathan Sanchez, so it’s a bit of a reach to say he’d have been willing to give up one of the Group B players for Jonathan Sanchez.
As for the foot on the gas, again, you just disagree with him on whether the Royals can contend in 2012. I suspect he’s looked into it more thoroughly than you have, but time will tell who was right.
As for whether it’s Rany bashing, these criticisms were at least clearly defined. The Grade A/B argument was clearly off-the-mark, but it was an understandable confusion.
I wish people would stop just throwing around A, B and C prospect grades
This isn’t a criticism of Rany in particular, as he’s just one of many who do it, including me. But if there’s no standarized meaning for an A, B, or C prospect, then the labels have no meaning.
I suspect he’s looked into it more thoroughly than you have, but time will tell who was right.
We really have no idea how thoroughly he’s looked into it. More importantly, we have no idea what methodology he’s using. He needs to use projections for each player on the team and reasonable playing time estimates. What projection has he used? Oliver? Is he making his own projection for each player? Or is he just using 2011 stats or the 2011 run differential? I don’t think his analysis (of which we’ve as yet seen nothing but him using the 2011 run differential) deserves the benefit of the doubt.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 9, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
There's no standardized meaning for any grades, but people are measured by GPA all the time
I think it’s a little much to ask Rany to stop using a widely used rank ordering system just because different people assign different values to the different ranks. Especially if he’d defined each of his rank in a post in this series.
I’d love to get rid of GPA (great point in the NYTimes article on why people leave science majors is because those majors have lower grades for no reason) but there’s a reason that it’s so persistent. In the absence of any standardized ranking system (and with respect to classroom performance and minor league prospects, we do have an absence), people are going to use some ranking system, and all we can really do is ask them to define their terms. Schools generally do not, but Rany has here, so I don’t see that there’s any ground to criticize him.
I think it’s a little much to ask Rany to stop using a widely used rank ordering system just because different people assign different values to the different ranks. Especially if he’d defined each of his rank in a post in this series.
If he’s going to create his own meaning for A, B and C, given how commonly those terms are used for prospects, he should have used other labels. But again, this isn’t really so much a criticism of Rany as it is the usage of those labels for prospects at all. Everybody has a different meaning for them, rendering the labels meaningless. And yes, I think people do understand, generally speaking what an A, B, C, D and F mean in academic grades. But in various prospect grading systems, a B prospect can be a very, very good prospect (Sickels) or barely better than a fringe prospect (Rany). That makes for some pretty useless grades.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 9, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's the same problem everywhere
When I last saw the data (about ten years ago), a student with an A- average in the School of Social Work was in the bottom third of their class. A student with an A- average in the School of Engineering was in the top sixth.
You can see the same thing if you look across schools. At KU and K-State, women average a 3.09 GPA. At Nebraska, they average a 3.22 GPA (the difference sounds small, but given how tight the distributions are, it’s very significant).
We get along fine with WAR referring to two different calculations. If Rany means Sickels grades, he can say that. Otherwise, he should define what he means. He’s done that here. Since he’s done that, his grade are perfectly useful. Maybe he should hyperlink back to his defining the grades, but you can’t say you don’t know what he means by his ratings when he’s listed the exact players they refer to.
I respectfully disagree with almost all of the above, but I think the point isn’t sufficiently interesting for us to continue debating it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 9, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
To avoid being misunderstood, qualify the "B" or "C" or whatever
“I wouldn’t trade any more than a B prospect, such as David Lough” (hypothetically speaking)
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 9, 2011 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
Hm...
If only he had defined these definitions in an article that he was referencing
You asked, so, yeah, this does come off a bit of Rany bashing. And now it sounds like “going off on a tangent complaining about prospect grades to sound like I was right all along”
I read that Rany sentence to mean Dempster/Anibal were worth a B prospect or two Cs
And therefore J Sanchez was worth less than that.
As for the enthusiasm to trade prospects to win now, maybe Rany’s dying. Or maybe some other great Royals fan he know is. Otherwise, I can’t explain it. Having waited this long for a team with promise, I’d think most of us can stand to wait a little longer to maximize the chances of realizing that promise.
Otherwise, I can’t explain it.
I can explain it. Or rather, I think he explained it when he said, “I’m unrealistically optimistic.” That pretty much says it all. I’m not saying that therefore everything he writes about the Royals is therefore worthless analysis, but it does help to explain his “let’s go all-in and win now” philosophy.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 9, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
We're talking about the writer
who produced an article entitled Hope and Faith in a fit of untempered enthusiasm for the 2007 Royals, who subsequently took the field and fell just a wee bit short of his dreams for them.
