What We Talk About When We Talk About Butler
by JKWard on May 31, 2011 10:11 AM EDT
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PrintThere has been a lot of discussion floating around the board lately regarding the Royals' starting pitching. Its faults, its flaws, its obvious shortcomings, and outside of, say, Danny Duffy, a Luke Hochevar "every 5th start" spectacle, or the pre-injury dealings of Bruce "Egg" Chen, its general ineffectiveness to maintain a resemblance to anything approaching a competent rotation.
And the conclusion that most have come to is that the Royals should trade Billy Butler. Comments have been made to the extent of "maximizing his value" and "he's just a DH" and "We can bring up Clint Robinson" and "A DH is easier to replace than a starting pitcher."
And while there may be some semblance of truth to some of what is being said, let's not forget A) What he has accomplished so far and B) What he may be capable of in the future.
And possibly the most important question: what is it that you can actually hope to get in return for a player like him right now?
In essence, who is Billy Butler?
In 2009, Butler finished the season with a .301/.362/.492 (OPS .854) line and an OPS+ of 125. While making $421,000, Butler scored a 2.1 WAR, production that was worth roughly $9.4m on the FA market that year. He hit 21 HRs with 93 RBI, 51 doubles, a triple, and a stolen base.
In 2010, Butler finished with a "better" season, hitting at a .318/.388/.469 (OPS .857) clip. His OPS+ was 135. While making $470,000, Butler scored a 2.8 WAR, worth approximately $11.3m on the FA market. He hit 15 HRs with 78 RBI and 45 doubles.
In both seasons, his combined defense and baserunning cost him about a full win share (1.05 in 2009, 0.9 in 2010).
So far this season, Butler is hitting to the tune of .293/.391/.415 (OPS .806), with an OPS+ of 129. He is making $3.5m this year, with 3 HRs, 19 RBI and 14 doubles. His 162-game average puts him on pace for 10 HRs and 61 RBI while drawing a ridiculous 96 walks to just 80 strikeouts. The quick math also puts him on pace for about 2.5 WAR this year, which puts his value at about $10m for the season on the FA market.
So that is what Billy Butler is and has been. But what could he be?
The most common comparison I hear people make regarding Billy Butler is Edgar Martinez. Both are very proficient with the bat, while being considered ill-equipped to play in the field. So, if Butler is destined to be the next Martinez, what can you reasonably expect him to be?
Here is Butler's and Martinez's WAR, by age:
Bear in mind that Butler is in his age 25 season currently, and barring a massive setback, will easily outreach Martinez this year. Also, keep in mind that in 1993-1994 is when Edgar Martinez started suffering from the cadre of injuries that removed him from fielding permanently. In '94 he came back and played 65 (out of 89) games in the field, but only 4 in '95, 2 in '96 (for 3.0 IP total) and 1 in '97 (for 0.1 IP) at third base, while never playing more than 7 in any season at first.
Here is there cumulative WAR by age:
If you consider Butler to be the rough equivalent of Edgar Martinez, and Martinez's career to be a keen aggregate for what you can expect from Billy, than Butler's best years are ahead of him. He made it to the majors before EdMart, and his first seasons have been very successful, given his age and experience. Even if Butler puts up 80% of what Martinez did during his four best seasons, you are looking at a 4-year average of a WAR around 5.25 per season.
However, it is important to point out that Butler will only be entering his peak years by the end of his current contract. The club option for 2015 is only Butler's age 29 season, when he is presumed to be in the 2nd-3rd year of his peak offensive performance.
Which brings us to the third question: What can you reasonably expect to receive for Butler right now?
Here is the list of pitchers that had a cumulative WAR between 4.5-6.5 over the last two seasons (min. 160 IP):
| Hiroki Kuroda |
| Randy Wells |
| C.J. Wilson |
| Javier Vasquez |
| Brett Anderson |
| Johan Santana |
| Scott Baker |
| Carlos Zambrano |
| James Shields |
| Ted Lilly |
| Dallas Braden |
| David Price |
| Jorge De La Rosa |
| Derek Lowe |
| Paul Maholm |
| Jair Jurrjens |
| Anibal Sanchez |
| Matt Garza |
| Clay Buchholz |
| Justin Masterson |
| Phil Hughes |
| A.J. Burnett |
| Jonathan Sanchez |
| Livan Hernandez |
| Mike Pelfrey |
There is not a whole lot there that would have me running to pick up the phone and get another GM on the line (presuming that what we are looking for is what many on this site have talked about, which is an instant-upgrade rotation arm in return for Butler). Assuming you would want to get back multiple pieces, I doubt you will get back young, cost-controlled major league arms such as Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden, or Clay Buchholz. You'd be looking more at MLB-ready AAA arms, or even young pitchers with very little experience, but have shown success in their minor league career and brief major league appearances (i.e. Vance Worley of the Phillies).
And then what? Because what you get in return for Butler has to be successful, and would have to be successful at the MLB level no later than 2012. Otherwise, this fanbase would tear you asunder, and you could count on not getting another contract extension, Mr. ArmChairGM.
Trading Butler right now, or even before the end of next season, seems too imprudent.
- You still don't know what he may become, considering how young he is.
- You have little to no guarantees for what you can expect (performance-wise) in return.
- His value, as high as it is right now, will probably not be maximized for at least another year or two.
To put it more succinctly, trading him now would be like trading Zack Greinke before the 2009 season.
One of the bigger concerns right now, for me, is whether or not the Royals will be able to re-sign Butler, either after 2014 or after the option year in 2015, if he does, in fact, start turning some of those doubles into homeruns at that time. If Butler hits .320/.385/.570 in 2015, the real question becomes whether or not the Royals will spend to keep him around, as opposed to whether or not they should trade him. But even if the Royals wait until then, to find out whether or not Butler will gain the HR stroke that many assume that he can, then is when his value is maximized. As much as you may think trading him now would maximize his return, you would be selling yourself desperately short on what Butler may become. If you wait 18 months, and Butler is still a .300/.360/.490 guy, you can realistically look at trading him to upgrade various areas of need without losing any value. If he amps it up over that time, then he has added value, He'd still be under contract for two seasons, plus the club option for a third. And headed into 2013 is when you can take a long, hard look at moving him to snag that last piece of the rotation, presumably along with a couple of legitimate prospects. If you don't need to move him, then you get the added benefit of seeing whether or not he can turn it on for real before the trade deadline of the 2015 season, and move him during those two-and-a-half seasons. Or, you could re-sign him.
