Best farm system ever having a bad year?
by kcdc1 on Jun 1, 2011 10:05 AM EDT
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PrintIt seems to me that there's a general sense around this community that the farm system was over-hyped last off-season and has disappointed. Let's take a quick look at RR's Top 10 and how they've moved their status as prospects with their performance so far this season.
1. Wil Myers-C/OF -- Hasn't played much, but no long-term injuries. Unchanged.
2. Eric Hosmer-1B -- Went from great AA prospect to very good MLB player almost instantly. Big upgrade.
3. Mike Moustakas-3B -- Started slow, but numbers up to .280/.350./.500. Good player playing well. Unchanged.
4. Mike Montgomery-LHP -- Has had control problems, but reports are that he still projects well. Downgrade.
5. John Lamb--LHP -- Tommy John. Downgrade.
6. Chris Dwyer--LHP -- Can't throw strikes or get outs. Still throws hard but has history of control problems. Big downgrade.
7. Dan Duffy-LHP -- Lights out in AAA and throwing 95 MPH in Big Leagues. Big upgrade.
8. Jake Odorizzi-RHP -- Terror of the Midwest League with 12.73 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Upgrade.
9. Christian Colon-SS/2B -- Can't hit. Big downgrade.
10. Aaron Crow-RHP -- Went from unable to get minor league hitters out to Major League closer with sub-2.00 ERA. Future as a starter in doubt, whether as a starter or reliever, his future seems brighter by far than it did a last fall. Big upgrade.
So that's 3 big upgrades, 1 upgrade, 2 unchanged, 2 downgrades, and 2 big downgrades. Of the Top 10, 4 have done better than I'd expected, 4 have look worse, and 2 haven't moved much. Against (my) expectations, this year has actually been pretty fair. But there are more than 10 prospects worth discussing, and I expect many will disagree with my characterizations above. Discuss!
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Slightly disagree with Myers and Moose.
Seems like I’ve read a few more things questioning Moose’s defense this year than I did last year.
Myers is basically just because he hasn’t played much and was striking out quite a bit without much power. Way too early to make a determination one way or the other but for the #1 prospect it has to be a small downgrade.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Agreed on Myers.
If Lamb is being downgraded for Tommy John surgery, Myers should be taken down a bit (though obviously not as much) as well. When IS Wil the Thril coming back?
Myers doesn't take a hit for his injuries because they're non-issues going forward
With Lamb, you question whether he’ll ever be the same, but Myers just got some cuts and bruises and an infection. He’s going to be at full strength within a week or two.
As for docking his performance, he’s only played 20 games and he hasn’t really hit badly. He’s struck out some, but that’s to be expected with injuries preventing him from getting his timing down, and he hasn’t hit as many doubles as you’d like. But it’s 20 games, and he’s actually been pretty solid in those games for a 20 year old in AA learning a new position. My expectations for Myers haven’t shifted at all.
More on Moose
it’s worth noting that an .850 OPS just isn’t all that impressive in the PCL, and that it’s not just the numbers: there reportedly has been more than one negative comment from scouts about his hitting, too.
Not saying he sucks, but compared to last years euphoria (based mostly on ~300 PA in AA), there has to be a downgrade.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My expectations for Moose might have been lower than some coming into the year. I thought he’d be a moderate OBP hitter with good power and slightly below average defense at 3B. He’s actually done a little better than I’d expected.
Do you mean moderate OBP in the majors or in the minors
even with the improvement this season in his walk rate, he projects as having a pretty crappy OBP in the majors.
To me, it seems at this point to have good value in the majors Moose has to a) hit for power, and b) play somewhere of the neighborhood of average defense at third.
I think that can happen, but it’s not a done deal, especially if he has trouble maintaining a .320 OBP in the majors.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Coming into the season, I was thinking Moose would be something like a .265/.320/.480 hitter with slightly below average defense at 3B. That’s not a super-star, but it’s a 3 WAR player. His performance in AAA is roughly in line with what I expected, but maybe everyone else was hoping for more.
I think that kind of power is kind of pushing it for right now
he’s got power, but while he’s been in HR-friendly parks in AA and AAA, the one thing Kauffman suppresses is home runs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe.
You also have to remember that Moose will likely make the Majors before his 23rd birthday. The 30+ HR power that he’s showing in the minors might not translate to the K right away, but he’ll have some time to work it out. If he doesn’t have at least 20 HR power, his value is going to take a big hit.
that and
I would not be surprised if the hitting coach who brought you “just spray the ball to left, Mike Jacobs” in late 2009 would bring us “just spray the ball to left, Mike Moustakas” if Moustakas struggles in KC.
