Dayton Moore's Remarks to the Chamber of Commerce
by skibum1537 on Feb 10, 2011 10:46 PM EST
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PrintSo, I don't believe that I have posted here before although I have followed along for several years. My buddy went to the chamber of commerce event with Dayton today and he jotted down the following notes. I thought it would be interesting to get the take of everyone on here. Who know that Dayton was able to prolong his timeline from the mythical year of 2012 to 2013 without anyone noticing? I wish my bosses would give me 9 years, and somewhere between zero and negative progress at the highest level of my job, to prove that I am doing "a good job". Anyway, here are the notes that my friend jotted down. He emailed me this right after the meeting and was very enthusiastic, Catch his thoughts after the jump.
Some notes from the Dayton Moore conversation this morning:
- 2013 is the year
- To win a championship you need a leadoff guy, 3 and 4 hole guy
- He believes Butler is a legitamate 4 hole guy
- It takes 5-7 years to develop Latin American players due to cultural differences
- He says that Francis, Franceur, Butler are going to surprise people this year
- Gordon is going to breakout this year with his bat
- It takes 7 pitchers in a rotation to win a championship....3 starters, 2 righty relievers, a lefty and a closer (not necessarily dominant, but one that is fearless, can throw strikes and knows how to get people out
- He thought Grienke would leave in '06, '07, and '08....said it was a full time job to take care of him, but that he would take him back in 2013 because they know how to deal with him
- we will never be a 100 mill payroll team
- there were only 5 "home grown" players on the team when he started
- the Cuban defector we got and paid 7 mill last year had minor shoulder surgery that went fine and he will be in A ball this year like they thought
- Since he has been there only 2 organizations have had less picks than the royals so they have been effecient in their drafting
Let's hear it. Who has more confidence than before? He has done so well with so little :(
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I'd never really thought about...
…the 5-7 years for Latin American players. I wonder how true that is? And does GMDM really think Greinke would come back? Interesting. – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Depends on what he means
If he means teenage Latin American free agents, then 5-7 years makes sense. For a 16-17 year old acquisition, 5-7 years means the player makes it to the majors at age 21-24. That sounds reasonable. But saying that it is because of “cultural differences” seems odd. Isn’t it because they are kids who require many years of development to potentially become MLB-ready?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 10, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
I’m sure they have more obstacles to overcome with cultural differences, but I don’t think they make the majors at a later age than similarly aged American counterparts.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 11, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
that's a good question...
but it’d be hard to quantify since there’s probably NO non-latin 16/17 year old in any major league system ever.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Of course it'll take them longer
The majority anyway. Think of when you were 16. What if you signed a life changing contract, moved to a new country, left your family and friends and everything that was familiar, had to learn a new language, a new lifestyle in a country that is developed (vs. non developed), and the works.
Not to mention a lot of tension exists between the US kids and the int’l kids in a locker room. Most are divided but no one will let you know that.
If you aren’t a kid that adapts really well to change, you could take a while to adjust.
Its probably a combination of both.
With the latin players you usually end up with guys that are very talented but also very raw, and you have to shape that talent into something useful while simultaneously helping them overcome a language barrier as well as adapting to a completely new and likely much more prosperous life.
I would imagine if you had a similar situation, say a 17 year old from say australia who could already throw 95+ with a plus breaking pitch, he would probably see the majors before a kid from nicaragua with the otherwise same tools. I don’t know how big that gap would be, but i would imagine a year wouldn’t be out of the question
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
NY
Did you read my post in the fanshots?
I don’t know if that helps, but it’s a look into the life of kids coming from some of those areas.
They have to learn English, how to take care of themselves, ect, ect.
I have a solution for this 5-7 year Latin player issue.
“Buy American”.
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
So.....
….we’re supposed to stock the farm entirely with draftees and undrafted free agents?
brilliant plan
nah
we’re supposed to smuggle them into the country and then draft them in the last 15 years
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
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and the last 15 rounds of the draft too
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Sponsor, 2011 Royals Alumni Fantasy Camp/Royals 5th Starter Star Search
Thanks.
You see? If you just think things through, you’ll find the answer.
And now we can fire all the translators.
