A Zany Theory on Joaqim Soria's 2011 Demise

I have a theory that I believe predicted Joaqim Soria's downturn in production this year.  This particular theory is not one to be taken lightly.  It is highly scientific made-up, and as soon as this theory is released upon those standing pat in today's world gone mad baseball community, the ushers of a new dawn of physics fantasy sports will surely race to impregnate Mensa the blogosphere with it, not unlike a one Mark LaFlamme's Bender Argument.

Playing fantasy sports from year to year, a feel for "up" years and "down" years is acquired.  Most fantasy die-hards rely on age-related statistics to give them competitive edge, others use "gut" instincts to draft players they think will explode, much unlike a one Ross Gload.  Are these "gut" instincts truly intrinsic, or do we recognize submersed cranial data that we submissively pull out when nature calls? 

The book How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer is probably a good start for this question, particularly the first chapter detailing a Navy radar technician's decision to gun down a radar blip that could have been an enemy missile or a friendly aircraft.  The eventual months-long findings are stunning.  Unbeknownst to all involved, including said naval officer, the radar blip of an enemy missile and the radar blip of a friendly aircraft are minutely different.  When deciding between saving the lives of those on his craft, including himself, or possibly killing a fellow American, did he access hidden knowledge?  As much as I would like to continue this attack of words upon this blog that refer to sports as a war, I will get on with the show, exposing this so-called crack in the matrix.  So...who is ready to have their minds bent Dock Ellis style?

The Preseason Story Theory:

Anytime a comeback story, beat report, or best-shape-of-my-life article comes out in the preseason, raise a red flag, because something drastic will happen with that players production, something often ghastly.  Now, I don't mean the typical so-and-so had Tommy John surgery and will be throwing from the mound on such-and-such date.  I am talking about these antiquated reports, often quirky and extraneous, that come out during the windless still of the anti-climactic off season. 

Maybe a fan favorite has been using emu oil to cure athlete's foot that had been keeping him from running full speed.  Maybe the team's ace visited with the Maharishi in the off season and can now "levitate" his curve arch higher.  Maybe a utility player took part in off season drills with a backwoods baseball clinic called the Kason Jendall Grit Factory and he thinks all of his anxiety issues have been quelled.  I think we are getting the picture as to the type of stories I am talking about here. 

The part that works for me with this theory is the public factor.  There is that certain something about information in the public that changes a person.  We see it every year in sports, with Tiger Woods recently laying a flawless example.  Once a person's ideas, habits, strategies, and personal-life details are shared in the media, it affects them.  We often hear celebrities talk of being advised to ignore the press, and to never, ever "google" their name.  This strikes home, as bloggers, when questioning sports-related figures, inevitably ask, "Do you read the blogs?"

Now let's sample the evidence:

Feb. 23, 2007- Mike Sweeney turns to yoga

In 2005, Mike Sweeney had a triple slash of .300/.347/.517 in 514 plate appearances.  It was his 7th consecutive year of solid production for the Royals.  In 2006, he was limited to 60 games with a back injury, leading to this report in the off season.  Sweeney's 2007 campaign: .260/.315/.404 in 74 games.

Dec. 16, 2007:  Jamal Lewis turns to vegetarianism

This is a strange case.  First off, the story states that Lewis had adopted vegetarian habits from 2005 on, but with my theory, I will go with the date the story "broke".  Secondly, there are several other stories that affected Jamal over the years, whether it was his stint in prison for intent to traffic cocaine in 2005, or becoming a student at Harvard in 2008.  I don't remember the Harvard story, but I do remember adding Jamal Lewis to my fantasy team after hearing he was leaner due to vegetarianism, hoping to regain the glory of his 2,066 yard season in 2003, and being rewarded with a lackluster, but serviceable, 1,002 yard season with only 4 touchdowns in 2008.  He played half a season in 2009, and retired shortly thereafter. 

Aug. 3, 2009:  LenDale White invents the Patron Diet

Tennessee Titans' running back shows up to camp 30 pounds lighter, due to none other than tequila abstinence.  After posting 15 touchdowns in 2008, fantasy owners that bit on the leaner-and-meaner routine were dished a busted 2 touchdown season in 2009, followed by a 0 game performance in 2010. 

Jan. 24, 2010- Bobby Jenks finds Jesus

By the time the 2010 White Sox season rolled around, Jenks had logged 4 seasons as Chicago's closer, registering two 40 save seasons.  In 2009, Jenks had started to slip a bit, struggling with weight issues, but still logged 29 saves with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, nothing to write home about, but certainly serviceable.  On comes this story in the 2010 off season, laced with this gem of a quote: 

"I no longer drink.  No alcohol at all. Not even a beer here or there. Just things like that, really focusing on the future. It was a personal choice. It hadn't gotten too much. I just found myself not wanting to [drink] anymore. I just wanted to be more of a family man. Then this last year, I came to Christ and that was a big influence on my life."

Jenks 2010 season:  4.44 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP in 52.2 IP, somehow still registering 27 saves.  Furthermore, Jenks is off to an atrocious pace this year with a 2.48 WHIP in 9 innings with Boston. 

Mar. 2, 2010:  Miguel Cabrera is done drinking alcohol...not really

Miggy joins LenDale, Bobby, and gang, as players to quit drinking in search of better production.  Guess what?  We have found an exception to the rule.  Miggy is a monster.  He has produced at a MVP level for 5+ years now, and after this story came out, Cabrera hit a career high 38 homeruns in 2010, and then followed that with another alcohol soaked media affair during spring training this year.  He is still producing.  Mickey Mantle is smiling in a corn field in Iowa right now. 

So, I have laid a small sample size down.  There are countless others, from Zambrano being in the best shape of his life at the onset of the 2010 Cubs spring training season to Kansas City's own Larry Johnson training in a facility in Arizona while holding out in 2007 to Chase Utley shaving .2 of a second off of his 1st-to-3rd time in the 2010 off season (a tip of the hat to the person that can find this story, because I sure couldn't).  Sure, we can chalk most of these stories up to this format:  struggling player looks for new way to resurrect career, fails, was going to struggle regardless due to age, injury or other circumstance.  But in my opinion, these stories hold some serious Felipe Paulino weight in my fantasy sports notebook.  If somebody changes their name, or is told to "think before tweeting", I want to know.

Coming full circle, let's talk Mexicutioner.  After 4 years of complete dominance as the Royals closer, Joakim Soria asks for a nickname change.  Four long years the Mexicutioner quietly dominated, flinging pitches over the dish, whipping his curve on the outside corner, and missing bats, all for this.  There is a fine line between "shutting up and playing" and being an outspoken superstar.  I will never say he was wrong for asking for a change.  I will never blame him for asking out of that cruel nickname.  We have all experienced some form of brutal nicknaming in our past, whether directly or from afar. 

Unfortunately, nicknames can not be chosen or denied.  Nicknames are like Royals Review memes: they are not chosen; they are born.  The narrative here is that my diatribe about nicknames is likely a moot point, but this blooming quagmire of an off season story could be to blame.  I figure I will probably get told "rewind yourself" in the aftermath of this fanpost, but with all sincerity, there was a large, loud blip on my radar screen.