FanPost

CAIRO Projections and the 2012 Royals

The CAIRO projections have come out, and while this is not the best projection system, it tested well last year and is better than a simple weighted average and regression (Marcel), but isn't quite as good as the best projection systems (probably ZiPS and PECOTA).

The roll out of the projections also came with projected standings. The Royals were projected to have a 73-89 record. Even the guy who puts CAIRO together recognizes that the projected standings aren't worth a lot because rosters change and it is hard to estimate playing time. But I thought I'd give it a shot, and tweak the CAIRO data to come up with a more accurate projected win total for the 2012 Royals, based on CAIRO's invidual player projections.

The basic methodology involved making my own estimates as to playing time (PA and IP) and adjusting RAR and WAR accordingly. For position players, I added CAIRO's defensive projections to projected BRAR to come up with a total WAR (the defensive projection was also changed proportionately for my estimate of playing time). For pitchers, I recalculated WAR based on FIP, as CAIRO's pitching WAR was apparently based on (E)RA.

My playing time estimates were just my best guess. I tried to take into account what appears to be the player's likely usage, his injury history and his recent history with regard to playing time. I also gave every regular something less than a full season of playing time, to account for little injuries which cut into playing time and the DL stints which will pop up here and there.

My assumptions are just that: assumptions. They could be far off. Who knows. So take this for what it is. This is a win total based on certain playing time estimates, using a given system's projections. It's useful information, but far from the final word on how many games the Royals should win in 2012.

The following isn't going to be pretty, but I don't really have the time to tart this up.

Player, PA or IP, WAR

Billy Butler, 660, 2.40

Eric Hosmer, 660, 0.59

Jeff Francoeur, 635, 1.46

Alex Gordon, 610, 3.23

Lorenzo Cain, 580, 1.85

Alcides Escobar, 580, 1.62

Mike Moustakas, 580, 1.76

Salvador Perez, 560, 1.29

Johnny Giavotella, 510, 0.41

Chris Getz, 170, 0.29

Mitch Maier, 160, 0.41

Brayan Pena, 135, 0.52

Jarrod Dyson, 75, 0.36

Joaquin Arias, 50, 0.0

David Lough, 50, 0.03

Manuel Pina, 20, 0.06

Repl. Lev. Fill-ins, 75, 0.0

TOTAL, 6110, 16.28

Felipe Paulino, 180, 3.13

Luke Hochevar, 170, 2.05

Danny Duffy, 165, 1.55

Bruce Chen, 150, 1.55

Jonathan Sanchez, 150, 1.76

Aaron Crow, 65, 0.22

Greg Holland, 65, 0.66

Joakim Soria, 63, 1.20

Louis Coleman, 60, 0.18

Tim Collins, 60, 0.0

Blake Wood, 60, 0.03

Jonathan Broxton, 50, 0.75

Mike Montgomery, 50, 0.62

Kelvin Herrera, 50, -0.06

Sean O’Sullivan, 40, 0.16

Everett Teaford, 40, -0.49

Nathan Adcock, 10, 0.01

Vin Mazzaro, 10, 0.07

Jeremy Jeffress, 10, -0.09

TOTAL, 1448, 13.32

Replacement + Pos. Pl. WAR + Pitcher WAR = Projected Win Total

48.6 + 16.28 + 13.32 = 78.2 Wins

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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