Trying To Make Heads or Tails of the Bullpen

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 20, 2011 10:19 AM EDT

It seemed like the bullpen was a strong point for the Royals in the first few games, but it has not performed as well recently. Here is a look at how the bullpen has performed in the last 7 days compared to the games before that. (I had to look at the last 7 days because I could only find one place that split out starters and relievers by date and they only did by the last 7, 14, and 30 days.)

First, here is a look at some stats:

Dates	IP	BB %	BB/9	K%	K/9	R/9	WHIP	K/BB	LOB%
3/31 to 4/12	40	7.5%	2.9	13.9%	5.4	3.38	1.55	1.85	75.8%
4/13 to 4/19	18.7	16.7%	7.2	20.0%	8.7	5.29	1.76	1.20	67.6%

The two number that really jump out to me is the change in walk and strikeout rates. The number of strikeouts has gone from 5.4 K/9 to 8.7 K/9 or and increase 3.3 K/9. I would generally he happy if the teams BB/9 didn't jump 4.3 BB/9 (2.9 BB/9 to 7.2 BB/9). It is nice to see the bullpen striking out one batter per inning, but when you walking a almost one batter also, the results won't be good. The K/BB ratio over the last seven days for the bullpen has 1.2 K/BB. Heck, Kyle Davies (2.00 K/BB) and Sean O'Sullivan (1.67 K/BB) have put up better ratios this season.

The increase in walk rate has contributed to the bullpen allowing almost 2 more runs per 9 innings (3.38 R/9 to 5.29 R/9) in the last 7 days then they did early on in the season. Another factor that helped to lead to lower runs allowed earlier on was that the strand rate was 75% and has since dropped to 67%.

The bullpen is always going to seem like it is struggling if it continues to put up a K/BB of 1.2. Our bullpen last season was at least able to put up a K/BB of 1.88. Until K/BB begins to approach 2, there is going to be many more nail biters like last night.

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Comments

Out of curiosity,

What was the bullpen K/BB in the infamous 2009 season?

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 20, 2011 10:28 AM EDT reply actions

1.70

http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&lg=all&stats=rel&type=1&season=2009&month=0&season1=2009

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 20, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Makes sense. Thanks.

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 20, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

All I know

is that there isn’t anyone in the pen who has control of their breaking stuff right now. That needs to change.

by SCKSChief on Apr 20, 2011 10:35 AM EDT reply actions

I wonder if the difference in BB and K rates

has to do with the umpires they’ve been facing lately. It seems like the strike zones have been smaller in the last week or so, as compared to the first couple weeks.

It also seems like certain guys (especially Soria) are having a REALLY tough time with their grips due to the colder temperatures. Crow hasn’t seemed to have been bothered by it as much simply because he doesn’t through much (if any) breaking stuff.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2011 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

+1

The umpires have been brutal. Sure you have to deal with them from time to time, but I think that has skewed the SSS.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 20, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder how much of this lack of control can be blamed on the cold weather?

It seems to me that the curve ball would be the first to go bad if your hands and fingers are cold.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Apr 20, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

My guess is a couple of things...

Teams early on had trouble against the younger relievers…maybe they are finding success by letting the pitchers get themselves into trouble.

It’s been colder than AZ…something that the bullpen needs to compensate for.

Higher work loads than initially expected…less arms available for usage (Adcock and Texeria barely used, Collins, Crow, Jeffers used alot).

The real question is when do we worry the bullpen isn’t coming back to life?"

I'm ellipsis crazy...apologies in advance.

by JMGesling on Apr 20, 2011 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

Would be worth seeing...

stats on how many swings per at bat during the same time frame.

I'm ellipsis crazy...apologies in advance.

by JMGesling on Apr 20, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't have access to the numbers for to get the exact early numbers

6.4% swing and miss in the last 7 days
6.7% for the entire season.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 20, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

so do you bring up another arm and send one of the extra position players down

for a 13 man pitcher squad?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Apr 20, 2011 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

With the way they're using (or NOT using) Maier

Then I don’t see why not. Although he’s out of options, I believe.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Maier is wasting away....

What can we do?

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 1:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

How about...

We just call up a pitcher we feel comfortable using in most situations? Or maybe use more than 4 relief pitchers. Adcock really is just wasting away… either work out a deal and send him down or just send him back from whence he came.

Coleman would be the simple solution.

by Cwide on Apr 20, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

or use him for an inning or two

He doesn’t have to just pitch in long relief settings.

I'm ellipsis crazy...apologies in advance.

by JMGesling on Apr 20, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

If they don't want to kick anybody off the 40 man roster

There’s always Holland. How is he looking?

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 20, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Call up Coleman

Option Teixeira to AAA
Place Jason Kendall on the 60 day DL retroactive to March 30. (if they really think Kendoll is coming back in May, then you can DFA Jesse Chavez or Kevin Pucetas)

Easy peasy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 20, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Retro - love the logic BUT

Do you think that would actually happen? I hope so

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 1:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Of course, we most likely have to account for Tejada's return as well.

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 20, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I blame Obama ...

