Why the Pitching "Situation" is hardly a "Situation" at all (And some of my hated predictions)
Fellow Royals fans, your pessimism is killing me. There is no "situation" with our future pitching staff. It is a void that can be filled more easily than you think.
I will start off by giving you the common complaints by Royals fans about our future pitching staff, and addressing them concisely.
"The Free agent starting pitching market is terrible this offseason!"
I really would not consider this offseason's starting pitching market to be "terrible", and for a reason.
Let's start out with a list of FA starting pitchers in 2012, and what I think about all of them signing with the Royals.
Mark Buehrle CWS
Buehrle has made it pretty clear that he will retire if he does not get signed by the White Sox, so, we'll skip him.
Chris Carpenter STL *
I'd think his asking price would be a tad too high, so, we'll skip him too.
Aaron Cook COL *
Aaron Cook is known to be a consistent starter/ground ball pitcher, and I think he would be a good fit with our rotation. He'd be a cheap sign, but, we'll see what Dayton does.
Kyle Davies KC
(N/A)
Zach Duke ARI
He would be a crap sign. We have better pitchers than this guy on our current rotation.
Edwin Jackson CWS
I hope Dayton gives this one some thought, as it would be a good sign, but, sort of a gamble. I think it would be kind of like a "Gil Meche 2.0" Signing if we did pick him up.
Scott Kazmir LAA *
Meh.
Paul Maholm PIT
He'd also be a decent gamble. He hasn't ever had a winning season (Partially because he played behind a terrible Pirates team), but, he has a decent career ERA (4.36) and SO/9 Ratio (5.6). He seems like another "Gil Meche 2.0", in my opinion.
Jason Marquis WAS
He seems like a sure-fire DM pickup. Former Brave, decent career.
Scott Olsen PIT *
Meh.
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Tough sign, and he's thinking about retiring.
Oliver Perez NYM
Meh.
Joel Pineiro LAA
Another "Gil Meche 2.0". I don't think Dayton would risk it, though, because he's starting to get over the hill.
CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
This would be an extremely tough sign, and I don't think that the Royals would blow their entire salary for this guy.
Tim Wakefield BOS
Old. Meh.
C.J. Wilson TEX
If we threw some money at him, we could sign him. I think it could very well happen, too. This would be the best, most affordable sign of the bunch, and the Royals may just be able to make it happen.
*Has 2012 option w/ club
(Courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts)
Sure, this draft class does look bad compared to other years, but, there are still some cheap, reliable starters on the market next year. That includes CJ Wilson, who would be my preferred pickup.
"None of our players are valuable enough to trade for a starter!"
This assumption is completely without merit, and here's the reason.
We have what pretty much everyone believes to be the best farm system in baseball, and heck, our major league team 'aint so bad either (except for the starting pitching this year). Here's an ideal trade scenario that has a good chance of working.
Billy Butler, Chris Dwyer, and Irving Falu to Brewers for Sean Marcum.
Why this will work, you might ask?
Well, first of all, we need starting pitching. Sean Marcum is a terrific starter.
Secondly, Prince Fielder is going to be a FA next year. The Brewers need a 1st Baseman who can hit, and Billy Butler is a 1st baseman who can hit.
Third, The Brewers can choose to give Yuniesky Betancourt a 2012 option, which they won't. Irving Falu is a great SS prospect, who is expendable for the Royals.
Fourth, Chris Dwyer is a good addition because he is a starter whose career could go either way, and he has a lot of upside. He would also be expendable if we got CJ Wilson and Marcum to long-term deals.
Fifth, Marcum is a hometown kid, so, he would likely sign.
Lock Marcum up to a long-term deal, and you're set.
"Our starting pitching in the minors sucks now!"
Actually, no, but maybe. Sure, some of our pitchers are going through a rough patch, but, That doesn't mean NONE of them will pan out in the majors, let alone in the minors. I bet that 2 or 3 of the pitchers in our system will turn out to be above average or better starters in the MLB. You could very well be right, though.
"Our starting pitching in the majors sucks!"
Whoa, not so fast there, guys! Sure, our ML starting pitching sucks, but, it's not like we don't have any adequate starters (Or relievers who could be converted into starters. *Cough* Crow *Cough*).
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Here are some moves that need to be made with our current rotation:
They need to get rid of Davies and O'Sullivan.
Chen and Francis will be gone for FA.
Send Mazzarro to the minors to sharpen up next season.
