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Five Royals Predictions For 2011

  1. Melky Cabrera Will Be Traded: It's best to begin with a hopeful one. The signing of Melky Cabrera didn't make much sense when it happened. It made even less when Lorenzo Cain was one of the centerpieces of the Zack Greinke trade. Oh, and the Royals had to promise Melky the starting job, because, well, heaven forbid we not snag him. This is how our Front Office operates people. Do you know what Melky's career slugging percentage is? .379. There's very little difference between Cabrera and someone like Gregor Blanco, save that Blanco is probably better defensively. Dayton Moore's Royals tenure began with an aggressive approach to trades. Then, he ran out of Baird guys, and grew more hesitant. Then, beginning with last mid-season, he got aggressive again. Cabrera isn't good and there isn't likely to be much of a market for him. Unlike Dick Ankiel, he doesn't have an elite (perceived) skill either. Still, someone will get hurt somewhere, someone will want to get rid of their own pointless guy, and a deal will get done.

Star-divide

  • Kyle Davies Has Begun His Last Season as a Starter in the Big Leagues: I gave up on Davies in 2010. He is what he is: a generally ineffective starter. Yes, he's Southern and was a former Brave farmhand and he's had his moments. He got 32 starts to take a step forward in 2010, and he never did. He won't get 32 more at the big league level. The Royals were right, I suppose, to spend four years giving Davies chances, and now it's time to move on. Davies might have a future as a reliever, maybe even with the Royals, but the days of him starting are winding down.
  • Matt Treanor Will Post More PAs than His OBP: Yost will fall in love with his whateverness. Pena will be ritualistically executed after allowing two passed balls in a game. Outs will follow.
  •  Alex Gordon and Kila Ka'aihue Will Split the Difference: Another semi-optimistic prediction. One of these players will have a good start/season (in the organization's eyes) and become Made Guys, or at least non-horrible trade prospects. One will, one will not. My hunch is that that player will be Gordon, who at least doesn't have Eric Hosmer bearing down on him.
  • Either Wil Myers or Eric Hosmer or Both Will Debut in 2011: Probably in September. Hosmer is much closer to being ready, but both are still actually really young. In any case, the Royals will promote at least one of them in September, joining Mike Moustakas and one or two of the young pitchers.
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    Clint Robinson gets traded and crushes the ball for his new team.

    - .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

    by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 30, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

    As long as that team is the Cardinals.....

    …and Robinson is playing 1B, I’m ok with that.

    /welcome to post-Albert days, aka Hades, StL fans….ha ha ha ha ha ha

    /tweeting.... @displacedsptsfn

    by okstarsfan on Mar 30, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I agree with this unless it's snark.

    The dude can flat out rake. He’s just in a wasteland behind all of the 1B logjam in the Greatest System on All Time!

    I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

    by mitchfreakingmaier! on Mar 31, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

    you know what's going to happen

    melky is going to be traded back to Atlanta in some sort of pointless swap of overrated players for an actually useful prospect, like Dayton calls and says I will give you Melky and Jason Kendall’s leadership qualities for your surprise playoff push in exchange for craig kimbrel and brooks conrad.

    DOne.

    Waiting for April.

    by DC Royal on Mar 30, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions  

    He's supposed to return mid-season, I believe

    The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

    by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 30, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I always wonder

    How the trades with Atlanta go down. To an outsider it seems like micro-cartel within the cartel of the MLB behavior. Like does Dayton have the braves on speed dial and call them to tell them, “I’m putting X player on the market, you have first dibs.”. Or is it that he panics when he can’t find an adequate trading partner so he goes back home to where he knows people and everything is familiar?

    For example, if the Montero for Soria trade rumors were true do you think he called John schuerholz to ask him what he thinks about the offer?

    Waiting for April.

    by DC Royal on Mar 30, 2011 5:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

    Ditto

    My second team is Atlanta and Kimbrel is a beast!!

