A few weeks ago, kcdc1 and I made a "bet" (Ithere were no stakes, so I'm not sure it really qualifies, but I did commit myself to a side, so there). If I remember correctly, he took the position that Francoeur would finish at least 2 WAR (he wouldn't commit to more... heh). I took the under. Well, as you can see from the screeen shot above, from this morning, Jeff Francoeur is at 2 WAR now. Sure, he could play at below replacement level the rest of the season (he's still Jeff Francoeur), but the chances are against that... So I'm not sure whether I'm conceding or not (given that I assumed Francoeur would start hot), but I didn't think it would go on long enough to come to this.
Plus, since this is the first time I've ever been wrong, I thought you'd all want to see evidence of this historic moment. Congratulations kcdc1, Jeff Francoeur, and, of course, Dayton Moore! 3/20 now!
about 1 year ago
Matt Klaassen
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Thanks Matt
And in the spirit of reconcilliation, I hereby admit that Mike Jacobs sucked exponentially harder than I ever thought possible. I rationalized that signing by telling myself that it would motivate Billy Butler (could have been partially right—Butler did have a bit of a breakout that season) and that Kila would eventually get his chance anyway (could not have been more wrong). But on Jacobs production….well, I was even more wrong on him than I was on Kila.
No need for reconciliation
what’s the internet for if not sniping at each other other silly things like this?
But thanks for being more than gracious.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Hah, was trying to keep the humorous tone of the post
But if it came off as gracious, I’ll take that too.
Second discussion point:
Holy crap UZR loves Francoeur’s defense this year—he’s on pace for a +20 fielding season which sounds ridiculous, but he did hold that pace a full year in 2007. Do we think that’s for real? Maybe the losing weight and focusing on speed that we heard all about in spring training did have some unexpected significance.
If he keeps up this fielding pace and regresses to his ZiPS offensive projections, he’ll be good for another 2 WAR pretty easily this season. And no, I’m not betting on Frenchy to hit 4 WAR. But barring injuries, I do think he’s likely to at least hit 3 WAR.
He was pretty bad last year
But he’ll have a ton of PA’s, and it’s not that hard to make Type B. I’m don’t know much about it, but I’d guess that he has a decent chance.
Of course the Royals (or whomever)would have to offer him arb...
yikes! Is that a chance you want to take?
Also, as noted in earlier discussions, the compensation system seems like it has a good chance of being overhauled in the new CBA.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t have a good sense for how much veterans earn in arbitration. Given that his current salary caps out around $3M, how much could he really win in arbitration? Even if he keeps playing well, it’s not like he’ll have super-star home run and RBI numbers. I’d imagine that that if he played well enough to be a Type B free agent, he’d make more in the free agent market than he would in arbitration.
plus he could sign a multi-year deal
he’d make more in the free agent market than he would in arbitration
by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 24, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, both sides could agree to the mutual option for 2012
Or they could scrap that and sign a new deal, either one-year or multi-year. I think he’l likely be a Royal in 2012 and arbitration will not enter into it.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 24, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
He's probably type O
In order, the frequency is O, A, B, and AB. I think type O is the universal donator, that anybody can accept type O+ blood, so that in itself would make Frenchy useful in case somebody needs a transfusion.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
I'm not sure what to make of it
I don’t think he’s a +20 fielder, very few are in right fielder. He’s good out there, but a lot of that is his “ARM” rating so far. While Francoeur throws well, I suspect he won’t keep up that ARM pace in particular, since there is less overall variance in skill there and it regresses more quickly. Since we don’t have the list of “chances” and “throws” or “chances” and “bases not taken rate” (which is how ARM incorporates a fielder’s arm reputation, by the way), it’s hard to tell if teams are taken too many (or too few!) chances on him so far because of unfamiliarity/testing (he only played a short while in the AL last season).
I wonder what he could bring back in trade? On one hand, every team knows how he in particular can be hot a heck on minute then turn on a month of Escobar-level futility. That would make me think that KC should wait. On the other hand, well, if he starts one of those streaks…
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
If I was a go-for-broke team
like the Brewers and likely to be in the playoffs I would really consider him and just hope like hell he got hot at the right time. Heck, it worked out pretty well for the Rangers last year.
I must say, I’m pleasantly surprised that I don’t hate having him on my team. Depending on the terms, I might not even hate an extension, but he will probably get more in free agency than I would want to risk on him.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
He Lights Up My Life Too soon?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 24, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The guy who wrote that awful song offed himself
He was hooked on cocaine and facing charges for raping about 70 different women. Link here.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
Yeah, he's got such a track-record of getting hot early and then doing nothing the rest of the year.
I don’t think he’d fetch much in a trade unless he keeps tearing the cover off the ball for another month and a half—at which point, people might be willing to roll the dice on the chance that he’s finally turned a corner. Even given a red-hot Frenchy through July, the Royals would still be seeling a half-year rental that would be just barely an impact player, so you’d be looking at a C+/B- prospect at best.
And you’re right, +20 is very unlikely this year. Even in 2007 when he was +20 for the season, I doubt that was his true skill level, as the year’s bookending 2007 were +7 and -2. But Francoeur does have a track record of good fielding, and the stats so far tell an encouraging story. I suppose when I was asking about whether the +5 UZR so far is ‘for real’, I was asking whether we can expect him to make it up to about +10 UZR for the year.
If we got a B- prospect... I'd do three backflips
since those are equally likely
I’m thinking we get either another SOS or an A-ball “live arm”
DO it fast, Dayton.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant to say that a B- prospect is the best-case scenario where Frenchy keeps crushing the ball and playing great defense AND Moore pulls off a great deal. That’s an unlikely combination. A C or C+ prospect might be within reach tho.
