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Lorenzo Cain Rebounding From A Slow Start

Everyone seems to be of the opinion that had the Royals not signed Melky Cabrera, Lorenzo Cain would have been the Opening Day centerfielder. But the Royals did sign Melky Cabrera and they did promise him the starting job in centerfield. Because heaven forbid we lose Melky Cabrera.

Lorenzo Cain meanwhile got hurt and started off slowly in Omaha. Melky's vaguely acceptable start to the season pushed the entire issue to the back pages.

Cain has hit better of late however, and now his AAA triple slash line is .306/.348/.415. As with Alcides Escobar, Cain is a plus defender at a prime position who doesn't have to be a great hitter to contribute. Although like Escobar there are questions as to if this is possible.

In truth, the Royals are an in an odd position. Melky has been good enough to play, but only just so. He's shown more power than expected, but his on-base skills are down in 2011, even for him. I've given up trying to predict Royal moves, so I'm not certain how this will play out. For the time being, it certainly looks like Cain is a) doing a little better and b) could use additional time in Omaha.

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Comments

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I think the Royals were willing to stick with melky for a little while and then go with Cain. But now Melky is performing better than expected, so I think the plan is stick with him until they can trade him in July. But he likely won’t be hitting this well in July and his defense will continue to be decidedly below average, and likely no team will want to acquire him. Would he be a starting OF upgrade for any contender? And if he’s a 4th or 5th OFer, does any team want a player for those roles who doesn’t have a single plus skill?

So then if they can’t trade him, what does that mean for Cain? Will he be in Omaha all season? I thought no team ever keeps a prospect who is performing well in AAA for an entire season? Or will they call him up just to sit him on the bench or be a part-time player? This Melky signing is looking worse and worse with every passing day.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 12:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Although I agree with you, Scott,

I feel obligated to point out that the Royals apparently do not, when it comes to Melky’s defense. From everything I’ve read/heard – they think he is at least an average defensive CF, if not a plus defender.

(Yes, this sounds familiar. Let’s hope what we hear/read is for the same reasons they were praising Yuni’s defense the last two seasons)

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

you cant just twist mine and others words like that...

we said elite prospects who are not blocked. Cain isnt an elite prospect and currently, he is blocked by melky who is playing well. Cain fits no part of the criteria we were looking for when talking about hosmer

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on May 16, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Absolutely

Comparing Cain-Melky to Hosmer-Kila is seriously strained.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Weird...

I find it strange that you continue to relate every player with a decent line in AAA to Eric hosmer. I admire your dedication to the cause of keeping hosmer on the farm until 2012, but eric hosmer is not lo Cain. He was the best HS hitter in his class and when healthy and sighted, he obliterated minor league pitching. Obliterated it. Cain is a nice prospect with good results. He’s not Eric hosmer, and equating the two is dishonest in the most cynical way.

by billexgordler on May 16, 2011 3:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Did Hosmer "obliterate" AAA pitching this year?

Or did he hit a lot of singles with very few extra base hits?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

We believe you both mean...

He is who you say he is*

and

then crown of thorn his ass!

*probably just a confusion over the vulgate

by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on May 16, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm I think Will means

He is who He is…. Sort of like “I am that I am”

by Prime2U on May 16, 2011 8:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Clearly saving the power for when he got called up.

"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.

by RoyalPug on May 16, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s worth noting Cain’s service time status—I believe that if Cain is kept down another month or so, he’ll fail to reach a full year’s MLB service time between this year and last. With a player like Cain who is already a bit older and will likely never be a star, gaming service time isn’t a huge deal, but it’s one more reason to ride out the Melky situation for another month or two before making a move.

Melky has also been good, as in better than acceptable. He won’t likely keep up a .470 slugging percentage, but he’s projects as a roughly average centerfielder the rest of the way. He’s also got another season of arbitration before he hits free agency, so he might have some small value in a trade. The FO has made it pretty clear that Cain is going to get every chance to be the centerfielder of the future, so I expect they’ll try to make room for him this season, and unlike Guillen, Melky should be movable. If Melky were waived right now, I expect he’d be snatched up quickly.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 12:33 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

So the Royals should game Cain's service time to get an extra year of him, but not Hosmer

Man, everything’s upside down now.

