11:07am: The Dodgers won't be bidding on Darvish....the Rangers aren't willing to gamble $100MM on Darvish...Red Sox are unlikely to be involved...
What will it take to win the post and the contract? Darvish reportedly is very proud and wants a contract bigger than Matsuzaka got. Is he worth it to us?
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Matsuzaka's posting fee was $51,111,111.11, plus a 6/52 contract
So really 6/103. And that was 5 years ago. I think the Royals would be able to sign a much more “known quantity” for that amount (or maybe less) in 2013. Plus, Darvish is likely to cost far more than that, both in the posting fee and in his actual contract. In other words, no thanks.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 12:53 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The Posting Fee is an Asset
It is treated the same way as a patent, amortized over the life of the contract. Having Darvish opens up opportunities no other player can.
It will increase the amount of businesses willing to advertise with you.
It increases brand recognition and goodwill, players will be more willing to come to the team. Other players will have better access to endorsements being in the larger market rather than just KC.
It will definitely increase attendance in the games he pitches, and since he is the best pitcher available it will also increase attendance through winning.
You are going to make that money back in revenues and, if Glass is looking to sell the team, through increased franchise value. If you’re looking to flip a house, and it costs $15K to put in a pool that makes the house worth $20K more, you put in the pool
I don't think simply signing Darvish would have the type of long, broad-reaching impact that you're expecting
This (very good) article pretty much dispels the idea that huge signings have any real sustained impact on revenues for the acquiring team. And Darvish is no Pujols or Rodriguez.
The one thing that does drive sustained attendance increases is winning. While Darvish would certainly help the Royals in that regard, the relative cost (and risk) of paying what it will take to get him this year is too high. The Royals are very likely to get a LOT more bang for their buck, and more certainty with a veteran MLB pitcher, in a loaded FA starting pitching market next year.
Your claim of a 133% return on investment for a pool addition is almost certainly a little…optimistic. In fact, I don’t know of a single home improvement that will get you even close to a dollar-for-dollar ROI, much less over 100%. Adding a pool, like adding a relatively unknown starting pitcher on a huge contract, is probably one of the riskiest moves you can make.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 9, 2011 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
You're talking about Liabilities
The Posting Fee is a depreciated asset on the balance sheet.
For round figures, $60M posting fee over a 6 year contract would be $10M off the top of revenue each year. If Glass were to sell the team in 3 years, there would be $30M of depreciation value left, which increases the value of the club.
He would also get the short term benefits of attendance increase the article points out. And Darvish also opens up the Japanese market, which other players cannot do, and is way more beneficial to a small market like KC than to larger markets like NY.
Two more out.
The Yankees are unsure about whether they’ll bid on Darvish….Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said this week he will not be bidding on Darvish….
That makes it a 25 team race. The thing about Darvish that is interesting to me is that it’s been said if the posting fee and contract aren’t equal to Matsuzaka he’ll be insulted and stay in Japan. We’ll see if that’s the case. Sounds like a Prime Donna aka Frank White.
I think the Rangers are probably going to go all-in on Darvish to counter the Angels' moves
It would be interesting to see how much they’d have to pay for Fielder and Darvish vs. Pujols and Wilson. I think, long-term, I’d rather take a chance on the first pair. Especially since you’d be likely to get them for less overall dollars than the second pair.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
me too on those two.
I believe Darvish is going to be much better than people think, and at 25 still should have a lot left in the tank.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
I still say that if we can get him for a ~$30 mil post
and a 50-60 5 year contract we ought to do it.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
That may be a worthy gamble
But I can almost guarantee that the winning posting bid is going to be about double that.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
you may be right...
but a $60 million posting fee means at least a $120 million total (given his pride, I doubt he signs for less than the Ham Fighters would make). I’m not sure anyone is in for $24 million a year for an unproven talent. At that price, even if he’s as good as I think he’ll be (and I’m way on the optimistic side of Darvish) he wouldn’t be good value, and if it’s anything less, then it’s a huge hunk of anyone’s budget.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
Yes
As it looks we could benefit from a lack of interest and the fallout from Matsuzaka. It may seem like alot but this is how I do it. We have to remember it is tough to get guys to come here in FA, so this would be a way around that.
Send Butler and Soria to TB for RHP Jeremy Hellickson and I would try for is Prospect Tim Beckam. This frees up some money for Darnish. We would only add $10 mil or less a year. $41 mil posting and 5 year $70 mil contract.
2012
Hellickson
Darnish
Sancez
Paulino
Duffy/Chen/
Hoe to the pen.