So I think you can definitely know in advance of what you’re getting when you read Rany on the Royals; set your expectations appropriately. If you aren’t into it, fine, but there’s nothing to be gained by dwelling on your expectations.
Two things stand out for me about that article now:
1) Rany correctly predicted that Edgar Renteria would, as he first did back in 1997, once again play an important role for a World Championship team. He missed on the time and the team, but there it is in black and blue and white.
2) It can be lot of fun to indulge in all-out irrational hope, but it’s probably better to be aware of yourself while you’re doing it. I think Rany was, and is. His closes with an acknowledgement and an implicit recognition that public daydreaming leaves him prone to rude knocks: “Maybe I am dreaming. But if I am, please, no one wake me up.”
by 2X2L on Nov 9, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hope and Faith
To be fair, that Hope and Faith article was part of a Baseball Prospectus series, if I recall correctly. They produced one for every team.
Yes, you're right, they did,
but this one still seems to me like more than just an assignment fulfilled. Maybe I’m wrong; I didn’t read all the others.
I believe
They always used to write an article for how each team could win a championship.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I agree that I would have liked to see more return from Melky.
The ideal return was:
- a SP
- 3+ years of team control,
- cost-controlled (through arbitration or a team-friendly contract)
- ceiling as a 2/3 SP, floor as a 4/5 SP
Obviously we weren’t going to get that for just Melky, though I do wonder if Moore was a little too trigger-happy and could’ve gotten more than Sanchez by shopping Melky with another piece (i.e. Soria/Butler/Myers) and some filler.
I certainly hope he would have gotten more than Sanchez for Melky plus Myers or plus Butler or plus Soria
Melky wouldn’t have been the centerpiece of any of those trades.
I can't decide if the fact that Bloomquist just got a 2-year contract
makes me like this deal more or less.
I think it makes me like it more because it makes me think it’s more likely that somebody’s going to pry Chen away with a 2-year deal, and so we’ll definitely need the pitching depth that Sanchez offers.
Dutton says we'll offer arbitration
DM said yesterday that this next draft is huge for the organization. Overslot spending is key, but lots of sandwich picks is just as key.
still seems like we shuld be able to get both
If Chen turns down arb and signs with a team, KC gets a comp pick w/o the signing team their’s, right?
So offer Chen arb, he turns it down, then sign him. BOOM. Cake had and eaten.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 9, 2011 4:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, but if you have some other team sign him then you trade for him, then you get the pick.
You just have to think like the Red Sox.
Go Royals!
yeah
I thought we had a tradition of making a “sign him ourselves, get the pick, too!” joke about every potential Type Free B agent here. Maybe I just dreamed it.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 9, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
Seems like something that could only work in the rarest of circumstances
Most other teams would be aware of the trick we were trying to pull, and would probably demand something in return for Chen – maybe up to the value of the draft pick in question.
You’d need a very friendly GM in another team’s front office to be able to work surplus value out of this scheme.
by moregritplease on Nov 9, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
free agent market for hitters and pitchers is usually pretty different
Teams are much more willing to give part-time position players two-year deals for low money than back end starting pitchers. Last year, Geoff Blum, Miguel Cairo, Matt Diaz, and Ty Wigginton got cheap, two-year deals. The only starters to get two or more years were Cliff Lee, Carl Pavano, JDLR, Jake Westbrook and Kevin Correia
Wow- scary
Maybe they’re just putting him in a home that in 2008 was worth $3.8M. No one has told him that now it’s worth 2 years at the league minimum
Royals Review : A Rany Jazayerli Blog
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 9, 2011 4:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Honest question: Why would you rather have two Verdugo type players?
He seems fringey by all accounts.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
Build for the future
Rather than 2012 alone
by Freneau on Nov 9, 2011 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Didn't you just have a (good) post about Dayton needing to eventually turn the farm system into MLB performance/wins?
Increasingly minor league prospects can be used to justify a regime’s existence to the owner, the media, and the fans. A strong farm system can be sold as an achievement even though, really, inherently, it isn’t one. That isn’t a shot at Dayton Moore by the way. Not yet, at least. It’s just… the minor leagues aren’t the point. Prospects, even the greatest prospects, are the miser’s stacks of gold: items only valuable in exchange.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
A bad team?
How about, a team with a lot to prove. Now the glass is half full.
I think the point is to move money around
from the OF to the rotation, and see what we have in Cain.
