What Royals Might Be Traded At The Trade Deadline?
With the season closing in on it's halfway point, the Royals find themselves in a familiar position: last place in the AL Central. While the Royals are only 8.5 games back, the odds they make the playoffs this season are very low. With the trade deadline coming up, the Royals have decisions to make on a number of players. Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, Matt Treanor, Jeff Francis and Wilson Betemit may be playing in new uniforms the next month, and MLB Trade Rumors suggested that the Royals may try to move Jason Kendall, Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen as well (although I can't picture a market for any of them, except Chen. Maybe.) Teams will also presumably call about Joakim Soria, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, although those three would be much more expensive to acquire and are much less likely to be moved. With the Royals games slowly becoming more meaningless, I thought it would be a good exercise to try and predict what guys are likely to be moved, and what would be a "fair" trade.
In the next couple of weeks, I will look at trades from past seasons, and use Victor Wang's research on how valuable prospects are to determine what the Royals can expect in return if they decide to trade each player. I also will look at what teams might be interested in our players, and the odds that they will actually be traded. I hope to have a post up about Jeff Francis up later today. In the meantime, I am curious to hear what everyone else thinks. Who do you expected to be moved in the coming month? Who do you want to be traded but don't think they will, or who do you want to keep who you think will be moved? Sound off in the comments, and let me know if there is anything else I should factor in when attempting to gauge what the Royals can expect in return.
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package up
some sort of combo including any or all of the following: Jeff Francis, Melky Cabrera, Clint Robinson, Jeremy Jeffress and/or Wilson Betemit for a quality SP prospect who is almost ready for the bigs, plus a utility player… that would be my ideal trade
Eric Berry + Brandon Flowers = a pissed off Phillip Rivers
But it is pretty much impossible to trade several mediocre pieces for one good prospect.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
what about high upside "lottery ticket" types from Low A
would love to find some more Tim Collins level players.
prefer that they be on the SP side of the spectrum though, but just as you said, tougher to acquire.
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Jun 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually those high upside guys are top prospects. Now if we’re talking about a RP prospect, then yeah you can get someone like Collins (who had value, but wasn’t a top prospect).
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
And it might be tough to get a relief prospect as good as Collins
If Francis remains healthy, he could bring back a legitimate prospect, but after that, actual contenders would view the other likely available guys more as platoon/bench bats (Betemit, Cabrera, Francoeur, Treanor) and questionable bullpen help (Chen, Davies). Those type rarely bring back much (basically, everyone Moore got at the deadline last year besides Collins).
One big complication is that with the Royals farm system producing players now, the 40 man roster is getting full and will have to add several players in this fall. This reduces the team’s flexibility in trading for guys already on the 40-man roster (or will have to be added this fall). Trading for Lucas May types is kind of pointless if the team has to DFA them a few months later. The minor leaguers the Royals should target are low minors guys who will not have to be added to the 40-man for another year or two.
by Gopherballs on Jun 21, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
They should target former high round HS picks
That have been slow to develop but still have tools/projection. Navarro’s the easy comp, (or Bianchi-types) but guys who have for whatever reason fallen in stature but could still develop.
by billexgordler on Jun 21, 2011 5:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
They should target former high round HS picks
That have been slow to develop but still have tools/projection. Navarro’s the easy comp, (or Bianchi-types) but guys who have for whatever reason fallen in stature but could still develop.
by billexgordler on Jun 21, 2011 5:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
what's your opinion on organizational filler?
I’d love to see these guys dumped for a few 2B/catcher/SP that have no chance at the majors, just to get the prospects that are ready a shot here in KC.
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Teams can get minor league filler
from minor league deals and picking up minor leaguers who get released during the season.
by Gopherballs on Jun 21, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Francouer will not be traded
Later this summer, the club will announce a contract extension of 2-3 years with the Frenchman.
Kendall will be dangled for trades, then released. Treanor will be around next year also.
Betemit, Francis, and Davies will be traded (if that’s possible).
They might trade Butler and keep Betemit, if the price is right.
Not sure about Cabrera and Chen.
Just my opinion.
That information is somewhat classified.