C Rob gets his shot.
no... just no.
Also its clearly Hoch… not Hoe
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
I'd do what he said minus that kid he said
Just darvish
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 4:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Why not??
And it isn’t Hoch…..evar!! He is a hoe
He was a better pitcher than Chen, Duffy, and Sanchez last year
In reality Hellickson wasn’t that much of a better pitcher than Duffy last year.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe 102 win is commenting on Hoch's ground-ball pitching style and comparing him to a gardening implement
Otherwise, it doesn't make any sense
Really
Hellickson 13-10 ERA 2.95
Duffy 4-8 ERA 5.64
you are gonna have to bring stronger shit than that win loss and era to win arguments here
Duffy has a better xFIP and K/BB ratio… Hellickson got pretty lucky.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
A difference
of 2.69 runs per nine innings wins this argument!!!!
For me, that's one of the best reasons to avoid him
He’s the anti-Felipe Paulino, and surprisingly, I mean that in a bad way. You’re paying for the absolute best value that player is likely to return, while at the same time risk getting a much, much worse player.
Do not get it??
What has he done that makes you think that, below are his minor league numbers.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476451
Looks like he just wins games and hardware everywhere he goes, so he can come to KC as far as I am concerned!
And
There was that whole Rookie of the Year Award!
Jeter has a bunch of Gold Gloves and he sucks at SS.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So
Hellickson is in that huge media market of Tampa Bay???? Come on, ROY awards cant be compared to those other “good ole boy” awards, you know because they are ROOKIES!!
stupid people vote on both awards
your all caps and your !!! almost convinced me though
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 9, 2011 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
You argue just to argue
Considering our current lack of starting pitching it amazes me that so many wouldnt want a guy like Hellickson on their team. Guess everyone loves watching Chen run it up there 85, or maybe Hochevar and his special mid game meltdown innings. Or we can all sit here and imagine how many Cy Young votes Paulino gets after the 2012 season. Sometimes I think Dayton’s entire family tree post on here on a daily basis. Some people have no idea how or the courage to have an orginal thought of their own. That is sad!!!!
I think the point is the peripherals don't match up to Hellickson's success
Recent studies have shown that pitchers have the ability to affect the BABIP but not much more than that…. so when they say Hellickson was lucky, they are comparing his BABIP and FIP and SIERA to those of the league and regression is what it says. It’s not a guarantee, it’s just a better read than a guaranteed box of (insert Tommy Boy quote on brake pads).
I’d love to have Hellickson because of how he commands the zone and uses multiple pitches doing it. But in the long run, once Duffy gets things figured out, he looks to be a better complete pitcher. That is what their argument is.
and if we're going with babip being somewhat of a skill...
why are hellicksons so all over the place in his minor league numbers? there’s nothing sustainable about a 223 BABIP
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 9, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Don’t jump to the conclusion, based on that research, that pitchers definitely control their BABIP and any low or high BABIP is about the pitcher’s skill and is therefore sustainable. That research shows us that pitchers have some more influence over what happens to balls in play than we knew before, not that they have complete control over it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Dec 9, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
you used the rookie of the year award as reasoning for him being a good pitcher....
can i still make the argument that bob hamelin was a good mlb baseball player? he had a much better rookie year than hellickson did
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 9, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Angel Berroa
was a great shortstop. -RRJ
2003 AL ROY
by Rufus R. Jones on Dec 9, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
The best strategy in a blind auction
is to publicize your true intentions to all of the other bidders.
Sooo we are not doing anything... Are we?!
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 4:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If he's very proud and somewhat of a primadonna
Isn’t it unlikely that he even gives a team like the Royals a chance?
Overgay is Destiny
He doesnt have a choice does he?
Either here or nowhere if we win the posting bid??
The question at hand is : will the Royals fork the cash and take a chance
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 6:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
No, he can reject the contract and go back to Japan
Then the team gives back the posting bid to the winning bidder. I’m pretty sure.
Yes
Perhaps 102win is equating Japan to “nowhere”, though. It seems much more interesting to me than that.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Yesterday was Pearl Harbor Day, so screw them!!!!
No, seriously…. He is coming to America for some cash, he is not going back!
Reports say he will go back if he feels insulted.
He knows the money is here, but in Japan, the ego is bigger. They don’t think like Americans. They have different values.
Somebody help me on that.
That’s what I think from spending a few weeks there and from talking to other people about the culture… am I accurate?
