Is it possible Jeff Francoeur doesn't suck?
Royals fans love to hate Jeff Francoeur.
I must admit, despite having defended the signing (or more accurately, condemned the doomsday reaction of the fans), I wasn't thrilled by the addition, but is it possible he doesn't suck as bad as everyone thought?
(Very) early results are certainly positive.
Now, I must put out the disclaimer that even if Francoeur has an all-star caliber season, that doesn't mean his signing was necessarily advisable at the time, just as a "good" signing that turns out to have poor results wasn't necessarily bad.
However, no matter what you can say about Francoeur plate discipline or leadership or past abysmal numbers, you can't argue with what he's done so far.
.325/.370/.566 with an OPS+ of 162.
Now nobody -- probably not Dayton Moore or even Jeff Francoeur himself -- expects these numbers to continue over a full season, and some have correctly pointed out that he started off well last season too, but these hits and homers and RBI still count no matter what he does for the rest of the year. With every passing day, it gets that much harder to tank his numbers just like it get's that much harder for blogger-mancrush Kila Ka'aihue to get his numbers up to respectability.
Frenchy is fourth in the majors in RBI, which is an admittedly flawed statistic, but runs win baseball games and no matter how flawed it is, being 4th in the majors in RBI is never a bad thing.
Here's the real kicker: He's on pace for a whopping 54 walks -- which would shatter his career high of 42 -- and is striking out once every 6.6 plate appearances, compared to his career total of 1 K for ever 5.7 PA.
These are not "good" numbers, and obviously represent a very small sample size, but they certainly seem to support the talking point that Jeff Francoeur is willing to adjust his approach at the plate, and that adjustment appears to be producing better results. *insert Kevin Seitzer plug*
So do you still regret the signing at this point? If so, at one point would you begrudgingly admit it worked out OK?
Look at it this way, if the Royals signed a healthy 27 year-old former first round pick for a meager $2.5 million and 21 games into the season that player was putting up the numbers that Jeff Francoeur is putting up, but his name was Bill Johnson and he wasn't a former Brave, would bloggers still be complaining about how much he sucked? What if he was just regular, run-of-the-mill free-swinging player that wasn't called "The Natural" by SI?
The reality is, we need him right now.
Only two teams in the majors have scored more runs than the Kansas City Royals (I'll pause while you ponder that statistic), and if Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are going to continue to be productive, they need someone batting behind them that teams at least have to respect, and right now Jeff Francoeur certainly fits the bill.
Did I think he would be even half this good? Hell no. Do I think he will be hitting .325 come September? Probably not. But I'm happy to ride this train while it lasts.
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No.
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
More in depth analysis here.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 25, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
No
He’s pretty good as the lesser part of a platoon. That’s it. As a full-time player, he’s Mitch Maier-lite. He’s had a good start, but don’t expect it to last.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
The "Mitch Maier-lite" tag is flatly wrong
Fangraph’s rest of season projection for Maier is a .308 wOBA. Frenchy’s is .324. Maier gets played in CF some, but he’s been below average there while Francoeur has been above average in RF. If Maier is a better defender, it certainly doesn’t make up the difference in offensive value.
Ok, using the last few years...
Player A wOBA:
.286
.313
.295
Player B wOBA:
.275
.304
.314
Which one is Maier and which one is Franceour?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Apr 25, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
ZiPS looks at all the stats, not just those that support a given case
And it clearly projects that Frenchy is the better hitter at this time. Remember that Francoeur is 2 years younger than Maier and is still potentially improving while Maier’s age suggests he’ll begin to tail off.
Still, I had no idea Maier is as old as he is.
I already thought Francoeuer certainly has higher upside than Mitch, so that makes my choice clear.
Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.
by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 25, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Not trying to support a case
just showing the “Maier-lite” isn’t as crazy you made it out to be.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Mitch Maier can sometimes hit right-handed pitching
Frenchy cannot (see below)
Nothing is fucked here, Dude.
Is it not possible for a player to adjust his approach and get better results? Bruce Chen had a few spotty good years and has turned his career around at 33. Obviously, pitchers are a different bird, but I’m not saying Frenchy = Albert Pujols, just that maybe he’s evolved into a productive player that, especially for this team this year can be a helpful addition. The reality is that pretty much no matter what he’s gone this offseason if not before, so I’m not saying he’s the future of the franchise or something, just that he’s playing better than expected and at some point, if it continues, those people who had a coronary over his signing are going to have to admit that it worked out.
If he gets traded for a useful player, yes. Or if it does work out at the end of the season, yes.
just that he’s playing better than expected and at some point, if it continues, those people who had a coronary over his signing are going to have to admit that it worked out.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Sure, it's possible
The updated ZiPS projection has Francoeur at a .336 wOBA for the year which is roughly league average and well above replacement level. UZR has also loved Frenchy’s defense so far which might be a statistical fluke, but it also squares with the idea that Frenchy has improved his speed with an off-season regimen that focused on losing weight and improving explosiveness rather than maximizing strength. He probably won’t keep this pace in UZR, but I’d expect him to be above average.