Melky or Cain needed to go. I can’t really get behind Sanchez as a breakout candidate in terms of doing anything better than 2010, but I can see him having a much better year than 2011.
So Cain, largely, was the point. Did we fix the rotation with this move? Not at all, but we have 3 “for sure” starters to start the year in Hoch, Sanchez, and Paulino if they want to start Duffy back in AAA (I believe he’ll be in the rotation all year). And we didn’t give up anything more than a year worth of Melky, which could be great but odds are it won’t be anything comparable to 2011.
There are too many young hitters for me to predict success, but, by the same token, I can’t be certain of failure either.
We don't know that for sure, honestly.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 10, 2011 2:36 AM EST up reply actions
Also, they would have the first right to negotiate with him (Sanchez).
How much is that worth? Debatable, but it’s worth something.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 10, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Verdugo doesn't seem like something I'd want if I were building for the future
I think I’d go for the 19yo lottery ticket position player. Not that 24yo, too-old-for-AA “live arm”. He looks a lot like a throw in.
But with every team and every org, there’s going to be guys just like him. It’s not like NW Arkansas only has 10 players. Adding a guy forces another guy who probably profiles similar (flawed but is still playing pro ball because he’s decent) out so there may not even be an upgrade, just a “let’s try someone else in a new situation who is very similar to the old guy”
I just don't agree that building for the future
and trying to have a reasonable shot in 2012 without mortgaging much have to be mutually exclusive.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Myers 2-3 with a Home run and a game-tying RBI triple to score Colon on first
Surprise trying to clench the division. Up 4-3 batting in the top of the 6th.
Adcock 5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 5 K’s 0 BB’s
Also, Jonah Keri's analysis:
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/9050/polarizing-trade-for-two-deep-sleepers
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 9, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
he stole my Oliver Perez comparison
I demand restitution!
I Think Someone
At McCovey Chronicles did the same.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 9, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
I Think Someone
At McCovey Chronicles did the same.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 9, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
And +Same
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 9, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Phil, I do not know if you know this, but
Taken is on FX right now - you can watch it
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I think philofthenorth
already posted this just above
interesting how two teams view a player differently
the article from SF about how having a young player in the outfield (Melky) will be good. We are talking about getting someone young in (Cain).
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
If I've got a guy on a one-year deal
Then I don’t think I really care how old he is.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
K% rather than K/9 (food for thought)
He’s 11th for K/9, 22nd for K% (out of 137 w/over 100 IP in 2011) – still good, but around a 10% difference relative to his peers.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 9, 2011 4:34 PM EST reply actions
I am in love with K%, it just wish it was more available with out running the numbers myself
It takes into account an amount of BABIP that K/9 doesn’t.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 9, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
I’d not really thought of that before, but it does make it a more meaningful stat, doesn’t it?
Royal love from the Rockies.
OT and TSFW
I searched for the Moran image to dis on the cards and found:
Some days are better than others.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
Not unless the Cards have a strong following in Israel.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 9, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe they do now since I'm guessing that's a frequent Google image search in Israel.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
huh, good spot.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 9, 2011 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Spiked curveball or something
He does have some nasty pitches
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I'd look for some PitchFX on his curveball, but before I got there,
Fangraphs has him only throwing 1% CB in 2006 0.1% in 2009, and no other curves (only FB, Slider, Change). There is an XX? of around 1.5% each season, which could be CB, I guess.
Is he actually throwing a knuckle slider?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 10, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the vertical and horizontal movement on his slider (both red and purple dots - purple is listed as "Curve" but has nearly the same velocity and break as SL)
The slider has been fairly steadily getting more downward movement over time. There’s a corresponding change in the horizontal movement, but it looks more like a one-time jump between 2008 and 2009.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=7507&position=P
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Nov 10, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Wil Myers in the AFL
1st in triples, OBP, and OPS
2nd in walks
3rd in SLG%
4th in AVG
must trade him for pitcher
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Wil Myers - AFL
Myers .750 SLG is #1 and #2 is not all that cloes(.704)
Project Prospect on Wil Myers from Nov 5th
A good athlete for someone his size, Wil Myers (pictured above) isn’t going to be a game-changer with his glove. I’ve seen him play the outfield about four times now, and each time he has looked heavy-footed and unnatural. While he’s far from a disaster out there, I don’t anticipate him becoming an average big-league defender.