The FO has made it pretty clear that Cain is going to get every chance to be the centerfielder of the future

Well, not every chance. Every chance would have included April and May of 2011. He’ll likely get a chance…eventually. Hopefully.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

My goodness, you want this to be in every thread.

I’m done with the argument about whether waiting till 2012 on Hosmer was reasonable.

As for waiting a couple months on Cain, it makes sense. It’s not clear that Cain would be an upgrade in the present over Melky. Moreover, it’s not clear that Cain is 100% MLB ready. His statistics are not overwhelming and he strikes out far too often. Melky’s earning his keep, Cain isn’t forcing the issue, and service time considerations favor waiting a month or two. This seems like a pretty easy decision for now.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

My goodness, you want this to be in evey thread

You brought up the issue of gaming service time to get an extra year of him. And I was just looking for some logical consistency in argumentation. Didn’t find it.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was in favor of waiting a month for Hosmer. I am in favor of waiting a month for Cain.

Let’s ease on the snide, aggressive tone.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the record, in order to get an extra service year from Cain, given the amount of time he was in the majors last year, the Royals would have to wait until at least sometime in August.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sounds right

I live out of town, but in searching for a Rany podcast on 810’s site, I heard one of Petro’s guys say it would only take a month or two more, but now that I look at his promotion date (mid-July), it appears that Cain would have to be held in AAA till August to save a year of service time. If that’s the case, then you just trade Melky whenever you think Cain is ready and you don’t stress the service time. He’s 25, he’s not going to be a super-2 (unless you delay his clock a year), and you’ve got control of him through his prime. Just do whatever you feel is best for his development and put financial considerations aside.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Putting aside the wisdom of keeping Cain in Omaha until Melky can be traded, what if Melky can’t be traded by the deadline? Then what should the Royals do?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

there’s always the waiver trade deadline. And after that it’s just a couple of days until rosters expand!

2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition

by sfeldkamp on May 16, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you think Cain is ready and you can’t get anything back for Mekly, waive Melky. It’s unlikely that you’d have to eat what’s left on his $1.25M contract, but even the worst-case scenario isn’t that bad.

Moore could screw this up and hold onto a tanking Melky Cabrera, thereby accomplishing nothing but stunting Cain’s development. But the problem won’t have been signing Cabrera for $1.25M—it will have been refusing to cut bait when things went bad. So far, the signing looks pretty good because the price was cheap and the player has performed well. It also sets up an avenue to make bad decisions, but those decisions don’t need to be made. And if they are made, I hope we’ll criticize those (bad) decisions rather than the (arguably good) Melky signing.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

more like some time in June

he has 66 days of service time, so he should be under 172 by the end of the season if he comes up in about a month.

by 9il on May 16, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the record, Scott is wrong

Cain has 66 days of service time 1
If he accumulates less than 106 days of service time this season, he’ll be under a full year. The last day of the season is September 28, which means as long as Cain comes up after June 14, he would not be a free agent until after the 2017 season

1 http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/kansas-city-royals_28.html

"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"

by KSinDC on May 17, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last I looked,

Cain had a 27% strike out percentage at Omaha and an 8% walk. His hitting is ramping up, but he needs to sustain it for a few more weeks and get more selectivity and contact at the plate before he forces anything. It’s timing out well enough, Melky getting traded and Cain promoted, or even Lough, who is producing. Not like Cain is dominating and Melky doing a Kila at the moment.

“This Melky signing is looking worse and worse with every passing day.”

In hindsight. At the time, Royals didn’t have Cain and needed some filler til Lough or Dyson were ready. Melky’s doing a decent enough job and Cain still has some issues.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

In hindsight. At the time, Royals didn’t have Cain

They had Maier. And Maier isn’t good, but he projected to be better than Melky. Not by a lot, but by a little, and for league minimum.

Melky’s doing a decent enough job and Cain still has some issues.