What do we think the odds are that Francoeur is a Royal in 2012?
Right now I’d put it at 75%. And no that’s not a good thing.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
I'd go probably 80-85%
And no, it’s probably not a good thing, but who’s the most likely internal or external-and-cheap candidate for RF duty in 2012? Lough? No way they bring Maier back for 2012 after giving him no more than 100 AB’s this season. Shift Gordon over and give Lough LF?
No one on external list is really piquing my interest, with the exception of Swisher (assuming he’s actually available). They all seem too old, expensive, overrated, or a combination of both. I guess Dayton has trained me to hope for the lesser of two evils, which means a REASONABLE (and I do mean reasonable, Dayton) contract for 2012 with Francoeur would not upset me greatly, given the alternatives (such as a Guillen-style overpay/overlong deal with a Ludwick-type). Then it will just be a matter of hoping that Myers doesn’t have any major hiccups in his development so that he’s basically ready to take over RF full-time beginning in 2013.
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 24, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The potential extension for Francoeur really worries me
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 24, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh.....I really like the guy
He’s going to have to play badly for my team before I start worrying about them keeping him around.
Is the rest of his performance record relevant?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 25, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmm, that's odd
I would think that whether or not you want the player kept around would depend on how good the player is and therefore how he’s likely to perform. Wouldn’t more than how he’s played for your team be extremely relevant to that?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 25, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're irrationally bearish on Francoeur
He’s been awesome so far this year and he projects as at least average going forward. He’s also nearly universally liked by those who interact with him. Forgive me if I focus our my concerns elsewhere until he plays poorly for the Royals. I’ll let you handle the Frenchy worrying.
I just try to evaluate players honestly
And I don’t give undue weight to a player’s suddenly different performance while wearing Royal Blue (or Powder Blue). The data point of Francoeur’s one good month as a Royal (April) counts. But so does his unimpressive May. The other months of his recent years in the majors count too. It really doesn’t make sense to ignore the rest of a player’s performance record and focus only on his time as a Royal, especially when that time has been so short.
he projects as at least average going forward
No, he doesn’t. HIs “going forward” projection (ZiPS ros) is a .327 wOBA which certainly isn’t average for a RFer and with his likely defense going forward (again using all relevant data points to project him) and the positional adjustment, he doesn’t project as a league average player going forward.
He’s also nearly universally liked by those who interact with him.
Is this relevant? If so, then I think you should mention his grit, moxy, chutzpah and leadership as well.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 25, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re overestimating league offense. A .327 wOBA would rank 7th out of 15 qualifying RFs according to Fangraphs. Francoeur also plays well above average defense. UZR takes many seasons to stabilize, and since Francoeur is only 27 and likely hasn’t slowed down a whole lot, let’s just take his career average of +8.1 UZR/150. So given his projected offense and his career defensive rate, he projects as an above average RF. If the Royals sign him 3/30, they’d be overpaying, but 2/12 or 3/15 just wouldn’t be that bad.
Dayton Moore
The Vindicator
I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on May 24, 2011 8:00 PM EDT reply actions
Question number one is what can we get for him?
Y’all know more about the league than I do. Which contending teams need a corner outfielder or DH (assuming they’d move their current RF to DH to accommodate Frenchy’s mega-sùper-defense)? After those teams are identified, what are they willing to trade away in order to get him?
Probably not much, a couple of C prospects or so. If that’s all they’re offering for a guy who’s already got 2 WAR, I’d keep him, cross my fingers, and sign him up for next year. It wouldn’t cost a lot, especially considering the payroll is the lowest in MLB, and he could hold down the job until Myers is ready in 2013, hopefully.
However, if a team is offering something the Royals can actually use now, like a catcher or a #4 starter, then I’d trade him in a heartbeat. Hell, I’d take a B prospect and a lefty reliever.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
Allow me to complain a moment about the Röyals' payroll
In Spain there are twenty teams in the soccer First Division. Two of them spend more than even the Yankees. Most of the rest of them, located in Wichita-sized towns, know their cause to win the title is hopeless, but even all of them spend more than the Röyals. And this is a country of 45 million people. Hell, some of the twenty-two teams in the Second Division have higher payrolls than the Röyals. The Second Division, in which metropoli like Soria, Salamanca, and Girona are represented.
Kansas City can’t compete with New York, but there’s no reason it can’t compete with Minneapolis, Cleveland, Detroit, and the south side of Chicago. As young players establish themselves, some money needs to be spent on keepìng them. If this is not done, I will be pissed off.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
Isn't that partly a function of soccer's dominance of the Spanish sporting landscape
The KC television-watching and game-attending audience has to support payrolls not just for the Royals, but also for the Chiefs and (much less significantly) Sporting KC. If you combined all of these together, surely it would top all but Madrid and Barcelona, right? I know there’s also bullfighting, cycling, F1, and other sports that are popular in mid-sized Spanish cities, but I’ve left out the Kansas Speedway here, which I’d guess is comparable to them.
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
KC would be, by far, the third-largest metro area in Spain
Add the Chiefs’ and Royals’ payrolls together and you’re approaching what Valencia and Sevilla, considerably smaller places, pay their players. There are places equivalent to Topeka and Springfield that are supporting teams with higher payrolls than the Röyals.
Also, every city has a second team that sponges off some of the support; there’s Atlético de Madrid, a fairly major player, and also Getafe and Rayo Vallecano in Madrid, Español in Barcelona, Levante in Valencia, and Betis in Sevilla. All these teams spend more than the Röyals.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
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