So let's wait and see, shall we?
All information from Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Cot's Contracts.
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+1 Carver ref
Billy Ray might fit into his blue-collar world.
“It ought to make us feel ashamed when we talk like we know what we’re talking about when we talk about [Billy Butler].”
If you arent talking about Cathedral
Then you aren’t making a good enough Carver reference.
by KCTiger on May 30, 2011 4:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not true.
Cathedral is always the first story I teach in Freshman Lit, but I certainly don’t stop there with Carver. It all deserves to be read and referenced.
by OnixConcepcion on May 30, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I'm just kidding with ya...
But Cathedral easily tops them all.
very nice...
we don’t look at what it would do to our lineup if the best hitter was gone…I like the WAR references and how you proved that it would be pretty damn hard to get good value in a Butler trade…I didn’t realize how good he has been and I think a lot of us are in knee jerk mode right, but definitely for good reasons…we see starting pitching crumbling throughout the entire organization and we are in panic mode…once we dip about 15 below .500 we can all settle down and enjoy another underrated Butler season
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.
"We can bring up Clint Robinson" and "A DH is easier to replace than a starting pitcher."
Butler can be replaced in house by a platoon of Aviles and Betamit and both have the advantage of playing a couple of positions as well as Butler plays 1B.
“His value, as high as it is right now, will probably not be maximized for at least another year or two.”
His value is decaying from his ’09 peak.
“To put it more succinctly, trading him now would be like trading Zack Greinke before the 2009 season.”
No, trading him now would be like trading Greinke after his ’10 season, to a team that hopes he is better than he showed and thinks he has solid production left for a short-term run at a championship.
“Butler will gain the HR stroke that many assume that he can”
Butler with a home run stroke is Frenchy without the arm, fielding, or speed. Billy has a ground ball swing and to become a thumper he would have to change to an uppercut, which drops his average.
Butler doesn’t have to be traded, but if a competent 2B who can hit RHP and a couple of good A prospects come in return, pull the trigger. On our current team Billy is of less value than Hos, Frenchy, Melky, or Gordo. He may have more value than two or three of them in trade, so seems the most likely possibility.
He has less value than Melky or Francouer?
Jim, that’s simply not true and essentially ignores everything we know about basically everything. Creationists have a more convincing case with their museum of dinosaurs with saddles than suggesting that.
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by Justin Bopp on May 31, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Jim, that’s simply not true
Melky and Frenchy play competent outfield and both have better speed. Last I saw both have more HRs, RBIs, and probably runs scored. Neither needs to be pinch-ran for.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
If this isn't trolling, I don't know what is
by KSinDC on May 31, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
It’s ignorance.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I thought you were serious.
That’s cute, I guess.
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by Justin Bopp on May 31, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
A serious question Jim
How can the same person who wrote, on May 28:
Treanor is an OBP machine and a solid defender while Pena has failed to seize the opportunity offered him by Kendall being injured. No ‘blocking’ in sight, just Cain and Pena under performing the men you would have them replace. Of course, you probably think Betamit is blocking Moooose and his .260 BA.
today say that Melky (with a .310 OBP) is a better hitter than Billy (with a .391 OBP)
To emphasize this point,
in 89 PAs Brayan Pena has been worth 0.5 WAR.
in 231 PAs Melky Cabrera has been worth 1.2 WAR.
in 115 PAs Matt Treanor has been worth 0.6 WAR.
in 204 PAs, the catchers have combined for 1.1 WAR, just shy of Melky’s 1.2 WAR, in 27 fewer PAs.
Last year, in 158 PAs, Lorenzo Cain was worth 1.3 WAR.
Oh, and Cain has an .852 OPS in Omaha right now. Cabrera’s for the season is .766.
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
Not sure that last point (as expressed) really makes Cain's offense look all that impressive
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by Matt Klaassen on May 31, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and Cain has an .852 OPS in Omaha right now. Cabrera’s for the season is .766.
Cain also is a strike-out machine, but is close to coming up when they can move some of the current OFs. for value. What kind of trade return do you expect from Melky?
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
today say that Melky (with a .310 OBP) is a better hitter than Billy (with a .391 OBP)
OBP is more than hitting, isn’t it? And this is what I actually said: “Melky and Frenchy play competent outfield and both have better speed. Last I saw both have more HRs, RBIs, and probably runs scored. Neither needs to be pinch-ran for.” Guess I didn’t really say that Melky has a higher OBP than Butler or Treanor.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
It
means that walks, among other things, contribute to OBP.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
How is this not hitting?
Are strikeouts to be excluded from measures of a player’s hitting ability?
Jim that's simply not true
is my new favorite RR meme
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by sfeldkamp on May 31, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
Rewind yourself
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 31, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Jim, I know you're impervious to data showing your assertions are wrong
But at least consider this: you propose an Aviles/Betemit platooon at DH even though they’re our only two 3B. If one is playing DH, the other will be at 3B. You’re proposing a platoon at DH and the reverse platoon at 3B? All you’re doing is shifting production from the 3B to the DH spot. Under your proposal, the production drops off at 3B instead of DH, but it drops off all the same.
you propose an Aviles/Betemit platooon at DH even though they’re our only two 3B
That’s where Mooooose may come in. I may be impervious to your selective data, but I would at least trade Butler for a Hosmer while you blanketly consider trading Butler at all to be foolishness. As always in a trade, it’s a matter of return and whether the player traded can be replaced. For the right return, Butler can go and be replaced in house, certainly much easier than Greinke and his ten wins.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Until you put it that way, I don't think I really understood your point
In Billy Butler’s entire career, he has never recorded a single win. Even in a down year, Greinke recorded ten. Matt Klaasen has been bagging on Sean O’Sullivan, but he has two more wins than Butler does this year. If he can be replaced by any scrub from Omaha, then Butler certainly can.
