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An Underrated Part of the Royal Winning Streak: The Starting Pitching

After Tuesday night's dramatic 7-6 victory over the White Sox, Denny Matthews said something to the effect of, "this winning streak has been all about the bullpen. You have a good bullpen, you win."

I'm not qualified to argue with the Hall of Fame Matthews, and in a broad sense I agree with him. The bullpen certainly has been very good this season. Good from day one. However, the starting pitching has, to a limited extent, played a part. Hear me out.

Tuesday Hochevar 6.0 IP, 4 ER
Sunday Chen 5.0 IP, 5 ER
Saturday Davies 5.1 IP, 4 ER
Friday Francis 7.0 IP, 1 ER

 

Now, to be sure, aside from the fluky Francis start these are all below average starts. At the very least, however, they all survived. There isn't a three inning appearance among them. Given that the Royals have won two 12 inning games during this streak, they've needed every last inning. Chen was bad on Sunday, but he did stand out there for five innings. The essence of what I'm getting at can be seen in the most recent game. Hochevar was blasted in the first inning on Tuesday, but he slogged through another five innings and kept the team in the game. By the end, the Royals were down to trying to get multiple innings out of Texeira. That's the definition of living on the edge.

Star-divide

I don't think the Royal starting rotation deserves a trophy. They've put the team behind and demanded near perfection from the bullpen. Every starter save Francis has an ugly ERA. Nevertheless, if they had been just 10% worse, the Royals might not have two or three of the wins that they currently own. They've survived. Kinda.

When it became clear that the Royal rotation was going to take its particular shape this off-season, just about everyone concluded that they would be among the worst rotations in the Major Leagues. And they still might. However, as Royals fans, we've seen bad rotations, and we've seen what just a single nightmare start can do to a pitching staff for the next three or four days. So far, we've avoided nightmares.

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You make a very good point
However, as Royals fans, we’ve seen bad rotations, and we’ve seen what just a single nightmare start can do to a pitching staff for the next three or four days. So far, we’ve avoided nightmares.

By laboring through some crummy starts, but at least eating some innings, the SP’s really have given us a chance to win.

I loathe David Glass

by RoyalJHWKR on Apr 6, 2011 3:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Our mediocre-SP-triumvirate (LH, KD, BC) are behaving exactly what we would expect from them. Anything better is a gift.

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Apr 6, 2011 3:24 AM EDT reply actions  

Actually, that's only what you would expect from Hochevar

Chen only gave up more runs/inning in 2 of his 23 starts last year.
Davies, in only 6 of his 32 starts.
Hochevar had 7 games out of 17 where pitched worse.

This is over-simplified, obviously, and Chen likely over-performed last year, but in many respects, not only did we win, we won in what will likely be (one of) their worst starts of the year.

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Apr 6, 2011 5:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm guessing this won't be far off from Chen's average

If Chen is in the rotation/on the team as late as the All-Star break, I’ll be mildly surprised.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Conditions At

The K sounded like the untimate nightmare for a fly ball junkballer. It could have been worse.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 6, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

This

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 6, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the other hand

Kauffman usually suppresses home runs.

I’m not denying the conditions had an effect.

I am saying that Bruce Chen kinda, well, isn’t good. And he will probably have some very similar starts to this weekend’s this season. Think HoRam 2009.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's looking like every game is going to have two halves

The first half belongs to the starter. It’s his job to pitch 5-6 innings and keep us within 2 or 3 runs. With this staff, it may not be too realistic to expect more than that. If someone has a better start than that, it’s just gravy.

The second half is where it actually becomes fun to watch, and the ball is turned over to the bullpen. These kids are good now and will get better as the season progresses. All of them have the perfect mentality for bullpen work. They’re not afraid of anybody, they pound the strike zone, and they’re already forming an identity. I’m not going to chalk this up to the beard/fauhawk combo, but it seems like all the guys out there already have a strong bond with one another. And how huge a confidence booster has this start been for them and the rest of the team? There are FOUR rookies in the pen right now, and rookies are notorious for falling prey to mental lapses and emotion. If the relievers had gone out there and gotten lit up the first few games, we’d have no wins and no hope.