Melky has played extremely well for us this year
but I don’t think he is part of our future. I think he will be traded to make room for Lo Cain. The reason I don’t think they will trade Frenchy is that we need a right-handed power bat in the lineup. If we trade Melky and Betemit, which I think they will do, then the only right handed power bats left are Frenchy, Butler and, theoretically, Treanor/Pena.
2010 = The beginning of a dynasty
Yeah...
a .438 SLG and .175 ISO just screams “power bat”.
Frenchy will still be around, but for other reasons. Stupid reasons.
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by Lum on Jun 21, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
exactly
Moore and Frenchy are lovers
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
OT, but with more possible relevance than debating the value of Melky Cabrera
Can someone tell me when you can start buying fireworks?
Nick Swisher is handsome.
Should have been yesterday
I believe Mo. fireworks season is June 20-July 10.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jun 21, 2011 10:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think our best chance
Is to find someone who needs to shed some payroll, and will trade one of their higher priced pitchers for a couple of our cheap yet useful pieces. Kind of like what we did with Guillen. I think the Dodgers, maybe the Cubs, I’m sure there’s a couple of other teams, may be an opportunity for us. It’s the only way I see to both move some of these guys and actually get back something we need, at least that’s ready to play now.
by Prime2U on Jun 21, 2011 10:25 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The Mets may be an option
R.A. Dickey now
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jun 21, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Right idea
but I am not sure there is a Dan Haren-type sitting out there this year.
by Gopherballs on Jun 21, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I doubt we find an ace...
But would Lilly from LA be a bad pick-up? We need a 2/3 guy too, and they might be open to Francis and change to get out of his contract.
by Prime2U on Jun 21, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i'd love to get lilly depending on what it would take
he’s been a consistently solid pitcher…never gets hurt…strikes a good number of people out
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Lilly
fun to watch… but he’s not what he used to be: 6.23 K/9 this season in the NL West? At 3/33? No thanks.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
walks are also down....
fip is right about the same
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
In a beat up division in a weak league in weak run environment generally
And he’s 35. Probably a below-average starter if he moves to the AL.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I didn't really thin about his age
There are some other options with a similar situation out there though. They aren’t likely, but they are possible.
by Prime2U on Jun 21, 2011 4:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I like Wandy Rodriguez, but he wouldn't come cheap
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Would love to get transcripts of the Wade/Moore discussions, though
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
For the next 2-3 years at least
We are going to have to get an expensive pitcher from outside if we want to compete. We really need a 2/3 type for at least the next year or two. Hopefully we can find a good value for that one. But I don’t see any way out of paying ace money for an ace until we manage to develop one.
by Prime2U on Jun 21, 2011 4:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wandy isnt a bad option either...
i wonder how much it would take…from what ive read, i think the astros are going to go into full rebuild mode…dumping expensive players and trying to reload the farm system quickly
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like Wandy is at the top of the Yankee's list
So it’ll probably cost a lot.
by Prime2U on Jun 22, 2011 1:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Very slim chance
To get Billingsley….
Or Garza or Carpenter from the Cubs…
by Prime2U on Jun 21, 2011 4:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Who's more valuable? (as a trade piece)
Kila or Clint?
by billexgordler on Jun 21, 2011 10:39 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
how does a team with a 1b need make clint more valuable than kila?
they’re both 1b…and from everything i’ve read, kila is a much better 1b than clint. clint might be more valuable, but that was just a weird statement to me…maybe im misunderstanding though.
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Kila.. the same Kila that can't catch a throw from the SS?
by ExRoyalsFan on Jun 21, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
While I can’t say he’s good defensively, he’s decent. While I’ve never seen C. Robinson play, the scouting reports I’ve read have said that he’s poor defensively and basically just a DH.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve never seen Robinson play either. I was very disappointed in Kila’s abilities at first base (let alone his bat).
by ExRoyalsFan on Jun 21, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
yes...that kila...
i was very critical of kilas performance at 1st but theres been nothing that i’ve read that says that clint would be any better than billy
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Compensatory draft picks
For any players under team control beyond 2011, there’s a high probability that the rules on compensatory draft picks will be changed so that having a player in the last year of his contract is far less valuable than it is under the current collective bargaining agreement. Even for players who are in the final year of their contract now, it’s not clear whether the new CBA gets done before the arbitration deadline.
