List your predictions for the Royals in 2011! (2012 optional)

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 1:11 PM EDT

Hey, guys. I thought it would be interesting if we tried something like this. Just comment with your prediction below. You can also list your 2012 prediction if you damn well please.

So, here we go. My Royals Predictions for 2011:

Starting Pitching:

Hochevar: 14-9; 3.50 ERA

Francis: 16-7; 3.30 ERA (This might seem like a stretch to some of you, but, I think that Francis, barring injury, can be productive this year.)

Davies: 13-10; 4.35 ERA

Chen: 11-9; 4.60 ERA (Expect him to be traded by the deadline, and Monty to come in, but we will get to that in a bit.)

Mazarro: 12-10; 4.75 ERA

Montgomery (IF he comes up): 9-3 (Assuming he comes up at the trade deadline); 3.00 ERA

________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, on to the lineup.

1-Aviles (140 Hits, 14 Homers, 80 RBI, .311 AVG)

2-Melky (115 Hits, 9 Homers, 55 RBI, 270 AVG) (I think that the Royals are over-hyping him a bit, but he can still do alright. Expect him to get traded by the deadline along with Frenchy, who we will get to in a bit.)

3-Gordon (I think he can break out, and "Dominate" like he said) (155 Hits, 29 HR, 80 RBI, .325 AVG)

4-Butler (180 Hits, 22 HR, 105 RBI, .330 AVG)

5-Kila (140 Hits, 31 HR, 80 RBI, .284 AVG) (I also think he can break out)

6- Frenchy (He's not as bad as everyone says he is, but they will trade him by the deadline) (105 Hits, 12 HR, 45 RBI, .275 AVG)

7- Catchers (Matt Treanor: 95 Hits, 35 RBI, .235 AVG) (Jason Kendall: He'll suck, no need for a prediction here) (Brayan Pena: We won't see much out of him this year, but while he's with us: 30 Hits, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .280 AVG)

8: Getz (He'll be replaced when Mous comes up, who we'll get to in a second, but these will be his stats through June) (35 Hits, 1-2 HR, 10 RBI, .248 AVG)

9- Escobar (125 Hits, 8 HR, 55 RBI, .280 AVG) (He'll be average)

?- Moustakas (90 Hits, 17 HR, 55 RBI, .305 AVG)

_____________________________________________________________________________________

I'm not going to worry too much about the pen, but I'll just throw in an estimate for Soria.

Soria: (43 Saves, 2.18 ERA)

______________________________________________________________________________________

How I think the team will fare:

I think that they will have a decent year. If they can be one of the top teams in the majors in hitting, have an OK-average starting rotation, better defense, and as good of a pen as we are projected to have, we could compete for (But probably not win) the Division THIS YEAR. Now, that might be a long shot, but I think we can make it happen, especially if we can play consistent. If we have a hot start to the season, and play steady throughout with a few flashes, we could win the division.

Projected record (If we play consistent): 86-76 (1st or 2nd place)

Projected record (If we play like we have been): 76-87 (3rd or 4th place)

________________________________________________________________________________________

Unlike many, I believe in this year's team. I think they can play well this year, and with potential. I'm sure most of you don't think the same, but, this is the best team we have had since '03. Maybe even better.

That is just me, though. Please, give your predictions in the Comment section.

Tweet Comment 77 comments | 1 recs |

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Comments

agreed

Chiefs Might

by chicks_love_chiefs on Mar 30, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

I just think you're being too pessimistic

I have the Royals going 100-62.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Mar 30, 2011 1:51 PM EDT reply actions

Rather than these types of predictions...

You could set up an over/under set or predictions. That’s much easier. In order to do predictions like you, it would take actual work, which is not happening.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

I don't really get what you mean by that.

I understand the over/under thing, but, I don’t really get the “In order to do predictions like you, it would take actual work” part.

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

It would take typing out a bunch of stats.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

why don't you just say over/under what JM posted?

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 30, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay.

