How Many Plate Appearances for Lorenzo Cain in 2011?
by Freneau on Mar 8, 2011 5:22 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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I started out this morning ready to write a "what can we expect from Lorenzo Cain in 2011?" post. However, that topic is actually pretty played out. In short, Cain hit .306/.348/.415 last season, thanks, as I'm obligated to point out, to a .370 BABIP. As much as citing BABIP is a cliche, it's just as much a cliche for people to say, "but this guy is different." It's not really a fascinating argument. In 2558 career minor league PAs, Cain has hit .291/.366/.416. Of course, the tools guy love him, in spite of these numbers. Again, not a terribly thrilling argument. Probably one that's worth having, but there's no point in drawing it out myself.
To me, the more interesting immediate question is how much Cain is going to play in 2011. Seemingly, half the Royal roster is a decent defensive CF who can't quite hit. Oh, and Melky Cabrera. Our guys who are sorta around:
- Cain
- Melky Cabrera
- Jarrod Dyson
- Gregor Blanco
- Mitch Maier
Although I'm not really a huge Cain fan, I'd much rather see him out there than Melky Cabrera. The Royals however supposedly promised Cabrera the starting CF job, because, well, why the hell not? Dyson was in the equation before the Cain trade, and Blanco and Maier seem to be after-thoughts, though in true Royals fashion, would be decent bets to be the best pure options in 2011.
But rounding back to Cain. How many PAs do you see him getting in 2011? The Royals should play Cain, who will be 25 in 2011, but it isn't unreasonable to believe he might also need some more AAA seasoning. I'm trying to be more positive (or objective) towards how this team makes decisions, but quite simply, roster management has not been a strength of the Moore regime. Playing young players hasn't been one either. This is where the supposedly harmless signings of Melky and Francoeur actually get in the way. Because the Royals always play those guys. Anyway, this is one of the worst written posts ever, and it needs to end. Let's talk Cain playing time...
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First, and somewhat off (this) topic question.
Does the fan confidence poll gauge our confidence for this year’s team or for the franchise as a whole?
Difficulties like these are why I sucked at True-False items on exams.
by RoyalCreole on Mar 8, 2011 8:53 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
350
I don’t think Yost or Moore are in love with Melky. I think Cain will end up being the starter in CF for most of the season.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
I keep thinking of last year's optimal/sub optimal solutions post you did...
one of the moore regime’s big problems is that they’ve not only brought in bad players, they’ve jsut done a terrible job at roster construction
Yes, I’m working on my third annual “worst moves possible” post. Melky and Cain are on it. FWIW, I think there’s a legitimate chance that Melky gets benched in May. Moore and Yost have both gone out of their way to say that Melky is starting because he was promised that and that he’s only guaranteed to start the season as the starter. Moore has also said that Melky wouldn’t have been signed if the Greinke trade happened earlier. Of course, the other side of the coin is if Melky plays at a decent level, they could keep him there all season and keep him for next year as well.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
So...will Moore learn his lesson this time?
Moore has also said that Melky wouldn’t have been signed if the Greinke trade happened earlier.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
xPF= (2 x ( :) + :D + >:D ) + :] + :{| – (.605 x ( :| + :/ + :P – :( – D: ))) x .16
Let's hope so...
I could see Cabrera becoming an Ankiel-type role. Play, the get traded, allowing Cain to enter the fold.
Your Friendly Neighborhood Weatherman...
Now taking bets: O-Royals vs. KC Royals. Have Omaha as 5-1 favorites.
I think the "Ankiel-type role" is very possible, in the sense that Melky will go on the DL for several months
because of a “lingering injury” that coincides with subpar performance.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 8, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Very Possible?
or our wildest dream?
Your Friendly Neighborhood Weatherman...
Now taking bets: O-Royals vs. KC Royals. Have Omaha as 5-1 favorites.
My wildest dreams involve Kendall not playing
But Melky working out like AnKiel is up there.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 8, 2011 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Is it accurate to think he'll get his playing time whether Melky plays well or not?
If not, then Yost/DMGM have met their promise and can move on. If well, DMGM trades him for . . . whatever, and Cain fills the spot.
I worry that last year will teach Moore the wrong lesson
namely, that he’s got to ride Melky for as long as he can and trade him like he did Poz, Guillen, and Dick
In other words, the above scenario perhaps should be:
If well, he plays until the trade deadline and we flip him. If not, he plays until the trade deadline and we flip him.