Butler and Cabrera
For Bumgarner or Sanchez
I would even do Monty and Butler for Bumgarner and a low level pitching prospect. Bumgarner can be our ace
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
me...not that interested in pitchers from SF
or the NL West in general. its a crazy pitching environment with SF, SD and LA. specifically, i dont think bumgarner will be all that good….definitely not an ‘ace’…i think monty’s got a better chance of being an ace than bumgarner.
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Monty may not make it to the majors as a starter the way he's pitching
I’d give up Butler, for a pitcher that can be a great starter even if not an ace. He’s only a couple of years older than Monty and one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was top pick and everything. What’s not to like, besides you having to change your screen name
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Cabrera and Betemit is all I see happening.
Cabrera to the Reds for AA relief pitcher Brad Boxberger
Betemit to the Giants for AA starter Eric Surkamp or Hi-A OF Jarrett Parker
i think i'd be happy with any and all of those deals...
get it done dayton
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by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Soria, Butler, and Gordon
are the only ones who could bring impact prospects in return on a trade but also are probably the easiest to replace in-house. Most likely to be traded are Melky and Betemit to make space for Cain and one of the Omaha infielders. Noticed that Irving Falu has been getting reps at 3B. Frenchy is possible to a team that needs a platoon OF, but won’t return much beyond a space for David Lough. Can’t see trading Treanor with his sacred OBP and good defense. Whoever gets traded will probably get packaged with some of the log jammed AAA players; Kila, Robinson coming to mind.
How are Butler and Gordon easy to replace in house?
Kila doesn’t look like a good replacement. I don’t think Robinson does either. And it’s not like the Royals are full of good hitters who could ably DH. And the Royals are paper thin in the OF, organization-wide. It would be extremely hard to replace Gordon.
Why do you keep mentioning Falu?
And why do you say Treanor is good defensively? It looks to me like he can’t block a ball to save his life. Any pitch outside the strike zone has a decent chance of ending up 30 feet from him.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you keep mentioning Falu?
.300+ ba, plays SS, 2B, and now 3B, switch hitter with good splits, could be a fix at 2B or at least an infield back up. Just going by the numbers.
“And why do you say Treanor is good defensively? It looks to me like he can’t block a ball to save his life. Any pitch outside the strike zone has a decent chance of ending up 30 feet from him.”
That statement is beyond mere ignorance, rises to a special level of ignorance. Do you ever actually watch a game, or do you just search statistics that support your odd views? The stats for balls rolling 30 feet away away are passed balls and wild pitches, just in case you’re interested.
“How are Butler and Gordon easy to replace in house?”
Cain, Lough in the OF, Clint Robinson, even Melky at DH with more doubles, triples, homers, rbi, runs, stolen bases. All a matter of return in trade and if the goal is a solid young 2 or 3 slot starter, then Butler, Soria, or Gordon are the only players we have not named Hosmer or Moustakas that will accomplish that, if packaged with some throw-ins.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He's 28
In his 3rd go-round at AAA. His numbers mean absolutely nothing in that context.
Edgar knows best.
Falu's BABIP is an insane 362 this season.
Also, he’s K’ing at double the rate that he usually does. Add it all up, and you have a non prospect getting lucky.
Jim, I literally watch every game,
and I think Treanor is not all that good at blocking balls. Certainly not as good as his reputation, and arguably no better than Brayan Pena at it.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
.300+ ba, plays SS, 2B, and now 3B, switch hitter with good splits, could be a fix at 2B or at least an infield back up. Just going by the numbers.
Using BA to evaluate a hitter is a big mistake. And when you look at any minor leaguer, you have to put stats in context: performance, age, league, level, number of years at that level. Considering that, Falu’s performance has not been impressive. He’s a non-prospect.
That statement is beyond mere ignorance, rises to a special level of ignorance. Do you ever actually watch a game, or do you just search statistics that support your odd views? The stats for balls rolling 30 feet away away are passed balls and wild pitches, just in case you’re interested.
From watching the games, Treanor can’t block pitches. He does a horrible job of gettin in front of the ball.