Maybe I’ll start turning the game on an hour after it starts so I can just see the good part where our bullpen looks unstoppable and we come back and win…

by Soria's Unibrow on Apr 6, 2011 3:24 AM EDT reply actions  

The Twins are still supposedly shopping Kevin Slowey

who’s a good pitcher, isn’t making a fortune, and who has a couple more years under team control. He’d probably be the Röyals’ best starter if we got him.

"America is a nation without a distinct criminal class, with the possible exception of Congress." --Mark Twain

by Juancho on Apr 6, 2011 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

What would it take, do you think?

I’d be on board if the price was low enough.

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Apr 6, 2011 6:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno

he’d only be the best starter on the team.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Supposedly they want bullpen help

Not really sure I’d be willing to part with any of our young pen arms unless they want Tejeda or Texeira.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I assume

They’d want a reliever and a prospect, but who knows, the Twins love to do things the right way. Offer them Chris Getz and they’d probably get all excited.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sort of like trading Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett

for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris.

Well, I guess that’s more like tradinga 20 for a 1. Sorry.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Would love to see Dayton and Bill Smith in a trade showdown

Stoppable force vs. immovable object.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

or like trading a $1 bill for a $3 bill

if you know what i mean

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Apr 6, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hold on….is that optimism? Will’s account has been hacked! ;)

by seelztlb on Apr 6, 2011 8:04 AM EDT reply actions  

This Staff Is

Plainly a holding action. They’re performing well, considering. We’ll probably get at least 2 solid starters from our system in the near future, and Luke will probably be OK as a mid-rotation starter for the next 5 years. We’ll need to bring in starting pitching from outside, but the pen will probably come mostly from within. I think Butler and Soria should bring something good in trade next year.

I’m happier with this team than I have been since ’07 opening day.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 6, 2011 8:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Why do you want to trade Butler and Soria next year?

Butler can settle in at DH, and Soria is on a friendly contract. No need to trade them at the moment.

by Matt Hays on Apr 6, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I Think They're

Our most valuable, easiest to replace assets. We’re going to need MLB talent and/or more good prospects to keep the pipeline full. The draft can’t provide everything. Their good contracts are part of the reason they’re so valuable. I need to see Moore make some good moves at the MLB level.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 6, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I understand your point

I just don’t buy into it, atleast as of yet. I would like to see us have some stable success before we look at moving guys.

by Matt Hays on Apr 6, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

I think in a vacuum, it makes sense to trade Butler and Soria, but I worry a bit about what kind of message that sends when you’re trying to build an organization.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think with Soria, the message would be

“We are a smart organization.”

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Closers are made, not born. I think I’d be okay with Jeffress or Collins taking over closing duties right now.

by Soria's Unibrow on Apr 6, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

While I get a kick out of Jeffress, I'm not sold on him yet

I’d go with Collins or some sort of Collin/Tejeda platoon.

But yeah, that’s the idea.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

The message would be outright lies?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you mean "absolute lies."

Cf. “We have to improve our on-base percentage.”

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Will has really "unearthed" something here...

I always thought that Hochevar was a guy that really beat himself up and once he realized that if 1 run came in it wasn’t the end of the world, just keep slogging and get 5-7 IP for the game, then he would really come alive

I thought this was Greinke’s thing too…and look what he did…so we know for sure that Hochevar has some serious MLB level talent, I think it is just learning the mental toughness to realize that no game is won in the first inning…this is a big step for him…them coached better pound this start over his head

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Apr 6, 2011 8:38 AM EDT reply actions  

My two cents

Seems like he either doesn’t have an out pitch, or doesn’t have confidence in an out pitch. That out pitch is probably that sharp slider he has or a sinker. Maybe years of guys like Yuni and Aviles and Callaspo behind him have made him think he has to strike guys out rather than induce grounders.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is more or less what we've had to expect the last couple of years,

Greinke starts excepted. The most obvious difference is that the bullpen seemed far more unreliable then (especially in the summer of 2009, which must have been the nadir of relief pitching in Kansas City).

Monday is an awful way to spend 1/7th of your life.

by KeepItCopacetic on Apr 6, 2011 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Those are fair points, Will

Eating innings is indeed a significant part of the starter’s job. Still, the real rebuild can’t really begin until at least three of these starters are replaced.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Apr 6, 2011 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

When the Royals are leading the division at the end of May

despite the high ERAs of Chen, Mazzaro, and possibly Davies, I think we’ll see Montgomery and Duffy, as well as Moose.