Melky doesn’t have issues? What about his limited ability to get on base and his poor defense?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought he was talking about whether the signing was wise at the time
What about Melky’s.340 wOBA and his .8 WAR in 39 games—a 3.2 WAR pace for the year?

What about it? Do you expect to hit anything like that for the rest of the season? Well, you probably do, but there’s no good reason for anyone to expect that.

You have to have a pretty negative outlook to see a $1.5M signing (with what amounts to a cheap club option for next year) with the player playing well above league average, and make a conclusion that the signing "is looking worse and worse with every passing day."

No, you don’t have to have a negative outlook; you just have to avoid myopia. Who important is an extra win for the Royals in 2011 when they aren’t going to be contending? It isn’t important. It is nearly valueless. What is important is the future (short, medium and long-term). The Melky signing, the insistence on playing him everyday and the difficulty in trading him is blocking Cain, who has a chance to be a decent CFer for the Royals in the short and medium-term.
If Melky falls off a cliff and actually blocks a Lorenzo Cain promotion past the point that you’d want it delayed, then maybe there’s grounds for a complaint, but for now at least, I suspect bashing the Melky signing will be a lonely enterprise.

Again, you are looking only at the present effect on the KC Royals w/l record which is nearly irrelevant. Cain is 25, in his third partial season at AAA and already has MLB experience. He’s hitting well in AAA and needs to be developed in the majors so that he can contribute in 2012 and beyond. He’s not some inexperienced kid who needs more minor league seasoning. He’s ready to learn how to be an effective major leaguer.

Another note on service time. If the Royals called Cain up now, they’d have him for his age 25-31 seasons. I don’t think adding his age 32 season is something I think is very important. He’s hopefully going to be an average player with a lot of his value in defense. So the age 32 season shouldn’t be one of his best and he could really be losing value by then.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

In response to:

What about it? Do you expect to hit anything like that for the rest of the season? Well, you probably do, but there’s no good reason for anyone to expect that.

See above where I wrote:

Melky has also been good, as in better than acceptable. He won’t likely keep up a .470 slugging percentage, but he’s projects as a roughly average centerfielder the rest of the way.

And you got really creative with this line:

Cain is . . . in his third partial season at AAA .

Cain has 241 plate appearances in AAA. Those were spread out over 3 years, yes, but in terms of games played in AAA, he’s spent less than half a season there. As for Cain’s readiness, he’s striking out 26% of the time in AAA. If Kila has taught us anything, it’s that it’s more difficult to make contact against MLB pitching than it is against AAA pitching.

Don’t take me wrong—I’d love to see Melky traded and Cain promoted soon, but I don’t think Melky’s signing was a big problem. Moore has said he wouldn’t have done it had he known he’d wind up with Cain a week later, but even given this circumstance, it’s not like Cain has nothing left to learn in AAA.

I really don’t see Melky as blocking Cain at the moment. For one, Melky should be easy to trade when Moore decides it’s time. Melky Cabrera isn’t Jose Guillen. Melky’s projects as a roughly average centerfielder on a cheap contract with a club-friendly option for next year. The Royals can’t expect a great prospect for him, but they’ll certainly find a taker if they keep their price reasonable. As for Cain’s development, I’m not convinced it would be ideal to promote him right now anyway. A 26% strikeout rate in AAA isn’t acceptable for a speed player that profiles with gap power at best.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

People keep quoting his K-rate as if that means he’s not hitting well. There are many very good MLB hitters with that kind of strikeout rate. That stat doesn’t mean what you are acting like it means. If you just mean that he still has something to work on, well lots of good MLB-ready prospects still have things to work on. The Royals recently promoted a guy like that.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can strike out a quarter of the time in the big leagues if you’re hitting home runs, but nobody thinks Cain will hit home runs. You can’t hit for average if you’re striking out that much, and Cain needs to hit for at least decent average.