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 11:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Those pesky White Sox fans

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 20, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Annoying just like AJ Persinskey's personality/face

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 12:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I blame the cold weather

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I blame the gas prices

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 11:58 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I love being relevant for a change no matter whom I blame

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 20, 2011 11:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Schizophrenic is what they are

Our bullpen inhabitants, I mean. Not those Mas Cervezas characters.

by LaFLamme on Apr 20, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

I question the timing

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Apr 20, 2011 12:54 PM EDT reply actions

The bullpen is like a box of chocolate

You jes’ don’ know what you gon’ git.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Apr 20, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

Thank you, Forrest

by SCKSChief on Apr 20, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

When half of your bullpen is rookies, inconsistency doesn't surprise me

I agree that Adcock could be used in other situations beyond being 3+ runs behind. That hasn’t happened much this year but it will. Yost hasn’t called me on this one FWIW.

Holland and/or Coleman could easily do what Texeira is doing. Why is Pucetas on the 40 man roster? Are the Royals really serious about Kendall coming back this season?

by daveyork on Apr 20, 2011 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

They are young

There is going to be some ups and downs. I still say the bullpen is going to be an improvement just from talent level. I have seen a couple of instances lately where I thought our guys were getting squeezed. At least one of those was with an umpire that has a history of being a jackass to young pitchers.

Use Adcock or send him back. Our starters as a whole don’t go deep enough to have someone you won’t use out there. These guys (Collins, Jeffress, Crow-even Soria has appeared alot) arms are going to fall off.

Someone mentioned Maier- I am not concerned with Mitch’s use. We know what he is, he is not going to change. The one that pisses me off is Dyson. This guy needs to be playing in AAA everyday. We need to see whether his offense can develop. With the defense and the speed he could be an everyday center fielder here with more seasoning. I know he is fast. If you want a designated runner, bring up Blanco. If not bring up someone at another position and use Maier more. Then Dyson will get regular at bats and be prepared to take over in center when they deal Melky in July.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Apr 20, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

I think Dyson is what he is

He can be a nice useful guy off the bench but theres nothing to indicate he’ll be able to hit for any kind of power. And he’s not young – he’ll be 26 in August. Not likely he’ll suddenly turn it on and hit for power. He’s a nice 4th/5th OF/pinch runner and he’d better get used to it because that’s how he’ll make Major League money.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 20, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I know Dyson will probably be a 4th OF after this year

in my zeal, I probably overstated a bit. I know that the Royals have all their eggs in the Cain basket for CF. But Dyson’s defense is already there, his speed is already there. He will never hit for power, but still needs AB’s at 25 so that he can get on base enough to use his speed. He needs to play the field at 25 to keep his D sharp.

Let Maier sit. Let Blanco come up and sit. Send Dyson down and get him AB’s. He will be here when Mitch and Gregor are gone, and in a couple of years we might have enough offense that we could have an a center fielder with world class defense and speed but no power. As long as he can get an OK OBP.

Whether as a sub or not, Jarrod Dyson is part of the future. Mitch and Gregor? Well they are just not.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Apr 20, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't really disagree

I just don’t think it matters that much. Dyson is what he is and while it might be nice for his development, I think his development is over and using him for the gimmick that he is, is probably what he should get used to.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 20, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't really care about Maier's "development"

He’s old (i.e. no longer a “prospect”), and he’s got a 99% chance of being non-tendered after this season. I just don’t think it makes any sense having him sit on an MLB bench so much. Play him more often or use the roster spot for another reliever. If something happens to one of the OF’s, play Dyson, or worst-case scenario, call up Blanco.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Maier And Blanco

Despite being both LHB’s, profile as a decent CF platoon, with Mitch facing the LHP’s. Of course, Cabbie, Cain and Dyson make this unnecessary, just a FWIW.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 20, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I blame Blake Wood

In all honesty, the bullpen pitched ridiculously wicked good for the first few series. There is no way that we could expect them to pitch like that for the entire season.

And Todd Haley said, "Let there be wins," and there were wins;
And Todd Haley saw the wins, and it was good.

by NaturalsLight on Apr 20, 2011 2:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

First couple weeks probably a bit lucky

One concern is that even during those first couple weeks when the bullpen was pitching well, I feel like they were getting pretty lucky (I seem to recall several outfield putouts – not sure if that’s already included in the strand rate?). If you look at the numbers Jeff posted, even during those first couple weeks, the bullpen’s WHIP was 1.55, which seems awfully high. In 2010, the league average WHIP for all innings pitched was 1.347, and that includes starters, who typically have higher WHIP’s than relievers.

by HarryL on Apr 20, 2011 3:19 PM EDT reply actions

inflation of stats

is it possible that the k/9 and bb/9 have increased so dramatically because were looking at two different sample sizes? after watching the last weeks worth of games nobody would disagree that the bullpen has struggled but the first group of stats cited has double the innings the second group does. a week from now the stats could be less drastically different after they’ve pitched a similar number of innings

by mmiller9 on Apr 20, 2011 6:51 PM EDT reply actions