Frenchy hitting .275— Under
Gordon hitting .325—Under

I’m not sure these are realistic o/u to start with. Check that. I know they aren’t. Perhaps someone else could do them.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

With all due respect, you're way optimistic

about everybody but Billy and maybe Escobar, Moose, and Frenchy (assuming your prediction is for a full season for Frenchy and a June callup for Moose). I can see Frenchy hitting .275/.300/.380 with twelve homers. I could also see Avilés hitting .300/.340/.410 with eight homers, if he actually gets to play a full season, so you’re not excessively high on him.

"America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain

by Juancho on Mar 31, 2011 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I admire your enthusiam, sir

However, to borrow the words of the Man in Black…get used to disappointment.

By the way, you do realize that Gordon’s lifetime BA (over 1642 PA’s) is .244?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 30, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

He looks better in ST, like he's finally found his groove.

I think he is going to do well this year with all the confidence he has gained.

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Well yeah, he's going to dominate.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Mar 30, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Groove. Confidence. Spring Training stats.

If he was only in the Best Shape of His Life, we’d clearly be looking at an MVP-level season.

One question: Is finding one’s “groove” the equivalent of being “locked in”? Or is “locked in” even better than finding said “groove”? I need a ruling.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 30, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's just say that he looks like he is "Locked in" to his "Groove".

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

In all candor,

I’d rather be locked in, because being in the groove strikes me as being outdated.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Mar 30, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

In The Groove

Is not the same as groovy.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 30, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I think of "locked in" as being a stronger statement about the current yes/no ability

but “in a groove” has a longer life. Such as you can be in a groove for a good third of a season, but you certainly can’t be locked in for that long.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 30, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions

“In a groove” slow, steady, consistent, pretty darn good.

That said, I would say that being “locked-in” is borderline heroic.

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, confidence is good.

But what about everything else?

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

66-96

Team leader in:
AVG: Billy Butler .323
HR: Kila Kaaihue 26
RBI: Jeff Franceour 75
OBA: Billy Butler .389
SLG: Billy Butler .491
Runs: Alex Gordon 89
Stolen bases: Chris Getz 20
Wins: Luke Hochevar 12
IP: Luke Hochevar 189
K: Luke Hochevar 110
Saves: Joakim Soria 31

Mike Moustakas debut: June 17. He hits .242/.308/.416 10 HR 52 BI
Eric Hosmer debut: August 8. He hits .265/.323/.373 3 HR 34 BI

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2011 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

You're doing it wrong

Completely realistic predictions aren’t nearly as much fun

by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 30, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty good list.

I hope Getz doesn’t play enough to get 20 SB

I see Aviles leading runs or BA

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 30, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Ha!

They’ll never let Aviles play long enough for that to happen.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm....

I’m gonna give the strikeout crown to Davies at 130-140.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Stolen bases goes to Escobar at 30

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Good call

Overlooked him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

For the most part, you're too pessimistic I think.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

That seems about dead on to me. People will outperform, others will underperform.

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

The Frenchy RBI thing is kinda tongue-in-cheek

I really don’t expect him to be on the roster by the ASG. Butler is your RBI leader with say 88.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

rec'd for 100% accuracy

except for frenchy, and for giving moustakas a higher walk rate than hosmer

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Mar 31, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions

As in the words of my fav KC chief Derrick Thomas...

“Believe”
The Royals are going to shock the league by how well they play, maybe not a cast of All stars BUT we are done with the cellar dwelling; time has come to live up top the mountain/ standings in the division where the air is crisp! Los Royals forever baby! Powder Blue Bombers!!!!

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......

by Mas Cervezas on Mar 30, 2011 4:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I might be a little over-optimistic about the Royals this year.

But, who says that’s a bad thing?

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

on the eve of Opening Day--not a bad thing at all.

We all hope you are right.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Mar 30, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not a bad thing.

But perhaps also not a good thing when you make a fan post like this. Not like you have to agree with projections, but you have to have some sense of reality. Maybe i’m just too critical, but if this is “optimism”, then be quietly optimistic.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

‘unrealistic’ =/= ‘bad’, necessarily.

