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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

For all the complaints we continue to see about how bad the starting pitching is, let's remember that the offense is pretty solid.

Also worth noting as that the oldest regular playing behind the mound is 27 year old Chris Getz.

12 months ago Tiny kcdc1 3 comments 0 recs  | 

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Good point about the age, let's look at some more

While we’re at it (were “we’re at it” = “I’m trying to avoid real work”):

Starting with the key offensive stat: the Royals are 8th in the Al in wRC+ at 101 (100 = MLB-wide average). Middle of the pack.

Also 8th in the AL in SLG.

3rd in league (league=AL from now on) in average… taken together, then.

10th in league in isolated power.

6th in AL in walk rate.

4th in AL in BABIP.

It’s problematic to talk about the “true talent” of a number of players any time, especially over less th an half a season, and especially since we’re concerned about the near future and many of the players are different than the beginning of the season (Hosmer over Kila, Moose over Betemit/Aviles, Getz over Aviles, etc.).

Taking a quick look at some of the current regulars, what they’ve done, and what I think they are likely to do over the rest of the season (just quick looks, don’t expect much), if you care, which you shouldn’t (and leaving out Moose, since there isn’t much to compare his future to):

MLB average wOBA is currently .316 according to FanGraphs.

Butler: .307/.407/.445 (.372 wOBA) about what I expected in terms of his wOBA, and probably around his true talent at this point, although I expected (and still expect) a more power and less walks. More of the same RoS (rest-of-season, I would guess.

Danger Ox .285/.354/.464 (.358 wOBA) Afraid to jinx it. The Royals MVP so far, if I wanted to admit such a thing, which I don’t, since it will jinx him. I do think there’s some improvement here, the contact is up, and his BABIP isn’t that far out of line with his peripherals, and his power is above average. As much as I hate to say it, I do think he’ll regress a bit — not to something bad, but I have to be realistic.

Francouer .265/.316/.462 (.343 wOBA) Nice year overall from Frenchy so far, but he’s been in free fall the last few weeks, offensively. That’s some random variation, but it’s probably also Frenchy being Frenchy. Still, I do think that .343 wOBA is pretty far over his true talent. Probably time to sell “high” on him and/or Melky and bring Cain up to see what he’s got for better or worse.

Melky .277/320/.453 (.342 wOBA) Another nice year so far. He’s probably also over his head, but I think he’s probably a better hitter than Frenchy at this point — better strike zone judgment, certainly.

Hosmer .284/.335/.446 (.340 wOBA) Even holding your own at 21 in the majors is an accomplishment, and Hosmer has clearly done that. Keep that in mind when I say that, for at least this season, while obviously (and this goes for anything else I’ve written here) anything can happen, I think this wOBA is probably around Hosmer’s true talent right now, maybe a bit high, actually. Again, don’t shoot me. A .340 wOBA hitter at 21 has a lot of promise, just by the numbers. Now, I think Hosmer’s skills right now, given past performance in the minors, have a different constitution. His initial power was impressive and a taste of things to come, but it’s come down as expected. His strike zone judgment has been a disappointment so far, obviously, since he did so well in that respect in the minors. It’s just growing pains. For this season, i don’t expect much more, but the future is obviously bright.

Wilson Betemit: .289/.348/.411 (.328 wOBA): Not a regular any more, but this is probably pretty close to his “true talent wOBA,” although I’d expect a lower aveage and more power if he got the playing time. Good bench bat and find by Moore, hopefully will be traded soon and Aviles brought back up.

Chris Getz: .247/.319/.297 (.287 wOBA): I honestly don’t think he’s much better than this in terms of his true talent. He probably has a bit more power, but that’s about it. You’d think a guy like Getz with some speed would have a higher BABIP, but I’m starting to think he just doesn’t hit the ball hard enough. Just my worthless opinion.

Mike Aviles: .213/.257/.391 (.291 wOBA): It’s too bad Aviles is 30, otherwise I’d make more of an argument for him to still be around. He probably still should be — he was bad last year until they stopped jerking him around at the end of the season and he ended up with a good offensive line. He doesn’t walk , but he doesn’t K much, either, and obviously has some pop in his bat. Has actually hit RHP better during his MLB career than Getz. Hopefully the plan is to bring him up with Betemit is traded. If they’d just play him, I think his true talent wOBA is at least .315, and he’d have value to a number of contenders as a stopgap or platoon infielder.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 13, 2011 2:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Oops, forgot a big one

HERCULES (Alcides Escobar): .227/.260/270 (.240 wOBA). Hot weekend got him back up to replacement level. He has to be better than this. How much better? Hard to say. But yeah, there has to be some positive regression here. Whether or not it’s enough to make him tolerable as more than an organizational stopgap (his current line doesn’t, despite his tremendous fielding) is another issue. I really don’t know. Like Getz, he seems like he “should” have a higher BABIP given his contact skills (which he needs since he’s a hacker roughly on par with Aviles and Frenchy) and speed, but he just doesn’t hit the ball all that hard. I hope he puts something together, since I really don’t want to see Rafael Furcal getting the Guillen Special.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 13, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

real work must really be bad

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 13, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

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