After all of that is said and done, we still have Duffy, Hochevar, and Paulino, who are all adequate starters, and you have a rotation that looks somewhat like this:
1-Sean Marcum
2-CJ Wilson
After that, you still have Montgomery (Who I predict will be a reliever to start his career) and Crow waiting in the bullpen if anything goes wrong.
See? That's not so bad. In fact, it's pretty good, like a rotation for a contending team!
Let me know if I addressed all of those complaints clearly and/or accurately, and give me your opinion on what needs to be done in the starting rotation.
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With that headline
I’m quite disappointed to read that the cast of Jersey Shore will not save our pitching staff.
by KyleM on Jun 17, 2011 11:04 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The Marcum trade is an interesting idea
But I think you’ve probably overshot from the feedback on the Gio deal. The Brewers got two years of Marcum in exchange for one good prospect (Brett Lawrie). The cost for the Royals to get him for one year is going to be less than that, and Billy Butler alone is far more than that.
I do think the Brewers could make for interesting trade partners after they lose Fielder this year. They may look to restock.
However, the biggest issue here is making a trade in exchange for a one year rental. 2012 is not the Royals year to go for it. It’s a year to figure out what holes we still need to fill. Trading away players who can be expected to contribute in 2013/4 in exchange for players who’ll only be under Royals control for 2012 is a bad trade. We want to maximize our chances in 2013/4, even if it comes at the cost of 2012. We certainly don’t want to improve the chances in 2012 at the cost of 2013/4.
I think you're right about that.
Marcum could easily be picked up for a prospect like Dwyer, or hell, even Clint Robinson. However, I’m not talking about giving him a 1-year deal, I’m talking about a 2 or 3 year contract. He is a top-notch pitcher who could help us in the long run. I also agree that we should keep Butler.
NONE...
of these guys will be a cheap sign, given how few there are; Wilson, the best of, yes, a terrible bunch (I doubt the Yankees let Sabathia get away, given their pitching concerns), will get goofy money. I was hoping for a little more analysis than, “meh” and “Meche 2.0”, although I think it’s somewhat appropriate in Jackson’s case. Irving Falu is a great SS prospect? Really? I hadn’t heard that, but if the Royals could convince the Brewers Betancourt was a viable option, anything’s possible, I guess.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
Like I said, I think that DM would be willing to throw some money at Wilson.
Irving Falu is a good prospect. We have so many great prospects in our system that some of us look down on the “Good” ones.
What makes you think Irving Falu is a good prospect, or even a prospect at all?
He’s closer to organnizational filler than an actual prospect. Frankly it is unlikely that he’ll ever even be a utility IFer in the majors.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 19, 2011 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jun 19, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
...no, Irving Falu is not a good prospect; he's 28 with a .689 career minor league OPS...
And as for throwing money at Wilson? Can the Royals throw Yankee, Angel, or Phillie type money at C.J.? Because as the only decent starter available, those are his likely suitors. And since Wilson has been playing for a winner, I kinda doubt he’d want to be a part of our rebuilding project.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jun 19, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
This post was bewilderingly optimistic. My responses:
“The Free agent starting pitching market is terrible this offseason!”
Yes, it is. On the entire list of free agent starters, the best options available were CJ Wilson and Edwin Jackson. Not that they aren’t competent pitchers, but if they’re the best in the 2011/2012 class, the Royals are in trouble – especially when you consider that the Yankees will snap up one or two of the best options available. SP is available, but the Royals will end up with an aging Jason Marquis at best.
“None of our players are good enough to trade for a starter.”
Okay, the trade scenario posited in the post was ridiculous enough. Irving Falu is not a prospect of any stature, and Dwyer is a future lefty specialist at this point – in any case, his value has never been lower. Butler has no place in the National League, and couldn’t be traded to the Brewers until Prince is a FA anyway.
But let’s do some thinking, and examine past trades we’ve made for starters. DeJesus got us the indomitable Vin Mazzaro after a 3-WAR season, which is about as productive as Billy Butler usually is. Billy’s under contract for longer, but given his body type that might even be a reason for concern. I’m not saying that the Royals have no assets, but if you want to trade for a front-line SP, maybe you should think about including a guy like Cheslor Cuthbert.
Furthermore, even the Yankees (who are willing to trade all of their best prospects if the situation calls for it) say that there is simply no top-tier SP to be had right now. At any price. So think again before relying on trades for impact starters.
“Our SP in the minors sucks right now.”