That said, Myers can hit. He has wicked bat speed and the potential to be an elite power hitter. Stalled by injuries (knee contusion/laceration/infection) and challenged as the 7th-youngest player in Double-A, Myers made significant progress as a contact hitter during 2011. He also finished strong, hitting five of his eight home runs in the final third of the season.
Myers will turn 21 next month and is still a pretty good bet to reach the big leagues before he turns 22. If he accomplishes that, he could be in the youngest 1% of all big leaguers. If not, he could spend another year in the minors and still potentially reach the bigs and be in the youngest 3% of all big leaguers. Age and time are on Myers’ side. Don’t weigh his 2011 struggles too heavily, as he still has above-average regular upside.
http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/11/05/rising-stars-game-scouting-notes
I find the notion he improved as a contact hitter in 2011 very, very interesting. I remember the knock on Myers bat being that it was unconventional and that better pitchers might find a hole in his swing. If he’s made adjustments to become a more complete hitter I have to like the implication. If he can be Billy Butler offensively with fringe average defense in RF, wow.
I think this guy's wrong about the contact hitting.
Myers struck out a ton last year, and I don’t remember that necessarily improving as the year went on. Obviously, he struck out less after July, but I seem to remember him K-ing pretty regularly throughout the year. I’m too lazy to look it up though…
Maybe he sees something in the approach he likes.
He says Colon is a great contact hitter as well.
I guess I’m just optimistic because we all know the stats, but this guy is saying that the stats don’t tell the whole story and that he thinks Myers actually improved in 2011.
Wil Myers - RF
He’s been an OF for 1(partial) season. And he’s not the second coming of Roberto Clemente yet. I’m about ready to give up on him(sarcasm) >Myers can run, he’s a good athlete, and he has a good arm, from what I have seen he will at least be a ML average RF
Will would rather have 2 Verdugos than Sanchez?
That’s just crazy.
Sanchez has been a league average starter. He is not a world beater, but is surely an improvement over the 5th starter he replaces. (Whether you get an ace or a 3rd starter, the 5th starter is still the guy you are replacing) He has shown the potential to be more. Assuming Chen is gone, Sanchez is the ONLY pitcher on the staff who has even shown the ability to be average or better. (With the exception of half a year of Paulino)
This trade improves our defense, and our starting pitching. We save runs with this trade, many more runs than we would lose even if Cain was a failure offensively. It is a clear win.
You guys were talking about Rany above. I agree that in his starting pitching manifesto, he seems to throw prospects around like candy on Halloween. Will is way too far in the opposite direction. I think he would prefer to continue stockpiling fringe prospects such as Verdugo ad infinitum so he could have more minor league guys to analyze and hope about. I worry that he will become a hoarder, and visitors to his house will have to walk through thin paths carved through ceiling high stacks or poetry books and other pieces of flotsam which had to be kept.
I don’t want to trade all the prospects, (I am particularly fond of Myers) and I certainly don’t want to trade them all away just to make our starters average, but Dayton’s job now will be to identify guys that he does not think will make it or have a place on our team BEFORE it becomes obvious to everyone else, and to use them to acquire players we can use at (or close to) the major league level. Because many teams, just like Will, now overvalue prospects at the Verdugo level and higher. Likewise, he should have a few that would be sought after that would be mostly unavailable. (By that I mean someone would have to knock your socks off with a crazy offer to get them)
You must have prospects make it and help your team on the major league level (and we have), but that is only half the battle. The other half is getting value that helps your team from the ones who don’t. Thusfar DMGM has been unable to do this, holding on to people like Kila and Clint Robinson until their value was gone.
It is a balancing act, and how he handles it will determine the future of this team.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
by KHAZAD on Nov 9, 2011 7:35 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Totally agree
Prospects are becoming overrated by the market in my mind.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Two different issues
I don’t value verdugo because he’s a prospect
I value him because he’s under team control for multiple years…
I think my issue with this line of thinking
is that it seems like Jonathan Sanchez could somewhat realistically yield a compensatory draft pick or net something as the trade deadline approaches, while two Verdugos (24YO pitchers who likely profile as relievers with no experience past Double-A) may never make the bigs. Sanchez also fits a need now, which—while not doing anything for 2013, at least insofar as the 40-man is concerned—does prevent the necessity of rushing someone who isn’t ready and doesn’t commit money needlessly to someone who would best not be on the books in 2013. Moreover, it does allow Moore to look forward to 2013 and beyond in center in allowing for the evaluation of Lorenzo Cain.
I honestly think Melky wasn’t going to net much more than Moore got. After all, what GM would you have rather had Moore dealing with when looking at trading Melky? I’m surprised he even netted Sanchez.
