2011 Royals Lineups (fun with Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis)

I love toying around with the Lineup Analysis generator on Baseball musings. The last ST lineup we saw yields 4.53 runs per game using PECOTA projections, for roughly 734 on the season. If you replace Getz with Betemit in the lineup, the best possible Royals lineup yields 4.661 runs using PECOTA, for 755 runs on the season (which would be the team's best since 2006 FWIW). Optimal lineup: 1 - Ka'aihue 2 - Butler 3 - B. Pena 4 - Betemit 5 - Gordon 6 - Francoeur 7 - Aviles 8 - Escobar 9 - Melky

about 1 year ago Tito42 10 comments 1 recs |

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What numbers did you plug in there?

Projections? Career stats? Last year?

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

PECOTA projections

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I have to wonder if Getz is worth 21 runs more on defense than Betemit?

I think it would at least be close.

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

I guess you'd have to compare the lineups Yost would actually use

So say you put Betemit in the 7 hole and slide Escobar down to 9 in yesterday’s lineup, that would give you 741 runs. Only a difference of 7 runs on offense.

by Tito42 on Mar 30, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Theoretical "Best" Lineup Getz vs. Betemit

Is 755 runs vs. 748 runs…still 7 runs.

by Tito42 on Mar 30, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I substituted Maier for Francoeur and things got barely better.

I guess I disagree with PECOTA on Maier. I think Maier is much better than Francouer.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

Mich's D is probably a win better at least compared to Frenchy

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 30, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

What about Cain being in that line up

with either Cabrera or Francouer on the bench.

by vic1124 on Mar 30, 2011 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

Best lineup with projected opening day starters (w/ Getz) = 748 runs

Best lineup w/ Cain and no Melky = 741 runs

Best lineup w/ Cain and no Francoeur = 743 runs

PECOTA doesn’t think Cain can repeat the results of his small 2010 sample size, but this little exercise shows that Melky’s on-base percentage is slightly more valuable to the lineup than Francoeur’s slugging advantage.

by Tito42 on Mar 30, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

No projection system (other than Marcel, which doesn't take minors or BABIP into account) thinks Cain will come close

probably because a) he was every bit as lucky on ball in play as Escobar was unlucky, and b) there was little indication inthe minors he could do so. Cain’s going to have to live up to his defensive reputation to be an average player in the MLB.

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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 31, 2011 8:57 AM EDT up reply actions