I agree with the assessment here, but an important facet of analysis was missing: time frame. Our best impact pitching prospects start arriving mid-2012 at best, and will start being awesome a year or two later, if everything goes right. But we need guys now.
“Our current SP sucks”
Yes, it does. Crow couldn’t effectively start in AA, and this post assumes his productivity as an ML starter, which I find presumptuous at best. Kyle Davies might be our #4 starter when healthy, which says a lot about our rotation.
The Royals have shitty starting pitching, and all the signs point to this continuing for a year or two. I’m not saying it couldn’t get better, or even that it couldn’t get better fairly soon. I’m just saying it probably won’t.
Prince is a FA after this season
That’s why they went all in this season, trading off their farm to get Greinke and Marcum. They will face a big dilemma this offseason with Fielder gone, one more year of Marcum and Greinke each only being around for one more year, and not a lot of trade pieces or budget room left.
Also, the idea that Cheslor Cuthbert would bring a bigger trade return than Billy Butler is insane.
1 year of an injured David DeJesus is not a good basis for establishing the trade market.
Whoever trades for Marcum is only getting one year of a good-but-not-great starting pitcher. If the Brewers GM turned down four years of Billy Butler for one year of Shawn Marcum, he should be fired, then beaten, then shot.
That group of FA's isn't a menu that Moore can just choose from
The scarcity of good pitchers on that list means that there are going to be multiple bidders for all of the good and even decent pitchers on that list. So it’s not like Moore can just “throw some money” at CJ Wilson, Edwin Jackson, etc. and they easily become Royals. Moore would have to overbid many other teams and that’s not easy both because the Royals have limited resources and because KC isn’t a coveted destination for free agents. So maybe Moore will be able to get one of the pretty good FA SP’s. Maybe. There’s a significant risk that he’ll overpay (in both dollars and years) for a merely ok SP like Marquis. That’s a problem.
Jack, your post didn’t read like you were trying to honestly and realistically evaluate the Royals pitching situation. It looked like you were working hard to convince us and yourself that the situation is pretty good.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 19, 2011 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
This.
Jack, your post didn’t read like you were trying to honestly and realistically evaluate the Royals pitching situation. It looked like you were working hard to convince us and yourself that the situation is pretty good.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
YES
and honestly, Im a little upset I wasted my time to read the whole thing…….
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
And of course, EVERYONE has issues with my article.
What is it that I need to do to please you guys? Say that we have no chance?
You can post whatever you want
But when people disagree, they are going to tell you. And I think most don’t see your analysis as realistic. It sounds like you’re spinning in a desperate attempt to convince yourself and everyone else that everything is going to be ok.
Yes the Royals have a chance. But the pitching situation doesn’t look very good right now. Some more prospects are going to get to KC. But of course the vast majority of prospects fail. So we can’t expect a huge wave of successful pitching prospects. And FA opportunities are always limited. So with regard to pitching, the Royals have a pretty big hill/mountain to climb.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 19, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
There are lots of disagreeing opinions here, so you're never going to please anyone
But I think people will respond differently to “here’s what it’s cost to trade for a young successful pitcher with 3 years of team control left and here’s what it’s cost to sign a top pitcher in the free agent market, and both of those look affordable in the Royals’ current situation because _” than to “I think if we threw some money at him, we could sign him.”
I like your enthusiasm. I think most people (hawkins excepted) do, but I think your fanposts would be much better if you wrote the outline and then went to do some research on historical precedents for what you’re projecting. Almost everyone is here to learn more about the Royals. The more new information you give people in fanposts, the better they’ll respond. The more idle speculation you give people, the more likely you are to draw “I speculate that your speculation is stupid” comments in addition to people pointing out factual errors. I think you’d find that spending the same amount of time on half as many fanposts (twice as long on each) would be rewarding in the feedback you receive.
The most logical trade piece on the current roster,
assuming he has returned to his normal form for the remainder of the season, is Soria.
Now, that being said, most likely teams interested in acquiring Soria would probably want to trade us starting pitching prospects, not starters who have already established themselves in the big leagues. Why? Because, unlike the Royals, most teams consider the closer the FINAL piece in building a winner, so they likely wouldn’t want to disrupt the rotation they have already assembled.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
and, yes,
I realize GMDM has virtually no interest in trading Soria. That doesn’t change the logic that he SHOULD, at the least, consider it.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Truth?
this post is so bad, I dont know what to say
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/

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