Over/Under for Eric Hosmer: 200 Career Home Runs?
by Freneau on May 25, 2011 11:00 AM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintWill Eric Hosmer hit over 200 home runs in his career? It's a pretty simple question, albeit one that's nearly impossible to answer with certainty. Still, just as people are excited to talk about who might be running for President in 2016 or reading and writing fan fiction about made up people, the discussion itself can be interesting.
In answering the o/u question on 200 homers for Hosmer, you have to make a statement of belief about a) Hosmer's ability generally and b) his power potential. A 200 homer career is more significant than you think. Here are a handful of players around that total:
- 210 career HRs: Roberto Alomar, Brady Anderson, Rico Petrocelli, Wally Post
- 208 career HRs: Phli Nevin, Jason Thompson, Devon White
- 207 career HRs: Kirby Puckett (more overrated as a player or a human being? tough call there), Richie Zisk
- 206 career HRs: Felipe Alou, Gus Bell, Pete Incaviglia
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You forgot a zero
2000 Mammoth Moon Shots!!!!!!!!
That's 20 home runs for 10 seasons or 10 home runs for 20 seasons.
Lots of things could go wrong to keep any of those numbers from happening. I’d take the under if I were betting.
2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition
Vast Expanse of Kauffman works against him
but I still took the over. He has 3 dingers in his first 16 games. If he can just maintain that pace, he will go way over.
That information is somewhat classified.
I Say Over
He'll benefit from the short RF in Yankee Stadium
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 25, 2011 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
Whoopsie
seems you accidentally used the sarcasm font.
Chiefs Might
by chicks_love_chiefs on May 25, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I would have made that same joke if you didn’t…
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on May 25, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to go with the odds and say under
If Scott is right and circa 50% of top prospects are busts, that makes it even money right there. And even if Hosmer’s not a bust, he might not hit 200 home runs for a variety of reasons, including injury.
He will be with the Röyals for seven years if he is a non-bust, so if he ever plays regularly in Yankee Stadium he’ll probably already have nearly 200 when he gets there.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
I'd thought Cards great Ducky Medwick would have had more HRs than that
Guess he had a comparatively short career.
Totally OT: I think I figured out where the name “The Gas House Gang” came from. In The Gangs of New York (the book) there’s a reference to a notorious early 20th-century outfit of criminal street punks in a part of Manhattan near the municipal gasworks that bore that name. The 1930s Cards did look like a bunch of criminal street punks. I bet some New York sportswriter noticed the resemblance and hung the name on them.
"They may make cool judgements after the fact
But the name of the game is be hit and hit back" --Warren Zevon
Over. Way over.
If he only ends up being as good as Wally Joyner, I will feel completely betrayed.
I could see him similar to Brett (317 HR)
Over by about 100
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 25, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Hosmer will hit 73 HR's next year
and will be assassinated on the field for doing it… Thus never hitting over 200
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on May 25, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He's hitting 128 homers this year.
So…you would be wrong.
its not really fair
to bring up a bunch of roidheads who hit 200 homeruns and compare (i’m not against steroids either btw)
by GobbleforCyoung on May 25, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions
GIVE HOSMER STEROIDS!
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
by averagegatsby on May 25, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Under
feels like he just pulls to RF occasionally
I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on May 25, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
over
i think he’ll hit close to that with the royals
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on May 25, 2011 12:42 PM EDT reply actions
Is 400 > 200?
If so, then the answer is a resounding yes!
The REAL question: Will he hit 200 HRs as a Royal?
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I take the over. Really early start to his career is a help. The fact that he’s really athletic helps in terms of staying power, avoiding injury, etc.
The fact that soooo much hype is attached to his name means he’ll get second, third, and fourth chances even if he fails at an early age, but rebounds later ala carlos pena.
He’s supposed to be a great clubhouse guy – probably means he’ll continue to play later in his career even if his skills decline.
He’s left handed – inherent advantage.
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on May 25, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions
For his career i'd say yes
As a Royals, assuming no extension he is probably looking at 4700 PA’s or so. 200 over that span is one every 23.5 PA’s.
Which means that as of right now he is almost perfectly on pace for 200 exactly. Which means absolutely nothing at this point, but it’s kind of fun.
Edgar knows best.
Im assuming he has 200 homeruns by labor day...
Let alone 200 in his career. He already has what 55, 56 this year?
by KCTiger on May 25, 2011 2:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I would put a pretty confident bet down on over 200... However, 250...
I would probably bet the under.
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Since 2006: Royals win% = .4218, Chiefs win% = .3625
I'll say over..
If he puts up 25-30 in a four-year peak, that’s 100-120, and now you are talking about 6-12 years of 80-100.
What he has working for him is he came up young. I could see him easily eclipsing 200 by the time he is 30.
Not sure about 300, though. He’d have to play for a while.
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
300+
Those were the good ole days... wait I wasn't alive then
Another thing I wonder is how much of this is driven by pessimism?
Or the fact that we’ve never really had a pure power-hitter type (he only hit more than 25 HRs once)? And although I think his home park will eliminate a few of his homeruns, I think his swing combined with his strength overcompensates for that immensely.