If he can be replaced by any scrub from Omaha, then Butler certainly can.
You don’t seem in the same zip code as my point. I think I’ve explained my views, so maybe you can bring up a stat from Billy’s second grade T-Ball season to prove that he’s better than the Iron Horse and we can continue talking past each other.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
They don't have zip codes where your point is
If you want to have a serious discussion, pick a value-encompassing stat and compare Billy to others. If you don’t like fangraphs WAR, try Baseball-Reference, or Win Shares or something else. If you want to limit it just to hitting, pick a hitting-encompassing stat like wOBA.
If you want to continue establishing conclusions and then searching for data to support them, carry on jumping from hits to RBIs to scouting reports to anecdotal observations and we’ll continue talking past each other.
Jim
KSinDC and Justin Bopp are right. There are stats which help describe Butler’s performance and value. They don’t support your position in the slightest. You are ignoring them. You have to seriously consider that when the facts do not support your argument, you are very likely wrong.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
But what are facts?
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
There are stats which help describe Butler’s performance and value.
Agree, but have yet to see any stats that show Butler is untradable.
“you are very likely wrong.”
I’m wrong when I say that if Billy can be traded for good value in positions that we need that we should trade him because we have other players who can somewhat replace him at DH? Since there is so much Mitch and Aviles love here, that would be a platoon possibility for DH and free up Betamit for full time 3b til Moooose gets here.
“They don’t support your position in the slightest.”
Perhaps you could tell me what you think my position is? I noted above that KS misreads me, and I’ve seen that here several times. Perhaps you could also tell me what the most important stat is, as that seems a moving target.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Jim, that's simply not true
Perhaps you could also tell me what the most important stat is, as that seems a moving target.
Butler’s defenders have pretty consistently used stats that encompass a player’s entire contribution (most of us start with Fangraphs WAR), or, if limiting the discussion simply to hitting, have used stats that encompass a player’s entire hitting performance (most of us start with wOBA).
However, your question illustrates one of the key breakthroughs Einstein made in developing his theory of special relativity, which is that all motion is relative. It seems like the stats we’re using are a moving target, not because the stats we’re using are changing, but because your position is changing (see discussion above where OBP was enough to say Treanor is earning job over Pena, but Billy’s team-high OBP discarded in favor of HR and RBI when comparing to Melky), it appears the other target is moving.
. It seems like the stats we’re using are a moving target,
One day it’s wOBA, next day it’s OPS, another day it’s fRAR. Just wondering which stats you folks consider most important.
“(see discussion above where OBP was enough to say Treanor is earning job over Pena, but Billy’s team-high OBP discarded in favor of HR and RBI when comparing to Melky),”
Don’t think that was said about Treanor. Treanor has high OBP and is a good defender. OBP is part of his value, not the sole element of it. Billy has high OBP, no defense, and his overall plate production doesn’t stand out among the group of about five guys on the team, being the three OFs, Hosmer, and Butler.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
wOBA is where it's at. But sometimes OBP is handier b/c it's more readily available
wOBA does a better job of evaluating the bases earned (or not earned) by a particular event. OBP has the problem (b/c of slugging) that a triple is worth three times what a single is worth, which is not really accurate.
Batting runs are used in both wOBA and WAR, RAR, RAA, etc., so if it is “above replacement” or “above average” from Fangraphs, that’s just a different way of using the same batting data that is used for wOBA.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 31, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
You need to move from "gut" to stats
Compare the wOBA and WAR of “the three OFs, Hosmer and Butler” over recent years. Butler is clearly better. Now, will Hosmer be better? Maybe, we’ll see. How much weight should we put on two months of this season? Not much. Certainly less than the prior three years.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Compare the wOBA and WAR of "the three OFs, Hosmer and Butler" over recent years.
Recent years doesn’t do much good tonight, which is why I prefer trends over average or cumulative stats. Recent years says Soria should stay as closer and Crow should be in Springdale, recent trends disagree.
“Butler is clearly better. Now, will Hosmer be better? Maybe, we’ll see.”
Would you trade Butler for a Hosmer today? Would you trade Hosmer for Butler today?
“How much weight should we put on two months of this season?”
That is the question, isn’t it? If none of the factors of performance change, the past has weight. If, on the other hand, some physical, mental, or emotional changes occur, then the past has less weight. Hosmer got his eyes fixed and exploded, Duffy walked away, came back, and is pitching well in the bigs. If predicting the future was easy, everybody would be rich.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Recent years doesn’t do much good tonight, which is why I prefer trends over average or cumulative stats
Well here is one of your problems. Much study has been done on this. And the studies have consistently found that short-term trends (like over a month or two) are much less predictive of a player’s short-term performance (like how he’s going to perform over the next month or the remainder of the season) than his true talent level over a much larger sample of data (like multiple recent seasons). See for instance, “The Book” by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin.
Now, this is in reference to MLB players with seasons of MLB data. Prospects are much more speculative, and of course even most of the ones who perform very well in the minors fail in the majors.
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by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay,
“And the studies have consistently found that short-term trends (like over a month or two) are much less predictive of a player’s short-term performance (like how he’s going to perform over the next month or the remainder of the season)”
So Tejada shouldn’t have been released, Soria should stay at closer, and Aviles should be the everyday 2B. I disagree but do see your basis for it. What is a large enough sample size to outweigh history? One month is too short, does it take a full year?
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not necessarily pro- or anti-Tejeda drop
but the drop in velocity leads me to believe that he’s injured. Whether or not Paulino was worth adding to the 40-man is debatable, but I really think Tejeda was probably injured. Regardless, we probably don’t have all the information necessary to make an informed opinion on.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, there is no permanency to the Soria demotion.
Soria chose to step down. Once/if the ship is righted, he can presumably retake his role.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
wow...
Tejeda, Soria, Aviles…you kind of have a point there for once…now if only you could combine gut with saber you will be getting somewhere
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.
No
The analysis here is still fundamentally flawed.
