Royals Projections: Starting Pitchers

Winning comes from pitching. We all know it. There's no denying it. Playoff teams have great pitching. Championship teams have more great pitching. Almost every time, the World Series winner has the best pitching peaking at that particular time. Pitchers take up nearly half the roster, sometimes more than half, and for good reason. Great pitching means winning...and it all starts with the starters.

If there is one position that the Royals need prayer on, it's the starting pitching. Our ace is gone, and now we wait for someone to step up to fill the void. Right now, it looks like Luke Hochevar. We Royals fans are used to shrugging our shoulders and rolling our eyes.This group has a ton of question marks. Who's gonna step up? How are injuries or past injuries going to affect the team or statistics? Shoot, even trying to figure out who is going to start after Luke leaves questions.

If you have been following these projections, you may understand that I am not biased in any way when making my projections. I use their statistics from the last three years and the patterns they create. I take into account age, how long they have been playing, what level they have been playing at and any reports that have come out on that player. I then take my projections, Bill James and the Marcel projections and average them out to get a nice, argumentative estimate on how a player will do this season.  Follow these links to see the previous posts on the position players: catchers, !st and 2nd Base, the rest of the infield, and the outfield.

There are so many statistics to go by for pitching. WHIP is one of my favorite stats along with Ks per 9 innings. I had to start with innings pitched, as it is pretty vital as to who we were going to see the most. I went with a standard ERA. I hate going by wins and losses, but out of the pure curiosity to see if any Royal will get 10 wins, I included it.

Let's take a look at the Royals starting pitchers...

Luke Hochevar

Former number one pick Luck Hochevar is now our ace. Let's all just soak that in. If you already have, soak some more....

Since coming up to the bigs in 2007, he has done little but struggle. 2009 was especially bad as he had an ERA over six and a WHIP at 1.49. Pitching coach Bob McClure was sure Luke was gonna turn the corner last year, but due to an injury, he was limited to only 17 starts. Is this Luke's year? He has talent. No one has denied that. Is he ready to pop?

                     W     L     IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  7     9     138     6.72     2.8     1.32     5.06

Bill James       4     6       89     6.37     3.13    1.45    4.65

Marcel             7     9     125     6.55     3.1      1.4      4.79

TOTAL (avg)    6     8     117     6.55     3.01    1.39    4.83

No surprise to me on any of this except that Bill James and Marcel expect even less IP than I do. Not a good sign. I hope Luke does "pop" this year and logs in 200 innings with a WHIP under 1.2.

Kyle Davies

A former Brave, Kyle has potential. Correction...Kyle had potential. I think we all know what we get when he takes the mound. He needs to focus on the plate and cut his walks down. If he doesn't get ahead of hitters and be in control of the mound, it's gonna be a long season for him. Will this be the year he finally does that?

                     W     L      IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  8     9     140     6.04     4.06     1.51     4.89

Bill James       8     13    197     6.4      4.2       1.55     4.89

Marcel             9     11    164     6.37    3.84     1.47     4.69

TOTAL (avg)    8     11    167     6.27     4.03     1.51     4.82

Jeff Francis

The Royals needed a lefty to fill in until their young arms are ready to come up. Jeff Francis comes in to fill that void...kinda. A career that's been severely hurt by injuries, it may have been a risk bringing him to KC. Jeff had some success with the Rockies, including a World Series in which the Red Sox pummelled them. Since then, he's just been trying to stay on the mound. KC could be a fresh start to revitalizing his career. It could also be a one way ticket to rehab.

                     W     L     IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  8     8     139     6.19     2.56     1.41     4.74

Bill James       4     5      87      6.1       2.79      1.4      4.45

Marcel             5     7     111     6.41     2.68     1.38     4.50 

TOTAL (avg)     6     7     112     6.23     2.68     1.4      4.56

There should not be a whole lot of expectations from Jeff. If anyone thinks he's gonna be like he was in 2006 or 2007, you should comment why.  

Vin Mazzaro

Remember that grin David Dejesus always seemed to have? I wonder what his face was when he found out he was going to Oakland.

Vin Mazzaro kinda reminds me of Kyle Davies...except a little younger and he wasn't a Brave. He's got some talent and could be a middle of the rotation kinda guy...but he walks too many people. He's gone through stretches where he has been pretty good. He's still young and could blossom this year.

                     W     L     IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  6    8     124     6.4     3.33     1.35     4.25

Bill James       6     8     131     6.53    3.3     1.37     4.05

Marcel             6     8     124     6.31    3.48    1.44     4.46

TOTAL (avg)    6     8     126     6.41     3.37    1.39     4.25

I was pretty surprised by how even all the projections were.

Bruce Chen

I was one of the few that was happy we got Bruce Chen back. He's not great by any means, but outside Greinke, he was our best starter last year. I think we needed one more arm in there until the young arms are ready. I'm really hoping he can repeat last year or even improve on it. 

                     W     L     IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  9     7     120     6.05     4.0     1.46     4.41

Bill James       9     11    177    6.36     3.25    1.37    4.37

Marcel             8     7     124     6.39     3.56     1.41     4.46

TOTAL (avg)    9     8     140     6.27      3.6      1.41     4.41        

Sean O'Sullivan

Coming from the Angels last year for Alberto Callaspo was Sean O'Sullivan. A big, young righty with some potential. I'm not sure if he's seasoned enough for the bigs, but nevertheless...he's in KC. He may not start the season with the club, but we will probably see him later. A little wild, you can see the mind games of pitching working with him. I hope he can figure it out a little more this year.

                     W     L     IP     K/9     W/9     WHIP     ERA

My projection:  5     6     91     5.27     3.2     1.43     4.94

Bill James       6     9     131    5.5     2.95    1.45     4.88

Marcel             6     6     99     5.82     3.09    1.35     4.64

TOTAL (avg)    6     7     107    5.53    3.08     1.41     4.82

Overall, this is the Royals weakest spot and it needs to be their strongest. It should prove interesting how the starting pitching will improve over the course of this season and the next two. Will it be because of the arms coming up or free agency? Only time will tell.

Personally, I think there is going to be at least one of our young arms come up this year and contribute. He may start in the pen, but he will make some starts and pitch 80+ innings. 

Next up...

Relief Pitching...