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
I knew that would be like throwing a live chicken
into a pool of alligators. But I did it anyway.
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
Why would we limit our talent pool?
If anything, we should be expanding our non-USA recruiting, since there is a significant cap on our USA-sourced talent pool (or at least the talent worth pooling).
Also, is this a bad time to point out that Latin American players ARE American? ‘Cause they are. They’re just not “’merican!”
So basically, Greinke is an asshole.
Not only did he pick on Billy, but he also is like a little kid that needs to be handled a certain way. I swear, every single day I like Zack less and less. I guess that’s what you get with crazy people.
I'm guessing not so much an asshole as a poor bastard who has a mild mental disability.......
I’d bet he’s got Asperger’s syndrome….which makes him come off like an asshole, but in reality he’s got different wiring than most of us…..“us” being society in general….I’d say the mental disabilities on this board are more prevalent than in society as a whole….but living in a basement trapped in front of your computer is bound to have some negative side effects.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 11, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Meh
There’s being socially awkward, and there’s rounding up people to make fun of someone else. Not saying Zack for sure did that, but if he did, he’s a jerk, social anxiety or not.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 11, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
You are prob right....if Zack, as my hypothesis states, does have Aspergers
he prob wouldn’t have the awareness/skills to round up a group for a hen peck session…usually Aspy people are very self centered, not in a egocentric way, but as in ’"I’m in my own little world" way….
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 11, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
I commented on this in the other thread
And think that you might be dead on. But, I too am starting to really think that Zack is a total douche.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 11, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I've thought about that too
Asperger Syndrome isn’t inherently connected to malice, but it does manifest itself differently from person to person.
Proud member of the Toledo Computer Club since 2010.
by KeepItCopacetic on Feb 11, 2011 12:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He hasn't been the same since Brad and Jen broke up
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Feb 11, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Between that and the demise of Tara Reid
I’ve been dying a little inside every day.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 11, 2011 10:51 AM EST up reply actions
The price hike on guacamole at Chipotle
really sent him over the edge.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 11, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
the divorce continues
“Billy, your dad is a deadbeat drunk, he was a pain in the ass when we were together!”
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by BHWick on Feb 11, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
That is just what Moore wants you to think
now that Greinke’s gone. So now, when this year’s starting staff compiles one of the worst records since the Phillies of the ’30s, you can take comfort in knowing that at least that asshole Greinke is gone.
Nice job, DM. This is not the pitcher you were looking for, eh?
by 2X2L on Feb 11, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Yes, sounds like politicking to me
When he was here, GMDM presented him as a superstar. Now that he’s gone, it’s “look at what a crappy player/person we were able to trade away”.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I think what it tells us more than anything else
is what DM really thinks about the likelihood of this year’s team performing well enough to keep his performance above reproach. I think it also suggests that he’s insecure enough now, with nothing he has done at the major league level working out at all well for years in a row, to apply some extra spin in an effort to stay around until the golden year of 2013.
It’s simple. People with confidence in their direction and position don’t need to tell tales like this.
Also, I thought hawkinscm87 was a proponent of greater wisdom through stereotypes. Is it really news to anyone that elite athletes can be assholes?
by 2X2L on Feb 11, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Greinke really was an idiot
I think a lot of GMDM’s cookie cutting with him was because he was trying to keep him happy. You have to hear some stories the scouts tell. Greinke is …. yeah.
Wouldn't surprise me a bit
about anyone who has gone straight to the pros from high school and has otherworldly talent. It’s not easy to grow up under those circumstances, I think.
But I still think it’s a telling question to ask why Moore would be dishing on this now. The club did not find it appropriate to fine him or discipline him for his behavior during the years he was a Royal, as far as we know. So now that he’s gone, why has it become an issue worth discussing? and by Moore himself?
Maybe Moore is sending a message:
“Act up, and I’m totally going to bag on you behind your back when you’re gone.”
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 12, 2011 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
Fixed
"Act up, and I’m totally going to bag on you behind your back when you’re gone."