I wonder what we get for him, but that’s not the question you asked. And I suppose there will be world and time enough to mull this one over.
I just don't see who is going to want him
Cabrera doesn’t have a schtick like Pods or Ankiel did, the kind of calling card that bad GMs like Moore would look at: he’s not a fast guy with stealz and he’s not a freak athlete with power like Ankiel. he’s just a guy who’s kinda sorta ok if you don’t care
by Freneau on Mar 8, 2011 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think he'd have to genuinely be hitting well to get the Royals even a C- prospect
Otherwise, at most they’d just a piece of organizational filler for him.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
I am trying to be optimistic
because Pods and Ankiel did get somewhat decent returns, but it would be a gamble to expect that again
I keep waiting for the royals to turn the corner and actually bring their supposed player development genius to the big league level… which includes the midhandling of Kila, Gordon, etc.
we’ll see
Pods and Ankiel+Farnsworth,
so Melky+Tejeda would be similar?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
xPF= (2 x ( :) + :D + >:D ) + :] + :{| – (.605 x ( :| + :/ + :P – :( – D: ))) x .16
I was thinking that too
Hopefully Moore is willing to group Melky or Francoeur with someone like Tejeda and can maybe get one actual prospect. For all the talk about the “haul” the Royals got for Pods, Ankiel and Farnsy, those three players only got the Royals one actually good prospect (Collins) and he’s just a relief prospect at that.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
Melky has a couple of pluses over Ankiel.
1. He is making less.
2. He is under control for next season.
Go Royals!
I guess, but when the player really isn’t very good and is only bench-worthy at best, I don’t think his cheapness or team control is much of a draw, especially for a contender looking to round out their roster for a stretch run.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
At best he could rebound to his rookie numbers
Its not likely, but “at best” is better than “bench-worthy.”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I guess I was just thinking of the most optimistic reasonable projection for him this year and going forward.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Think package deal
They don’t have many vets this year period anyway, so I see them sending, say, Kila, Betemit and Melky (1B, Bench, OF/Bench) for a couple players.
Pods and Ankiel at least had a reputation for doing one or two things well
Pods had a reputation for good speed and defense. Ankiel had a reputation for good power and pretty good defense. These reputations were based on common scouting opinions of these players which of course many organizations saw through because they don’t evaluate major leaguers primarily on scouting opinion. But some still buy into that. Melky, as you pointed out, doesn’t have a reputation for doing even one thing particularly well. He’s a below average contributor who does everything at a “meh” level. Hard to flip a guy like that to a contender.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
"I can't believe my phone is not ringing off the hook for this guy!"
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
308
Starts the year in the minors, gets called up in May, is the every day CF by June.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 8, 2011 9:30 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Prediction
Cain will get plenty of ABs this year. Why? Because I think Melky will just flame out in CF. I am thinking the June 1 time frame. And, I will also predict that one Alex Gordon will also find himself on the bench and Maier gets some serious playing time by midseason. The more I look at Gordon, the less I believe he will ever get over this mental block he has at the major league level. It’s unfortunate, but some guys just can’t manifest their talents under the bright lights. He does have a ridiculous line this ST, though: .067 BA, .440 OBP.
by Disposable Orchestra on Mar 8, 2011 9:36 AM EST reply actions
300
Ditto RoyalsRetro…
but it won’t be because he forces Dayton’s hand. It will be because no one else is stepping up. Melky may be on the team longer than anyone wants…kinda like Guillen last year.
Unless Melky steps up cough, We’ll have to package him to get anything.
Is it wrong to hope for a team to end up with health issues so Melky looks more attractive?
Cain
Melky Cabrera
Jarrod Dyson
Gregor Blanco
Mitch Maier
Derrick Robnson
David Lough
And the actual likely CF the Royals make it to the Series with ? Brett Eibner! Come on down!
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
At least we don't have to find a trade partner for Melky
He’s making $1.25 million, so he can be cut, and the minor monetary loss is insignificant. This will happen before June 1.
"America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain
Gotta take issue with this a bit:
“Playing young players hasn’t been [a strength] either. This is where the supposedly harmless signings of Melky and Francoeur actually get in the way.”