Cain, Lough in the OF,
Isn’t Cain going to be supposedly replacing Melky or Francoeur? He can’t play more than one position at the same time. And there’s no reason to believe Lough would be anything more than maybe a decent 4th OFer. So yeah he could replace Gordon in the sense that he could show up to the park and play in LF. But his production likely wouldn’t be much more than replacement level.
even Melky at DH with more doubles, triples, homers, rbi, runs, stolen bases
Wow. Yeah, they could replace Butler at DH with likely much, much worse hitting.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
"Isn’t Cain going to be supposedly replacing Melky or Francoeur? He can’t play more than one position at the same time."
I think you’re seriously underestimating Cain’s range. Negative for the sake of being negative.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
We could then use a backup catcher
Or another infielder
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Great point
We can have Kendall and Treanor out there w/ Brayan as a backup just in case Kendall’s arm comes flying off.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Now you're misunderestimating kendall
He’s played through worse injuries.
by billexgordler on Jun 21, 2011 5:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow. Yeah, they could replace Butler at DH with likely much, much worse hitting.
Possible, but I gave the improvements that come with Melky. The point is that Melky won’t bring a solid young 2 slot pitcher, nor will Frenchy or Betemit nor Aviles, so Melky’s production plus the new pitcher should be worth a Butler or so, which is the idea of making trades.
“From watching the games, Treanor can’t block pitches. He does a horrible job of getting in front of the ball.”
So fangraphs isn’t really Holy Scripture?
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
So fangraphs isn’t really Holy Scripture?
What stats are you using? Throw some numbers at me. But take into consideration sample size, age, etc. If you’re arguing that the stats show he’s a good defensive catcher, then show them to me.
But yes, I think everyone realizes that catcher defense has not yet been measured very well. So you really do have to augment the stats with an evaluation of the player’s tools and performance the good ol’ fasioned way. Matt Klaassen came up with a pretty good catcher defense metric. I’d be interested in his opinion of Treanor.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
PB s
and WPs, last I looked. Lee Judge also tracks things like blocks in the dirt with runners on 3rd.
“So you really do have to augment the stats with an evaluation of the player’s tools and performance the good ol’ fasioned way.”
Yep.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
And so Treanor’s PB’s and WP’s per games or innings is better than MLB average? If you’re making an argument based on stats, then provide the stats. Show me.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Per fangraphs, two PBs,
0 WPs.
“"And why do you say Treanor is good defensively? It looks to me like he can’t block a ball to save his life. Any pitch outside the strike zone has a decent chance of ending up 30 feet from him."”
Talking guts?
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You gave improvements that were wrong.
Cabrera doesn’t have more doubles than Butler this year, and his career high is 28. Butler on the other hand has finished with at least 45 doubles the last 2 seasons and is T-11th in the AL this year. Cabrera has averaged 8 home runs per year, Butler has averaged over 15 if you add his rookie year. Add in Butler’s far superior OBP% and the improvements don’t exist. Cabrera and improvement over Butler, laughable.
by BeauJackson on Jun 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cabrera doesn’t have more doubles than Butler this yea
Good catch, Butler leads 18-15.
“Add in Butler’s far superior OBP% and the improvements don’t exist. Cabrera and improvement over Butler, laughable.”
Then laugh away. I understand the board man-crush on Billy, so great that he is untradeable for anyone else in the game. My point is that Butler, replaced by Melky at DH, plus a good pitcher and Cain in center makes the Royals a better team. No one has suggested that Butler get given away, rather the discussion is on trade value and attempts to upgrade the current club.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
No one has suggested that Butler get given away,
Yeah, you suggested that he’s easily replaceable….with a much worse hitter.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you suggested that he’s easily replaceable…
Within the context of a trade and value received. Certainly more easily replaced than Geinke was. Billy is a giant among low power DHs and rated as about the 53rd best hitter this year by Further Review, but to get a good starter, the drop off in walks with Melky might be worth it. You seem to disagree.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
FanGraphs currently has no stat for pitch blocking
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
And for catchers, the fielding element of WAR comes solely from throwing attempted base stealers out (or failing to do so), is that correct?
FWIW, going by TotalZone, Treanor was a below average defensive catcher through 2009 (the last year for which Fangraphs has TZ data). But I really don’t think TZ does a decent job of measuring catcher defense.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, just Dewan's basestealing stuff
I think TZ is okay-ish for catcher defense. But I was primarily responding to Jim’s implication that saying that Treanor is bad at blocking pitches somehow has something to do with FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
IF Fangraphs is making Treanor bad at blocking pitches.