    Hating Zack Greinke irrationally since 2010.

    by royaldaddy on Mar 31, 2011 1:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

    I hope you are right on Davies

    "We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

    "Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

    by loyal2sdad on Mar 30, 2011 5:31 PM EDT reply actions  

    Great idea for a fanpost.

    Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
    Rock Chalk Talk

    by Warden11 on Mar 30, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

    OT: What kind of belt should I wear today?

    The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

    by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 31, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Francoeur hits .185 and gets released. Moves to Japan.

    by fightwookies on Mar 30, 2011 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

    US media continues to insist

    “He is in the best shape of his life and is ready to turn his career around with the Hokkaido Dragons.”

    Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

    by RoyalsRetro on Mar 31, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

    The fact that Treanor is starting opening day

    and will catch more often than Brayan Pena is horrible news I think your third prediction will definitely happen, and Matt Treanor will almost be as hated as Jason Kendall by the end of the year.

    by Connor Moylan on Mar 30, 2011 5:57 PM EDT reply actions  

    I can give you about 6 millions reasons....

    ….why I won’t hate Treanor as much as Kendall.

    ok….maybe 5.5 million reasons.

    /2 out of 5 isn’t nearly enough, but better than 0 out of 5 in 2010

    /tweeting.... @displacedsptsfn

    by okstarsfan on Mar 30, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

    5 is spot on

    although i would like to see Hosmer stay down in AAA all season, he’ll be coming up in september.

    Do these effectively hide my thunder?

    by splitty on Mar 30, 2011 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

    yes, unfortunately.

    Should we be hoping for a mediocre year so he stays in the minors all season?

    "Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt

    by Crooow on Mar 30, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Coming up in September wouldn't cut into

    Hosmer’s service time, would it? Also, if Hosmer completely destroys Triple-A to the point that there’s no more for him to learn there, we ought to think about moving him up to MLB midseason so he’ll be readier for the 2013-04 push.

    I’d like to see Myers hit for at least a half-season at Triple-A before we even think about bringing him up.

    "America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain

    by Juancho on Mar 31, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

    which is why

    you don’t see really legit prospects called up in September any more, just organizational filler types like Jai Miller.

    by sfeldkamp on Mar 31, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

    I hope a new

    CBA will correct this and take out some of the gaming of service time that’s necessary.

    by sfeldkamp on Mar 31, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

    I guess I'm not clear on the meaning of service time

    I had assumed that you had to play a certain percentage of a single season for it to count for a full season’s worth, when calculating free agency and pensions and whatever. I thought that was why so many players used to come up in September two or three seasons in a row, because it didn’t matter to the club whether they got some PAs or IPs in the major leagues.

    "America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain

    by Juancho on Mar 31, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

    A week in Sept counts just the same as a week in May,

    but there are several reasons why it might not hurt to have a Sept callup.
    If he’s up for a week (or two, or three, etc.) this September, then you can just wait a week longer next season before calling him up, and the service time clock is right where it would have been without the Sept callup.
    Or the player isn’t really someone who’s long-term cost is an issue, such as Aviles or Kila, who will be pretty old by the time they reach significant arb years or post-arb years.
    Or the player is not really a pro prospect but they’ve had a nice minor league season so you reward them with a couple week’s ML pay and a chance to be in the majors. The Royals haven’t done this recently, but I seem to remember that this would happen here and there in the past.

    The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

    by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 31, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

    he could be up even earlier

    I expect the Royals to get off to a hot start due to the easy April schedule and the hot spring training. It’s 2003 all over again. Dayton will misread that and start rushing prospects to make a push for contention.

    by sfeldkamp on Mar 31, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Davies’ ineffectiveness is far overstated. He is clearly a below-average starter. He is nowhere near bad enough to never get a chance as a starter again. There are other guys worse than him that have and will start for longer. People’s perception of Davies as too awful to start is fueled by people hating watching him pitch and nothing more. He’s below-average, but that’s it. He’s not Joe Mays or Scott Elarton.

    Killing time until time kills me

    by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 6:05 PM EDT reply actions  

    I think he really is that bad.