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Feb 12, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's amazing
Two years ago, I bothered complete strangers with Zack stuff. Carried the JoPo copy of SI around everywhere I went. Totally loved the guy. Now I’m hoping the national league treats him like the new bitch in the prison yard. Ah, baseball. You’ve got to have people to despise along with the people you worship.
www.marklaflamme.com/books
Wow, if dealing with Zack was Dayton's full-time job
that would explain why he was unable to do any research into the abilities of the free agents he signed the last few seasons.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2011 10:54 AM EST reply actions 9 recs
I still picture his "stats department"
as a dog-eared copy of a 2005 USA Today Baseball Preview section, a Baseball Encyclopedia circa 2003, and the 2006 Braves Media Guide.
by sterlingice on Feb 12, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
•He believes Butler is a legitamate 4 hole guy
4? I see him at 3. Maybe he develops more power, but I still see him as a number 3 hitter, with someone more like Moustakas ultimately hitting cleanup. Am I off-base?
Batting order doesn't matter that much
but from a sabermetric perspective, you want more of a Three True Outcomes guy in the three spot, and it’s also the spot inthe batting order that sees the most DP opportunities, so…
I used to to batting order posts a lot at Driveline, and they took forever. But what I will say that the traditional notion of thinking of players as a “leadoff guy” or “#3” hitter or whatever is understandable, but also flawed to the extent they think of batting order spots as “stable” in the same way defensive positions are. It’s all relative. Of your best hitters, you generally want the guy with the best-OBP relative to his power hitting first, more power lower down, and so on. But it all depends on the other guys in the lineup.
One thing that research has found consistently is that the #2 spot is more important than #3, meaning you generally want your best three hitters in the 1, 2, and 4 spots, with the next two in #3 and #5 (and all else being equal, the #5 hitter should be better than the #3).
Honestly, given his relatively low power, good OBP, and DP problems, you could make a good case for Butler hitting first for the Royals. #4 would be my second choice, since it sees less DP opps than #3.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
little details
One thing that research has found consistently is that the #2 spot is more important than #3,
Its little details like this that make me fearful of the future. I can’t wait til october of 2013 when the Royals need to sweep the White Sox to make the playoffs on the last weekend of the season, and we’re batting Scrappy McWhite in the 2 slot because Yost likes his bat control
by Freneau on Feb 11, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Wait just a damn minute!
Where’s Jason Kendall gonna be?
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Feb 11, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Scrapy McWhite
is surely one of Kendalls nicknames, if not I’m totally making a sign saying that for opening day.
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
Rec solely for using
“Scrappy McWhite”
Seldom has two words summed up such a failed approach (Royals organizational view of the #2 spot in a lineup) so succinctly.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
In the PC world, you are mandated to use
Scrappy McVeteran
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
And in the Royals world
you can just leave the “S” off the first name
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
by loyal2sdad on Feb 11, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Nah, I'm not buying the "(S)crappy McWhite" argument
I saw Rey Sanchez with way too much time batting 2nd in his career for a guy with a career OBP of .308 and no speed because he played middle infield and had a bat that was only capable of singles.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=sanchre01&year=Career&t=b
by sterlingice on Feb 12, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the insight.
I generally agree, although it’s hard to get past the simple idea that you just need to get your best hitters as many plate appearances as possible (i.e. some version of the “line-’em-up-by-OBP theory”) . My comment, of course, was more based upon old-school notions of who “looks like” a #3, who swings like a #4, etc. I would assume that that is the way that GMDM meant his comment. In response to that, I just thought it odd that he would label Billy a cleanup hitter, given his current profile.
thanks for the insight
I really hope Moore doesn’t think in terms of batting order positions, but something tells me he does
Yeah, the second Greinke leaves the Royals, DM starts throwing him under the bus in public.
Everyone loves Greinke..then the second he leaves, he’s a jerk and a douche. Please. DM is nothing but a dirty, lying politician talking down to a fanbase that he thinks he is too smart for.
Also, Francouer is going to surprise people…STFU Dayton.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Feb 11, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I should have read all the comments - I echoed similar sentiments
in a comment after yours, yet now vertically above yours.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'm shocked.
This is the finest comment I’ve ever seen from you. Rec’d.