Then they should stop that.
Go Royals!
You can replace him with Betemit at DH and not lose as much if anything at all
He’d be fine. If Butler yields a quality starter how can you disagree? We could actually give Kila a half of season of plate appearances and if he ultimately fails try Robinson. AL teams can put anyone at DH and the Royals have plenty of options besides a high OBP guy who lead MLB in DP outs last year, cannot play the field, (atleast Betemit can try) and has no speed, little power and that is regressing. He’s overrated
Last year, Betemit’s OPS was 50 points higher than Butler’s in a little more than half a season. It is sufficient to judge. This year Betemit isn’t getting consistent playing time (something Butler has always been allowed) Butler also has recently increased his OPS by 50 points in the past month; in May it was hovering around .800. Is Butler hitting better or will he regress? Maybe it’s worth trading him now when the Royals can get a nice return.
Butler and Montgomery for Bumgarner would be a good trade for us. They unfortunately have to make room for Zito and we should use it to our advantage.
Hochevar, Bumgarner, Duffy would be a nice trio of starters to work with next year.
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
How much more money does Butler cost than Betemit?
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
AL teams can put anyone at DH and the Royals have plenty of options besides a high OBP guy who lead MLB in DP outs last year, cannot play the field, (atleast Betemit can try) and has no speed, little power and that is regressing. He’s overrated
I guess WAR is overrated too.
Last year, Betemit’s OPS was 50 points higher than Butler’s in a little more than half a season. It is sufficient to judge.
So a half season tells you all you need to know about a player, huh? All of the rest of the data on him is meaningless, right?
How much more money does Butler cost than Betemit?
Butler is under contract (including the option year) through 2015. Betemit becomes a FA after the 2012 season.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
All you need to know
Butler is under contract (including the option year) through 2015. Betemit becomes a FA after the 2012 season.
All you need to know to realize this is a dumb trade. Making the Royals worse during our window for contending (2013/4) is a bad plan.
So picking up Bumgarner is a bad trade?
He has a higher WAR than Butler and could possibly be replaced in house with guys who would produce close to his numbers (Betemit, Kila, Robinson)
So WTF are you guys talking about? The GIants wouldn’t do this anyway, hence why it would be a good trade for the Royals
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 21, 2011 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If Butler could possibly be replaced in house, so could Bumgarner
Monty is at least as good a bet to replace Bumgarner as Kila and Robinson are to replace Billy.
I do think Bumgarner is benefitting from playing in the NL West with its HR-suppressing parks, which is why both the stats that adjust for that, xFIP (3.47) and tRA (3.57), are much higher than the FIP (2.92) that’s generating his great fangraphs WAR.
You take Bumgarner out of the NL West and suddenly he’s not a better player than Billy. I could see a trade straight up but putting in our best pitching prospect in as well is nuts. It weakens the 2013/4 team overall.
What is nuts is to think that Monty can replace Bumgarner
HR suppressing parks like the K? Bumgarner is playing great in MLB (I don’t care if its in the NL, Zito was awesome in the AL and sucks in the NL – there are several examples of players playing well in the NL and then playing well in the AL – there isn’t a universal statistical measurement) and he is YOUNGER than Monty. Montgomery has been given chances for the past several years and is struggling in AAA. It’s not a good sign. Kila struggled in KC but he wasn’t handled well in any way by Moore when you have absolute scrubs like Ross Gload and Mike Jacobs preventing him from being in KC. WE don’t know how good Robinson might be.
Im tired of the AL is better than the NL arguments, in small sample sizes yes like how Bumgarner got SHELLED last night. The Royals would be in last place in the NL West too, as they are the worst team in the AL right now. SF just won the World Series. Adding their top pitching prospect for Billy, I have a great OBP, but can do nothing else well (as I outlined above) would be a great trade for us.