We’ve been frustrated by the Royals playing older players like Gload, Kendall, Podsednik, Guillen, etc over younger players who might have upside, but there’s a key difference between that pattern and this year’s Melky and Francoeur signings. Melky and Francoeur are 26 and 27 years old respectively. They’re substantially the same age as Alex Gordon.
Their past performances aren’t good, but they’re young enough that it would be unfair to lump them in with the Gloads and Podsedniks of Royals seasons past. In a season where the Royals are going nowhere, it doesn’t hurt anything to give a couple months of playing time to two young players who have, to date, failed to live up to expectations. They’ll probably suck, but the only costs are sending Cain to AAA for a couple months (unclear that this would be bad in any way) and lost evaluation time for Mitch Maier and Gregor Blanco (I like Frenchy’s upside better than Maier’s).
What upside?
Neither one really has any upside. And Maier was already here and cheaper.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
xPF= (2 x ( :) + :D + >:D ) + :] + :{| – (.605 x ( :| + :/ + :P – :( – D: ))) x .16
According to Fangraphs
Francoeur recorded 4 WAR in 2007. For comparison, Alex Gordon, who is only a month younger than Francoeur, has recorded 4.4 WAR in his career. I understand than Frenchy has sucked 3 years in a row, but Gordon hasn’t done much either, and we hold some hope for him. Francoeur is a young player that has put up 2 great seasons and 4 crappy seasons in his career. With nothing to lose, we might as well roll the dice and hope we get something useful.
gotta go with 175
we’ll give Melky significantly more PAs than Cain
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That's a good poll question
Who gets more PA’s in 2012, Cain or Melky? I think Cain, but it’s hard to say.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
my head says yes, more Cain at bats
but the track record of the decision makers with this club cause me to fear that Melky will have more (I guess 400 Melky, 200 Cain, other at bats to random outfielders put in).
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
A key variable is how Moore feels about Cain
On this site, I’ve read many fans make a big deal about how Moore feels about players he’s acquired, as opposed to players who he inherited. I think this element is somewhat overrated, but I think there is something there. For the most part, the crappy vets who have played over younger players with some upside potential have been “his guys” playing over “inherited guys.” In this case, Cain and Melky are both his guys. And I think from Moore’s comments, he values Cain more highly than Melky, and he wouldn’t have even acquired Melky if Cain had already been acquired.
So which one of these two players does Moore like more and which does he think is more important to the future of the organization? Also, does he think it is important to play Melky a lot to pump up his value for a potential summer trade?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
I think the bar for Melky is pretty low.
If he would just stop falling on his face, he could easily win back Moore, which would put him in the lead for PAs compared to Cain. But despite the low bar, we haven’t seen that Melky actually can stop falling on his face.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 8, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Ideally.....
Cain gets off to a hot start @ Omaha, and Cabrera does @ KC as well. Cabrera gets traded to a team with need (struggling or injured player), and Cain can get 350-400 ABs this year.
My preference long term is our OF gets solidified enough with one of the CF guys (Cain) winning out, w/ Maier as the 4th OF. If the Royals can reach the point where Blanco and Dyson aren’t good enough to win a spot on the 25-man roster, then it may mean we’ve finally turned the corner at the MLB level.
As a side note, I’d love to see Moose & Cain called up together. Maybe take some pressure/spotlight off them individually as the “first” part of the process finally arriving…
200
I have no confidence in this decision being made in anything close to the correct way. It’s like the post about Kendall a couple weeks ago about it being right to hope for an injury of some kind. I hope Melky breaks his pelvis doing his best Jim Edmonds on doughnuts impression.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Mar 8, 2011 12:12 PM EST reply actions
Royals Outfield - 2014 World Series
Wil Myers
Bubba Starling
Brett Eibner
….discuss
by Disposable Orchestra on Mar 8, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions
Sounds like fun
How many games do the Royals win the WS in?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
2...THAT good!
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Mar 8, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That'd be best case scenario for all 3 of those guys...
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
xPF= (2 x ( :) + :D + >:D ) + :] + :{| – (.605 x ( :| + :/ + :P – :( – D: ))) x .16
or the worst case scenario for the royals
(3 “Shane Costa”s)
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 8, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Cain and Gordon will be traded for Pujols
Who will move to second base.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Mar 8, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Starling will be 22 then
He’s considered a bit raw – hard to see him as a MLB regular by then.
