How Kila Ka'aihue helps explain the compounding error of SSS.

Just a short blurb to show two things
1) Applying a small streak to a small sample can radically change the inference of a statistic
2) It is way too early to make any sort of judgement on Kila's performance this year.

Kila is hitting a horrible .195/.295/.317 line this season. Obviously, he is struggling and a good many people are ready to give up on him. However, over his last 8 games, Kila is hitting a fairly mediocre .276/.344/.448 for a 1B. This has raised his BA almost 50 points, his OBP 25 points, and his SLG 72 points.

If Kila were to repeat the best 8 game stretch of his career, Kila would be hitting .232/.317/.464 on the year and we would be praising his rebound and high effort character.

If you were to remove his worst 8 game stretch of this season, Kila would be hitting .245/.344/.433 on the year and we would be disappointed, but probably not having the send Kila down discussion.

A change of just 8 games can make a pretty drastic change on a how one interprets a player's season when it is this early. It is probably too early to make any real judgement on the guy one way or another.

Interesting side note: If Kila were to repeat his best 8 game streak, it would increase his CAREER OPS 50 points. That's pretty dramatic.

Interesting side note #2: Kila has never been hit by a pitch in his MLB career. Kendall thinks he's weak.

about 1 year ago dejackso 5 comments 1 recs |

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nah, why be rational and logical about it

lets just burn him alive and never look back

by Freneau on May 5, 2011 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

Heh.

If I had some extra time, I might try to run a PCA or MDS plot of Kila’s success versus the type of pitch thrown. It might be interesting to see how true the whole “Kila can’t hit a breaking ball” might be.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 5, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you know?

Does anybody have split data for balls in play vs pitch type?

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 5, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

And burn a year of Hosmer's service time while we're at it

So much for Moore handling prospects wisely.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Here is an MDS plot of Kila's approach per pitch type

This is based on four variables (ball rate, whiff rate, foul rate, and in play rate)
I’m not 100% sure to what the two dimensions actually correlate, although, the primary component indicates whiff rate. The interesting thing is that three off-speed pitches lump together pretty closely (change, curve, slider) which indicates that Kila has similar results with those three pitches.

You can pretty much ignore the two outliers (Split and Knuckler) as he has faced both pitches fewer than 20 times in his career.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 5, 2011 5:59 PM EDT reply actions