Melky is not reverting

Mar/Apr: wOBA .326 wRC+ 102
May: wOBA .343 wRC+ 114
Jun: wOBA .352 wRC+ 121

12 months ago KSinDC 17 comments 0 recs |

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by James Kannengieser on Jun 16, 2011 7:24 PM EDT reply actions

Ridiculous!

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Heresy! Burn him at the stake!!

Oh yeah and his UZR is negative eleventy billion. Trust me, I know numbers unlike you paleolithic knuckle dragging facebook simpletons.

If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there is a man on base. — Dave Barry

by ChangingSpeeds on Jun 16, 2011 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

good

that means we can trade him, right?

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Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jun 16, 2011 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

For a AAA reliever right now,

gotta keep playing him because Dayton just might get a AA reliever that hasn’t flamed out yet.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
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by Warden11 on Jun 16, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s gone a while before the deadline…surely there are some teams that could use him. I don’t know who the Giants have playing in the outfield, but they always suck offensively. I don’t care if they won the world series…they suck. And Melky would be good for any team salary-wise. He’s eligible for arbitration…so he fits into any budget.

At some point, playing for the future is reason enough, and that point is nearing. Same goes for Getz.

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 16, 2011 8:29 PM EDT reply actions

Melky and Kendall to SF!

Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!

by BHWick on Jun 16, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that he's arb eligible

Doesn’t that mean he might get kinda pricey? I mean arbitrators tend to value things like RBI and batting average. I can see Melky getting a couple million out of arbitration, whereas in FA, I’m not sure he’d get more then $2-3 million for a one year deal.

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by RoyalsRetro on Jun 17, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Arbitration keeps the cost down until the last year of arbitration

Because, for younger players, they can only be compared to players their own age (in service years), but players in their final year of arbitration can be compared to all players, so you’d expect the cost to be fairly comparable to the free agent market.

by KSinDC on Jun 17, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Because, for younger players, they can only be compared to players their own age (in service years), but players in their final year of arbitration can be compared to all players, so you’d expect the cost to be fairly comparable to the free agent market.

What’s your source for this? Don’t all players in arbitration get compared to players of comparable service time?

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 17, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

From the collective bargaining agreement

The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service,
give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group.

Page 30 of the pdf: http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

by KSinDC on Jun 17, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think final year arbitration players get market rate. Certainly the conventional wisdom is that they don’t. A study would have to be done to compare comparable final year arbitration players to FA’s of around the same time.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 17, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

And much of that offensive value

is lost due to his really really terrible range in centerfield. He might not even be a good left fielder from what I’ve seen.

2011 Royals Review NCAA Bracket Challenge Winner, by process of attrition

by sfeldkamp on Jun 17, 2011 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

His baserunning (which is positive) is half as big as his hitting, and his fielding (which is negative) is half as big as his baserunning

by KSinDC on Jun 17, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

so you really only net a 12.5% loss in overall value due to shitty range in CF?

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jun 17, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

His defense is taking away one-sixth of the value that a Melky clone with league-average defense would have

It’s taking away one fourth of the value that his hitting is adding, so before fangraphs added baserunning in a month ago, that would have been the calculation. Now, his fielding is still taking away a fourth of his hitting, but baserunning is boosting it.

There are five components to runs/wins above replacement, but only three of them reflect the player’s ability. The other two (replacement, which basically just corresponds to how many games you play, and positional, which results from how difficult your defensive position is) are in the hands of the manager. Of the factors that Melky can control (hitting, baserunning, and fielding), he’s cancelling out about 1/6th of his two positive attributes with his crappy fielding. Of the five factors combined, his fielding is cancelling out about 6% of the value provided by the fact that he plays CF every day and hits and runs bases like he does.

by KSinDC on Jun 17, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions