Will Eric Hosmer hit over 200 home runs in his career? It's a pretty simple question, albeit one that's nearly impossible to answer with certainty. Still, just as people are excited to talk about who might be running for President in 2016 or reading and writing fan fiction about made up people, the discussion itself can be interesting.
In answering the o/u question on 200 homers for Hosmer, you have to make a statement of belief about a) Hosmer's ability generally and b) his power potential. A 200 homer career is more significant than you think. Here are a handful of players around that total:
205 career HRs: Joe Medwick
204 career HRs: Rico Carty, Jose Cruz, Wally Joyner
203 career HRs: Prince Fielder, Richie Hebner
202 career HRs: Bill Dickey, Carl Everett, Sid Gordon, Todd Hundley, Bill White
201 career HRs: Buddy Bell, Gene Tenace
200 career HRs: Bill Freehan, Oscar Gamble, Don Mincher
- 210 career HRs: Roberto Alomar, Brady Anderson, Rico Petrocelli, Wally Post
- 208 career HRs: Phli Nevin, Jason Thompson, Devon White
- 207 career HRs: Kirby Puckett (more overrated as a player or a human being? tough call there), Richie Zisk
- 206 career HRs: Felipe Alou, Gus Bell, Pete Incaviglia
The players on this list got to 200 in a variety of ways. Some by sheer longevity, others utilized a short peak. Some had greater skills in other areas, while others were basically power only hitters who had careers simply because they could hit for power in the first place.
Many of the names on that list don't look like truly great power hitters in a historical sense, but when you consider the thousands of players who have played in MLB, making the top 300 HR hitters of all time is a tremendous accomplishment.
If I had to wager a significant sum of money on Hosmer's career total at 200 (allowing for a push), I think I'd take the under. The under, which benefits from injuries and simple failure, has much going for it. It also allows for the possibility that Hosmer develops along the Billy Butler
career path. Despite an early start, Butler has just 58 career HRs.
How would you bet?