I only have been stationed in Korea
never made it to Japan.. BUT
the Honor system, Family name, and saving Face is REALLY important to the home grown Asians ( i.e. originally from thier native country Japan, Korea China ect.. )
Now from my encounters with the Korean culture money is nice and a commodity but it isnt the driving force of thier cultures. They value substance over materialistic mentality.
Ultimatley they have encorporated the western culture of Capitolism and infused it with thier cultre (s) very nicley.
So if they money isnt more than Dice K to save face he will not accept a low bid of money.
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 9, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
is darvish really a homegrown asian in that regard though?
his dad is iranian i believe and his parents met in america….doesnt really seem like the ‘japanese way’ would really apply to him
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 9, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
He grew up in the culture though.
His parents have adopted Japan as their homeland. I think it would have an effect. Not to mention reports out of Japan state that he is of the “typical Japanese value system”.
The Royals need to at least try for Darvish
He fits within their needs and goals perfectly.
*Extending Gordon is the number one priority in cash allocation, but they should easily have enough to sign a player like Darvish, even with most of their current roster getting raises.
*He’s a better player than Daisuke was and with less mileage on his arm (and specifically, less mileage at a young age). Add to that, Daisuke was still worth over 7 WAR for the Red Sox in his first two years, before he broke down.
*The AL Central is really vulnerable right now. Competition sucks.
Maybe the market for Darvish will change now that Wilson and Buehrle are off the board, but I think the Daisuke flameout may have unfairly decreased his stock. There aren’t a lot of pitchers this good that you can obtain for cash alone, and even fewer the Royals have a reasonable chance at. Try, maybe, zero others?
This!
You know with all of the other big teams saying they are not going to bid on him… Makes you think why not try!
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 6:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Do you REALLY believe all the smoke coming from these other teams?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yes !!.....
No… :/
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 6:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What makes you think the Royals have a more reasonable chance at Darvish as compared to someone like Jackson?
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Closed bidding process
EJax can choose where he goes and knows all the other offers. Darvish has to go to the highest offer, and no one knows what all the offers are.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I understand that part of it
But I’m just hung up on the fact that I think Darvish ends up costing $20M or so more than Jackson in total dollars.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
But think of the $$$ you'll generate from the Japanese media
I mean, Ichiro STILL has 50 reporters follow him EVERYWHERE he goes. And we’d have random people who look like Darvish dress up like him in our stands… :)
Well, because they're the Royals, bro
Bid the most money, you have exclusive rights to negotiate with said player.
I will give you this, though, Edwin Jackson is a much more likely Dayton Moore target, and one who is probably also underrated. I’d rather have him than Buehrle, for instance, but he’ll almost certainly get less money,
I just think the bidding for Darvish (even at the posting bid stage) is going to be so high
that it would be completely cost prohibitive for the Royals. I don’t think they’ve got any shot. Even if they put in a bid, I think it would be a longshot, “what the hell” type of bid between $30-40M. I still think a team like the Rangers (or maybe the Yankees) is going to fork over almost $60M to get him. And like you said, I think the Royals could probably get Jackson for not much more than the winning Darvish posting bid.
And I also think they should wait to spend any kind of money like this on FA pitching until next offseason. Much more bang for your buck then.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Dec 8, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think they will even make a longshot "what the hell" type of bid
Which is what I find frustrating. He’s probably not worth breaking the bank over, if it comes to that, but he’s definitely worth their consideration. There’s a decent chance he’s better than C.J. Wilson, though it is admittedly a gamble.
Why would they not post a reasonable amount for him (or even a little over that), all things considered? The trade market for starting pitching is being controlled by extortionist a-holes like Billy Beane, Andrew Friedman, and Theo Epstein (Gio, Shields, Garza). Good GM’s all, but not guys Moore should be negotiating with.
Right now, the free agents for 2012-13 do look good with Greinke, Marcum, Cain, Hamels, C. Lewis, and Anibal Sanchez coming off the board. But things always look better this time of year; half of those guys will probably be extended. 2012 is also a year I think the Royals should regard as a competitive year.
Oh hell yes!
Competitive and shocking year- 2012
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 8, 2011 7:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would imagine the Royals will throw a what the hell $30-35 million post...
Just for the hell of it knowing full well and good that, that won’t win you the rights.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2005: Royals win% = .4100, Chiefs win% = .4095
by averagegatsby on Dec 8, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
What are we thinking?!
We have the best farm system ever!!
Noel Arguelles- he exists
Will Smith
Tim Melville
Mike Mintgomery
I think we can pass….
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Dec 9, 2011 12:13 AM EST via mobile reply actions
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