The idea that the “trend” — looking at the pattern of stats over the last few games (e.g. is a player “hot”) — is meaningful in and of itself is wrong. Repeated studies have shown this doesn’t work.
However, that’s not to say you can never make decisions based on a little amount of information. To choose an obvious example: when JDLR tore his ulnar collateral ligament last week, the Rockies were right to put him on the DL for the rest of the year, even though his historical performance was good.
If a player starts playing worse, that’s a good reason to look deeper — for an injury or a mechanical issue — and if you find a deeper cause, then that is a good reason to make a decision. But playing trends is not.
by KSinDC on Jun 1, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agree, but have yet to see any stats that show Butler is untradable.
Every player is tradable. That doesn’t mean every player should be traded. And Butler is a good young player who, over the course of his contract, is going to be paid about at the level of a 2.2 WAR player, when is and very likely will be a 2.5-4.0 WAR player. Why trade a good young player who is such a good value for the money?
I’m wrong when I say that if Billy can be traded for good value in positions that we need that we should trade him because we have other players who can somewhat replace him at DH?
Because his replacement(s) would likely replace only a small fraction of his performance.
Perhaps you could tell me what you think my position is?
That Butler really isn’t all that good/important/valuable and that he’s fairly easily replaceable. All of those things are untrue.
Perhaps you could also tell me what the most important stat is, as that seems a moving target.
Hitting/offense – wOBA
Total value – WAR
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Because his replacement(s) would likely replace only a small fraction of his performance.
I’ld like to see that statistically supported, that we couldn’t even replace half of Butler’s performance.
“That Butler really isn’t all that good/important/valuable”
Not my position.
“and that he’s fairly easily replaceable.”
I suggested a couple of in-house possibilities with a platoon of Aviles against lefties and either Betamit, if Mooose comes up, or Mitch against righties. Should Hos or Butler tweak a muscle and Robinson comes up and produces, then he would also be a possible replacement.
“All of those things are untrue.”
The first is your misunderstanding and the second is a matter of opinion, which I’m willing to look at.
“Hitting/offense – wOBA
Total value – WAR”
Fine. Just so we’re on the same page. I’m old school from when Mickey Mantle’s Triple Crown was BA, HR, and RBIs.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Jim, that's simply not true
I’m old school from when Mickey Mantle’s Triple Crown was BA, HR, and RBIs.
No you’re not. If you were, you wouldn’t have advocated for Treanor over Pena. Pena has more HR and RBI and a higher BA than Treanor. By those measures, Pena is clearly the superior hitter.
You’re for whatever information confirms the conclusion you’ve already reached.
by KSinDC on May 31, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
No you’re not. If you were, you wouldn’t have advocated for Treanor over Pena.
Treanor has a number of advantages over Pena, but neither has any value in the following, but a choice must be made and OBP is one of the Holy Grail statistics around here, so I adjust.
.231, 3, 15
.216, 2, 8.
Which shows that neither has any business in a major league batter’s box. Pena is clearly the superior hitter in Arlington, accounting for all of his HRs and 60% of his RBIs.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Jim that's simply not true...
Iron Horse Crime Horse
Don't be lonesome for your heroes. Be your own hero.
by PhattStairs on May 31, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, this is the craziest reading of the rationale for the Greinke trade I've ever read
trading him now would be like trading Greinke after his ’10 season, to a team that hopes he is better than he showed and thinks he has solid production left for a short-term run at a championship.
The Brewers weren’t taking a chance that Greinke was better than we thought. They were taking the chance that now was their window for contending so adding a few marginal wins in 2011/2 at the cost of some wins in the out years is a good trade for them.
Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Royals knew that; the Brewers knew that; the other teams bidding on him knew that. But his 2011/2 Wins Above Replacement are more valuable to a team in position to contend than they are to the Royals, so a trade can be beneficial to both sides.
Unlike Greinke, whose contract expires in 2012, Billy is under contract through 2015. That covers the time period where the Royals expect to contend, so he’s just as valuable to us as he would be to any other team. The rationale for the Greinke does not apply here.
Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
For one of the last several seasons. Last I saw he was sporting a 5.25 or so ERA. I’ll stand by my statement, but will ask you, if we could get a comparable return for Billy as for Zack, would you trade him?
“The Brewers weren’t taking a chance that Greinke was better than we thought.”
They were taking the chance that he was better than he showed in ’10. Still an open question.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm gonna stay out of this.
Just like in the game recap, I don’t have the time to educate.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, for anyone other than Jim who's seriously interested in Greinke's performance this year,
go to http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=n&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0 and sort by FIP or xFIP
Man
That home run rate is something right now.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
It actually makes me a little sad to see how well he's doing
Because it makes me think that there’s no way he comes back in 2013. If KC is a sanctuary, then I think we have a serious chance of bringing him back once he’s had a taste of the harsher world, but if he’s impervious to everything, then I don’t think we’ll ever get him back, even though he could solve a lot of our pitching problems.
If he were to come back,
all the stuff that came out in the media over the last few months would have to be discussed and a lot of questions would need to be answered.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
this...
it would be like Clemens coming back to Fenway
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by PhattStairs on May 31, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, those stats are decent
but we have Escobar saving 3-4 runs a game back there, so it’s more than even.
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by Matt Klaassen on May 31, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
@He gives as good as he gets@
In case anyone was interested, Greinke’s FIP is under 2.8 and his xFIP is under 1.6., and he has been worth 0.7 WAR in five starts.
Jeff Francis leads the Royals with 0.9 WAR for the season.
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Zack Greinke had more value in 2009 and 2010
Than Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur have combined in their entire career.
Billy Butler had more value last season (4.6) than the total value that Mike Aviles (4.5) or Wilson Betemit (4.0) have been able to put together in their careers.
per Baseball Reference.
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But what about RBIIIIIZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ?????
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I assume Butler's career-high of 93
Is better than anything Betemit, Aviles, or Cabrera have put up in a season, and is trumped only by Frenchy’s rookie campaign.
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But since he doesn't put up 130 as a DH
Dump him for a second baseman and some high A prospects
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
Who the hell is suggesting a Butler trade?