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
How much of the "bashing" is because people are asking about it
and he doesn’t have to protect the player? I don’t really see how he threw him under the bus up there…
Totally agree here
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
Dayton comes across
As just as much of a dick as he is trying to paint Greinke as.
by kcbottom9th on Feb 11, 2011 1:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
as noted up-page
it’s a divorce..
and Greinke should have rubbed some dirt in his anxiety disorder and manned up like a man. Ever hear of any Atlanta Braves having anxiety disorders? That’s because they’re the best organization ever!
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Yup, this is nothing more than DM trying to put some built-in excuses in case the trade doesn't work out.
OH, Greinke was a huge douche. Oh, we thought Greinke was leaving every year and it was so amazing that I was able to get this much out of him. Oh, Greinke was forcing his way out this offseason. Oh, Greinke made fun of everyone and quit on the team…blah blah blah.
DM is just trying to make this trade look as good as possible. Good thing he has one of the dumber fanbases in sports that laps this sh*t up like milk to a cat.
Killing time until time kills me
I'm going to beg to differ a little on that
I don’t think it’s one of the dumber ones out there. If we’re talking about median fan “baseball intelligence”, I think this one is in the higher half of the league. Yes, the Facebook fans are dumb but every team has those. And, really, how many fair weather fans are there still out there for the Royals?
Face it: the bandwagon is so small that it’s made up mostly of die hards. If the Royals start winning… then all bets are off. It’s like a conversation I had with a Reds fan when we went to a game in Cincy last year. “I’m trying to get them back used to winning or even just baseball again”, he said. If the switch flips and the team starts winning, there are going to be a lot of bandwagon fans who might vaguely remember Mike Sweeney (“was he that always hurt guy?”) and probably less about a name like, say, Jose Rosado or Mark Quinn and then nothing down into the Mike Wood, Colt Griffin, Andy Sisco bargain basement.
by sterlingice on Feb 12, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
I think we're all assuming a lot
Including assuming that the second hand reports of Dayton’s comments accurately reflect what he said, and that Dayton was fabricating or exaggerating the truth. Who knows. It sure seems like people are taking tiny bits of questionable information and blowing them up into “Greinke is an A-hole!” or “Moore is an A-hole!” or both. I don’t know that either is warranted from the tiny scraps of information we have which might be giving us as much as 0.1% of the picture. I’m really not sure why people are making such a big deal out of this. I guess it’s the same reason people love reading the National Enquirer.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
But I think we can safely assume
that Dayton would never be a HYPOcritical spirit. If that were truly the case, the entire foundation of my world would be damaged beyond repair. Innocence lost…forever.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 11, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
These are notes taken by skibum's buddy at the Chamber of Commerce event,
not a second-hand account, and they jibe very well with LimaTime’s account from his Dad of what DM said at the Tiger Club Luncheon.
Two events, same story. We also have the tweet from Nick Scott (although that didn’t name Greinke). Coincidence? I don’t think so. If this isn’t currently a talking point for GMDM, then I don’t know what a talking point is.
Anyway I don’t think we’re assuming a lot. Also, I don’t believe Dayton is exaggerating anything; he’s simply choosing what he says in order to leave a certain impression. That’s all.
Anyway I don’t think we’re assuming a lot. Also, I don’t believe Dayton is exaggerating anything; he’s simply choosing what he says in order to leave a certain impression. That’s all.
We’re guessing at his motivation. We’re guessing at what actually happened between Greinke and Butler and among Butler and other players. We have very little information and a lot of speculation. When I say that people are assuming a lot, I mean that some are assuming that Greinke did certain things. At the same time, they are assuming Butler’s complete innocense. And people are jumping to conclusions about what Moore is doing. Some think he’s fabricating. Some think he’s exaggerating. Most think he’s spinning. Few if any think he’s just reporting the facts as he knows them. Who knows what’s going on. We (the Royal’s Review “we”) certainly don’t.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You're right
that we don’t know a thing for sure. And never will.
I’m pretty comfortable with what I think, though.
I’m pretty comfortable with what I think, though.