I’m sure there is a merit to opposite field hitting with a LHB, but if your game is hitting for power and not much else, it seems counterproductive to dilute that.
Moustakas should be able to destroy the net though.
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Unfair to other farm systems
Even if they were all downgrades, the Royals’ system still kicks everyone else’s ass.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 1, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Hosmer is legit
I am excited to see how soon he makes the all-star team
Dwyer
Having strike problems, but that was always his problem. His last outing wasn’t bad until he was pulled and the bullpen proceeded to allow all his inherited runners to score. He pitched I think 4-5 innings of no-hit ball.
Nice post
but in addition to my comment on Moustakas above, I think going from a potential mid-rotation start for Crow to a closer with platoon issues is more accurately characterized as a parallel move.
At some point, we need to discuss the dearth of promising future middle infielders in the system at any level from AA to the majors.Escobar might be a bit above average if his bat regresses a lot and he’s legitimately the best fielding SS in baseball, but that’s not that exciting. Aviles is the only other one resembling average, and he’s 30.
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Escobar's going to be interesting to watch in regards to fan perception.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
His Web Gems will help a lot
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
That's partially what has me intrigued, is the fanbase going to be so awed by that
where anything his bat does gets overshadowed by them.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
its gonna directly correlate with the team winning percentage
if we win , its “you need a great defensive SS, he saves 10 runs a game”
if we lose, “he can’t hit”
Wow.
You just predicted today’s postgame show exactly. Yost’s actual quote was actually something like “he saved us four runs right there… that’s a good as scoring four runs.” And there was also a “his runs are in his glove” thrown in at some point.
and
“if he plays like he does in the field, he can hit .100”
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Re: Crow's platoon issues
I’m not sold. It’s such a small sample, and he’s almost certain to work on a third pitch before next season.
How's he going to work on it? And should we think that work will be effective?
Can he or any pitcher effectively improve a pitch when he’s not throwing it in games? I mean anything is possible, but I think we should recognize that it is very unlikely.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Crow going from High-A SP prospect to MLB closer
I don’t think that’s a parallel move at all. Remember that even very good SP prospects only succeed about 20% of the time, and Crow was not considered a very good SP prospect after last season. He’s now proven that he can get MLB hitters out which is a HUGE boost to his stock on its own.
Think of it this way—last year, he failed in AA and didn’t exactly shine in High-A. Before this season, I’d have given Crow maybe a 10-20% probability to be a successful MLB starter and a 30-50% chance to be a successful MLB reliever. After the last 2 months of showing that he can get MLB hitters out consistently, I’d give him a 30-50% chance of being capable of success as a starter and 80+% chance of success as a reliever.
Is Crow even a closer? Yes, at the moment, but for how long?
Remember that even very good SP prospects only succeed about 20% of the time
And non-closer relievers (and many closers) usually don’t manage 1.5 WAR per season. I think Matt’s point was that while Crow’s floor has gone up, his ceiling has dropped precipitously.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Does it matter if he's a closer?
If he’s not a closer, then he’s the fireman, which is probably better anyway. If he’s a reliever, then he’ll be a good but not great player. I think our expectations for Crow as a starter should have actually improved now that he’s shown that he can get MLB hitters out. That’s a huge barrier that most pitchers never cross.
It affects his value
No reliever in MLB is used as a true “fireman.” A closer is going to get higher leverage appearances overall, over the course of a season.
If he’s a reliever, then he’ll be a good but not great player
But given how little relievers actually play, even with leverage taken into account, a good reliever (especially if not an elite closer) usually contributes about as much as a below average position player or a #4 SP.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t get me wrong, I’m hoping they try Crow as a starter. I hope they encourage him to throw his curve more as the season continues, and that he polishes it and develops a workable change-up this off-season and next spring.
But if Crow is a reliever, I don’t care if he’s a closer or the guy they bring in to clean up messes and against the heart of the order. They’re about equally valuable roles, in my opinion.
As for whether Crow is used as a starter or a reliever, I don’t think that’s the critical issue when evaluating Crow. That decision is on the FO, and has nothing to do with Crow’s ability. A starter is much more valuable than a reliever, but Crow’s season so far has actually improved my expectations for him as a starter. Prior to this season, I wasn’t sure Crow could get AA hitters out—much less MLB hitters. Now that Crow has proven his stuff and control against MLB hitters, my expectations for him are much higher.
As for whether Crow is used as a starter or a reliever, I don’t think that’s the critical issue when evaluating Crow. That decision is on the FO, and has nothing to do with Crow’s ability
But his value is more important than his ability.