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

"Francis: 16-7; 3.30 ERA"

I’d love for this to be true, and I hope it is. If he pitches that well, he’s going to get traded for sure. We might actually get something useful for him!

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Mar 30, 2011 4:51 PM EDT reply actions

Gordon/Butler

Gordon .310/380/420 40HR 120RBI Butler .337/372/449 25HR 120RBI 60db

by mandoball on Mar 30, 2011 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

That's more like it.

Go big or go home. Although with 40 bombs, I think Gordon’s SLG might be upwards of .500

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

If Gordon does that

He’ll still be called a bust.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 30, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

itd mostly be amazing bc i feel like that stat line is nearly impossible

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Mar 30, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I love preseason optimism

But, if that pitching staff posts numbers anywhere near that, I’ll eat my hat. This staff is beyond bad.

Hating Zack Greinke irrationally since 2010.

by royaldaddy on Mar 30, 2011 6:42 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

You guys are supposed to list your predictions, not critique mine.

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

Laugh out loud.

I told you making predictions is just not something people want to type out.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

by Jack Marsh on Mar 30, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

…

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I will give you some simple ones

Hochever 8-15 4.59 ERA 205 IP
Francis 9-13 4.23 ERA 170 IP
Chen 12-16 4.71 ERA 169 IP
Davies 6-17 5.88 ERA 166 IP
Mazzaro 7-10 5.03 ERA 138 IP
O’Sullivan 3-6 5.11 ERA 77 IP

Escobar (I am high on this guy) 12 HR, 57 RBI .268 with 33 steals
Cabrera 11 HR 60 RBI
Gordon Optimistic: 28 HR 79 RBI .283
Pessimistic: 14 HR 53 RBI . 236
Butler 24 HR 88 RBI .312
Francouer 21 HR 73 RBI .248
Aviles 13 HR 67 RBI .296
Getz 6 HR 46 RBI . 267
Pena 5 HR 25 RBI in limited time
Kendall Not worth a shit. Seriously, that’s my prediction for Kendall
Kila 29 HR 91 RBI .283

Others:
Betemit 9 HR 39 RBI .287
Dyson 0 HR 19 RBI 18 SB .243
Maier 5 HR 29 RBI .268

There’s some simple ones that I came up with on my iPhone so don’t kill me over spelling errors because autocorrect sucks sometimes.

Hating Zack Greinke irrationally since 2010.

by royaldaddy on Mar 30, 2011 7:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Like the Kendall prediction

If Davies craps the bed that badly, he’ll be released and they’ll promote someone to replace him. I think he’s on a short leash.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 31, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I think that's pretty fair and accurate set.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Mar 31, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Pena will be

waived or traded when Kendall gets back, and Yost will hit Kendall 2nd and play him every day.
The starting staffs ERA will be over 5.00.
Gordon and Kila will both hit under .270 but will still be + players because of their walks and power.
One of the Melky/Frenchy combo will still be here after the deadline.
Jarrod Dyson will get Huberlike playing time, and his growth will be stunted.
This team will lose 100 games.

Don’t get me wrong, I love this team, but every year there is spring optimism on this site, and I think we are letting our 2012 optimism get in the way of our 2011 reality.

My preseason prediction has not been off by more than 4 games since the 2003 season. I hope they surprise me this year.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Mar 30, 2011 7:58 PM EDT reply actions

oops!

I was off by more than 4 in 2004 as well, but I still have 6 consecutive years of getting it close.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Mar 30, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

At this point, I don't think it will take a ton to get to .500

Mainly because the Starters are so bad, that if we replace them, we should gain a bunch of wins automatically.

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

...and this from an A's fan to boot...

2011- 65-97worst, 71-91best
2012- 69-93worst, 78-84best
2013- 74-88worst, 88-74best
2014- the AL Central
2015- the whole f***ing thing!