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
The () was supposed to say
“As great as George Brett was, he only hit more than 25 HRs once)
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
As great as Mike Jacobs was
He was a horrible, horrible player, and had no business on a professional team.
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
but he had a gooooood time
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
So he now has as many HRs
as Pena, Escobar, Getz and Maier, combined.
by Black and Gold on May 25, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
what are the odds on each?
I’d bet low money on the over if I was given fairly long odds. When the odds aren’t anything but near a push I rarely ever even consider betting. Just ain’t no fun when on a near push there’s still a chance to lose.
Considering that, it’s weird that I’ve never bought a lottery ticket…
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
yeah yeah yeah I know.
moron it’s an O/U bet there are no odds, that’s what you gotta figure out
figured I’d quote that for someone who’s bound to point it out to me
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
So I took the over for $11
if I can be allowed compensation for inflation. I want to go to Taco Bell with my winnings, and so many years from now still be able to buy what $11 will buy today.
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
You should ask the RR community to name a specific homerun total
and then, 19 years from now, we look at the comments and the closest gets a RR t-shirt
batter nine you sucky
I'm saying
over 1,000
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 26, 2011 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions
This seems ridiculously cautious
200? I know Royals fans are trying to restrain themselves from getting overly pumped about any “prospect” and for good reason, nothing good ever happens to us so until it does we wont believe it. But come on, 200?. He broke in at age 21, even if Hos ends up a massive disappointment (which in his case would be a serviceable big leaguer) he will still end up playing around 15+ seasons. Most likely between 17-20 which means he needs to average only about 10-12hr’s a year to get there. Even if his power fails to develop at all from where it now stands (which would be highly unlikely) he would still get to 200 probably with ease. The real question should be will he hit 200 by age 30, now that would be a reasonable poll as he has 9 full seasons (10 with this one) to do it so he would have to average over 20hr a year. I’ll vote yes on that one too.
by longmatt on May 25, 2011 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Most likely between 17-20 seasons?
I’ll have some of what you’re drinking.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
uh.....
Really? He’s 21, count it on your fingers. If he plays 17 seasons he will retire at the age of 37, What do you envision happening? Is he going to decide retire at 35 and run for president? Is he going to pull a Jay WIlliams and crash his motorcycle at 25? He’s a baseball player, what the hell else is he going to do?
Well, this is a problem. I've only got 10 fingers.
He’s 21, count it on your fingers.
The other problem is saying he’s most likely to play for 17-20 seasons, that’s basically saying he’s most likely to be a Hall of Famer.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
OK, Take Off
Your shoes and………..
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 25, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Antonio Alfonseca
would have no problems completing this task.
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 25, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
George Brett only needs Three Fingers
to count to Thirty.
Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.
As of a 2007 study
the average length of an MLB career was 5.6 years. Now, Hosmer being up at 21 and his minor-league pedigree certainly indicate that he’s got a better chance than the average prospect to get to 200 HR’s. But that study also shows that a 17-20 year career is far rarer than you believe it to be.
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 25, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
He won't need 17 seasons though
I’d say it’ll take him 10 seasons tops.
Also, Hosmer’s got the right physical make up to take some abuse and not get injured easily. He’ll hold up well.
by Prime2U on May 25, 2011 6:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But....
That is dependent upon talent. The reason the average mlb career is only 5.6 years is because a significant number of players are not talented enough to be full time mlb starters and therefore they have “careers” that are anywhere from a few days to a few years, which waters down the results. If you are contending that Hosmer is one of those guys then that’s a whole other argument. Im going to go out on a limb and say that since he is already capable of being a full time mlb starter at the age of 21he’s likely able to maintain it.
One more thing.
The quote about Billy Butler only having 58 career hr’s is rather amusing. You realize he just turned 25 right? He’s averaged 15hr a season, he needs 152 to reach 200 so even if he doesn’t gain any power in his prime (which hasn’t started yet) he would still hit his 200th hr before his 35th birthday. So Id say if Hosmer “develops on the Billy Butler career path” he’ll be just fine, but ofcourse thats still ignoring the fact that Eric Hosmer has a legiit 6-4 frame and already has more power than BB at the age of 21.
by longmatt on May 25, 2011 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Over, that's not even a hard call
If you’d said 300 now… That’d be a tough one.
by Prime2U on May 25, 2011 6:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I can't believe I registered for this.
I’ve read your blog on my rss feed for a few seasons. You guys do a good job. I can’t believe the amount of work I had to do to register to make this comment.
If you don’t think that Eric Hosmer is going to hit 200 home runs, then how could you possibly spend time following this sport?
by ron cocktoasten on May 26, 2011 1:08 AM EDT reply actions
Welcome to Royals Review!
Registering is the hard part – I think you’ll find it pretty easy to access the site in the future. Say hello to Dr. Rosenrosen for me.
batter nine you sucky
Over.
It’s a no-brainer. Whether you’re good at math or not.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on May 26, 2011 10:07 AM EDT reply actions
late to this party - I want to be on record as saying "over"
Heck, Francoeur is in his 7th season and is at 110 HR. He could eventually get to 200 as long as someone keeps giving him a job playing baseball.
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on May 31, 2011 4:02 PM EDT reply actions
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