All that being said, I really feel like you left the most important part of KHAZAD’s rant left unaddressed: the hoarder scenario.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Nov 10, 2011 2:31 AM EST up reply actions
Excellent point
About the compensatory draft pick. We could get a year of Sanchez as well as a draft pick (with years of team control to appease Will) As far as years of team control go, it is not something you can always put ahead of helping the team at the Major League level. We have other left handed relief options (and starters as well) with years of team control. Adding one more and adding to our choices is not worth one year of decent Major League pitching.
I still worry about the hoarding. The first step is admitting you have a problem.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
I like that you're not grading on the Moore curve, Will
I think you’re right that this trade is a very average one, but in the context of both Moore’s career and the recent noise suggesting a Wil for Jair in our future makes this seem like a much better trade than it actually is. It’s fine. C+. It’s funny reading the Giants fans responses because they’re saying generally the same thing: that because they’d already convinced themselves that the GM was going to make the worst possible/least sensible deal, this one is refreshingly straightforward and an apt use of resources, and therefore a good deal.
With respect to Wil Myers’s continued excellence in the AFL, this makes me more interested in trading him, not less. His value seems (to me, anyway, which means next to nothing) to be creeping back up to top-10 prospect in baseball territory, at which point he becomes a true centerpiece to a deal for one of those few young, cost-controlled aces. Maybe his value hasn’t changed a whit during the past month, but if it has, I’d be interested to see whether Moore could take advantage of that.
Yeah, I noticed that at McCovey Chronicles
“Hey, it didn’t suck and it could have been so much worse so that’s a win, right?”
Sounds sadly familiar :D
The problem I see with that line of reasoning though is that Myers is exactly the type of guy we should hold onto
If his value is high, it doesn’t make sense for it to be higher for anyone else than it is to us. We are a team, like the Rays, which has to continually bring in prospects to keep the payroll down.
Getting rid of Myers now just creates more payroll problems in the future and takes away a middle of the order bat in exchange for a pitcher (with a higher injury likelihood) who will be more expensive than Myers and not under team control for as long, but in a position of immediate need and, presumably, with less bust potential.
If you could get a real ace with 3+ years of team control you’d do it. That’s not going to happen though. For one, no real ace is available. Shields’ bWAR is inflated by a ridiculous number of innings pitched. Gio Gonzalez plays in a pitchers park. Jurrjens is actually just kind of bad.
i hear you...
this is more a response to Will’s column the other day on trading Wil Myers, which three days ago i was against, but as he keeps mashing, the trader in me wants to sell the strength. it would absolutely have to be for the right package, and there are only maybe a half a dozen (Beachy/Minor/Kershaw-types) players that I would even consider making the centerpiece of the return package, but Will’s point from the other day is well-taken. Most prospects fail (TM: Scott McKinney) and elite prospects are among the most valuable trading chips in the game. If the Royals really want to compete in 2012 (whether they should try is another question) then trading Myers for an elite pre-arb pitcher may be the only way they can.
by billexgordler on Nov 10, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
The good thing about a myers trade...
Is tha Moore could sit back and try to set the market or get the perfect return
Sorta the inverse of the big Roy Halladay trade, say.
WOW
Paterno just got fired
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:17 PM EST reply actions
You watching Temple?
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'm watching college basketball
Go Duquesne
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Temple, Xavier, St Joes....
My high school coach was the pitching coach for Duquesne in 09 before the program disbanded
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
st joes? dont get me mad
temple and xavier are both top 20 teams this year. st louis will be good, the bonnies have a chance, richmond is solid.
I don't know anything about the A10
and I know St Joes has history….
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't expect him to last, but I'm genuinely shocked it happened this way.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Really sucks for him and PSU
He was the most legendary coach in NCAA history, now his whole legacy is stained
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
I just can't feel bad for him right now. He's not the victim.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
Was he part of the covering up?
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
That's the question.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I can't believe a coach saw the abuse happening
and didn’t immediately do something
Chen for Cooperstown
by tiquanunderwear on Nov 9, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Paterno had known and worked with Sandusky for almost 50 years
I’m sure he didn’t want to believe that the allegations and rumors were even possible.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Nov 9, 2011 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Paterno said before a grand jury
He was told his defensive coordinator was caught doing something of sexual nature with a minor. That, at the very least, should have warranted a phone call to the police.