That being said, I think there is a very small chance of that happening, though this hot start has already increased their projected wins by a couple. Maybe they do get to 70 wins this year. They’d only have to play .420 baseball the rest of the way, and Jeremy Jeffress is all about that!

Also, Alex Gordon has .3 batting WAR already. At this pace, Alex Gordon is a 9 WAR hitter (fielding isn’t included at FG yet). Somehow I doubt that keeps up, and I love Gordon.

And just imagine, had Gordon’s home run ball gone fair, the Royals would be 5-0 with 5 last at bat victories. 4 in a row is pretty ridiculous, 5 would be insane.

by AxDxMx on Apr 6, 2011 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Am I the only one that didn't know Jeremy Jeffress was African-American?

I was fully expecting a fat Bobby Jenks type pasty-white guy for some reason.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I read about

the bullpen mowhawks and they call his “Blackhawk”

by tiquanunderwear on Apr 6, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

wow, that could possibly offend two different minorities – tough to do with a single word

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Apr 6, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

I was excited to see his attitude after the game last night. He was so pumped up. This is the exciting young team we’ve been waiting for, and hopefully it’s only going to get better!

by AxDxMx on Apr 6, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

And apparently he gets way into every game, not just the ones he pitches in. I’m starting to really really like the guy. And Tim Collins. And Aaron Crow.

I was freaking pumped when I was able to download the new roster for MLB 11 The Show and saw they’d added perfect representations of all those guys. They even look like them, though Crow is lacking his beard.

by Soria's Unibrow on Apr 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

These young arms also seem pretty likeable. Tim Collins in particular, but Jeffress seems really excited just to be here.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought skinny

but yeah, didn’t we already discuss this?

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 6, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

great article in the book Freakonomics...

about a black guy named DeShawn Williams getting many more responses to his resume if he put Jake Williams as his name

I know some completely backwoods redneck folks with the last name similar to Jeremy Jeffress and totally thought the same thing with the drug problem and all…was expecting to see a Nascar driving looking dude

Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.

by PhattStairs on Apr 6, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did You Notice

Tyrell Reed’s name was listed as Tyler Reed on one national telecast? They must have thought it was a typo and “corrected” it.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 6, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

In regard to these walk-off wins

I’m very encouraged that none of our relievers have given up any runs in the ninth inning or later. At the moment, all these “walk-offs” are possible because the Royals have been playing all home games. When the road games come, the Royals can’t walk off with any victories, if they have the lead in the top of any inning, they still need to pitch in the bottom of it. From what I’m seeing, I like the odds that our bullpen can manage that.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Apr 6, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Its interesting

We have faced a ton of young relievers already this season – Jordan Walden, Michael Kohn, Chris Sale, Sergio Santos, Kevin Jepsen – all in their first or second year. And we have really rattled their cage. Meanwhile, our rookies are cool as cucumbers against much superior hitters.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Today's lineup already up

3B Aviles
CF Melky
LF Gordon
DH Butler
1B Kila
RF Frenchy
SS Escobar
C Pena
2B Getz

P Francis

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 6, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm actually a little surprised

that Aviles wasn’t benched. I like that Ned is sticking with a lineup so far.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 6, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

5 Inning Quality start

I would note that had Hoch, Davies, then Hoch again stayed in the dugout for the sixth innings that both ERA and the number of innings needed to win would have been quite a bit lower. I was at the Davies start and it was obvious in the 4th and 5th innings that he was wobbling, then the wheels fell of in the 6th. Yost has enough bullpen to hook after five with two pitchers with a history. We have Adcock, SOS, and Tex for at least the 6th and 7th, then are stacked for a 7th inning wobble and the 8th and 9th. I know Yost wants to show confidence in his starters, but both Hoch and Davies either lack endurance or have tips that make them hittable the third time through the order. There are starting to profile as long relievers rather than starters.

by Jim Fetterolf on Apr 6, 2011 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't like how you just assume Francis' start was fluky.

He’s on my fantasy team, so I’m taking the position that he will sustain this.

by hawkinscm87 on Apr 6, 2011 1:14 PM EDT reply actions  

I dont think the Francis start was fluky

Just a good start from a guy who is capable of pitching that well now and then, and has done it in the past

by LimaTime10 on Apr 6, 2011 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

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