    His WHIP resembles the recent Scott Kazmir.

    by hawkinscm87 on Mar 30, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Well WHIP is one stat.

    Here are better ones. Davies struck out more batters per nine innings than Kazmir last year. Walked less batters per nine innings than Kazmir last year. Davies had a 4.46 FIP last year. Kazmir’s was 5.83. Davies had a xFIP of 4.73 last year. Kazmir, 5.42. Davies also had the better ERA by .60. All of this in 33 more innings of work.

    Davies was a clearly, CLEARLY superior pitcher than Kazmir was last year. Give Davies a decent defense and his ERA is likely in the 4.80-5.20 range consistently. Clearly below average, but considering guys with the numbers of Kazmir are still able to get starting jobs year in and year out…that just proves my point. Davies is nowhere near bad enough to be relegated to the bullpen the rest of his career.

    Killing time until time kills me

    by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

    WHIP is an awful stat to use to evaluate a pitcher

    It is as much about defense as pitching. Defense-independent stats and the metrics that combine them are more telling. EspeciallyK is right on the mark. Look at FIP, xFIP and tERA. They tell you a lot more than his ERA or WHIP.

    You may know me as NYRoyal.

    by Scott McKinney on Mar 31, 2011 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

    If it's the only stat you use

    when evaluating a pitcher, then it is awful. As one of a number of stats that you use (along with scouting reports), it’s at least somewhat useful. Walks are completely due to the pitcher, as are home runs, and other hits are at least partially due to the pitcher. There’s a good correlation between WHIP and general effectiveness; you’d much rather have a 1.10 WHIP guy than a 1.50 one.

    "America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain

    by Juancho on Mar 31, 2011 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

    That certainly may be true...but we all know there are plenty of bad GMs out there willing to pay for mediocre/below-average starters.

    No, I don’t want the Royals to bring back an expensive Davies…I just don’t think that NO GM will be offering him an opportunity to start again in the big leagues….

    Killing time until time kills me

    by EspeciallyK on Mar 30, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

    After he's non-tendered, his price will go down on the FA market

    And I think EspeciallyK is right that some team will pick him up. He’ll probably be somebody’s #5 SP. Without looking at every team, I bet he’s better than most #5 SP’s, at least if you look at more meaningful stats. And many GM’s look at more meaningful stats nowadays.

    You may know me as NYRoyal.

    by Scott McKinney on Mar 31, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

    I remember looking at #5 starters across baseball last year...

    and they were pretty bad. I think there were no more than 5 or 6 with sub-5.00 ERA’s. So yeah, Davies would be pretty competitive amongst #5’s.

    If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

    by setupunchtag on Mar 31, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Close Enough

    I agree on Cabrera being traded, but think he carries his weight until then, while Francoeur ends up platooned or on the bench after a quarter.

    Agree on Davies and think that is why Crow was kept and that what will happen is Crow and SOS will clean up after Davies for about eight starts, then Crow and Davies switch places, Davies getting his chance to throw three decent innings a couple of times a week while Crow becomes a starter.

    Treanor is the replacement for Kendall and I don’t think Kendall comes back, instead keeps getting extended on IR, then gets released.

    I think Gordon and Kila both have good enough seasons, but probably won’t be enough to keep Kila beyond the Hosmer call-up in June or Gordon ahead of Myers and Eibner when the time comes. Both will be playing for trade value, Kila probably taking his 15 hrs and .360 OBP to greener pastures.

    September call-ups will depend on the Royals’ record, I think Hosmer actually comes up around the break, and Myers may get a peek, but better ETA will be ’11.

    As for young pitchers, I see Chen and Francis as trade bait and Monty and Duffy, maybe Teaford up when SOS gets sent down, coming up before the break.

    by Jim Fetterolf on Mar 30, 2011 6:10 PM EDT reply actions  

    I See Brena

    Released or traded for very little in May. Then, Kendall will break down, Treanor will channel LaPoo at the plate, and GMDM will give up way too much for Varitek.

