Are Teams Making Esocbar Beat Them?

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jun 11, 2011 5:22 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

On Wednesday night, Brayan Pena got walked in the 9^th inning by the Blue Jays which brought up Alcides Escobar. It was mentioned in the Game Day Thread that it looked like teams are treating Escobar like a pitcher and walking the players in front of him to make him beat them. Escobar has been slated into the 9^th position in all but 10 games this season, so Yost thinks he is the worst hitter on the team not name Mitch Maier.

Well, teams aren't blatantly treating him like a pitcher. Not one #8 hitter has been issued an IBB this season. It does though seem that pitchers aren't giving the 8^th hitters any good pitches to hit. In the 63 games played so far this season, 3 players, Getz (10 games), Pena(18 games) and Treanor (32 games), have mainly started in the #8 spot. Each of the three have a higher walk rate when in the 8^th then when they hit any where else in the lineup.

Name	BB% - 8th Spot	BB% - Other
Getz	11.4%	8.9%
Pena	10.8%	0.0%
Treanor	18.1%	12.5%

Each player walks at least 3% more in the 8^th spot compared to when they hit else where. Heck, Pena has only walked when hitting in the 8^th spot this season. It makes sense that teams don't want a hitter that could actually hit the ball out of the ball park to beat them. They might as well let the guy that averages 1 home runs every 146 plate appearances in the majors and minors try to beat them. There is no way to be 100% sure if pitchers are not letting our #8 hitter beat them, but it sure seems that way.

Bonus useless data

When looking at the data I noticed that Treanor had a high K% (17%) and BB% (20%). I decided to look at where he stood compared to the rest of the team (min 140 PA) and league in true outcomes (BB, SO, HBP and HR). He comes out with the teams highest total (40%) with Betemit (33%) and Gordon (32%) being the next closest. In the league he is 23 out of 246 players with names like Brad Hawpe and Matt Kemp having similar percentages.

In keeping with the article, the lowest ranked Royals was Escobar with 16% true outcome at bats. He was ranked 238 out of 246 when looking at all players.

Tweet Comment 33 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Well, Escobar doesn't hit, so in that sense you might want to walk the guy in front of him.

On the other hand, the worst-case scenario with Getz and Treanor is usually a single or a walk anyway, so why bother pitching around them? With Pena, there’s a very occasional double or HR, but it’s more of the same.

They’re all low average, low power hitters. Why walk any of them?

by kcdc1 on Jun 10, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

They shouldn't

But it is a statement on just how easy people view Escobar.

When you have what you perceive as an automatic out next up, you will almost instinctively nibble with the guy ahead of him.

Edgar knows best.

by kcbottom9th on Jun 10, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

They're afraid of Betemit

scoring from 1st on a single

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Jun 10, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Very interesting stuff, Zimmerman.

Can you explain the “true outcome” thing? I’m kind of lost.

"An American Tale...that’s traumatic as hell. All those scenes when he’s like so close to reuniting with his parents…that’s like SAW for a six year old." -- Will McDonald

by Crooow on Jun 10, 2011 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure, but I think it is

batting average divided by fan perception multiplied by what have you done lately numbers, then multiplied by +/- 5% depending on political leanings and irrational hate/love for the player.

by kansasjohn on Jun 10, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Three True Outcomes

Walk, Strikeout, Home Run. Only the batter and pitcher are involved.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Jun 10, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

+HBP

by Prime2U on Jun 10, 2011 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

ahh, okay……thanks.

"An American Tale...that’s traumatic as hell. All those scenes when he’s like so close to reuniting with his parents…that’s like SAW for a six year old." -- Will McDonald

by Crooow on Jun 10, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Making lemonade

Since Melky is destined to hit #2, I think we should hit Escobar 3rd to artificially inflate his OBP and increase his trade value.

This is precisely the type of intangible that you Sabergurus will never be able to measure.

Escobar makes everyone around him better

When life gives you lemons…

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Jun 10, 2011 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 13 recs

Comment of the year

Can’t be rec’ed enough

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jun 10, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

YES

Finally, some common sense around here.

"An American Tale...that’s traumatic as hell. All those scenes when he’s like so close to reuniting with his parents…that’s like SAW for a six year old." -- Will McDonald

by Crooow on Jun 10, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Or

you could hit Melky 8th

by bas on Jun 10, 2011 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Blaspherer!

Burn the witch!

This is my signature line. It is full of awesome and win.

by KC_Satchmo on Jun 10, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Mohammed Does Not

Go to the mountain.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 12, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Questions

Pena’s numbers are striking… but how many PAs has Pena had not in the 8 spot? That sample size may be vanishingly small, though I admit the 0% still seems noteworthy.

Any way to quantify just how statistically significant the Getz and Treanor numbers are? Getz’s 2.5% seems not quite that much.

by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on Jun 10, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

PAs for each

Pena
31 in other spots
74 batting in 8th

Treanor
24 in others
116 in 8th

Getz
157 in others
44 in eigth

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jun 10, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

The aggregate pct.

is 14.5% when 8th and 8.0% in other spots. Despite the small sample, that is a significant difference. They collectively get 1.81 walks in the 8th spots for every one they pull in other spots. That is the difference, in 500 plate appearances, between a player who gets 73 walks and one who gets 40.