Assuming 0 home runs and a .320 BABIP, a 15% strikeout rate gives you a .272 average. A 25% strikeout rate gives you a .240 average. Cain will probably hit enough home runs to boost each of those by ~10 or so points, but if Cain winds up being a guy that strikes out a quarter of the time, he’s going to struggle to stay above replacement level. Last year’s 19% would be much more palatable.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

And I would argue that not everything about his AAA stat line has to be perfect in order to call up a 25-year-old prospect who is hitting well overall. Not everything was right about Hosmer. He’s going to need an ISO greater than .154, but that doesn’t mean he was MLB-ready or close to it. And Melky should only continue to block Cain if we’re more worried about wins and losses in 2011 than we are in 2012 and beyond. And we shouldn’t be.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok. I was just responding to your saying that there are many very good MLB hitters with strikeout rates similar to Cain’s 26%. While it’s true that many players can be successful striking out 26% of the time, I don’t think Cain can be one of those players. If Cain strikes out that much in the Majors, I doubt he’ll worthy of a starting role.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

People keep quoting his K-rate as if that means he’s not hitting well.

It means he’s not hitting at all over a quarter of the time. Figure a .300 BABIP on the 3/4s of the time he does hit, .300×.750=.225.

“If you just mean that he still has something to work on,”

On that we all agree and several of us think that AAA is the place to work on one of the most basic of baseball skills, hitting the ball.

As for his recent hitting surge, that shows promise. If he can keep it up til Melky gets traded or Maier gets DFAed, great. If not, Lough comes up.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Apparently you still think that a 25% K-rate means a player is a bad hitter

Some notable bad hitters in 2010:

Jayson Werth 26.5%
Dan Uggla 25.3%
Adam Dunn 35.7%
Corey Hart 25.1%
Rickie Weeks 28.3%

So please don’t say that a guy is a poor hitter because his K-rate is XX%. A CFer is hitting .306/.348/.415 is hitting well, regardless of his K-rate.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 17, 2011 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

A question:

Looking at the minor league stats, one could argue that Lough is every bit as ready for a shot at the big leagues as Cain.

What I’m unsure about:

1) Lough’s defense
2) does the fact that the Royals thunder offensively is already predominately LH batting factor in to this?
3) Is Lough on the 40 man?

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, Lough is on the 40 man

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by RoyalsRetro on May 16, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is hard to know

how someone’s defense is in the minors, except by scouting reports and what you see everyday, if you are in a position to watch these guys every day. If you see them every once in a while your eyes can deceive you. (e.g. Giavotella’s scouting report says below average range, yet in each of the few games I have seen him, he has made an eye popping, far ranging play.)

I think Lough’s problem with the Royals is that he is an all around good player, but does not have the one thing that jumps out at the scouts. (I refer to this as DDJ syndrome, even though DDJ was a very good fielder, and a better all around player than most guys with the curse that bears his name) He has some power, some speed, some ability to get on base, and is probably an OK outfielder. NO big plus tools, but no big minuses either. He has been successful and should be ready. There are always other guys with real speed, real power, or a great glove who catch the eye more quickly.

Even when a guy with his skill set makes the majors, they are always looking to replace him with somebody more sexy. When they do make it, and get regular playing time, they are generally only appreciated by serious fans of their teams, as they don’t generate good fantasy numbers. Most of them become 4th outfielders, and play on at least 3 teams in a journeyman type career.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on May 16, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lough's Total Zone is positive over 5 MILB seasons

Pretty good, actually, and he’s positive in LF, RF, and CF. It’s not the final word, of course, but a sign that he’s at least decent out there.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lough-001dav

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 16, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

One final thought:

Looking at the big picture, one could argue that answers for the corner and DH spots are either already here (Gordon, Hosmer, Butler), or on the way (Moustakas, Myers).

That leaves the “up the middle” spots of 2B, SS, C, and CF. Perhaps it is OK to live with Escobar at SS for his defense – but to win championships, the Royals really need better players at the other spots. Perhaps this is where Moore needs to spend some of the FA dollars – on a star for one of these spots. Of course, since these are harder to fill, they will likely be very costly.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Colon, Escobar, Perez, Cain

PROBLEM SOLVED

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by RoyalsRetro on May 16, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

My worry:

Ignoring the fact that some prospects fail – even if these projected guys make it, none of them project to hit much at all, with the possible exception of Colon.

