2012 Projections: Jeff Francouer

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 9:23 AM EST

Instead of doing our own player projections here at RR, Fangraphs (you will need a login) has a option to project how you think a player will do in the up coming season. Today, what do you think good olde Frenchy will do this season. I will go back later in the off season and compare each player.

Project how Jeff Francouer will perform in 2012?

Tweet Comment 80 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I have him pretty close to 2011, but with less steals.

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 9:28 AM EST reply actions

As I was reading this I was thinking the exact thing.

I think they’ll start off trying to run him a bunch again, but he’ll get nailed alot more. Basically same numbers but around 10 steals.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Dec 13, 2011 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

I am waiting for the 15 ballots to see where he actually stands

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

Does it say how many ballots have already been cast?

Nick Swisher and Johnny Giavatella deserve treats in the Kaufmann parking lot.

by ChrisCEIT on Dec 13, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, once the 15 ballots are reached

Like the 83 here with Ryan Braun:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions

They think he'll play 149 games? Heh.

Nick Swisher and Johnny Giavatella deserve treats in the Kaufmann parking lot.

by ChrisCEIT on Dec 13, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

My gut says .280/.320/.445

Below average defense. Below average baserunning.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 9:31 AM EST reply actions

BUT HE HAS A CANNON

BFIB

by tiquanunderwear on Dec 13, 2011 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

I think his defense will actually improve next year with Cain covering part of his area for him.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 13, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

I thought about that too

He is the same player, but he will probably have fewer chances to catch the ball, so his range might look a little better. Of course, his assists might go down as well. As far as metrics, I have no idea how Cain might affect them.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

And there are other factors as well

You’re right about the OF assists likely decreasing. And the average aging curve for defense would say that his range should shrink somewhat.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

I questioned several times last year if he was shading toward center to help Melky.

I don’t know if I was right, but he had numerous long runs to the right field corner.

by kansasjohn on Dec 13, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

RHB Or LHB?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions

I don't remember.

I do remember seeing a somewhat wide shot of the field, with the ball going into the corner and Frenchy was not yet in the picture.

by kansasjohn on Dec 14, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

If you look at Bill James' projection

He has him at. 269/.317/.432, which is essentially his career average, even assuming his BABIP drops to .307 instead of his .302 career. And I thought the James projections were usually very optimistic.

If he hits 18-20 HRs the Facebook fans (and the Royals) will be happy, and he’ll get his 550 ABs, and he’s here for 2 more years, so we’re stuck with Frenchy.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

The James projections look very optimistic to me on some players, but reasonable on others

Francoeur’s projection of . 269/.317/.432 looks quite reasonable. I doubt it will be far off the other systems. The James projection for Gio on the other hand….

by kcdc1 on Dec 13, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

I'm Quite Confident

That if this team makes a great leap in 2012, it will be in spite of him.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 12:53 AM EST up reply actions

That'll be higher than the mainstream projection systems

Admit it, you love Frenchy.

by kcdc1 on Dec 13, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

NEVER!

I would be indifferent if he was coming back for one year at his mutual option number of $4mil. But with the raise to $6.5-$7mil and the second year, I have to kill it for financial and baseball reasons. I don’t believe he would get that on the market, and it may very well put the Royals in a bad spot in 2013 if they have an unproductive Francoeur blocking Myers.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

Just trying to be fair

Maybe even generous.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

Some numbers are out and Scott is being a little generous

0.270/0.303/0.401

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Oops, I think those are my numbers.

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 13, 2011 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

That doesn't look very close to 2011

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

And That Is

All that matters

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

Whats up with tendering Getz? Is he that bad that no one else wants him?

I know hes bad by the way… and I dont want him

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Dec 13, 2011 10:11 AM EST reply actions

I think Gopherballs hit the nail on the head when he predicted yesterday that Getz would be tendered. The Royals need a utility IFer. They want someone better than Getz. But they don’t know for sure that they’ll be able to acquire an upgrade. And tendering Getz is low-cost and low-risk because his contract wouldn’t be fully guaranteed. Arb. players like Getz can be released by some date in mid-March and be given termination pay which is I think 1/6th of their salary. If Getz were to get $1M in arbitration, his termination pay would be only $167K.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

That makes sense

They can hold on to him as a stop gap while they shop… thanks

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Dec 13, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

C'MON, NICKY!!!!!!!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:00 AM EST up reply actions

Starting Right-Fielder for the AL All-Stars - BOOK IT!!!!!!!!!!!