    I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

    by philofthenorth on Mar 30, 2011 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

    A few of my own

    I think the bullpen wil be pretty good all season, better than league average. Getz will flame out, Aviles to second, Moose to third by 7/1. Kila and Gordon hit .270 with some nice pop. Kila makes a run at 30 dingers. Melky gets traded mid-year and a nice comeback first half. The Frenchman hits .260 and generally plays well. Hosmer forces his way onto this team in September. Escobar is a defensive genius, hits .265. Royals play .500 ball all season.

    Really? No, not really.

    by johnny4 on Mar 30, 2011 7:18 PM EDT reply actions  

    I like your...

    …optimism. …I’d love to trade the Frenchman if he’s in the .260-.270 range. – TL

    "Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

    by timlacy on Mar 30, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

    LOL

    I remember thinking Crisp would have a .360 OBP all year, Jacobs could hit .270 and 30 homers Gordon will finally show signs and Meche will stay healthy

    Then I woke up

    by GobbleforCyoung on Mar 30, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I wasn't exactly pie in the sky...

    I ddn’t say Kila, Butler and Gordon all hit 40 dingers, Jeff Francis and Chenowith finish 1st and 2nd for Cy or anything. Jeez… Hope springs eternal. I think this team has more talent than any recent Royal teams. And I am an optimist. I used to be a pessimist, but then nobody wants to be around you.

    talk to me, Johnny...

    by johnny4 on Mar 30, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

    A .500 record for the Royals this year is a legitimately optimistic, "pie in the sky" prediction.

    This team being a .500 team would be a huge, huge shocker. The offense is mediocre AT BEST and the rotation is bad, perhaps pathetic. The defense could be better, but isn’t great…and teh bullpen has potential..but is a huge question mark. Could be decent, but could be godawful if the young arms aren’t ready to perform.

    In summary…there isn’t part of this team that you could even say is above average. The defense MIGHT be average. Maybe.

    Killing time until time kills me

    by EspeciallyK on Mar 31, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Okay

    The .500 record might be a little pie in the sky, the rest not so much. I think this team could be sorta of like the ‘Major League’ Cleveland Indians, in that ’these guys are so F-ing bad".

    Killing time until time kills me = pessimist

    talk to me, Johnny...

    by johnny4 on Mar 31, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Good ones.

    Very good observation about GMDM being agressive in trading Baird’s players and then again, last summer.

    My predictions:
    1) Gordon hits like Brad Hawpe at 27.
    2) Francis goes on the DL before he can be traded, but is still worth the money for the starts he gives the Royals.
    3) Getz shocks everyone and posts a season close to his Minor League line .286 .363 .380.
    4) Francouer mashes…but only LH pitching and potatoes.
    5) GMDM makes a trade for someone without ties to Atlanta or his past. Yeah, I know: some of these are pretty ‘out there’.

    If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

    by setupunchtag on Mar 30, 2011 7:49 PM EDT reply actions  

    You know for service time sake I can both Myer and Hosmer staying in the minor all year. And I hope Kyle Davis will out of Kansas City by June

    by L-Dub721 on Mar 30, 2011 9:24 PM EDT reply actions  

    At least someone else hates Davies as much as I do.

    Hating Zack Greinke irrationally since 2010.

    by royaldaddy on Mar 31, 2011 2:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

    My thoughts on the above....

    1) I think he does get traded, and if he can sustain some hitting consistency akin to his spring training, then we might be able to get something. Cain replaces him on the roster and we move on. Then again, why not also trade off Francoeur? He’s no long term solution for the team either. Cain/Dyson in CF sounds good to me. I think Gordon can stick in LF, so that leaves right, which can be Myers’ when he is ready. Meantime, you keep a veteran in there (pick one) or use a Hosmer out there some time?

    2) This is probably Davies last year as a Royal regardless, unless he proves himself to be something more than he has been, which could be done through more consistency. Can he be more consistent? Maybe, but if not, he’s not that hard to replace. Just about any method (internal, trade, FA, etc.) should do.