Eibner and Rey Navarro may be better – but both are still in the low minors, and hence even more uncertain to hit.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the time being until everything gets sorted out

I’d like to see:

Moose at 3rd
Betemit at SS
Aviles at 2nd
Jesus Hosmer at 1st

I don’t recall if Aviles is stronger at 2nd or SS, but regardless him and Betemit at least from an offensive standpoint deserve to be playing every day.

by KCTiger on May 16, 2011 3:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Betemit at SS

would be way worse than Getz at the plate.

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by sfeldkamp on May 16, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gordon at SS

would be better than Betemit at SS

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

So then stick him at 2nd if you feel more safe there

Either way I don’t think you can make the argument that Aviles and Betemit, no matter how bad their defense might be (which in Aviles case at 2B isn’t bad at all), would be a worse scenario than Getz/Escobar.

Escobars bat does not equal Betemits glove. Most people would take the offensive production over the defensive efficiency. Especially when it is as glaring as the differential between Alcides and Wilson’s bat. (which I guess you can make the example that Escobars glove doesn’t equal Wilson’s bat)

by KCTiger on May 16, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wilson can’t handle third base. He can’t play a middle infield position. Like Ned Yost is not an astronaut and Billy Butler is not a first baseman, Wilson Betemit is not a middle infielder.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have You Ever

Seen Yost pilot a spaceship? I didn't think so

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 16, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is a meritocracy after all

When players are ready, they get called up. Right, Dayton? . . . Dayton?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meritocracy

Cain isn’t ready and isn’t an obvious step up from Melky at the moment, as has been pointed out. You seem to have trapped yourself in strained equivalency, equating Cain and Hosmer, and Melky and Kila, and even Duffy and Hosmer, and Davies and Kila. Hosmer forced a call up while Kila did nothing, and is still doing little, to show that anything but a major improvement. The superiority of either Cain or Duffy at the moment is less obvious if it exists at all.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not clear if Duffy is an upgrade over at least one of the current SP's

Is that supposed to be a joke, a typo or did I misread?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is that supposed to be a joke, a typo or did I misread?

Duffy has had a couple of recent starts, in AAA, that looked downright Davies or Hoch. He’s sitting on a 3.00 ERA at the moment, quite a change from his early dominance. I recommend Greg Schaum’s site to keep up on the minors.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

So Duffy’s not an upgrade over any current Royals starter because he’s had a couple of not great starts and he has a horribly high 3.00 ERA? I’m sorry, but you’re ridiculous. And your comments here have been particularly so. I recommend Fangraphs, THT and BPro sites to learn about stats.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 17, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I can see an argument for Cain not being much better than Melky (at the moment); however,

I’m going to have to disagree about Duffy. Our starting rotation is 13th in the AL in ERA. Duffy almost certainly HAS to be better than at least one of the six starters employed to date…

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Duffy has only made 14 starts above A+ ball...

I didn’t know that before today… I don’t know if this is a big deal, Lincicum only made like 11 starts in the minors, of course i also don’t think Duffy is Lincicum good.

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Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625

by averagegatsby on May 16, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow weird error there...like I was saying

Lincecum is an anomaly. Okay…maybe not an anomaly, but a difference from the mean. There were a lot of questions revolving around him and his control/max effort and he proved them wrong by a mile. I think that led to his immediate promotion. He wasn’t even considered in probably the top 5 pitchers his draft year.

Duffy has had the same path as Lincecum, except for his seemingly high prospect level, and is proving his worth. Sure you could make the case for his rapid ascent being too fast, but imagine if he wouldn’t have left baseball for however long that was. Probably looking at another 10 or so starts at least. And yet even with that time off he has proven to be a great prospect.

If the Royals aren’t waiting to break the service time deadline then Duffy/Monty and Cain need to be brought up. You have to be able to make a case that Cains roster spot would be more valuable than Dysons somewhat limited value.

by KCTiger on May 16, 2011 3:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Lincicum also pitched in college.