I say Jeff Franceour
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I was going to say "Critical spirit", but then
Francoeur winked at you and cleansed your sins.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 8, 2011 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Two sided coin
On the one hand you have the Royals largely inexperienced starting pitching. Yeah Francis and Davies have been consistent starters for a bit now, and Chen has experience there as well. The question is simply how many runs will above average defense in center save the Royals.
If you go by the scouts, Cain’s range is the best in center. The Royals should field their best defensive squad, up the middle. That discounts Kendoll and the limited Getz we’ve seen.
If Moustakas makes the team, which he might, Aviles at 2nd everyday is more exciting than Getz. It also allows Cain to play everyday, which is something the Royals should accelerate.
I have no problem with Maier and Cabrera getting their at bats, but Cain, Gordon and French should receive the most AB’s in 2011, in the OF.
Think, what can we do every day to give our pitchers the best possible chance to win.
Pretty sure this doesn't include playing Frenchy every day.
Think, what can we do every day to give our pitchers the best possible chance to win.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
xPF= (2 x ( :) + :D + >:D ) + :] + :{| – (.605 x ( :| + :/ + :P – :( – D: ))) x .16
Think, what can we do every day to give our pitchers the best possible chance to win.
Put them all on the bench and acquire some much better players to actually pitch the games.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 8, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much........in summary
Melky is trade bait for before or by the deadline. Throw in Betemit and Ka’aihue in there and that’s what we’re trying to trade for prospects basically this year.
Frenchy is here until Myers is ready, which should be some time in 2012.
Gordon stays out there provided he is productive. It’s possible we go out and get a right-handed hitting OF, but for that, you could end up with Frenchy and Gordon timesharing, with the rest of the cast filling in for injuries and later in games.
The best range in CF would be Dyson
Better range than Cain and probably most everyone else on Earth. Cain is probably 2nd best though.
by moregritplease on Mar 9, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
400+
I think Melky (rightly) and Gordon (wrongly) will be on pretty short leashes this year. If either struggle for the first4-6 weeks, they’ll get bumped to the bench (Melky) or traded for beans (Gordon). Plus I think that’s all they need to game Cain’s clock for FA eligibility, which they may feel is warranted for a plus defender with a hoped-for consistent .760+ OPS and belief he’ll develop more power (can’t say that about Dyson or Robinson).
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 8, 2011 6:00 PM EST reply actions
it would not stun me if
Gordon is drawing walks due to the approach he figured out with Seitzer, then we decide to jerk him around for doing what he was told to do. Seems like something this org would do
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Sponsor, 2011 Royals Alumni Fantasy Camp/Royals 5th Starter Star Search
Should a team have more than one hitting coach?
Maybe I’ll fanshot it.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 9, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
well, apparently Nebraska is going to have more than one offensive line coach
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
250
Just because trades don’t really happen very often before June, and mostly occur in July. And I’m predicting Melky plays just well enough that the Royals have to keep him in the lineup.
The real injustice with all of this
is what it does to our AAA team.
The ML outfield is pretty much set already, at least for the start of the year. We’ll have Frenchy in right, Melky in center, Gordon in left, and Maier and Blanco as backups. I doubt we’re going to carry six outfielders.
That leaves a whole lot of outfielders in the minors who need seasoning at the top levels. Cain will be the AAA CF for a while, at least, pushing the defensively comparable Derrick Robinson to LF, with Lough in RF. We could put Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson at LF and CF in AA, but they’re both over 25, and need to face AAA pitching if possible.
What do we do if one or more of these guys really breaks out? We can promote Cain easily enough, but are we going to get rid of Gordon or Frenchy if Lough or Robinson proves that he’s legitimate? No, we’ll just let the prospect languish in the minors, just like Kila.
This is why, when you have a perfectly serviceable Mitch Maier lying around, guys like Melky Cabrera just don’t make any damn sense.
by moregritplease on Mar 9, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Yes. Times many.
This is why, when you have a perfectly serviceable Mitch Maier lying around, guys like Melky Cabrera just don’t make any damn sense.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Got to this thread very late
If Cain can come close to his minor league numbers—say, .285/.355/.405—and play average or better center field, he’s a contributor. If he still has upside, even better. Melky’s going to make the team, but let’s hope he’s the fourth OF, plays horribly, and gets cut in June. Blanco would make a good fourth OF when Melky’s gone, especially if he can keep his OBP north of .350. And Maier is a dependable below-average but slightly above-replacement guy.
"America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain
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