Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances Dropping After Three-Game Losing Streak

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 1:45 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

After splitting a four-game series with the Indians and getting swept in Texas, the Royals season is looking less and less likely to produce a surprise division winner. Although the Royals are still just 1.5 games back of first, and in possession of a respectable 12-10 record, they now appear to be long shots to win the AL Central. As such, despite Kansas City's exciting and somewhat fortunate start, the Royals have already been caught by the Tigers in the standings.

Using the Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus, we can get a sense of how the division race is already shaping up, using both the information from the current season, as well as what we think we know about the underlying quality of the teams involved. For the Royals, that doesn't produce especially happy results.

	Current Record	Updated Projected Wins	Sim. Div. Titles%	Sim. WC %
Tigers	12-10	84	44.8%	1.7%
White Sox	8-14	81	22%	1.2%
Twins	9-12	80	18.2%	1.1%
Indians	13-8	79	15.3%	1.0%
Royals	12-10	70	0.7%	0.1%

As you can see, the clear favorite now appears to be the Tigers, who helped themselves greatly this weekend by sweeping the White Sox. Most human and computer predictions had the Twins, Tigers and White Sox as all being very close to one another heading into the season, with the Indians a step behind and the Royals a bigger step behind. If you hold that to be true, then these are the results you get, where the early struggles of the Twins and White Sox have made the Tigers big favorites.

The Royals didn't help themselves last week by going 2-5. However, if you want to make the argument that the Royals were underestimated heading into 2011, then you can talk yourself into some hope. If we make the true talent of the 2011 Royals to be comparable to Cleveland's for example, then the chances that the Royals make the playoffs jumps up considerably, up to something like 14-15%. Part of why BP's number is so low is that the remainder of the games are yet to be played, and according to their model, they are to be played by one of the very worst teams in the AL. Given that the lead the Royals have over the other teams in the division is small or nonexistent, it just doesn't add up to a path to success. We'll see if the Royals can change that.

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I like our odds

Call me crazy but it fits our culture

.......Just a beer drinking KC Chiefs & KC Royals fan.......
POWDER BLUE BOMBERS!!!!!

by Mas Cervezas on Apr 25, 2011 1:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Crazy

by kcsno56 on Apr 25, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I tend to agree....

only 14 wins between top and bottom….that’s than three games a month from here on out…that’s not a stretch when you see that we’ve gone into extra innings or our 9th to pull out quite a few wins this year.

The Royal Pork T....between inning snack of prized Royal Designated Hitters

by kd_in_kc on Apr 25, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Last week,

the Royals had a couple of bullpen meltdowns against good teams, so not sure I would get too worried over the results. Yost is still learning his people and his people are still learning their jobs, so I’m still more comfortable with 80 wins than 70. Texas is the AL champion and Cleveland seems a solid team. Adjustments will be made, Aviles appears to be hitting his way into the lineup at 2B, Kila managed to crush a 94 mph fastball, and Jeffress will either learn to throw strikes or he’ll go down to Omaha in two or three weeks with Holland or Teaford coming up.

by Jim Fetterolf on Apr 25, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

How are our projected chances that much slimmer than Cleveland's?

Do they think we have THAT much worse of a team than the Indians. I think most people would disagree. Especially since these are “on paper” rosters.

by KCTiger on Apr 25, 2011 2:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

that is a fair point

BP’s projection system was relatively high on the indians… it thought they’d be a 78 win team. if you look at cleveland’s lineup, I think there is a path there in which they could be a pretty good offense

of course, so could KC, is Butler and Gordon and Francoeur are all hitting around .350 and melky is at .320

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

My opinion

I don’t like these posts. I know there is novelty in looking at the odds, but personally, I think it’s stupid. And I mean that in the most respectful way possible. I do not mean to offend.

by hawkinscm87 on Apr 25, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Anything above good development this year is gravy, as far as I'm concerned.

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 25, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

well, there's usually 3-4 posts a day

so come back in a few hours

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

disagree

I have been periodically checking the odds for years now. It serves a very useful purpose: it puts the ups and downs typical of every team’s season into perspective.