Are you guys freaking mad?
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Yeah, it's nonsense.
I’d bet money this is something being said on the radio.
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by Justin Bopp on May 31, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
There was actually quite a bit of ruminating on the subject after the last game in Texas
Carried over from the game thread to the post-game, and some discussion in other fanposts.
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none of it very constructive, might I add.
A lot of “We need starting pitching……uh,…TRADE BUTLER!!!”
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We've done this before and it's worked!
Look at Vin Mazzaro
by sterlingice on May 31, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Who the hell is suggesting a Butler trade?
I have been for quite awhile. Now that Greinke is gone and Soria crashed, he is the most likely trade chip to get a competent 2B and a few more prospects. Of course, I thought Soria should have been traded high in the off-season.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure you did.
The thing about baseball is this:
1. It’s always easy to say a player won’t succeed, because you’ve got a .770 chance of being right.
2. It’s always easy to say we should trade a player NOW, because he’s likely to regress, he’s at peak value, or we need some other area more than this.
The harder part is predicting greatness and knowing when to move assets. What you’re doing is suggesting to move a known quantity at a high-demand skill (“hitting”) for an unknown quantity at a relatively common skill (“sucky middle infielder”) OR for an extremely rare skill (middle infielder that can play defense and hit well).
It’s really inappropriate analysis and I know I have no hope of changing your mind after reading your other comments. This is more for the other people that might stumble across this nonsense and take you seriously.
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by Justin Bopp on May 31, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
^ the end of this
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by Old Man Duggan on May 31, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
BOOM...UNYOSTED?
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by PhattStairs on May 31, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
i would suggest a butler trade
for the right price, as with any player/prospect…butler is a good player, no doubt, but to get something of real value/need, you’re going to have to trade something of value in return.
the conventional wisdom right now is that we are not going to have enough starting pitching to make a real run at the division, be it in 2012 or 2013…i think we need to add one starter through trade and another through FA to fill out a competitive rotation…there are multiple teams (SF, OAK, SEA, TB come immediately to mind) that need offense or a 1B/DH and have excess pitching, and we have several prospects that we could dangle in addition to Butler, such as Moustakas, Myers, Giovatella.
i think this can be a contending team in the near future, but DM is going to have to leverage some of our excess prospects/players in some areas to bring in pitching….i think the offense, defense, and bullpen as currently constructed can be solid, but the pitching just isn’t there (much like the late 90’s).
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 31, 2011 12:16 AM EDT reply actions
I'm seriously okay with a trade to Tampa for
Hellickson and Moore or to SF for some of the crazy amount of good pitchers Oakland/SF have.
Note:
Butler for Hellickson and Moore may be a bit too uneven but you get the point.
Butler for Hellickson and Moore may be a bit too uneven but you get the point.
Does anyone really think Butler is worth a dominant young starting pitcher? I figure an average 2B and a couple of A ball prospects.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Who knows what the Rays want
But who they have playing first? Kasey Kotchman?
Hellickson has been somewhat Hochevar like in the sense that he is either good or terrible.
I’m not saying Butler for Hellickson straight up but it wouldn’t be like we are giving them Dyson or Falu for him.
by KCTiger on May 31, 2011 2:26 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The team will not get enough value
for Butler to trade him.
Would you trade him if someone came to you with an offer that knocked your socks off? Sure, but that’s not going to happen. The fact that he is a DH limits your trade pool to 13 teams and none of those teams are thinking “All we need is a good DH to get us over the hump.”
The team he has the most value to right now is the Royals, who have him signed through his age 28 season, with an option for the age 29 year. This is an optimal contract for a player of Butler’s type. We get the benefit of any possible growth in power, but are not on the hook for any of his 30’s.
Trading him to make room for Robinson/Aviles/Betemit is ridiculous. (And I am in the camp that thinks Robinson will be successful-with some team- in the majors.) Sure he is a horrible base runner, but he does get on base. He might never develop the 20-25 home run power we wanted to see, but he will still be a valuable player in the #5 or 6 hole in the lineup. The OBP is not going away. He is imperfect, but his skill at the plate is not going away.
Making up some sort of dream trade where a team offers you the exact players you want, at the exact positions you want, can make for fun conversation. It’s like talking about what you are going to do when you win the lottery. A fun daydream, not at all based in reality.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
by KHAZAD on May 31, 2011 5:57 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This
about sums up my ideas on it. +1.
“Trading him to make room for Robinson/Aviles/Betemit is ridiculous.”
True, but the point of trading Billy is not to make move for anyone who hasn’t earned it, it is to get back players that we need now or in the future. The possibility that Butler can be replaced fairly easily in-house makes Butler an even better trade chip.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Going in another direction:
Assuming the Royals keep Butler, for now, he should be used as the leadoff hitter, with Betemit batting second. I don’t give a damn about the Royals running game, and this organization should NOT be afraid to try something unconventional like this. Simple defense for this lineup move: put the two guys with the best on base skills in front of the guys with the skills to drive them in.
Now, if Butler ever does improve his slugging percentage, or the Royals acquire another player with similar or better on base skills, then by all means move him back to the middle of the order.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
this made think...
would changing these guys’ places in the lineup, would it alter the way they bat, and thus alter the specific skills they have?
or are we all in agreement that a player hits the way he hits regardless?
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by PhattStairs on May 31, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
yes, Billy would lay down a lot more bunts to get on
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on May 31, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Long live Butler
One of the things that makes Butler so valuable is the fact that the Royals have him thru 2015 at a good price. That deal is club friendly even if Butler doesn’t find his HR stroke. A small market team can not trade a cost controlled player who they know can provide value for either a prospect or a high priced pitcher. Jim as for trading him for an average 2B, who do you have in mind who can produce at the plate, play good defense and is cost controlled thru 2015? Because Butler may not be a great defender but we know what we will get at the plate for the next few years and unless we get more than that back than why trade him?
I like most of your post Jim, I just think you are a little down on Butler in his current deal. Either that or you are unrealistic in what we will get back for Butler.
by usethejon on May 31, 2011 10:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I like most of your post Jim, I just think you are a little down on Butler in his current deal. Either that or you are unrealistic in what we will get back for Butler.