If anyone wants to be disappointed, go to Bill James site and read his IMO really off-base defense of Paterno.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
James even admits on his website that he has not read the grand jury report.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 9, 2011 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
I wish I hadn't, having said that.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Nov 10, 2011 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
I hate that "what happens to Paterno" seems to be the main thread of the tv coverage of this.
I’d really rather the conversation were about how “acquaintance” pedophilia works, how to protect against it, how to deal with it. I get that how those who enabled this to happen is a big part of “the story”, but I also feel like when we’re talking more about how Paterno recovers from this or responds to this, we’re still elevating the institution above the victims. I really REALLY don’t give a shit if Paterno dedicates the rest of his life to the University or how he could word a statement to sound more sorry or whatever. I care about what can be done so that the people in place in these institutions don’t choose a form of protection of the institution over the safety of a 10 year old child.
It’s starting to feel like a freaking witchhunt and I don’t really see how this benefits the current victims or helps to prevent the existence of future victims in similar scenarios.
by Gross(est) on Nov 10, 2011 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And just to be clear, I think the "enablers" hould face a consequence
but I’m content to let the district attorney’s office follow up on the legal end and some reasonable folks to follow-up on the letting-these-people-be-leaders-at-our-institution end. The mob and the ensuing conversations, not to mention the all-day “what’ll happen to Paterno” shit is what’s got me pissed off. I just feel like it’s putting the emphasis in the wrong place.
Bill James wrote
I have yet to hear anyone who has articulate an explanation of why Joe Paterno should be held responsible for the crimes of a former employee.
and this is of course is at odds with recent accounts of his response to the report of the 2002 incident, which strongly suggest that he should have known or could have known that something criminal was going on and should have, in his own words, “done more”.
But there is an element of Bill’s take on this that I appreciate. To explain it, I have to point to something else I read this morning, something that scares me:
Meanwhile, the tone of the early ESPN coverage was spotty — sometimes getting it right, but more often seeming inappropriate. It wasn’t until mid-afternoon Tuesday that ESPN finally seemed consistently to ask the right questions and find the appropriate moral outrage. That’s 72 hours after the story first broke.
Yes, there is much about this story that is reprehensible, but a public requirement for media outlets not only to tell a story but also to formulate, validate, and amplify a particular response to it — in less than 72 hours — seems to me to be a very dangerous trend.
Bill James may be wrong about whether Paterno should held responsible for a lack of action, but the principle of taking time for all the facts to come out before issuing a condemnation and taking an incontrovertible action seems like a really good one to me. Bill went as far as to describe “how a lynch mob works”, and I think that particular reminder isn’t out of place.
Yes, there is much about this story that is reprehensible, but a public requirement for media outlets not only to tell a story but also to formulate, validate, and amplify a particular response to it — in less than 72 hours — seems to me to be a very dangerous trend.
Could you clarify this? Are you disagreeing with the above critique of ESPN? It seems like the critique was merely that the 1) got some facts wrong, and 2) often weren’t asking the right questions. Those seem like fair criticisms.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Nov 10, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps you missed the part that stood out for me
lamenting the ESPN’s inability to “find the appropriate moral outrage”. That’s not about getting facts right or about asking the right questions — it’s about whether ESPN devoted sufficient airtime to a provocative response to the still emerging story.
Hey, you gotta go with Bill James on this one, remember how he was vindicated after his defense of Pete Rose?
oh, wait
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 10, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I remember that one distinctly
I was sitting on the front porch of our house in Leawood having a few smokes and reading whatever book it was in that I’d checked out of the library. I read the whole Pete Rose article and said, “That’s a load of shit.”
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
Really sad
That a lot of students and fans can’t seem to recognize how insignificant sports is in the grand scheme of things.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Whoa
Sadly Will, I’m happy you aren’t making the decisions in Kansas City. I love the work you do on this blog and contributions you make, but this trade was a brilliant move by the Royals.
Cabrera had a career year and there is no doubting that, but the Royals are not going to move him to left or field, and his defense in center isn’t nearly as good as Lorenzo Cain. We can all agree that Cabrera will likely regress from his banner season in 2011, and with that the Royals clear room for Cain and add a swing and miss left handed starter who is under 30. The Royals retain Wil Myers more importantly and do not need to go out into free agency and overpay for services.
Sanchez career numbers project to look good for Kansas City as he misses bats, racks up K’s and most people believe has a lot of miles left on his arm.
I can’t see how this trade can be looked down on considering how smoothly it fits for the Royals. It’s a shock that someone out there can fault with this deal.
Twitter - @peterman7
Now If We
Can just play good baseball in your eyes.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 12, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
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