People usually are. I think that people love to read between the lines and believe that they can see the proverbial man behind the curtain. While many times they can, I think more often people take very small pieces of a larger picture and fill in the rest with things that make sense to them, but it is more about their preconceived notions of the actors involved than an honest and accurate reading of a situation. And then this picture that they’ve created becomes fact to them.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
People tell stories
to make sense of their experience. This I can agree with.
And this is what we are wired to do: we construct narratives to make sense of our experience. These narratives will change over time, if they are found to fit poorly with the information at hand or if new assessments of old information are made.
Do we ever have absolute knowledge? No. All knowledge is merely story.
But enough about epistemology. We can cover it in more depth the next time Lee calls Meche.
In the meantime, while you can muse all you like about the doubtfulness of knowing, the actual topic at hand is obvious political hackery.
The reason I love this community of baseball fans:
Discussions about the true nature of a #4 hitter and the motives of the GM flow into epistemology without going too far off topic.
Studies have shown
that epistemological discourse s the small ball of debating strategies — by raising questions about the nature of knowledge, you’re just giving up a chance to make a point.
Also
if you’re actually responding to my comments and not just scolding the populace in general, I’ve never said anything that can be interpreted as “Moore is an A-hole.” To the contrary, I’ve gone as far as to suggest that others in his situation would do the same thing I’ve said he’s doing. He’s in a tough spot, and he’s using the means at his disposal to negotiate his way through it.
You’re the one who’s blowing up my comments into a bigger deal, if indeed they were what you were responding to. So, please get out that mirror: what was it you said about taking small pieces of a larger picture and filling in the rest with things that make sense to them?
It wasn’t about you. I’m just commenting on the various conclusions people have jumped to with regard to this little controversey.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2011 6:56 AM EST up reply actions
I posted this in the other thread
But I think that there’s too much being read into DM’s comments. It’s incredibly hard to control what you say all the time, and many of the people criticizing GMDM for these Zach comments think that DM is an idiot anyway. I don’t get the idea that this is all some sort of master plot to undermine the fanbase’s feelings toward Zach.
There’s nothing said here that hadn’t been said a hundred times before. The other comment about ZG picking on Billy was news, but for all we know, he only said it the one time.
Either GM is an idiot who has no idea how to do the most fundamental aspects of his job, or he’s a mastermind who subtly bends the fanbase to his will. But not both. Pick one.
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
The good news here:
So, Dayton thinks 10 good players is what it takes.
We already have the closer, and arguably 1 of the 2 righty relievers. Depending on whether one thinks Butler is good enough to fill either the #3 or #4 spot on a playoff team, we may be 20 or even 30% (!) of the way until:
PARADE!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Yeah, thanks for writing this up.
To win a championship you need a leadoff guy, 3 and 4 hole guy
Well, he’s not wrong, per se, but the lack of acknowledgment of the importance of the #2 hitter is just another in the count of 1,000 cuts.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 2:02 PM EST reply actions
you need to play better baseball
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 11, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
In the sense that your baseball players
come to play the game featuring use of a baseball better than they have been playing it before.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 11, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
What if you had
Carl Crawford, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton? Could they make up for having 6 other slackers like, oh say, Melky? I’m not being snarky – I’m actually wondering. Maybe I’ll save it for an open thread.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
My quick and dirty math says
Crawford+Pujols+Hamilton = 20 WAR
Melky x 6 = 3 WAR (assuming Melky is a 0.5 WAR player)
TOTAL=23 WAR
And if you had a lineup of all league average players, that would be 18 WAR. Make a few of those guys genuinely good players and you are up to around 23 WAR. Sounds like a good lineup to me. Now I think the fact that almost all of the value comes from three players and the other six lineup spots would be near automatic outs would decrease the likely RS of that lineup.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
batter fWAR for the AL Central in 2010:
Twins: 31.2
Tigers: 25.5
White Sox: 18.2
Royals: 14.1
Indians: 9.3
So, 23 WAR gives you a third-place lineup. Maybe that’s enough to make the playoffs if you have a strong enough pitching staff, but it’s a longshot.
OTOH, you would still come out ahead of 25 Willie Bloomquists.
Is that for the starting nine, or total team position player WAR?