Will also be scheduled to compete in the homerun derby, but be forced to withdraw when he tries to do it in the nude.

by Loose Seal on Dec 13, 2011 10:34 AM EST reply actions

I wonder if that whole French Quarter thing is going to continue

At first it was kinda annoying BUT its bee a long time since anyone ever had someone to root for in the outfield- publically atleast..

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Dec 13, 2011 10:40 AM EST reply actions

Frenchy will disappoint some

.255/.301/.415; 15 HR’s, 10 SB, not near as many assists, as teams won’t run on him as much. Not a huge fan of Frenchy’s, but I don’t think he is all bad, either. If you are counting on him hitting cleanup and driving in 100 runs, you are going to be disappointed. I think playing a role until another OF (Myers, Starling, or Eibner) arrives is about what we can expect out of him. At that point, he might make a good bench guy, with his splits vs. lefties, and a little pop. It’s all about expectations. Some people just aren’t very realistic when it comes to Frenchy.

by 7-step-drop on Dec 13, 2011 10:47 AM EST reply actions

^This. except i would side with others and say his splits will be closer or slightly above his

career average, with 15-18 HRs and 80+ RBIs.

i like the idea of Frenchy as the everyday RFer for 2 more years until Myers explodes into MLB, with Frenchy taking the back-up OF – late inning pinch hitter role.

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 13, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

He would be a useful platoon corner OF

But that’s not how the Royals will use him, or anyone for that matter. They signed him and paid him to play full time. I felt it would look OK in 2012 and pretty bad in 2013 in terms of value. But he has fluctuated in production in his career. If Wil Myers is ready in May/June 2013, how bad does Francoeur have to be at that point to lose his job? My guess is pretty bad. I expect an ending more like Jose Guillen than Wilson Betemit, both because of money and loyalty.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

don't worry about Frenchy blocking Myers

It’s not going to happen. If Frenchy is struggling, Myers is going to be in the big leagues faster than Eric Hosmer. If Frenchy is playing well, he would certainly be tradeable. Not uber expensive, positive locker room guy, and the like. When Myers is ready, he’ll be manning RF everyday, regardless of what Frenchy is doing.

by fightwookies on Dec 13, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

If he's playing well, or even at a decent level, Moore's not trading him

Moore would see him as an integral part of this team and a key to getting it to the playoffs.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

It won’t be enough for Myers to mash in AAA. Francoeur would have to be truly awful to be traded/released.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

yeah...b/c thats dayton's MO...

keeping elite prospects in the minors when they’re ready…moose, hosmer, duffy, perez, etc….the only data point arguing against that would be kila…and he wasnt exactly tearing it up in aaa until the year dayton called him up

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 13, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions

Moose, Hosmer, Duffy and Perez weren't blocked by anybody

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

Also, Kila was genuinely being blocked by Jose Guillen

because the team was desperately trying to showcase him by letting him break out of a slump to try to get some trade value out of him. Not saying we all would have done the same thing but there’s a reasonable explanation for how the Kila situation was handled.

"There is nothing shrewd about running a red light and later finding out it kept you from being hit by an asteroid." - philofthenorth

by KeepItCopacetic on Dec 15, 2011 12:23 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

I think he’ll do worse – .245/.291/.380 12 HR. He’s going to struggle all year, they’ll make excuses for it at first (its the weather! he has an injury! its not enough protection in the lineup – move him up!) He’ll have a decent June giving us hope. Then he’ll suck in July and August, when he’s finally benched for Futures Game MVP Wil Myers.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 13, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Depending on league scoring environment, that'd give 2008 a run for its money for Worst Year of Francoeur's Career

I’m not saying it won’t happen, but it shouldn’t be a 50th percentile projection.

by kcdc1 on Dec 13, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Frogger Is Pretty

