12/27 Royals Links: Rany on the Prospect Bubble, Chen Talks Panama, Trade Rumors, Russian Failure

by Freneau on Dec 27, 2011 10:00 AM EST in Kansas City Royals News

Interesting post by Rany at Grantland on the over-valuing of prospects, an idea that we've been talking about on this site for quite some time. With failure rates where they are, the old conventional wisdom of valuing "proven veterans" may have some salt to it.

Royals:

Baseball:

PRINCE FIELDER WATCH 2011 - Lookout Landing

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2012 - Minor League Ball

Grab Bag:

Tweet Comment 44 comments | 1 recs |

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I really wanted to take that prospect list seriously

But Falu isn’t top 15? This guy has no credibility now.

BFIB<BFSE

by tiquanunderwear on Dec 27, 2011 11:44 AM EST reply actions

That top 15 list was badly out of date.

by fightwookies on Dec 27, 2011 11:51 AM EST reply actions

check that

for some reason, the first time I clicked on it, it went to the 2010 version

by fightwookies on Dec 27, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

Scroll down.

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Dec 27, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions

Question:

Dwyer, Colon, Myers, Montgomery and Eibner had disappointing seasons last year. Which one do you think will have the biggest bounce-back? Pick two, and they can’t be both Myers and Montgomery. I will say Myers and Dwyer.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Dec 27, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions

A bounceback from Dwyer would be great

If you’re hoping the Royals can trade for a SP without giving up Monty, Duffy, Odorizzi or Lamb. Lesky also singles out Eibner and Colon as potential trade bait, Eibner for low floor and Colon for low ceiling.

by thelaundry on Dec 27, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions

I would say Myers and Montgomery.

I know you told me not to pick both, but honestly, I think both of them will bounce back.

I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.

2012 is the year we shine.

by Jack Marsh on Dec 27, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions

Myers and Dwyer.

"There is nothing shrewd about running a red light and later finding out it kept you from being hit by an asteroid." - philofthenorth

by KeepItCopacetic on Dec 27, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

No real point to give a pair considering you only list four but I'll give you some ideas

Brett Eibner struggled with contact striking out a 27.8% clip while also carrying a .271 BABIP. That BABIP could be a sign of poor contact which would make sense considering the K rate, it could also be bad luck considering he had an ISO of .195. He draws comps to a poor mans Drew Stubbs which in comparison to Stubbs lackluster Midwest league performance .270/.364/.421 isn’t a terrible thing. Unfortunately for Eibner he’ll head to Wilmington, not exactly a RH hitters haven so I wouldn’t bet on him for a bounceback season despite his athletic gifts.

Dwyer – he continues to fight the walk rate. His curve is a major league pitch but a 90-92 mph fastball when hitters are allowed to sit on it due to the count isn’t. Again I wouldn’t bet on him finding the strikezone if I had to place a bet, he could be just a bullpen lefty.

Montgomery – he was throwing a cutter late in the year if he sticks with that pitch combines his slider works his curve less and fixes the control which isn’t as bad as it appears on the surface (went away in spurts) he should be fine. I saw enough of Mike’s starts(12 or 13) to have alot of confidence in him getting it eventually, his curve was a disaster at times.

Myers – I think Wil will start in Omaha despite GMDM indicating he could go back to AA. If so Wil’s patience will pay him dividends like it did for Hos. The main difference for Wil compared to Eric is that he won’t be rushed to the bigs meaning he’ll get to play in Werner Park for most of the season which could be huge because of its strong winds to leftfield. If Wil elevates the ball to LF you could see a HR spike due to the summer gusty winds, I saw so many balls hit up on the pavement walkway in Left last season which is probably 400 feet away. He’d be the easy bet among the four.

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 27, 2011 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I know you're talking in the context of "bounceback" bets but I'm curious about this now.

If Wil elevates the ball to LF you could see a HR spike due to the summer gusty winds, I saw so many balls hit up on the pavement walkway in Left last season which is probably 400 feet away. He’d be the easy bet among the four.

Do you really think it’s a launchpad for righties? If so, could that cause problems down the road?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 28, 2011 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

Yes I do, I mentioned this several times in my write ups for PTP.

Aviles hit 9 HR in 35 games many of which were at Werner Park. Mar-Apr games the cold will depress power a bit but when you get into May-June-July with decent winds and mild weather Werner turns into a solid offensive park for RH hitters IMO. The wind pushes heavily to left which drives the ball to center for Lefty pull hitters

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 28, 2011 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I hope you got a commission from all of the sponsers in that post.