Its early to give up on Monty, so no I wouldn’t do those two for him, but Butler straight up for Bumgarner? I don’t see SF doing it
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 22, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It's just math
Adjust Bumgarner’s numbers for the environment he’s playing in, and they’re more than a half a run higher. It’s just math. It has nothing to do with AL vs. NL. Although now that you mention it…
Yeah
But a 3.21 ERA, if you make it 4.50 he’s still our best pitcher.
I’m just saying the guy is really good. If his draft was redone he he would have been top 3, probably after Heyward. Maybe 4th behind Moustakas.
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 22, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, I agree Monty won't replace Bumgarner, but I'm being consistent
If Kila and Clint are able to replace Billy, then the same logic says Monty can replace Bumgarner. I don’t think the latter is likely to happen, but, then again, I don’t think the former is either.
Perhaps
But the difference is Monty doesn’t deserve a chance. KIla and Clint deserve a chance right now and I mean a year in the bigs to see if they can stick.
I like Butler and his 400 OBP. I do try to. But he has quite a few flaws and his power is regressing. Plus he’s 25 years old and a full-time DH – he has no value as a position player and will now cost 30 million dollars that we will need to pay a top flight starter. The other guys are dirt cheap for the next 5 years
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 22, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW
I dont think anyone here thinks Monty is our best pitching prospect anymore. He just gave up 4 HR’s and 9 ER in 3 innings putting his ERA at 5.83. Have you seen his stats? Duffy got the call first for a reason. If Monty was called up his ERA would be over 10.00 after a few starts with twice as many walks as strikeouts.
Odorizzi is our best pitching prospect, and certainly Lamb was until his setback
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 22, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Fun with small sample sizes!
I guess that makes Clint Robinson a better hitting prospect than Myers now. For me, I’ll give these guys at least half a season before re-evaluating their prospect status.
Who would argue that?
Myers is hitting .300 as a 20 year old in AA
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 22, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Monty is a 21 year old in AAA
He’s had a bad couple months, but I don’t see how a 21-year old having a good couple months a High-A passes him as a pitching prospect.
I don’t actually think Navarro is a better prospect than Myers, but if you were just looking at this year, you’d have a 21-year old playing a premier defensive position with an OPS+ around 130 versus a 20-year old corner outfielder with an OPS+ around 100. If you overreact to the season results so far, you’d say Navarro is a better prospect.
Leave it at the star site, will ya, Jim?
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jun 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
My
mistake, thinking we were actually discussing trade chips for needed players for the team.
by Jim Fetterolf on Jun 21, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Something needs to happen. We need a bold move
Gotta make the right decisions at the major league level. Need starting pitching in the worst way. Need a catcher who can carry a bat. GMDM has to take a chance and pull the plug on one (some) of the prospects
Yes
All of the talk about trading Melky/Francouer/Davies/Kendall…etc. is just swimming in place. None of those guys are going to yield anything but low-mid level prospects or clear space for yet to be proven players like CRob/Lough/Cain. If GMDM wants to make a trade that will ultimately have a true impact on the team he needs to make a bold move. Trade Billy Butler or Alex Gordon for a starting pitcher. They would yield the most return. It would suck to lose either one of those guys, but a trade has to provide value for both teams. We need starting pitching desperately. We are thin in the outfield but those positions can be shored up via free-agency or through another trade (or perhaps Lough/Cain can hit at this level).
by RaulDuke on Jun 21, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Here's one
Clint, Lough, D. Robinson, Tejada for a decent SP or nearly ready SP prospect.
by Disposable Orchestra on Jun 21, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
Took a quick look at Cots
to try and find some SP that could be avaliable on noncontending teams. Now these guys may not be avaliable at all and they all have mid to large contracts-except Garza. Wandy, Garza, Nolasco, Cahill, Billingsley, E. Santana and Ubaldo. Now maybe none of these guys are even avaliable but these are the kind of guys I would like us to take a run at. And yes we would have to give up some of our significant prospects in return. Personally I would like to try and get Garza as he is still arb eligible/or maybe just getting to free agency not quite sure.
I'd like to see them make a run at Billingsley in the offseason. It'd be a 4 year/46M deal to take on.
If Moore could swing that with a package headed by Myers, I’d be pleased. not all this talent is going to translate to major league levels, so he’s going to have to leverage some it for proven MLB players.
by BeauJackson on Jun 21, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Billy and Cabrera
My prediction, Billy and Cabrera get sent to AZ for Daniel Hudson. Thoughts?