Well established in MLB. I truly believe 2011 was his peak, and the slope down will be as steep as the slope up. His plate discipline is as bad as ever, and his contact rate on pitches out of the zone is due for an age related collapse. He might surprise with a year close to 2011, but I doubt it. Defense is due for a swift downturn, too. Should sell high if he’s at all marketable at the 2012 deadline.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs

While his “established” numbers are worse than his 2011, they’re also better than .245/.291/.380.

by kcdc1 on Dec 14, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

wow

a line of .255/.301/.415, would be incredibly disappointing. I sure hope your wrong.

by Bronzillo on Dec 13, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Grodon on the other hand, IMO, will be even better this year than last and will start in

LF in the AS game.

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 13, 2011 10:55 AM EST reply actions

So he's getting traded to the Yankees or Red Sox?

by Narghile on Dec 13, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

I expect him to add one new position to his arsenal and become a true five tool player...

1. The Flash and Go
2. The Brain
3. The Bat Wing
4. The Goat
5. ??

Can't wait to see!

More Goofus than Gallant...

by Tracer Bullet 82 on Dec 13, 2011 12:00 PM EST reply actions

He will lead the league in

both leadership and naked batting practice. Anything else is just gravy.

by Royals fanatic on Dec 13, 2011 1:37 PM EST reply actions

And Gay, Not

That there’s anything wrong with that.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:31 AM EST up reply actions

I'm going to be optimistic

and say that Frenchy does a little worse than in 2011, all around. Approximately 2 WAR. As was said before, ideally he’d be a platoon corner OF and righty bat off the bench. Yes, he is overpaid, but his contract’s not a Vernon Wells-type disaster that damages the team for a decade. Let’s just hope that he gives way gracefully to Myers in 2013.

"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."

by Juancho on Dec 13, 2011 1:44 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

He's a good RH bench bat.

Even if/when Myers is ready Francoeur will be movable at a discount to a contender. If he can repeat or improve on 2011, we might even get something for him. Good clubhouse guys are important down the stretch.

by WURoyal on Dec 13, 2011 2:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'm concerned that Moore loves Frenchy so much that he wouldn't move him or bench him to make room for Myers

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

So am I

And it’s not out of irrational animosity for Francoeur. I hope he plays well and provides good value for the money he will make. But I also think that, based on his body of work, that there is a good chance he will not be able to repeat his 2011 production in 2012, which the projections so far support.

I do believe Dayton values Wil Myers highly. But I also believe Dayton values Francoeur differently, in terms of knowing him since high school and signing him and believing in what he brings to a team as a person. It’s beyond a joke among many Royals fans at this point.

If Myers is tearing up the minors in early 2013 and Francoeur is producing at his career average, I think the Royals might keep a ready Myers in Omaha. It won’t hurt Myers, but it could hurt the Royals if they are contending by then.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions

If Francoeur is playing pretty well when Myers becomes MLB-ready, there’s also the chance that Moore trades Gordon to make room for Myers.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 13, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

trade Gordon + Keep Frenchy = RIOT at the K!!!

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 13, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

I know

But the thought of it was too terrible for me to type the words.

by thelaundry on Dec 13, 2011 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

#2 Overall Just

Never panned out

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:39 AM EST up reply actions

what makes you think that?

every major prospect that has been ready has been called up soon after…even when the guy blocking him was a moore fetish like chris getz

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 13, 2011 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

None of those prospects have been blocked

Getz really isn’t much of a Moore fetish. He’s just someone taking up space. Francoeur is different. Moore has always coveted him, and then he had a pretty good 2011 season. I don’t think Moore would be eager to move Francoeur aside to make way for a top prospect.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

High low and mean

High-.285 26 HR 95 RBI 78 R
Low- .255 12 HR 68 RBI 62 R
What I expect from him?

.271 17 HR 74 RBI 66 R

Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/

by ChosenOneK on Dec 13, 2011 2:08 PM EST reply actions

Frenchy had a bit of a hot streak to end the season, which may have inflated his average a bit.
I’m expecting >500 ABs, .265, 21 HRs and around 90 RBIs. Certainly usable numbers.

by fightwookies on Dec 13, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

I'm expecting big drop offs from Frenchy

But I think he might stay consistent with improved protection from Hosmer, Moose, Butler and the like.