…and I listed five players, not four.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Dec 28, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Oh my bad didn't see Colon

I’ve wrote other places I have little confidence in him and in reality wouldn’t rate him in my Top 20 Royals prospects if it wasn’t for his draft position and standing within the organization. Hope I’m wrong

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 28, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Ya they did a great job of selling sponsorships, lots of money the team was

missing out on prior

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 28, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

Also

Needs more Edwin Carl

BFIB<BFSE

by tiquanunderwear on Dec 27, 2011 11:58 AM EST reply actions

Wait a minute

I thought prospects were the reason the Royals were going to dominate the division from 2012-2016, how can they possibly be overvalued?

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 27, 2011 1:24 PM EST reply actions

I find it kind of ironic from Rany too

He often has insane asking prices for Royals players.

Edgar knows best.

by kcbottom9th on Dec 27, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

I think this article is coming out now because he wants the Royals to trade prospects so that they can win now

Why? Because…go for it. That’s why.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 27, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

BAHAHAAHHAAHAHA

The best part is his computer desktop!

BFIB<BFSE........KC needs more Edwin Carl

by tiquanunderwear on Dec 27, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

It would be even better if that PC was changed to an Apple 2, with a pop tart on the counter

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095

by averagegatsby on Dec 27, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Well done

It’s amazing how Rany is the most go-for-it person out there. Moreso than Dayton Moore, Jack Marsh or anyone.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

Whether or not that's literally true,

the point is still well-taken. For a guy who was singing the virtues of patience less than two years ago, Rany has swung to the opposite end of the spectrum. He’s now criticizing Dayton for not being aggressive enough in mortgaging the team’s future.

by moregritplease on Dec 27, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

Rany seemed intent on making his conclusion

and stretched the facts to support it. I appreciate the effort he makes to provide a reasoned, well-spoken analysis and I really appreciate when writers and analysts raise arguments that go against the popular wisdom, but in this case, I think he’s more wrong than right.

by Loose Seal on Dec 28, 2011 1:30 AM EST up reply actions

He does that a lot.

Start with his conclusion and then finds his facts to support it. I’d rather he went about it in the opposite manner.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 28, 2011 8:10 AM EST up reply actions

also agreed

This smacked of traditional sports journalism, and that is not a compliment. I like to read Rany, Fangraphs, et al because they don’t fall into that trap, but more and more Rany is failing that test (mixed metaphor notwithstanding).

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 31, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

after writing that, I realized I should be more specific:

as mentioned above, he seemed to start with a conclusion, then look for evidence to support it, rather than looking at evidence and trying to learn from it. For instance, he draws a general conclusion (prospects are overvalued) based on a few examples (“two trades that were made earlier this month”), ignoring whether the larger body of evidence also fits this conclusion.

Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 31, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

Is that Krist Novascelic, ex bass player for Nirvana?

if so looks like he’s fallen on some hard times.

by DickHowser4ever on Dec 27, 2011 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

that's pretty funny, and no one's above that sort of thing, but

while I disagree with Rany about what the Royals should be doing/have done this off-season (and about Trevor Cahill in particular), I think he does a good job of laying out his case. I disagree on the particulars, but he has his reasons. It’s not total fanboy-ism.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Dec 27, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

It's not so much a commentary on Rany's article, which was well-written (as usual) and well-argued

It was really just about the opportunity to create a sort of double-layered meme…which I will usually try to capitalize upon.

As far as Rany’s thesis is concerned, it strikes me that, by the time a consensus has formed among those commenting on an industry (i.e. prospects are overvalued), it is often the case that those within the industry have already reached that conclusion and are starting to act accordingly (see e.g. the Latos trade). I think the pendulum has already swung back toward the middle ground of prospects and veteran MLB’ers being accurately/equally valued. And then you have Krazy Kenny Williams.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 27, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

Apparently the way a small market team wins with prospects is by flipping them for veterans. Just don’t tell that to any small market team that has had success, because they haven’t done it that way.

I think the “prospects are overvalued” concept is being overstated by some (not necessarily Rany). On this site at least, I’ve read many write that prospects are overvalued so the Royals should trade prospects. The problem is that you’re either trading for vets who probably don’t have a lot of surplus value, or you’re trading for young players who will cost a boatload of top prospects (See the Gio Gonzalez trade). I don’t think either make sense for the Royals, unless they are very close and just need a certain player to put them over the top.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think we will go for it

Wr have our young arms brewing in the AA/AAA… Monty,Herrera,Arguelles, Will Smith, lamb.. Law of averages suggest that atleast 1 will pan out…

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Dec 27, 2011 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

He keeps banging the drum for the Cahill trade as a missed opportunity for the Royals

Because he went for less of a haul than Gio or Latos. But using recent trades to say there is a bubble is nice for discussion, but as a Royals fan I want more than “they are close, they have prospects, cash them in right now.” Who is overvalued and why? Who should be shopped?

by thelaundry on Dec 27, 2011 2:12 PM EST reply actions