Your 2011 Athletics: Halfway like a mama bear protecting her young,
and halfway like a vampire biting into a series of defenseless necks.

by Gaijin_Suketto on Mar 30, 2011 8:38 PM EDT reply actions

The royals record this year

will be eleventy billion wins and zero losses. Every team from every level of baseball, from little league to the majors, will concede their games to give the Royals the victory. They will cower before our AWESOMENESS

by don_jerovanni on Mar 30, 2011 8:47 PM EDT reply actions

C’mon man, at least make an attempt to be realistic. Let’s confine it to the majors.

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m going to rec this thread, if for no other reason than to pitch my new treatment for an hour-long, prime time dramedy—think ABC or TBS, Tuesdays or Wednesdays, 9pm Eastern or thereabouts.

It’s a coming-of-age type thing; Wonder Years meets Party of Five meets Barney Miller.

Young guy leaves the family farm, moves to Manhattan to go to college, rents a loft, studies architecture, etc.

Except, instead of a guy, it’s a cat:

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, but can he drive?

Toonces could drive and has driven around presidential candidates and fought off Terminators. Good luck topping that, my friend.

Hating Zack Greinke irrationally since 2010.

by royaldaddy on Mar 30, 2011 9:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Funny.

Almost Elijah Wood in Wilfred funny.

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

73-89

Gordon: .269/.366/.458 19
Ghost Face Kila: .274/.384/.491 26
Aviles: .290/.341/.445 14
Escobar: .276/.369/.405 11
Butler: .316/.410/.422 18

Hochevar: 7-17 4.65
Chen: 9-12 4.44
Hiram: 11-10 5.17
Frenchis: 13-8 4.33

Nyost: 7 ejections, 4 blown putting-soria-in-earlier-than-traditionally-expected opportunities

"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 9:18 PM EDT reply actions

So are we going with Ghost Face for Kila?

That’s way cooler than Hawaiian Punch.

by AxDxMx on Mar 30, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Either

Kila Monster
Ghost Face (hadn’t heard that one yet—but loving it); or
Serial Kila

We should have a RR Vote and everybody on RR use that name. It’s a good way to test our clout as well.

by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it should be

Super Cereal Kila

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Opening Day is March 31st!!!

by averagegatsby on Mar 30, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Completely off the top of my head...

Hochevar (10-12, 3.99)
Francis (8-7, 4.22)
Kyle Davies (11-11, 4.78)
Bruce Chen (6-14, 5.66)
Vin Mazzarro (9-13, 4.80)

C Matt Treanor (.215/.265/.320)
C Brayan Pena (.282/.321/.401)
1B Billy Butler (.314/.399/.479)
1B Kila Ka’aihue (.255/.365/.440)
2B Chris Getz (.245/.300/.336)
SS Alcides Escobar (.269/.321/.381)
3B Mike Aviles (.297/.338/.422)
3B Wilson Betemit (.280/.340/.435)
OF Melky Cabrera (.250/.315/.368)
OF Jarrod Dyson (.200/.237/.295)
OF Mitch Maier (.266/.333/.387)
OF Jeff Francouer (.270/.301/.405)
OF Alex Gordon (.259/.362/.439)

Team Record: 71-91

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 10:40 PM EDT reply actions

and Soria (3-3, 33 SV, 2.71 ERA, 70 K, 61 IP)

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

No way Chen regresses to only 6 wins this year.

Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Opening Day is March 31st!!!

by averagegatsby on Mar 30, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh did I say 6, I meant 26

Chen so awesome. We so excited

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems like, I'm over-optimistic, and you guys are over-pessimistic.

I think that we could have at least one pitcher with a winning record. I mean, come on.

by Jack Marsh on Mar 31, 2011 2:18 AM EDT reply actions

Sure we will, most likely a reliever though.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Mar 31, 2011 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Or possibly Hochevar gets hurt after starting the season 3-2.

by Tito42 on Mar 31, 2011 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

66 wins from this rotation definitely over-optimistic (last year's starters won 49)

Love your optimism, and I would be very happy if even one or two of the sunnier predictions came true. More than likely, someone will perform that well, but I doubt as many have good seasons as you predict. If they DID do this well, then they will be in contention. 144 HR’s from those guys is a lot.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Mar 31, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions