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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Lack of Strikeouts Hurting Royal Pitchers

In a return to the horrible pitching staffs of the early and mid-2000s, Royal pitchers, and Royal starters especially, just aren't striking anyone out. Unlike some of those teams, this year's squad is decent, even good, defensively. Nevertheless, day after day, night after night, the barrage of balls in play is wearing down the team's ability to prevent runs.

Overall, the pitching staff is dead last in the AL in K/9, striking out just 5.67. This is nearly a strikeout a game below the AL average of 6.65. The real damage is being done by the starters, who are collectively looking like early career Jimmy Gobble out there, striking out an amazingly low 4.58 per nine. If an individual pitcher was at that number, you'd be worried that he couldn't survive in the Major Leagues. For an entire rotation? Incredible.

IP K/9
Hochevar 98 3.9
Francis 91.1 4.2
SOS 53.1 3.0
Chen 42.2 5.1
Davies 41 6.4
Collins 35.2 8.8

 

Listed above are the numbers for the top six Royal pitchers in terms of innings pitched, though the problem is near universal. Adcock is next on the list, and sports a 5.5 K/9. While Crow & Soria have good strikeout numbers, Duffy (5.9) is also iffy.

Hochevar's 3.9 K/9 is frankly, a little terrifying. The last two seasons, he was at 6.7 and 6.6, so this is a significant drop. Thankfully, his walks are also a tick down, but pitchers who don't strike out 4 hitters per nine tend to quietly disappear.

Star-divide

The relievers have been ok, posting a 7.48 number, which is good for 8th in the AL. That's not a great number either, but it's also not horrible. It's functional, although also indicative of the fact that the bullpen, after a hot start, is far from a true asset. Still, given the difference in innings, the bullpen isn't the main culprit here.

In the early days of the Moore regime, the biggest change at the Major League level came with the pitching staffs. After years of consistently having the 13th or 14th "best" pitching staffs in the AL, the Royals quickly jumped up into the mediocre range, thanks in part to having more pitchers who could miss bats. In large part, that has been why the team has been able to avoid losing 100 games recently. This year, the Royals have fallen back to their old position as the highest ERA staff in the league.

While defense is always important (though not always necessary, if you have enough hitting and strikeouts) it looks increasingly critical for the Royals headed into 2012. I'm sure the pitching staff will have many new faces appear over the next year, but it remains to be seen where the quality is going to come from. Just look at this season, Duffy hasn't been a disaster, but it isn't like he's turned the staff around either.

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Didn't realize...

Hochevar’s K/9 were down that low. He’s a very perplexing player, and I’m afraid he’s going to be a career teaser…until Duncan gets him and performs whatever voodoo he does, and turns Luke into effing Chris Carpenter. Jesus.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Jun 18, 2011 1:13 PM EDT reply actions  

after having...

the worst defense in baseball the last 3 seasons by defensive runs saved, we’ve rebounded a bit at least so far to being just kinda bad. From 2008-2010, we last in defensive runs saved at -192, Red Sox were next to last with -88 over that period. pretty sick.

I think the K thing is a bit of variance and Luke gets it together and starts missing bats over the 2nd half.

by Bart41 on Jun 18, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions  

There has to be some truth to this

with Yuni playing short last year, every pitch felt the need to K every batter.

by Black and Gold on Jun 18, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Duffy's curve location seems to now be coming around

so I imagine that will rise over time. He only had one K in his last outing, but he was finally starting to find it, so I think his low total that game was a bit of a fluke. I’m not worried as far as he is concerned. As for Mazzaro and SOS: I remember somebody posting a study awhile back showing that all successful starters generally need at least 9 K/9 in the minors; both had totals below 7.

"That's fine wood from... somewhere."

by KeepItCopacetic on Jun 18, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

The study said that they'd had a K/9 above 9 at some point, which is an odd test

Vin Mazarro posted a K/9 of 9.2 at AAA so he passed the test, for whatever that’s worth.