Now, keep in mind what the projection uses: Royals were projected to be a .414 team this year. If one disagrees with the starting point projection – then naturally one would derive little benefit from consulting said odds.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Apr 25, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Silly - ness

As usual, lot’s of silly pessimism.

The Royals went INTO the AL Champs house, I didn’t expect them to win 2 of 3. They did do some good things in the series, but let’s face it, the Royals are not there yet.

I think as the season rolls on, the Royals will steal some of these series, hopefully against the Chisox and Twinks.

by Peterman700 on Apr 25, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

what exactly is pessimistic?

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, Will, why would you say something so pessimistic as:

the Royals are not there yet

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 25, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Sooo pessimistic

If we make the true talent of the 2011 Royals to be comparable to Cleveland’s for example, then the chances that the Royals make the playoffs jumps up considerably,

along with “We’ll see if the Royals can change that.”

That’s the scathing Will I know.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Apr 26, 2011 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions

I jst dont get the pessimism either!

Since 2004:

67-95
65-97
75-87
69-83
62-100
56-106
58-104

Really, I just dont see reason for negativity around here. Nothing to see here….

He's got tools, son!

by DaytonSucks on Apr 25, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

They were non-existent a month ago

And they are non-existent now. Nothing has really changed.

by kcbottom9th on Apr 25, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I don't get why people seem to be up in arms about this.

After these 20 games, I’d have to get crazy odds to even consider a bet on the Royals making the playoffs. Most of us that value our money would be in the same boat, these numbers back up that “intuition”

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Apr 25, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

the fact is, the royals are 12-10

which just isn’t anything special

the royals have had everything go right for them this season, and they have the same record as Detroit and are a game behind cleveland

people are still acting like the royals are 15-7 or something

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

the royals have not had everything go right

I’ve seen u say that a few times and I disagree. Kila has sucked, aviles has struggled until yesterday, alcides isn’t hitting, soria blew a 3 run lead with two outs in the ninth and the bullpen has had a few brutal outings.
Sure we have caught some breaks this year but its been far from “everything going right”. I don’t expect frenchy or o Sullivan to keep it up or to keep winning games in the bottom of the ninth, but I also don’t expect Kila to hit like tpj and soria to pitch like Ricky bottalico.

by LimaTime10 on Apr 25, 2011 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

at the very least, they've had the good breaks outnumber the bad

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

On the plus side

another good game or two and Escobar’s OPS will be over .500!

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 25, 2011 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

Yes!

At which point his next 5-6 bad ones will completely wipe that out…ugh, I really wish he could hit.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Apr 25, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't worry

even if he keeps hitting like this, if he’s the best defensove shortstop in history, he’ll be almost an average player.

…but seriously, he is almost certainly better than this. Still a bad offensive player, but even Yuni regressed to the mean. He’s got a good glove, although I wonder how conditioned by, uh, “the past” Royals fans raving about Escobar’s glove have been.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 25, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

it's the desire to believe

TPJ was the greatest def SS ever for the first three months he was around too

there’s also the Greinke trade factor.

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes...I don't even look for an improvement over his career numbers at this point

Just for him to get to them. At this point he’s looking Pena Jr.-esque at the plate.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Apr 25, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions

the fact that his numbers have gone down each year in the majors...

is fairly terrifying

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

He is currently about as close to an automatic out at the plate as it gets, short of being a pitcher. Just add 30 points to the batting average and throw a few doubles and an occasional triple in there, Eski.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Apr 25, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Getting caught up in the exact numbers

All it says is the Royals’ chances aren’t good…which is something we should all realize. As for the precise number, and translating it to “next to impossible”, I tend to shrug that off. Just about every team in the division has question marks of some sort.

I tend to think it’s possible the division just won’t have a dominant team, and the team(s) that ends up distinguishing itself will be the one(s) that hold their own outside the division, which to this point the Royals have done in posting a 6-5 record outside the AL Central.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Apr 25, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions

And regardless of what the numbers spit out

The Royals’ chances are low, but probably not as low as 0.7%.

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 25, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

you shouldn't argue with the number it spits out!

If you think the number is low, your argument is with the system’s projection of their relative strength.