A starter is much more valuable than a reliever, but Crow’s season so far has actually improved my expectations for him as a starter
It has vastly decreased my expectations for him as a starter, because I think they’ve determined what he is and what he’s going to be as a Royal. And if they use him like this, he won’t be able to improve what he needs to improve in order to potentially become a decent starter. Like it or not, the Royals made a decision which might make him a very good reliever, but nixes his potential as any kind of starter.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
This
For pitchers, major league success is an improvement over any level of prospect status.
True, but...
There is a real downside in giving up on a player’s upside potential. I don’t want to get back into the argument over the Royals choice with regard to Crow. But looking at it in the abstract, when you take a pitching prospect who had the potential to be a 2-3 WAR mid-rotation SP and make him a 1-2 WAR reliever, you’ve lost some potential there. One the one hand you can say that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. But on the other hand, teams like the Royals can’t just go out and buy a bunch mid-rotation-quality SP’s. So giving up on potential can really hurt.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know much about player development
So I don’t really understand why working in the bullpen now forecloses the possibility of starting in future years. It seems to me that MLB pitchers learn new pitches all the time, and I thought that was what was holding back Crow.
Regardless of that, prospect status is a combination of floor, ceiling and central tendency, and I think your work was great at illustrating that, even for the top pitching prospects, the central tendency is complete failure at the MLB level. Even if the Royals are sacrficing his chance at starting, it’s hard to see how this year could be considered a downgrade for his performance.
for the record
I personally said it was more of a “parallel move” than a downgrade. Maybe he’s more valuable than he would have turned out to be as a starter, since he wasn’t doing so great. On the other hand, relievers just aren’t all that valuable.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right
I’m sorry for mis-stating your point, and it narrows the gap between us, but I’d still like to stick with what I said. The typical top minor league pitcher can reasonably be expected to accomplish nothing at the MLB level. The fact that Crow is accomplishing something has to be considered an upgrade.
By that logic
Wouldn’t it also be true that if any top SP prospect were promoted to the majors and put in the bullpen and succeeded as a middle reliever, that would be an upgrade? If the Royals had done that with Duffy or Montgomery, would it also have been an upgrade? What if the Angels did that with Trout or the Braves did it with Teheran? They would be accomplishing something in the majors (albeit not very much in the scheme of things). Would that be an upgrade over their ace potential?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be an upgrade over their top-level prospect status
I’m not understanding the question on Trout (isn’t he a centerfielder?), but for the rest of the guys, it seems obvious that the answer is yes. Going to the bullpen at the start of a career doesn’t eliminate the possibility of starting later on (didn’t the Royals used to bring their pitching prospects this way in the 1980s?), but even if it did … well, I feel weird saying this to you because it’s entirely based on your study … a ten-dollar bill is worth more than a lottery ticket. It’s an upgrade.
Yeah, Trout was a screw up. But my point is that it very often doesn’t make sense for teams to give up lottery tickets in exchange for ten-dollar bills. Certainty of a low level of production is not necessarily better for a team than the possibility of a high level of production. For instance, would you trade a top pitching prospect for good, cheap, reliable MLB middle reliever?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we're saying two slightly different things
I’m saying that Crow this year (a successful MLB reliever / $10 bill) is an upgrade over Crow last year (a high-level pitching prospect / lottery ticket).
I think you’re saying that you can’t develop a team without playing the lottery. Starting pitching has to come from somewhere, and for a team like the Royals, that’s largely the minor leagues.
So, in answer to your question, yes, I would trade Jake Odorizzi (or our best pitching prospect at this point) for Mike Adams (assuming he was signed to a cost-controlled contract for several years), but I’d only do that trade once or twice. I realize that you can’t build a whole team that way.
I guess we just have different philosophies
The way to develop one good SP in the majors is to work your ass off developing 10 (or 50) good SP prospects. Trading good SP potential for the fairly small value of a cheap, reliable middle reliever is a good way to build a 75-win team. Trading off high-upside guys for low-upside role players prevents teams from getting over the top. Now that might work for a good, high-revenue team like the Yankees who can go out and buy aces as needed. But most teams (and certainly the Royals) don’t have that luxury.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think that is the same
earlier you said Crow had the potential to be a “mid-rotation starter” which is much different than ace potential. Crow is older than most of our pitching prospects and had a bad year last year. Turning a 24 year old 2nd tier starting pitching prospect coming off a bad year into a very good, near dominate reliever (possibly closer) is an upgrade. Most starting pitching prospects fail, like you said, and his struggles made it even more likely. Ill take the 1-2 WAR from the bullpen over the 2-3 WAR as a SP that we probably werent going to get. That is a definite upgrade.