The biggest caveat with Francoeur’s hot start is that it’s come entirely on his performance against lefties, and he’s always hit lefties well. Against lefties, he’s hitting .462/.483/1.000, but against righties, he’s at .263/.317/.368. That big of a split can’t continue all season, and since his numbers against righties is more in line with expectations, people expect that his numbers against lefties will fall while his numbers against righties will be more or less stable. We’ll see. I certainly expect the numbers against LHP to drop off, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers against RHP picked up a tick as well.
Overall, I expect his season numbers to be pretty positive for a player on a $3M contract. He doesn’t have to be awesome to be worth his salary.
I have to hand it to Dayton on this one.
According to Fangraphs, Frenchy has 1 WAR. DM already has surplus value from this deal. I realize he could be so terrible that his fWAR value declines over the rest of the season, but this looks like a great deal so far. And dare I say it, but is it any surprise to most of us that a player might have a career season (or at least resurgence) in his age 27 season?
I guess the real question is, does Frenchy have a better season than DDJ? We already know we traded DDJ for nothing but crap, just so we could sign Frenchy. So I guess the DDJ trade is the real loss here.
He seemingly does this every year
The past couple years have seen a spate of April/May Francoeur articles of the theme “he’s back!” only to see him swoon in the summer months and go back to his hacktastic skills.
If he is still productive in July, I’ll give DM credit – I’ve certainly given him credit on moves that have panned out that I criticized before.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
He hasn't changed much of anything
And he never really has…he’s pretty much always hacktastic, and the only wildly varying factor in how well he does lies in his BABIP.
You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.
Francouer's biggest contribution has been in the clubhouse
He’s brought a winning/positive attitude and is known for being a great teammate. It doesn’t show up in the boxscore but it shows up in the boxscore if you know what I mean.
He should have been more of a winner the last week in Texas.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Apr 25, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
That kind of thing is easily dismissed here since it's unquantifiable
But it’s not completely meaningless.
Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.
by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 25, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Even with my comment above,
I agree. But I think it gets amazingly overplayed in almost every instance.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
yes....if he doesnt embarrass himself....
his presence by all accounts is worth something…and if he’s as great of a guy and teammate as EVERYONE says he is, then he’s not a terrible guy to have around to show the young guys the ropes. i just hope that dayton doesnt feel that presence is worth 3/20
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Apr 25, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
everyone except those who heard him whine about playing time
when he was playing horribly in Atlanta and New York.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 25, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
and there's that....
but we all know that wont be a problem while in this organization…so its a moot point
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Apr 25, 2011 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
T the P
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 27, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a few days old already, but
It’s possible Francoeur’s hitting is somewhat sustainable, as crazy as it sounds. He’d have to stay lucky to do it, but he’s done it over enough plate appearances before that we can’t just dismiss the possibility.
http://royalinexile.blogspot.com/2011/04/well-right-field-is-solvedright.html
You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.
Once he can hit right-handed pitching
I will concede that it’s sustainable. Until then …
Nothing is fucked here, Dude.
I don't look at splits
for players who I feel won’t end up being platooned…it’s a bit useless for me to worry about his numbers vs. RHP when I know that Yost is going to run him out there every day. So, I end up looking at the whole thing.
Besides, the 1200 PA’s in his career I was referring to wasn’t just against RHP…the BABIP I was talking about wasn’t from splits, so it included any flailings against righties, too.
It’d be freaky, but I think we could see him keep it up for a little while. Definitely shouldn’t count on it, and it shouldn’t be seen as “Francoeur has figured it out”, but I think he can put up a 2011 something like his rookie season.
You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.
by DanielSmith on Apr 25, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
And if I thought there was any chance Yost was going to do something about it, I’d be pointing and throwing excrement at it.
Besides, hitters doing much better against opposite-handed pitching isn’t exactly a new concept, you know.
You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.
How can you do an entire post on Frenchy
and fail to mention that he can’t hit right-handed pitching to save his life?
Here are his triple-slash splits vs left/right pitching so far in 2011:
vs LHP: .462/.483/1.000
vs RHP: .263/.317/.368
That’s got to be one of the most insanely huge splits in the league. It’s also reason #1 he will completely flame out this year.
This has pretty much been the story of Frenchy’s career, although not to this extreme:
Career vs LHP: .303/.347/.495
Career vs RHP: .256/.297(!)/.402
Nothing is fucked here, Dude.
BR WAR loves Frenchy's defense
He’d be a good platoon rightfielder/4th outfielder. He’s not going to keep hitting like this.
Yo confío en Jack.

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