I’m not down on Butler, actually like him and appreciate what he has done for the team, and do not wish him to be just given away. I do think that, at the moment, he probably has the most trade value of the veterans on the team and that the team can replace his production more easily than they could Greinke’s. I’ve suggested what I consider Billy’s trade value, which is a competent 2B, and a couple of A ball prospects. Is that too much to expect or too little? I don’t expect a haul like for Greinke, but if we could get a Cain who plays 2B and an Odorizzi for Butler I think we should take it. If all we can get is SOS and Mazzaro, by all means keep Butler, who is probably worth more to the Royals than he is to other teams.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Job
and stole a little of my thunder. I have a piece scheduled for Fangraphs for tomorrow looking at this very subject. I figured out his possible trade value and the results were rather surprising (and damn base running addition to UBR).
Also, I am just finishing a piece for here on what the aging curve for Billy (youngish, high doubles, no speed) may look like (running tomorrow). Results are encouraging.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 31, 2011 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Butler may be a few years from his peak
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 31, 2011 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
so, he could get a little faster before he gets slower?
is that possible (either in a physical or metaphysical sense)?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Well
I hope Billy uses one of his 2.9 WARs soon to keep the Royalsout of the basement. They have rounded into form and seem fully intent on catching the Twins. Dear Ned, idea, one man starting rotation of Tim Collins. Save you the strain of figuring out when to bring him in every day.
The whole picture here is fairly ridiculous
Of course we need starting pitching, we all knew that to start the year. I don’t know why we suddenly need to scramble to find some right now. Is it because we are doing a little better than expected? And now we’re slipping below the dreaded .500, like that wasn’t going to happen eventually. Sure this past week and a half has been a heartbreaker, but you know, even with our crappy SP, if Soria had been Soria his last three save ops we’d be at 26-27. To think that trading our one proven hitter and on base machine will help us out any in the long run is just…well, nonsense at this point.
by Prime2U on May 31, 2011 11:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
well, nonsense at this point.
You wouldn’t trade Butler even up for Duffy at this point? Or a Hosmer? Or Hellickson? What do you think fair value for Butler would be right now?
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't trade Butler
For a pitcher with a 3.6 ERA to replace my 4.8 ERA pitcher every 4-5 days.
If somebody had a young 2b with some defensive ability and that could hit like Billy, I’d be all over it. But the chances of someone trading a guy like that for Billy are virtually none. I don’t want an average 2b, I already have two of those. So basically, at least for now, I wouldn’t trade him.
by Prime2U on May 31, 2011 1:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But the chances of someone trading a guy like that for Billy are virtually none.
Agree. The market sets the value.
“I don’t want an average 2b, I already have two of those.”
You consider Getz and Aviles to be average 2B?
“So basically, at least for now, I wouldn’t trade him.”
You’re probably right. Butler has more value to the Royals than to any other team at the moment and maybe in the future.
“For a pitcher with a 3.6 ERA to replace my 4.8 ERA pitcher every 4-5 days.”
At the moment I would take the 3.6 over a 7.5 every fifth day, but doubt we could get a young version of that pitcher for Billy, so we’re probably stuck with Billy, our highest value trade chip, so need to look elsewhere for a 2B or C upgrade and some reloads for the minors.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
You consider Getz and Aviles to be average 2B?
Aviles is. Getz is not.
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by Scott McKinney on May 31, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Aviles is. Getz is not.
Agree that Getz isn’t, but still don’t see Aviles’ superiority this year. I’m thinking more in terms of a .270 BA with the ability to hit RHP and LHP, take a walk, some speed, and good fielding. Rey Navarro is the closest we have in the system and he’s a few years off. If all that Billy is worth is Aviles with SOS and Mazzaro thrown in, keep Billy.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Aviles is a strange player...
IMO he should be a perfect fit for 2B…his dad was a baller, he (used to) carries himself well, and hits for power and does actually steal bases when he isn’t getting picked off…and he is competent enough for me to play 2B everyday (eye test only, I’m sure the stats would slam me on this one)
Aviles is a useful player…I carry him on my fantasy team (in a 10 team league!) for his position availability and ability to hit for power and steal bases while not hurting me on average…I think this in itself says something
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Aviles isn’t “superior,” but he certainly appears average. I think his defense and hitting are both approximately average for a MLB 2B.
And Navarro isn’t the closest we have in the system. Christian Colon is the most likely 2B of the future for the Royals, unless Escobar’s hitting doesn’t improve any.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Christian Colon needs to prove he can hit AA pitching first
no evidence for that yet
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear you
I still think he’s more likely to play 2B for the Royals than little Rey Navarro.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I consider Aviles when he's playing as he has
In the past, to be an ave 2b. I consider Getz as he’s played the last couple of weeks to be an ave 2b. I imagine Getz, once baserunning and defense are factored in, will be a little below ave. Not far enough below that an upgrade to average would be worth losing Billy though.
by Prime2U on May 31, 2011 3:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In the past, to be an ave 2b.
And Soria a lock down closer? Maybe 2B is a weaker position than I thought league-wide if Aviles and Getz are average. I consider them both to be weaknesses on the current team. Not like either hits like Betamit, or even much better than Escobar, and neither fields like Escobar. And not like we have a likely upgrade for either in AA or AAA.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say a good rangy 2b
With some defensive talent and the ability to hit well is pretty scarce right now. Colon has a shot at being one if his bat comes around. If a Ryne Sandburg clone comes along and they want to trade Billy for him, by all means go for it, but right now from what I’ve seen when a team gets a good one they play him and hang on to him.
by Prime2U on May 31, 2011 4:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
So,
if a significant upgrade at 2B is unlikely and we won’t be able to get even half of a Greinke-sized haul in return, then we are probably stuck with Billy and need to find some other way to upgrade the three major weaknesses; SP, C, and 2B. Possibilities in-house for the pitchers, but Navarro and Sal Perez are a few years off. All of this ends up answering the question of what Billy is worth on the market, which is apparently less than half what Greinke was worth, as we got two premium defensive positions, a fairly major prospect in Odorizzi, and a possible useful pitcher in Jeffress in return for Zack. I appreciate the input.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Did anyone here really every say that Butler was as valuable as Greinke in a trade though?