High- .285/.335/.490, 24 HR, 95 RBI
Low- .260/.310/.445, 16 HR, 70 RBI
Expected- .270/.320/.465, 21, 88 RBI

http://www.royalskingdom.blogspot.com
http://www.chiefscommand.com

by kcdynasty on Dec 13, 2011 6:04 PM EST reply actions

Expect BETTER 2012 numbers...

Come on, guys. His 2012 performance will be influenced by whether Moose hits behind him. No one has mentioned this.

If Moose is behind him, and if he hits in 2012, Frenchy sees more fat pitches.

I can see this entire offense clicking for much of the season, and thus Frenchy, hitting in the middle of it, will benefit. Those fly ball outs become sacrifice flies. Those ground outs become RBI.

Frenchy is in his prime years (27-31) for a hitter, and it is likely his numbers will get even better, especially hitting in the middle of this offense.

by david.lowe on Dec 13, 2011 6:12 PM EST reply actions

I know you guys are hardwired to be

snarky and sarcastic, and you can’t stand Frenchy because he’s outgoing and a former Brave and on and on and on. He had a good year last year and I hope for our sakes he does even better.

by david.lowe on Dec 13, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I can be snarky and root for Frenchy at the same time

by Loose Seal on Dec 13, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

fence walker

by Bronzillo on Dec 13, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

His prime years as a hitter!

In that case, .260/.310/.440!

There’s some optimism for you!

by Narghile on Dec 13, 2011 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

nice snark. i knew you could do it!

by david.lowe on Dec 13, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

Come on, guys. His 2012 performance will be influenced by whether Moose hits behind him. No one has mentioned this.

If Moose is behind him, and if he hits in 2012, Frenchy sees more fat pitches.

This is a good point. When Frenchy was in Atlanta and Texas and had all those shitty hitters around him, he couldn’t hit a lick. But once he got to hit in front of Mike Moustakas, he was the man.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 13, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

Kila would still be on the team, but for shitty teammates.

by kansasjohn on Dec 13, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Francoeur is going to hit better in 2012 because he will have the great Mike Moustakas hitting behind him? Are we supposed to assume that Moustakas will be hitting well in 2012?

While possible, there’s absolutely no reason to believe Francoeur will hit better in 2012. None.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions

The numbers are irrelevant.

It is all about leadership. Look at Tebow!

by kansasjohn on Dec 13, 2011 6:15 PM EST reply actions

I Want Tebow

Right in the fucking middle of the order, and pitching, too.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:47 AM EST up reply actions

ok guys i'm coming out.....

i like Frenchy as the KC RFer and i was happy to see him get the 2-yr extension. i believe his performance in 2012 will be pretty much the same as last year.

with all that…..i’ll cant wait to see Myers arrive in 2013 and see Frenchy pushed to the bench for the duration of the 2013 season and world series run.

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 13, 2011 9:00 PM EST reply actions

Good for you!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMx5RDe1BkI&feature=related

by kansasjohn on Dec 13, 2011 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

It Could Happen

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Results are calculated at the end of each day

We put him at:

.278/0.322/0.436

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4792&position=OF

Looks like the biggest change is a drop in BABIP from 2011 to 2012: 0.323 to 0.308
It then affected the rest of the stats.

Doubting Thomas, the patron saint of sabermetrics

by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 14, 2011 8:26 AM EST reply actions

if Frenchy does this with 90+ RBIs, i'd say he earned his money for 2012.

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 14, 2011 8:29 AM EST up reply actions

SB & CS. Defense. Base running.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 14, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

I would be ecstatic with this line

.278/0.322/0.436

I don’t necessarily see it happening, I think that is probably best case scenario, offensively. As long as the decline defensively and as a base runner isn’t too precipitous, it would be fine until Myers is ready. I would have no problem with him as a backup LF/RF/1B in the future, esp if we are going with 2 backup OF (so that the other one can play CF). Not that that will happen.

by Rufus R. Jones on Dec 14, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions