Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances? Still Low

Since we already know the pitching won’t be good (although how bad, of course, is a factor). But the encouraging thing is that the offense is continuing the theme of the Spring and scoring — and they’ll need it. If the Royals can stay something north of 5.0 runs/game, they’ll be able to compensate for some of the poor starts from the rotation.

And yes, that would mean that: 1) Gordon stays the course as a good hitter, something above .800 OPS, 2) Betemit hits something like last year and gets on pace for a full season’s worth of plate appearances, 3) Getz isn’t horrible, 4) Either Aviles or Kila find a way to offensive competence

Lots of ifs…but not impossible, methinks.

I really don’t think KC has the pitching to stay in the mix once summer hits. But it’d be fun if the Royals beat the odds and finish closer to .500 than the awful team they were predicted to be.

which has been our MO in the past.

in other news, the Royals lead the American League in walks, with 39.

TREANOR!

Let’s just look at the other teams in the division:
Chicago: was my pick to win the division and they still are. But are they 100x better than the Royals? If they played it out 200 times, they win 108 times and the Royals win once. That seems a bit drastic to me. Frickin’ Buerlhle (sp?) and most of their pitching looks old or hurt or both. And their bully isn’t very good. Adam Dunn and co are gonna hit a ton of homers especially at that ballpark. Again, my pick to win the division, but just I don’t think they are the 27 Yankees and the Royals are the well, the Royals.

Detroit: I don’t think they are very good. Ignore the huge payroll. They have Miggy who I think might be the best hitter in the game and Vmart. Mags or Boesh hitting 3rd doesn’t scare me at all. Porcello is basically Luke Hochevar. Verlander is very durable and good. And their bullpen has some live arms, but they never seem to be healthy. I look at them as being a near 500 team.

Minnesota: I’ve watched this team for years and can’t figure out how they win. I don’t think their starting pitching is above average, or their bullpen. And their hitters don’t have any power. One of these days, teams are gonna figure out that their starting pitchers are gonna throw 85 down the middle-you should swing. Maybe that day is this year.

Cleveland: They have won 7 straight w/o getting much from their best player (Choo) Glad I drafted Pujols and Choo 1-2. I really don’t have much to add from them. I don’t know any of their pitchers but Carmona who had 1 bad start and 1 good start.
I thought they would be worse than KC, but according to my math they have a 12% chance at the division vs KC’s .5%. Again, seems like a wide gap between two fairly equal squads. I know they have two relievers named Perez.

KC: Best case scenerio that doesn’t involve Butler hitting 400 or Gordon hitting 40 bombs:
Ok, Francis stays healthy all year and is basically a good #2 guy. Hochevar has more good games than bad- and is basically a solid #3. Chen stays consistent and eats up a bunch of innings. They move Davies to the bullpen where he becomes a lights out set up man for Soria. They stretch out Crow and make him the 5th starter by the 2nd half and he does pretty decent in that role. Or much better than Davies. Montgomery or someone else tears up minor leagues comes up to the majors and is a force. Something like a 8-2 2nd half record with a 3 ERA. So far, so good.

Betemit proves that all he needed was regular playing time and he mashes and plays good enough defense to play 3rd. Aviles needed that kick in the rear, wakes up, starts to lay off that low and outside pitch and pushes Getz to the bench. Butler doesn’t hit 20 homers, but mashes 50 doubles to go along with his 300/400 avg and ob%
Gordon hits 280/350 with 25 homers. Cain lights up AAA and forces Melky or Frenchy out and then hits just enough at the big level- but really frustrates other teams on the basepaths. Escobar plays superb defense at SS all season. Some say the best they’ve seen since Ozzie in a Padre uniform. But Jeter wins the gold glove. Oh, and Kendall never comes back.
I give them a much better chance than .5%.
I am thinking 1-2% for sure.

or 15-5, what then? Even if the SP is at best sucktastic, the offense continutes to hit and score runs, and get on base, do their chances increase? Does the mindset change about this years team?

I’m not saying this team will get to 15-5, just asking what if?

That there’s no game tonight. Pisser.

Not that I really would feel comfortable trying to critique all of the formulas that they put into PECOTA, but their numbers have been kind of… “off” for a little while now, or at least that is how I feel. Maybe the White Sox really do have an over 50% chance of winning the division, but that just doesn’t sound quite right to me.

how we do against minnesota coming up…we have been getting a lot of walks, but as we all know, their pitchers come right after you and they have spanked us around pretty good of late.

if we can produce runs against minnesota, i’m not going to say we’re going to be over .500 or anything, but it will be a good sign that we can at least be competitive most of the year.

Enjoy it. I am. But don’t let a short term streak affect what you think. The Royals won 10 out of 13 once last year. There was actually a 54 game stretch (1/3 of the season) where they were 29-25. They famously started 18-11 2 years ago, causing Dayton Moore to believe that the 47-86 that followed was a 133 game aberration.

This is a team with a $36 million payroll. A team that has 5 starters who were probably not in the top 100 on paper a month ago. A team with question marks offensively at nearly every position (except Billy). A team that lost it’s best starter and most consistent offense/defense combined player from a year ago. The future is coming, but it is not here yet. They have mortgaged this year to help buy that future.

On the positive side, they quietly upgraded their fielding and their bullpen. They seem to have a positive attitude as a team. Whatever you think of Yost’s in game moves, he seems to have the managerial ability to get his team to buy in.

I don’t revise my pre season prediction until the end of April, and it only changes one or two games then. Talk to me on Memorial Day. Say I told you so at the end of July.

I am excited to see the team playing well, and I love seeing a winning record in the standings. I am excited for the future, but any 2011 vintage kool aid will remain untapped.