The post you’re referring to was BHWick’s (http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/5/27/2193586/your-royals-minor-league-starters-and-their-strikeout-rates), but I didn’t find a quick search confirming it. Here’s a comment I posted there:

I don’t have the New Historical Baseball Abstract, and I was sort of surprised that K/9 was emphasized over BB/9, considering that BBs are weighted 50% greater than Ks in the FIP calculation. I didn’t want to do a full study, but I wanted to get a sense of what we can learn from minor league K/9 numbers, so I went and pulled the minor league K/9 stats for all the pitchers who put up 4.0 – 4.5 fWAR last year. These guys are excellent pitchers (or at least were in 2010), what did they do in the minors?

John Lackey: A+ 7.0 AA 6.7 AAA 7.0
Brett Myers A+ 10.6 AA 7.1 AAA 7.9
Matt Cain A+ 11.0 AA 7.5 AAA 10.9
Ricky Romero A+ 8.3 AA 6.5 AAA 7.7
Mat Latos AA 8.8
Hiroki Kuroda A+ 6.6
David Price A+ 9.6 AA 8.7 AAA 8.9
Tommy Hanson A+ 10.2 AA 10.5 AAA 12.2
Anibal Sanchez A+ 10.2 AA 9.5
Gavin Floyd A+ 7.5 AA 7.1 AAA 6.8
John Danks A+ 8.1 AA 9.0 AAA 9.2
Colby Lewis A+ 8.6 AA 9.3 AAA 7.8
C.J. Wilson A+ 6.8 AA 6.9 AAA 13.1
Dan Haren A+ 8.0 AA 8.0 AAA 9.6

I had two takeaways from this: 1) the numbers are more volatile than I expected (look at C.J. Wilson!). I don’t know what this means, but it reinforce to me the danger of small samples. 2) the importance of the numbers seems to be more of a threshold than a correlation. All of these pitchers posted a K/9 of at least 6.5 at every level, but I can’t see any correlation between high Ks and better MLB performance.

by KSinDC on Jun 18, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the clarification; I had been under the impression

it had been phrased in terms of a player’s entire minors career. The finds are counterintuitive in terms of BABIP being more or less random. Having said that; I would be skeptical of Mazzaro’s 9.2 total given that it came in 37 innings.

"That's fine wood from... somewhere."

by KeepItCopacetic on Jun 18, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's why it's a junk test

As you can see from the numbers above, lots of these guys never posted a number above 9, and for several of the guys who did do it, it’s clearly an outlier, often because of a small sample.

by KSinDC on Jun 19, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

and this is why I keep posting about the Royals being open to the idea of converting some of their relievers to starters

Before 1700 guys jump on me with reasons it wouldn’t work for pitcher x, pitcher y, etc. – hear me out first.

As Will explains, we simply can not win the way things are now. Does anybody trust Glass to invest the $25 or $30 million per season to lure 2 good starters with good K rates to the Royals? If not, and if you share the concern I have that the foursome of Duffy/Montgomery/Lamb/Dwyer is not going to be the entire solution, then why in the world would anybody be opposed to trying some of the better arms in the rotation at some point, at least for the rest of the season? Yeah, I get it – some of them will likely prove to be ill-suited for that role. But, perhaps, one or two might prove able to sustain their stuff for 6 innings, and the team would be INFINITELY better for it going forward.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Jun 19, 2011 1:09 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not one of the 1700

…I think the pen is a good place to look. I acutally think the one guy nobody has mentioned as a possible starter who might be good is Teaford. Not saying he’s gold, but he ought to be considered.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Jun 19, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Saddest part of this whole situation:

It’s not hard at all to see the makings of a championship everyday lineup on board RIGHT NOW. They are a bit above the AL average already, with several of the significant pieces most likely to improve a lot before they reach their primes. Hell, it’s not hard to envision this core group of hitters leading the team into “3rd or 4th best AL offense” very soon.

The pitching is lagging FAR behind.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Jun 19, 2011 1:12 AM EDT reply actions  

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