I assume it is the latter. If so, bench players should add at least a little (net) to that 23. Regardless, the point remains the same. Decent total position player WAR. Could be enough to get you into the playoffs if you have a pretty good pitching staff.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Your first assumption is correct.
…but I’m not so sure about the (net) value of the bench players. Everyone on that bench is getting beat out for a starting spot by MULTIPLE MELKY CABRERAS. I can only assume that if those guys generated any WAR, it would be of the negative variety.
you couldn't have known this, but in my imaginary situation
ALL field players are Melky Cabrera equivalents, including the bench
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Also have to remember that WAR is a personal stat
While those 3 players value (WAR) wouldn’t decrease, their production (runs, rbis) would. So a lineup of those 3 plus 6 scrappy mcwhite guys would probably give you a worse offense then the line up with all average guys, despite having a better WAR
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
by RoyalPug on Feb 11, 2011 2:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
what about having
both the position group (a leadoff guy, 3 and 4 hole guy) and the pitchers he said you need (3 starters, 2 righty relievers, a lefty and a closer). And then fill in the rest with “slackers”?
I'm on board with this comment.
Maybe it’s not groundbreaking, but at least it reflects some savvy
3 starters, 2 righty relievers, a lefty and a closerThe Phillies made it work with 3 good starters (and so did the Diamondbacks and maybe the Marlins?). And while the closer may be overrated in the regular season, when you need to win one game (or four, as the case may be), the closer becomes much more valuable.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 11, 2011 2:07 PM EST reply actions
well
you gotta do some spin when the 2nd best player we got in the deal is gonna be in Omaha because we made a promise to Melky Cabrera.
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You've gone far off the rails
So this was calculated PR spin to make the Greinke trade look better because a significant portion of the fanbase is upset that Melky is going to be starting in CF over Lorenzo Cain, the 2nd best player the Royals got in that trade? What percentage of the fanbase knows who Lorenzo Cain is? What percentage of that group cares if he starts the season in Omaha? What percentage of the fanbase prefers Cain over Melky? What are the odds that Moore is feeling any pressure from the fanbase over a Melky-Cain decision? And I hope you don’t think Cain was really the #2 piece in that trade.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Scott
It’s just… peculiar… that someone can go from starting on the Brewers to not being good enough to beat Melky (if you believe what the team is gonna say).
But there’ll be people essentially saying “Why didn’t we get more” in the deal. And it won’t help if Cain spends most of 2011 in Omaha for no good reason.
And in the scheme of things, Cain and Escobar are 1-2, Jeffress is 3 and Odorizzi is an unproven commodity.
Granted, people are gonna realize quickly that the DeJesus deal was a screwjob. So that should take some heat off how the outfield turned into a clusterfuck due to DM hoarding outfielders
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I don’t think the vast majority of Royals fans are thinking in those terms. While most of them didn’t like trading Greinke and a great many of them didn’t like the take in the trade, I don’t think most Royals fans even know who Cain is. You’re looking closely at the trade and all of its components. The vast majority of fans are not.
And in the scheme of things, Cain and Escobar are 1-2, Jeffress is 3 and Odorizzi is an unproven commodity.
I’m not sure what the “in the scheme of things” modifier denotes but I disagree with your assessment. Escobar was clearly the #1. The rest are difficult to order. Cain and Jeffress would give more immediate production, but Odorizzi is a top 100 SP prospect. Odorizzi is an unproven commodity in the same way that Trout, Montero, Harper and every other prospect is. But good prospects are quite valuable.
But to get back to the real point, I don’t think Moore is under any Cain-Melky pressure. Sure people like you and I care about it and think it is a stupid decision. But most Royals fans don’t know or care where Cain plays in 2011. Moore’s only real pressure continues to be success after the 2011 season.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
You're right about the specificity, but Royals fans will generally care
if none of the players Moore got for Greinke does anything in 2011, while Greinke tears up the NL and the Royals’ staff looks like a bunch of Bullingtons. Could very well happen, although we hope for better.
Just putting away the nuts for the rainy days ahead, is all.