The real question is will our pitcher’s walks go up if we pull a Larussa and hit them eighth.

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jun 10, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions

can't wait for interleague

the strategic mastery of the National League will be on display when they intentionally walk Alcides Escobar to face a pitcher

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jun 10, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

It's higher plane of baseball excellence

Edgar knows best.

by kcbottom9th on Jun 10, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Our series at Petco Park may not go well.

"That's fine wood from... somewhere."

by KeepItCopacetic on Jun 10, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Why?

We don’t have any power to zap. Doubles may turn into triples though.

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 11, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Are we sure they won't intentionally walk a pitcher to get to Escobar?

I don’t know that he’s hitting well enough not to put a pitcher in the 8 spot.

by AMS on Jun 10, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Sounds reasonable

But I don’t think this is enough data to draw any conclusions from — especially for a 3% difference in walk rate.

by PopeSoria on Jun 10, 2011 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

3% is the lowest

The others are 8% and 6%.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jun 10, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

why make a special effort

when anyone in our lineup batting 7/8/9 is more than capable of killing the rally?

The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.

by sm7600 on Jun 10, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

FWIW, I still think Escobar is going to hit half-decently

He just doesn’t look that bad up there. He makes contact a lot, makes solid contact sometimes, and puts balls on the ground where his speed can shine. If he could just bat .260, he’d be a pretty valuable contributor.

by kcdc1 on Jun 10, 2011 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

It's what I'd do

until Escobar shows that he’s a better hitter. I wouldn’t IBB the 8th place hitter, but I’d make that guy hit a pitcher’s pitch – on the corners and just off. I wouldn’t worry about walking him. This is especially true if it’s Pena or Treanor as Yost doesn’t PR for his catcher that often (if at all). Neither of those guys are likely to steal their way into scoring position and aren’t going to score from first in the unlikely event that Esky hits a single.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jun 10, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

But even if the walk doesn’t come around to score, you’re still walking a poor hitter and cycling back to the top of the line-up more quickly than you should. Assuming Escobar is an automatic out, in a situation with 2 outs facing the #8 hitter, if you get the #8 guy out, then Escobar leads off the following inning significantly hindering the Royals’ chances of scoring. If you walk the (also crappy) #8 hitter, then Gordon leads off the next inning, and things look a lot better.

Unless the winning runner is on 3rd and first base is open, it just doesn’t make sense to pitch around a crappy hitter to face a slightly crappier hitter. You need to take every out you’re given.

by kcdc1 on Jun 10, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I can agree with you (and everything depends on the situation of course)

I’m not really saying to pitch around the 8th place hitter (though that’s probably not clear). I’d make Pena/Treanor/Getz be the aggressive one, and get themselves out on well placed pitches. I just wouldn’t grove a fastball down the middle of the plate to avoid walking the guy ahead of Escobar. If #8 walks, I’m just not gonna worry about it too much (generally speaking).

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jun 10, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Escobar saves 4 runs a game with his glove

therefore your argument is invalid

Unless I'm wrong...

by Top Ramen on Jun 10, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Think the argument is on his bat

There’s no doubt his leather is great.. But for him to become a more complete player he needs to make hits…

Example: he needs to be Willie Mays Hays from major leauge.. Infield hit and sprint to 1st

"Stay Classy Kansas City"

by Mas Cervezas on Jun 10, 2011 9:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think some of the media around the Royals truly believes Escobar's glove makes up for his bad offense.

That’s certainly a valid opinion, but they should also be ready to acknowledge there are other opinions and a number called WAR that so the opposite.

Joel Goldberg seems to be one of these people based on messages he’s sent me on Twitter.

Also, FWIW—Goldberg seems to be one of the most accessible guys. For those on Twitter, if you have thoughtful questions about the team, he will sometimes try to get those questions answered (as long as they are verifiable).

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 11, 2011 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

I think treating Escobar like a pitcher is based on the efficacy of the Royals' #8 hitters

If the Royals had a good hitter consistently hitting 8th, and there were the proverbial 2-outs, empty base situations with that guy at the plate, Escobar would be treated like a pitcher with the kinds of numbers he’s putting out. But the Royals #8 hitters don’t exactly inspire fear, so there you go.

It’s not as if anyone is expecting him to run a .700+ OPS or anything, I just want something that tells me he’s capable of doing something about 30% of the time. I just want him to sprinkle a couple more doubles in with the singles he’s getting. I just want him to have a stolen base % something north of 63%.

I’m not looking for Escobar to be great offensively, good offensively, or even decent offensively. I just want him to be not-embarrassing offensively — that’s it. Right now, he’s very, very embarrassing.

You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.

by DanielSmith on Jun 11, 2011 10:01 PM EDT reply actions