They are in contention, only 1 game back in the NL West
Why would they want to trade one of there best young starters?
by Connor Moylan on Jun 21, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Billy will be the most enticing I think, but I don't see Arizona trading Hudson for him.
Wait until the offseason to see what Billy could fetch. A contending team isn’t going to trade pieces that are helping them contend this season.
I have no specific ideas, but rather a comment in general
The position players are rather obvious. The team is fairly solid, with the exception of catcher and second base. Trading Melky and/or Frenchy is covered by getting to take a look at a combination of Cain/Dyson/Lough. Team may or may not decide to call up Johnny G for a look; apparently they seem satisfied with Getz for now. No catching prospects are ready, so no apparent trades there.
Now, for my observation:
Obviously, the team SHOULD be willing to trade Francis, Chen, & Davies. That leaves Paulino, Hochevar, and Duffy as “most likely to be in 2012 rotation”. The problem they will have – NO prospects are even close to being ready to take a look at in 2011. That means trading those three guys means more auditions for Mazzaro & O’Sullivan. Not exciting (or fruitful, most likely). An additonal problem – bad as Francis/Chen/Davies are, they STILL might be able to provide more innings reliably, thus protecting the rookie arms in the bullpen.
So, I honestly think Moore will sit tight on his starters. Should make for a depressing summer.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
He might sit tight on the outfielders, too.
Instead of a marginal return by trading Melky or Frenchy, he might offer them arbitration (if they become eligible) and get a supplemental draft pick in return; same for Francis. I know next year’s draft is supposed to be weak, but you never can tell with the high school players.
melky's got another year of team control....
so if the royals offered melky arb, they’d have to pay him a substantial amount of money for next season
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah...if he keeps his pace up...he'd get pretty expensive...
and i dont wanna take the chance on him hopefully performing at this level again
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Gordon is going to get expensive too, and they have simular
WAR value. If Melky and Gordon both have 4 WAR seasons, we could afford to pay both without breaking the bank. I think Gordon is higher to his peak trade value then Melky, and would most likely bring back a lot more.
Go Royals!
gordon is also far more likely in my mind to be good going forward...
which we need…and is under team control for i believe 2 years longer…he’s the kind of guy we should be looking to acquire rather than getting rid of unless we get blown away by an offer
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
This is also maybe Gordon's highest trade value
that he will ever have. We need some starting pitching to compete and he is likely the only player we have that would bring back a good starting pitcher.
Go Royals!
he's not going to bring a good starting pitcher after 1 good season in the past 3
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
So you think he will have more value after a good season
and a half with one and a half years of control left, or more vlaue now with 2 and a half years of control left for a player that has always been seen by clubs as a player that would be very good?
I don’t buy that, I think his value is as high as it is ever going to be.
Go Royals!
Dayton Moore has been known to overpay for players…
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No that was before the wave of unimaginable talent got here. Now he has magically changed to a smart GM.
Killing time until time kills me
he's got a capable replacement...who is one of 'his guys'...and fits his idea of a CF to a T
he’s not gonna overpay melky
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand, he doesn’t know if he can count on Cain. Just because he is one of “his guys” doesn’t mean he’s necessarily going to put all of his eggs in one basket. Don’t you think he wants a backup plan if Cain fizzles? Also then if Francoeur isn’t extended, when it gets to the non-tender deadline, is Moore going to gamble that he’ll get a good FA OFer, or just be content going with some meh OFer from Omaha?
And it’s not like Melky is going to make $10M in his final arbitration year. Arbitrators are supposed to look at the player’s last two years stats. Given what Melky did last year plus what he’s likely to do for the rest of the year, his numbers aren’t going to be at star level. So how expensive do you think he’s going to be? And then look at the payroll. Moore will very likely have a lot of money to spend. No chance he keeps Melky? I dont know.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i was thinking $4-5 million probably...
i think Moore will probably go with another stopgap solution or resign frenchy for another year for the RF situation and then have Lough/Dyson as the 4th OF
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a legitimate possibility which wouldn't surprise me
I just think Melky is under serious consideration, especially if they can’t work out an extension for Francoeur before the trade deadline.