The system is simply a mathematical tool – only as good as the initial projected winning percentage it starts with.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Apr 25, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I recognize that, using the model provided, 0.7% is a valid number

But such a model, by definition, can not account for variability or random chance; of occurrences such as other teams in the division becoming ravaged by injuries. My point is that while a projection might come up with such a number and it would be valid all other things being equal, all other things are not equal so the Royals’ realistic odds would be higher.

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 25, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

it is accounting for random variation

that’s how the royals are winning every once in awhile

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Here's what I'd like to see them add to their report:

A tool where you could input or adjust a team’s expected winning percentage, and then recalculate the odds.

For example, if you think the Royals talent level is really .475, or you think Hosmer, Montgomery, Duffy, and Moustakas would all be called up in July and all kick ass, so you wonder what if that happens, and the Royals are really a .500 team talent-wise, what would their odds be then?

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Apr 25, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed

the good thing is that, this year, we’ve got the indians… who have a similar record to the Royals right now, and are projected to be a mid to high 70s win team

it’s a convenient shortcut to have

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I think these posts are interesting and not stupid

If you should decide to keep updating them, then could you put the original projected wins in the chart, too? Thanks.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 25, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

BP's page design leaves a little to be desired

if you go on the current Playoff Odds Report, they’ve got the original projections in the first column. for the Royals, that is/was .414, which is a 67 win team

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

These projections aren't all that interesting

This system assumes the Royals are bad and then calculates the odds that a bad team will luck into a better record than good teams. The more interesting question is whether the Royals are good. If it turns out Gordon is for real, Escobar hits .270 with great defense, and Moustakas gets called up in June and rakes, the Royals will look like a much better team, and 0.7% won’t be relevant.

by kcdc1 on Apr 25, 2011 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

yes

if the team turns out to be good, then a projection that says they are bad will be irrelevant

by Freneau on Apr 25, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Are we really confident that Moose will come up and rake?

I’m definitely not that confident in it happening this year.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Apr 25, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

hosmer coming up and not struggling...im pretty confident in....

moose…not at all. He’ll hit homers….but will they come with a 270/290 line and below average defense?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Apr 25, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

My non-rational intution:

Moose will either be awesome this year, with a lot of home runs and a high BABIP due to low strikeouts, or be horrible with less home runs than expected (Kauffman is going to be harder to hit them in, no walks leading ot a low OBP because his BABIP drops, and horrible defense. And I also predict this will lead to a lot of people seeing him as another Heyward/Francoeur, and that whichever it is, it won’t really be reflected in his post-2011 MLB performances.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 25, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

If I were a Cleveland fan, I'd be a little ticked off

I know these projections have their inherent flaws, but despite being 13-8, they’re still projected well below the 8-14 White Sox. And it may well be a true projection, but at least let Cleveland bask in the early glow.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 25, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

after looking at the "Audit Standings", I see that a lot of that is based of the Pythag,

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php

Which is at least a little more tried-and-true than Playoff Predictor. Still would be annoyed as a Cleveland fan, though.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 25, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know if I would say they are predicted way below.

The Sox are 5.5 games behind. The final projections have them 2 games ahead. 7 games over 5 months is nothing. I mean most teams consider 7 to be potentially overcomeable in September, let alone over the course of the season.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on Apr 25, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Odds schmods

The geeks who crunch the numbers fail to factor in the magic that is our faith.

by LaFLamme on Apr 25, 2011 4:38 PM EDT reply actions

.7%

obviously doesnt account for the grit and fire in their bellies when grit master, Jason Kendall returns. Then playoff odds go to 100%. It is all but certain.

He's got tools, son!

by DaytonSucks on Apr 25, 2011 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

i appreciate the posts

and i do think that this team is better than people gave them credit for, but with a very low chance of winning the division, probably pretty close to zero…the starting pitching on this team is not good, and we really haven’t gotten much production outside of billy and alex.

still think 80 wins is the absolute ceiling for this team barring any callups, and that might get us 3rd place, which i would consider a successful season with what we should have coming down the pike.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Apr 25, 2011 11:29 PM EDT reply actions