I think that is the opinion that we are actually trying to combat for the first place, let alone trying to re-state that Butler’s future value is much higher than his current value.
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
Just
trying to establish his value in the trade market, see if his wOBA and WAR translate to getting quality players for now or the future. What do you think a reasonable return for Butler would be, one that would be offered and should be taken? Others have suggested that we couldn’t get a 2B better than Aviles for him, which is one of our three major needs. Someone offered that we couldn’t get a good starter for him. Is getting a catcher who can both field and hit just a dream?
There seems to be a consensus evolving that trading Butler wouldn’t bring much of a return, so he’s more valuable to keep than to trade. After all the discussions, I agree with that. Now all we need to do is figure out another way to plug the obvious holes in the team, as Soria’s value has tanked and we won’t get a great haul in the coming trade fair for Betamit, Frenchy, Melky, or even Francis or Chen. That leaves Gordon as probably the most valuable trade chip, but his historical numbers, in spite of his current good year, probably won’t bring much. So we cross our fingers and hope that the young lefties light up, that Giavotella learns to hit righties, and that Sal Perez will be here next year some time.
by Jim Fetterolf on May 31, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Others have suggested that we couldn’t get a 2B better than Aviles for him, which is one of our three major needs.
A lot of that is circumspect to how valuable you believe Aviles to be. Is Aviles the 4.4 WAR player he was in his rookie year? Probably not. Is he the 1.6 WAR player that he was last year? I would say the answer is somewhere in-between, but closer to the 2.0-2.5 end as an everyday player.
And yes, I think you could get a 2B better than Aviles for Butler, but why would you want to right now, in a season where it wouldn’t matter, and the possibility still exists for Butler to improve and his already exceptional performance?
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The starting pitching
First of all – I am not in the “trade Butler” camp.
That being said, I think the reason people are so alarmed right now about the future starting pitching has more to do with the realization that there are not enough answers in the minors right now. Montgomery struggling, Lamb may be seriously hurt, and Dwyer appears to be struggling even more than Monty. Sure, there are prospects below AA who look promising – but I think everyone is coming to the realization that Scott McKinney has been harping on for quite a while now – MOST prospects fail, and our system, while excellent, may STILL not be enough to solve all the problems with this organization.
Duffy & Hosmer offer some vindication for the system, for sure – but overall, the system is having a FAR worse year this season than it did last season, and that’s just depressing, because it means Moore will have to more shrewd than most think he is capable of, and Glass will have to spend more money than most think he is willing to.
Shit.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I can see people getting anxious if the think
We will be ready to seriously contend in 2012. Personally, while I think we’ll be a lot better next year, I don’t expect the team to be ready to make a big push deep in the playoffs yet. That’s looking like 2013. And I think by 2013 we’ll be able to put at least 4 good starters out there, may have to look for one FA, and depending on what comes from the draft this year, might have to trade for one. But I don’t see the need to make questionable moves to try to fill a spot this year, it won’t help us enough to really matter regardless.
by Prime2U on May 31, 2011 3:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But Rany picked us to win the division in 2012 already.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Butler
Billy Butler is a career .320 hitter with RISP.
Yeah, he grounds out too much and doesn’t hit enough homers, but let’s realize that he’s only 25, most players are just starting by that age.
I would consider a deal for Butler, but only for a Matt Cain type, proven starter.
In the long-term, maybe
In the short-term (i.e. this season or next) no
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No trade with a National League team
Because The Baconator isn’t a worthy fielder, he effectively cuts our trade options in the baseball world in half. We can only trade to an AL team. And how many AL teams are looking for a DH? About zero. The DH spot is the easiest to fill for a team.
Can you think of any AL team who is just itching for a DH and is willing to give up a good pitcher for it? Not a chance.
Billy Butler is basically untradeable, unless its for a bag of balls.
Can you think of any AL team who is just itching for a DH and is willing to give up a good pitcher for it?
The A’s and Mariners come to mind. Whether or not they would give up an ML-ready pitcher is really the question, which is highly suspect.
Also, I don’t necessarily think that every NL team is out of the question, since most of them field sub-par 1B in the first place. The Giants and the Braves may be possible teams.
Team interest in Billy Butler probably isn’t the overriding factor in whether or not a trade could be made. I think the bigger issue is what teams would offer in return, which probably A)wouldn’t suit the team’s expectations of a return and B)wouldn’t suit the fanbase’s expectations of a return.
Another overriding factor is the fact that, despite the fact that he is a fourth-year starter, is that he is still a developing player. His expected peak is still two years away from beginning.
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by JKWard on Jun 1, 2011 3:08 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
^this
If Billy peaks anything like where we all predict/ hope he will, there will be plenty of people interested in him for a DH or maybe even 1b. There just aren’t that many pure hitters out there, and a .900+ OPS and .310-.330 BA will make a lot of teams drool, especially if they need a piece to really help them contend. That will be the time to decide if there’s a piece we really need, or if Billy’s bat is the best thing to help US contend.
by Prime2U on Jun 1, 2011 8:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Its funny how I made the argument of Butler being an underwhelming and overrated player
Next thing I know a few days later there is a fanpost with 125 comments lol.
Butler is nice player but disappointing. He’s making 30 million dollars to play DH and hit with zero power.
Here are some stats that you sabermetric lunatics should be able to relate to. Since the day Betemit put on a Royals uniform HE HAS BEEN BETTER PLAYER THAN BUTLER WITH A HIGHER OPS, an ability to actually play in the field at a FRACTION of the cost. According to how lineups have always been structured in the AL, Designated Hitters are supposed to have a higher slugging % since they usually cannot run and do not have to play the field. Butler doesn’t have power; instead he leads the league in grounded into double plays.
