2008 NYRoyal : Rob Neyer :: Scout.com Message Board : 2011 Scott McKinney
Discuss.
NB: I just discovered some pretty hilarious "nyroyal" related tags that must have been around for a while...
about 1 year ago
Matt Klaassen
24 comments
0 recs |
Comments
Relievers and busts are an interesting discussion.
If you draft someone to be a reliever and he comes up and does a pretty good job at the major leauge level in relief, you can’t really call him a bust. However, I don’t think many relievers who are drafted as relievers (like Tim Collins for example) make it into the top 100.
Also, if a player has bad years to start and then puts up a couple of good years, he could be much more valuable to a team then a player who puts up about 1.5 WAR a year every year. This suggests that the data should be weighted toward the last few seasons.
Go Royals!
While a reliever prospect who turns into a pretty good reliever and manages say an average of 1.2 WAR may have succeeded in the role for which he was drafted, he’s still providing a very limited value to his team. One can call him a “success” if one wishes, but I don’t think relievers deserve any more of a bump than they already get from the leverage element of the WAR calculation. In short, I think a 1.2 WAR reliever isn’t an average player but he gives something to his time, much like a decent bench player. Therefore I think they are rightly in the “contributor” category.
Also, if a player has bad years to start and then puts up a couple of good years, he could be much more valuable to a team then a player who puts up about 1.5 WAR a year every year. This suggests that the data should be weighted toward the last few seasons.
I believe the total value a team has received from a player over his cost controlled years is what is important. I really don’t think weighting various years differently adds to the analysis. I think it would skew it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 2, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
But that means the are carrying value in trades for thier team, so that
would certainly add to thier total value.
Go Royals!
I think it's important to note that this changed the calculus though
If we take relievers out of the success column we are looking at filling 19 or 18 slots, not 25. The back up catcher as well wont put up big WAR, not will the utility IF or 4th OF. None of the back up players need to be average.
According to this sort of analysis, we need 8 fielders and 4/5 pitchers to be either average or stars right? And the 5th Pitcher doesn’t need to be average either, so really, we need 12 players.
In other words, we need a total of about 35 WAR, but that probably means
More like 25 WAR from 12 players.
I think that's a good point.
To keep in mind that “average or better” players only need to fill 12 or so slots.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2011 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
why didn't you study all the non-prospects who turned out to be good
oh wait
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Sponsor, 2011 Royals Alumni Fantasy Camp/Royals 5th Starter Star Search
Sounds like you have a secret admirer
Anything written by NYRoyal is usually garbage. If you look and review the stuff written by NY Royal, you will realize he has little understanding in baseball, statistics, and how the world is.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 2, 2011 2:57 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
He came just short of saying that I can’t dress myself. But I do respect how he went all-in with his hyperbole.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 2, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
That's a valid question...
CAN you actually dress yourself? The only footage I’ve ever seen of you shows you in just sunglasses and boxers.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 2, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Well I can put on boxers and sunglasses
What else do I need?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 2, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
I don't like that site
First because I’m spoiled with the format and layout here and that makes it feel like its 1997, and second because it has more than it’s fair share of complete idiots and blue eyed delusional homers.
Harsh but true, and I’m aware people probably think that of me. I don’t care.
i check over there about once a day...
just to see if theres anything interesting…but ive never felt the need in 4-5 years to take the 2 minutes that it’d take to sign up for an account
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Mar 2, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you
They provide some really good info from time to time, but the bad apples spoil the bunch when it comes to commentors.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
The site has a lot of good prospect info
Including some members who post good info on the message board. But it isn’t a good place for analysis or discussion. There are some intelligent and reasonable voices. But they really are drowned out by the mass of ignorami.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 2, 2011 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
I belonged to it way back when it was Baseballboards.com over 10 years ago.
It has definitely changed over the years. At least it is not the kcroyals.com message board.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 2, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
I just took a sh*t with more intelligence than some of the posts from that Scout thread.
Killing time until time kills me
But how does that compare to NYRoyal and his
“usually garbage…stuff…[with] little understanding in … how the world is.” (When typing that joke, I realized that my ellipses editing actually improved the sensibility of that inane comment. You’re welcome?)
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Just being able to differentiate the word 'you're' from 'your' puts you ahead of 75% of the posters over there.
Killing time until time kills me
OK, does anyone care to catch me up
on exactly what happened between Scott and Rob Neyer? I see it mentioned from time to time, but would love the details from someone (or at least a link to the initial throwdown).
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
I have at times taken signficant umbrage at Neyer’s disdain for the Royals which I believe has often gone beyond fair criticism to mean spirited, hyperbolic ridicule. An example would be the time he said he was confident that the Royals would never again win the World Series, at any time, with any GM and any players. It’s impossible because they are the Royals.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 3, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions



