Certainly Royals fans will care about the 2011 performance of players in the Greinke trade
And if none of them were in the majors in 2011 this would be more of an issue. But Escobar and Jeffress will be there all season (likely) and I also think Cain will be on the team for 2-4 months. Now how they’ll end up performing is an open question.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 11, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
And there's a decent chance that the fanbase equates Escobar to Pena Jr
if Escobar hits like he did again.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
He Was Capable
Of making spectacular plays on defense, too, which didn’t hurt. They hardly made up for the routine plays he too frequently botched, but people liked them.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 12, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I don't buy that one. I care a great deal where Cain plays.
He needs to be our everyday center fielder. Case closed.
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
I'd rank it more like
1. Escobar
2. Odorizzi
3. Cain
4. Jeffress
Odorizzi has been ranked pretty highly around the league(OTOH)
Mayo 37
Law 102
BP?
BA Ranked ahead of Duffy
Project Prospect 70s
Fanhouse 95
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Cain
wasnt the Brewers starting centerfielder last year though was he?
he was being projected to start in CF for Milwaukee in 2011
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No he only played 43(34 starts in CF) games last year for them. Played pretty much all of August and September
he was gonna be in a battle with Carlos Gomez, one he likely would’ve won.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
He was at a position that was somewhat expendable because they
have Gomez and Chris Dickerson who they picked up in the Edmonds trade. Cain outperformed both of them the last two months of the season.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
It's not hard to outperform Gomez
Holy hell is he brutal to watch. He’s just a spastic who needs to be on adderall. He cannot focus enough to take instruction from coaches as the where he should be playing in the field.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 12, 2011 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW
Bob Dutton, in a chat posted at the Star today, more or less stated that Cabrera was assured a chance to start, and that Cain has options, etc. He also added in the stuff about if they don’t follow thru, then who would sign with us in future, etc.
He did go on to say that should Cabrera struggle early, he might have a shorter leash than normal.
So, do we root for Cabrera to do well, in hopes of dealing him for a “C” prospect midseason, or do we root for Cabrera to fail, so Cain can get some development time?
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Oh, and
Dutton did say that had the Greinke trade gone down first, they probably wouldn’t have signed Cabrera in the first place.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Was this lost?
Dayton mentioning that they’d be ok with having Zack back in 2013?
Let’s see..Zack here in 2013…Billy 2 years into his new contract…2 years left at a bargain to trade off…
just saying…Pump Billy up to show support that he was razzed, he plays well, is super valuable, trade him offseason after 2012, get good return. Sign Zack for 2013…Welcome home…
by KennyPowers_from_Scout on Feb 11, 2011 6:08 PM EST reply actions
Hey, I'm sure they have no objection in principle
to bringing Albert Pujols back to Kansas City also.
But making it happen is quite another thing.
meanwhile on Facebook
“I have supported and been q die hard fan until you guys traded grienke podsednik dejesus and let guilllen go, I just want you to know that David glass and Dayton Moore have lost me As a fan and are losing the next generation of fans, A’s long A’s our plan is two years every year I will not support and give money to a man that just got 12 million dollars and is pocketing it. I would b optimistic if we kept grienke dejesus podsednik and guillen but seein A’s how you didn’t I have every right to believe that all our great farm system players will be good and we will bring them up but then TRADE them. I wrote this just so you can know I will not support you and pay 10$ tickets knowing that David glass will just pocket it. Congratulations for losing he next generation of fans. Not only have I lost optimism but hope all together. If you see me in the stands I will be holding a sign “complimenting” our “superb management”. “Hats off” to the organization."
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
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What's facebook?
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
and where can I buy one?
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
what is it like pictures of peoples faces in a book or something?
:)
"If people don't want to come out to the ball park, nobody's gonna stop 'em."
~Yogi Berra~
That Would Be
“My Space”.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 12, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
two more things
1) I await the “Greinke Bad Man” stories getting more and more elaborate until we get the “Greinke made a drifter get plastic surgery to look like him and the drifter threw the lions share of innings in 2009” story
2) the other quirk with Cain in Omaha is that Dyson is gonna be in Omaha, and Derrick Robinson is gonna repeat Springdale due to that.