I like Butler and he’s a nice player. To argue he’s going to be a superstar power hitter and will ascend when his best year was 2 years ago is faulty at best, dreaming at worst .I wish he had more upside, but he hit for more power before he learned how to be a high OBP guy (his most homeruns in 2009 came when his K/BB ration was 2 to 1)
Butlers one great skill is the ability to draw walks, but what is more valuable in terms of WAR. Butler’s career OBP with lack of speed and susceptibility to hit into a DP or Jose Reyes lower career OBP with great speed, more power (for a lead off guy playing Shortstop!!) who never hits into DP’s and puts constant pressure on pitchers with his base running?
from 06-08 when Reyes was 23-25 years old he averaged over a 6.0 WAR making LESS MONEY than Butler will over the next few, Butler can’t even crack a 3.0 WAR and is now costing the Royals 30 million to play a position traditionally played by actually hit for power.
Everyone here defending him until they are blue into the face should look at his numbers across the board. We should keep him because the Royals could use a high OBP (even though it’s at he wrong position and his lack of speed and propensity for the DP groundout (lead the league with 32 last year) limits his OBP skill and he’s not a bargain, nor is he the Royals best batter as Hosmer who is almost 4 years younger and already a higher OPS)
So you're saying Reyes is better than Butler?
Uh yeah. Other than that, the rest of your post was pretty much nonsense. Are you familiar with WAR and the dollar value of WAR? That should tell you something about whether Butler is a bargain or not. If you’d like some deeper analysis of Butler’s value, read this.
Basically it seems like your millimeter-thin argument is “but he’s not a power hitter!!!!!!!!!! And a DH has to be a very good power hitter!!!!!!!!” You are wildly oversimplifying to say the very least.
And, BTW, given total offensive value, defense and position, Butler has been better than Betemit from 2010-2011. While Betemit “plays a position in the field,” he’s horrendous and that really hurts his value. Sure he stands out there in the field, but in doing so, he hurts his team.
We’re not defending Butler until we are blue in the face. We are accurately describing his performance, production and value. And some people, like you, respond with “but he’s not a power hitter!!!!!!!!” Please look deeper. Or just have the good sense to keep quiet.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Quite
On the contrary you are completely overanalyzing something that should be overly simplified to begin with. The most important thing Butler needs to do as a DH, considering that he cannot even play the field, has no speed, consistently hits in double plays IS HIT FOR POWER, but he doesn’t hit for power and it not only limits his value as a DH it put the Royals in a conundrum that negates your argument. Just follow:
Betemit has been as good as Butler AS A DH, which dismisses his defense as a component of WAR (how conveniently you bring up his horrendous play in the field as a negative when Butler at 25 isn’t even “horrendous” enough the Royals will even allow him to play in the field) You simply can’t factor in Butler’s lack of a position because ANYONE ON THE TEAM can become its designated hitter and unfortunately Butler has forced the Royals hand in playing him there because he cannot play the field. Its not a coincidence better teams in baseball have an older, more expensive “power hitter” as a DH with a higher slugging % and a higher WAR than Butler because those other teams’ top prospects can actually hit for power and play a position; Bulter can do neither! Add in his best power numbers from several years ago (when his BB/K ration was MUCH worse than it is now) and he’s receding as a power hitter, which is a scary sign for an overweight 25 year old.
I like Butler, and this isn’t an exercise to pile dirt on him, but if you want to objectively look at his performance taking everything into account, how can you even look at his cost, when he’s under team control based on a collective bargaining agreement? Every single team has this advantage of inking young players to team friendly contracts so lets look compare Butler in context of that framework, not with some random FA DH. It just doesn’t make sense. So Joe Mauer was a bargain a few years ago making 400k with a WAR worth 23 million or whatever? No shit, Yeah lets compare his performance to a random FA catcher making 10 million. What a waste of time. Comparing a FA with a player under control under different economics is comparing apples and oranges.
Tell me this, if Butler has quite a bit of value as you claim, how does Betemit with a higher OPS and the same WAR at a FRACTION of the price of Butler have even less? Logic at its finest. Just because the Royals have one of the worst fielding players in baseball (Butler) and aren’t affording Betemit the chance to strengthen his WAR by NOT forcing him to play in the field when he was finally given a chance hit in the lineup (keep in mind I brought this to everyone’s attention the day he was promoted last year that he would be one of our best offensive players), you can’t reallyr argue Butler has a higher WAR because of Betemit’s defense. Put Butler at 3B and let Betemit DH full time and see what happens. The Royals save millions.
Comparing him to a FA isn’t all that terrible either ironically – Matsui and Guerrero, and if Adam Dunn can gravitate to his career .900 OPS (.380 OBP/.520 SL% split) and if Bautista continues his hot trend their multi year deals should be viewed as team friendly as Butler’s 5 year team cost controlled deal because even if can’t bargain for a fair wage. However, there are plenty of young players under team control who inked team friendly contracts that were similar to the deal Butler signed and have higher WARS, play in the field, and are just better players. Longoria, Braun and Tulowitski to name a few.
Butler’s deal is not great and a total waste of money if Betemit would have been signed through 2015 at half the price of Butler and perform at the same level. This takes into account the Royals having a different young prospect at Butlers level at a different position*
The Royals tried to use an owner’s advantage in MLB – the limitation of collective bargaining rights for lower tenured players – to exploit Butler, but it’s only a fair deal for them, because he’s a bad fit as a DH, unlike Tampa, Milwaukee and Colorado making out like bandits for signing their star players under the same economic parameters.
So its more than “he’s not a power hitter.” It’s a better argument, one you make not agree with but you should at least see the plausibility of it.
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 2, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting piece
by Jeff Zimmerman on the subject of trading Billy:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/proposed-trade-billy-butler-to-the-rays/
Includes looking at a possible trade partner and trade value.
I would like to re hash the Butler to Rays proposal
Hellickson is already pitching like a star and Moore dominates every level he is at. If the Royals even asked for ONE of them, Rays would just send them to voice mail for good.
Under construction
I think that's why the article puts emphasis on Torres, Colome, Thompson and Cobb
As the more likely trade candidates to be involved.
Although I wouldn’t say a trade for Matt Moore is out of the question, but it would probably involve multiple pieces from each team in the deal.
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