At this point, though, after Crows dominance this year, the circumstances have changed a bit. He has shown that he can get hitters out and has shown what made him a good SP prospect in the first place. If the Royals decide to try him as a starter later this year or next, I wouldnt be upset… I would be very anxious to see if his success carried over. However, I’m not going to sit here and fault the Royals for turning a question mark 24 year old prospect into a very useful reliever.
“Wouldn’t it also be true that if any top SP prospect were promoted to the majors and put in the bullpen and succeeded as a middle reliever, that would be an upgrade? "
Yes, a big upgrade.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jun 2, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
it's not a big deal, it's the internet
pretty sure I’m going to get sued by Ke$ha’s lawyers whichever it was
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
So I don’t really understand why working in the bullpen now forecloses the possibility of starting in future years
It depends on what the pitcher needs to improve. If he needs to trust his fastball and use it more, then a bullpen stint can help. But if your biggest problem is your third and fourth pitch, then the bullpen isn’t going to help that all because a reliever is going to just throw his best pitches. In Crow’s case, he’s throwing only two pitches the vast majority of the time. And you improve a pitch by throwing it in games. Working on it in side sessions and in the offseason just isn’t enough. Those pitches are going to stagnate, or even get worse as he’s throwing them much less than he ever has before.
. It seems to me that MLB pitchers learn new pitches all the time, and I thought that was what was holding back Crow.
Sure a pitcher can learn a new pitch, but it’s never going to become decent if he doesn’t use it much in actual games. It’s also easier to learn a new pitch when it is just a refinement of a pitch the pitcher the already throws well. (like a adding a cutter to a 4-seam FB or adding a hard curveball when the pitcher already throws a slow curveball.)
Even if the Royals are sacrficing his chance at starting, it’s hard to see how this year could be considered a downgrade for his performance.
I don’t think it is a downgrade. I’m just pointing out that even with success in his new role in the majors, there’s also a downside to moving him to the bullpen.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
This is good information on prospect development
I thought that, back when we were good at developing pitchers (1970s/80s), we brought guys up to the bullpen first. Maybe I misremembered that. Anyway, I’d hope that the Royals remember that this is a lost season and encourage Crow to throw his third and fourth pitches even in the bullpen. I don’t care if we lose 100 if it positions us better for 2013. I’m not saying that’s likely; I’m just saying I’d hope it were true.
I thought that, back when we were good at developing pitchers (1970s/80s), we brought guys up to the bullpen first. Maybe I misremembered that
Yes, sometimes teams do that, and sometimes it works. Of course there is always the question of whether it worked because the player was developed in that way or in spite of it. And also it depends a lot on the prospect in question and what he needs to work on. Johann Santana spent a lot of time in the Twins bullpen and eventually became a good MLB starter. But he had multiple good pitches to star with. He didn’t need to work on his secondary pitches like most SP prospects do. Most thought he was ready to be a MLB starter long before the Twins finally put him in that role full-time.
Anyway, I’d hope that the Royals remember that this is a lost season and encourage Crow to throw his third and fourth pitches even in the bullpen
I agree, but I think the Royals see him as a reliever. And regardless, they want him to succeed when he pitches, which means he’d have to throw his best two pitches and not the other two. And if they cared more about his development as a SP than his immediate success as a MLB reliever, he’d be starting in the minors. I really think they’ve already made their choice with regard to Crow.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I don't think the Royals minor league system is having a bad year
Nor would I say the Royals top 10 prospecs, overall, are having a bad year. The results have been mixed. Not every good prospect is going to take a step forward every year. And, of course, there haven’t even been two full months of the minor league season yet. There’s still time for the sytem’s 2011 season to get a lot better or worse.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yep, that's the point I wanted to make with this post
If you expect every prospect to become a star, then yes, this year has been very disappointing.
I think this year is also suffering by comparison to last year. Last year, nearly every decent Royals prospect took a big step forward. 2011 is more like a normal season in which some improve, some get worse and some stall out.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 1, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Who needs those guys anyway
Cuthbert, Arguellas, Adam, the suddenly potent Navarro—the Process is all about 2016 anyway.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jun 1, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Yup
“I want you to be here when the winning starts.”
—Dayton Moore to Gil Meche
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
You left out the important part
"I want you to be here when the winning starts. So let’s get started on that pitching coach contract. Start date will be 2019, right?"
—Dayton Moore to Gil Meche
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 1, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
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