And you all are far too optimistic about the Melky situation ending quickly. Unless Melky leaves to take over a organized crime syndicate or gets gravely injured, he’s gonna play until at least August. As Dutton puts it, if we don’t give Melky tons of playing time, then other free agents won’t come here. Which is sort of like saying that you can’t kick the drug dealers out of your house or else other drug dealers won’t like you
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Unless Melky leaves to take over a organized crime syndicate or gets gravely injured, he’s gonna play until at least August. As Dutton puts it, if we don’t give Melky tons of playing time, then other free agents won’t come here.
I believe the argument put forth is that if Melky was promised a starting CF job then the Royals have to at least start the season with him there or else other FA’s will think that the Royals don’t keep their word they will just sign you, make promises and then bench you. Now I don’t necessarily agree with this theory and I’m not necessarily optimistic about about a quick resolution to the Melky situation, but I’m not sure where you get your certainty that Melky will be the starter until August. I would think that if Melky performs poorly he could be moved out of a starting role and likely before August. Moore has certainly done that with FA’s in the past. Moore has signed a lot of crappy FA’s for low-to-moderate money. And for players like that who performed poorly, Moore was often willing to bench or DFA the player well before August.
Brett Tomko – June 11 (last appearance before DFA)
Horacio Ramirez – June 5 (last appearance before DFA)
Sidney Ponson – May 6 (last start before move to bullpen)
One could argue that Kendall is a counter-example, but he had a two-year contract and I think Moore less willing to admit a mistake early in a multi-year deal. But with one-year deals, I wouldn’t expect him to allow a poorly performing player to make it to summer in a starting role.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2011 7:17 AM EST up reply actions
all of your examples are pitchers, not position players
a bit of a difference there.
I remember Tony Pena Jr having the worst hitting year in history and still making it 2 months as a starter. Before making it to 2009. Making less than $1M for both years, yet not getting demoted or released for over a year of -1 OPS+ hitting.
There’s not a lot of one-year-only FAs who start terribly. Ankiel? but Ankiel got hurt quickly. Usually the guys we bring in and overplay are like Ross Gload.
Dudes like Melky don’t get traded in June, they get traded in July, and once it’s obvious a trade is gonna happen, Melky would get more playing time instead of less, sorta like how we tried showcasting Jose Guillen (still a free agent!) last year.
At least there aren’t any porn actresses in KC, so Melky can focus on whatever he does while playing baseball
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There’s not a lot of one-year-only FAs who start terribly
True. But it seems like if a one-year FA comes in and does poorly, Moore is willing to dump him or minimize his playing time. I think this is doubly likely when there are decent replacement options (like Cain and others).
Dudes like Melky don’t get traded in June, they get traded in July
And often guys like Melky don’t get traded at all. They either sit on the bench or get DFA’d.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
What makes you think this?
At least there aren’t any porn actresses in KC
Well – maybe not famous ones, anyway. I’ll grant you that.
you're not an actress if you're a stripper
i’m sure there’s a screen actress guild for that genre
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And in the case of Ponson
If I remember correctly, that start was an emergency start due to some injury in the rotation.
He is correct about the difference between rotation and CF in this case, but Moore may not be as stubborn in such cases as popular mythology has it.
Proud member of the Toledo Computer Club since 2010.
by KeepItCopacetic on Feb 12, 2011 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
Actually Dutton specifically said he though Melky would have the starting job but WOULD HAVE A SHORT LEASH.
He might play everyday early on because he was promised it and to “showcase” him for possible trades, but the message being sent out through the media is that Cain is our centerfielder of the future. And the organization is highlighting Cain every chance they can – he was the featured player guest on the Hot Stove radio show the other night, he was included in the Outfielder Panel at Fan Fest, he is being made available to the press A LOT and since he’s all polite and warm and well-spoken they seem to enjoy interviewing him. (Oh crap! I think DeJesus may actually be being replaced in my heart. I didn’t think this would happen so soon. Maybe Cain is just a rebound player-crush? But he’s such a nice young man! And such a nice smile…)
Man
I’m rec’ing a lot of things NY says today. Is it bizarro world? We usually don’t see eye to eye but you’re right on Scott.
Now I'm worried
;)
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Feb 12, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
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