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Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625

by averagegatsby on May 16, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Moore's comments on SP:

Scott, living in New York, you may not have heard all of DM’s comments about callups. I’ll paraphrase something he said on Petro’s show last week:

He said that it was a lot more obvious when a SP was ready for a call than a position player, because you can evaluate his first pitch strike percentage, his strike percentage by pitch-type, and whether the opponent was swinging at “good” pitches or “good pitches out of the zone”. He went on to say that yes, major leaguers also swung at off speed stuff out of the zone, but to a lesser extent than minor leaguers.

He concluded by saying he thought it was critical that once a pitcher prospect is called up (regardless of his role), that he be called up for good, and that it wasn’t as critical for a position player if he had to be sent down again (jives with what he has done with Gordon and Butler).

Don’t know if I agree with this – but FWIW it is his modus operandi. I assume this implies that confidence/fragility is more of a potential issue for pitching prospects than for positon prospects.

So, perhaps Moore may even agree that Duffy is better than several of our current SPs – but he is going to be closer to 100% sure that he can come up and stick for good before he pulls the trigger?

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

He also said that they’d like to see improvements in Duffy’s ability to locate his secondary pitches. Honestly, it sounded like they wanted to give him a few more starts to (1) give the Royals time to figure out who to cut, (2) make it past the super-2 deadline, and (3) make some small improvements to increase his readiness. I think we’ll see Duffy in the big leagues within a couple weeks if he maintains his current level of performance.

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

give the Royals time to figure out who to cut

I assume that they are shopping Francis and watching Chen’s lat closely. If Maz doesn’t perform, Duffy could come up, if he can produce a couple of good starts in a row. His current, last couple of starts, performance is why there is a question on him.

by Jim Fetterolf on May 16, 2011 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

So if the Royals keep Duffy in Omaha, then they are doing the right thing because he’s not ready yet. And if the Royals promote Duffy, then they are doing the right thing because he’s MLB-ready. I think I get it. You trust this front office to do the right thing. I think that speaks for itself.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 17, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve given up on trying to find consistency in Moore’s thought process or even understanding his process. In this discussion i was just looking for some consistency from the fans who are eager for prospects to be called up. I think many of them are just eager to think that things are really going well. The team is playing well, the GM is calling up players at the right time, everything is just peachy. That’s a happy world to live in. It just doesn’t represent reality.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 16, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Assuming we can believe what Moore says (and that it always isn't merely "GM Speak"),

then I think he has been clear enough about promotions:

1) He has said there needs to be two things present: the player has to be deemed “ready” for a promotion, and there has to be an opportunity at the big league level.

2) He has said that he will (and I’m parphrasing here) be more cautious promoting pitchers than position players

FWIW, that is the way he has operated, so I guess we can believe his stated philosophy.

Now, as to what constitutes “ready” for promotion, and what constitutes an “opportunity” at the big league level – well let’s just say this blog and Moore have OFTEN disagreed on the latter, and occasionally disagreed on the former.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on May 16, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Tigers

are said to be shopping for an outfielder with a little pop. Rumor is that they’re interested in Frenchy. If that’s so, wouldn’t Melky appeal to them, too? An in-division trade would be downright strange.

by LaFLamme on May 16, 2011 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Francouer/Melky/Kila/Falu

For Scherzer/Verlander?

I gueeesssssssss…

by KCTiger on May 16, 2011 4:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I'm Glad He

Has been able to stay close to the game he loved for as long as he has. You can’t ask for much more than that in this life. Excuse me while I cry.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 16, 2011 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

RR= Playboy

Hosmer stuff=naked pictures

Other stuff=other stuff

Stuck following the Royals since 1976.

by A. B. Aird on May 16, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would bet money that we will be able to trade melky.

Now rather or no DM does that we will have to see. Maybe I’m alone but I’m pretty happy with the free agent moves. Now if we don’t trade Melky before the deadline I could understand why people would be upset.

by usethejon on May 16, 2011 7:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

What happened?

Duffy promotion incoming?

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

If Davies misses a start.....

Chen won’t be eligible to come off the DL for Davies’s next start. Duffy would be the logical choice, right?

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whoops--these was supposed to be in game thread

Davies just left with an injury….I’m sure this will be covered in another thread tomorrow

by kcdc1 on May 16, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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