    3) I don’t think we will get rid of Pena this year unless someone in the minors is ready to go. I simply think Treanor’s here until Kendall gets back and is healthy. That said, moving on to point 4….

    4) I think Gordon’s put in the work this offseason to put him in the best position for a great year, and if you are the Royals, he’s a more key guy to your overall success than Kila, given depth at the 1B position organizationally. Maybe one of these guys can play RF and you can keep two. Otherwise, let the trading begin.

    5) I don’t see Myers as a possibility until 2012, but Hosmer is almost a given for a September call up. Ok, call me crazy, but if Kila kills the ball, do they give Hosmer some starts in RF or LF and use him in the OF maybe? Moose seems obvious since all you really have to do is move Betemit, which again seems like an obvious trade candidate. I say Monty comes up, moving Chen back to being the long man in the pen (I still don’t care for SOS).

    As far as what we trade for, I’d put a lefty reliever on the list because despite the craptastic nature of some of our trade chips (Getz), we should be able to swing that. Damned if I know what else we get. I’d say starting pitching, but I am highly skeptical we would get anything but something just as tepid as what we have now.

    I’d like to see the Royals go after a top rotation starter, but I realize that’s like asking someone to climb Everest. Realistically, worst starter goes, Chen goes to the pen and we sign another innings eater. I’m waiting for the rest of the lefty assault….

    by Cap Midnight on Mar 30, 2011 9:54 PM EDT reply actions  

    i want the highest ceiling guys we can get in return for all of our guys....

    even if it means a totally raw 18 year old in rookie ball….no more timmy smith manny pina shit

    Fire Everyone

    by billybeingbilly on Mar 30, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

    VIn Mazzaro!

    Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
    My Twitter feed.

    by Matt Klaassen on Mar 31, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Not bad

    I too would like to see Davies in a relief role. I don’t think Gordon will be better than Kila for one, and wouldn’t Gordon have more trade value if he some how has a great start to the season considering he was the 2nd pick and all?

    by GobbleforCyoung on Mar 30, 2011 9:55 PM EDT reply actions  

    If A-Gor Rakes

    And someone offers to overpay for him, trade him. I seriously doubt he will bring anything more than he is worth to us in that scenario, though, and I think we’d be foolish to trade him for anything less if he is succeeding. Give it another year and maybe someone will give up something really good for him.

    I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

    by philofthenorth on Mar 30, 2011 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Do you really think Moore doesn't care much about service time and years of team control?

    Frankly no mistake Moore could make would surprise me at this point. At the same time, I can’t say I expect him to make such a colossally horrible move as calling Hosmer up in 2011 and giving up essentially a full season of team control. I don’t think he’ll wait until June, but I doubt we’ll see Hosmer before Tax Day, 2012.

    I guess it all comes down to whether we think Moore is going to turn very impatient, or become very worried about his job. It’s hard to say. So far he hasn’t been so anxious that he’s been rushing prospects. We’ll see what happens.

    You may know me as NYRoyal.

    by Scott McKinney on Mar 31, 2011 1:23 AM EDT reply actions  

    I think this team could

    get off to a hot start ala 2003. Yeah, I think he could be that colossally stupid to bring Hosmer up for a late push.

    by sfeldkamp on Mar 31, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

    beer #1 woohoo....

    its gonna be a long day

    Fire Everyone

    by billybeingbilly on Mar 31, 2011 9:08 AM EDT reply actions  

    I agree with these

    I think Melky will actually play pretty well. I think Frenchy will be released in June.

    Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

    by RoyalsRetro on Mar 31, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

    Nice.

    If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

    by setupunchtag on Mar 31, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Cabrera and Frenchie: two reasons I actually miss Baird

    Winner: 2009 Nostradamus of Arrowhead Pride Award
    "I shall conquer untruth by truth" - Mahatma Gandhi
    "It's always easier to sell 'em some shit than it is to give 'em the truth" - Shel Silverstein, The Perfect High
    hi, Mo! 5 minutes!!!

    by upamtn on Mar 31, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions  

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