Oh and without looking at comps, I think your estimate is reasonable. The one thing I’d add to that is that Moore and his people have done a tremendous job of getting good arbitration settlements.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
If Melky continues to play like he has, his value likely
continues to rise to the point where we can maybe get picks for him after 2012. Gordon’s value is most likely at its highest value right now.
Go Royals!
I don’t think we should expect him to hit like this for the remainder of this season, much less for 2012 as well. And then there’s the issue of the new CBA and whether there will be any draft pick compensation at all.
Gordon has always been a very talented player who appears to be finally coming into his own. I think I’d like to have him for a couple more years. Not that I wouldn’t consider trade offers for him or anyone.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
and while im against a melky resigning....
a 1 year deal for one of melky/frenchy isnt the end of the world…a stupid 3-4 year deal would be a very bad thing though
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather have Melky than Frenchy
but that’s just me.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
ehh...at the same cost?
im definitely taking frenchy…i think his good defense is likely to be sustained and he at least has power if nothing else offensively….i dont think melky will bring any plus tools to the table from here on out
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Where do you get your opinion of his defense?
Is it from this year’s stats, multi-year stats or from what you see from watching him this year?
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
he looks good....
and the numbers do back it up (sss)…and he has lost a significant amount of weight…which i think makes it likely that it’s real improvement
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve been extremely impressed by the arm. It’s been even better than advertised (both strength and accuracy. But I haven’t been impressed with his speed or range. I really think his UZR will mellow as the season progresses, but we’ll see.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you think Frenchy has more power?
Frenchy’s SLUG is all of 4 points higher then Melky’s.
Go Royals!
175 ISO vs 159 this year
159 vs 117 for the career
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And Francoeur’s career SLG is like 40 points higher too. I really don’t think everything has changed this year for either player.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 21, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, assuming the same money
Like I said, it’s just me, I can see the arguments either way. Francoeur’s arm is really good, and his range is better this season (although I still don’t think it’s much better than average).
On the other hand, I think Melky’s he better hitter — his power isn’t that far below Francouer, and although he’s plate discipline has fallen off the last couple seasons, he’s still more patient than Frenchy, and can at least make contact more often to make up for it.
Both of them are 4th OF types, but I think Melky’s better plate discipline gives him more potential (such as it is) for improvement on offense, and he sort of has more versatility on defense than Francoeur.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't the mutual option around 5 million?
Go Royals!
there's no such thing as a mutual option as far as i can tell...
sounds like a bunch of dayton voodoo…
have any of these ‘mutual options’ ever been picked up?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 21, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
while "neither" is the correct answer
the fact Melky is fine against the 70% of the league that is right-handed while Frenchy is pretty bad at RHP gives Melky the advantage, unless the team’s roster construction screams for a right-handed platoon corner outfielder.
indeed
just saying if I have to choose….
But I’m part of the pro-Maier conspiracy. I’d like to see THAT hack do an advice column.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 21, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
What makes you say arbitrators consider two years of performance?
The CBA says the past year in the context of the full career:
The criteria will be the quality of the Player’s contribution
to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his
overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public
appeal), the length and consistency of his career contribution, the
record of the Player’s past compensation, comparative baseball
salaries (see paragraph (13) below for confidential salary data),
the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the
Player, and the recent performance record of the Club including
but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance (subject to the exclusion stated in
subparagraph (b)(i) below). Any evidence may be submitted
which is relevant to the above criteria, and the arbitration panel
shall assign such weight to the evidence as shall appear appropriate
under the circumstances.
From what I understand
while the teams and players can submit whatever evidence they want (outside of the restricted topics like media reports), the arbitrators pay the most attention to the player’s last two years (like the Elias rankings) when evaluating the player’s performance.
by Gopherballs on Jun 22, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know the last two years are used for compensation picks, but I can't find anything that says they're used for arb hearings
The previous year’s salary is used as a benchmark for the current year’s salary, so it could come in a bit that way, but otherwise, it seems like the language of the CBA is pretty clear, and I can’t find anything saying that arbitrators go away from it.
It is information that gets presented at the hearings
The CBA says arbitrators may consider the player’s contribution in the previous year and throughout his career, plus each side can submit whatever evidence they think is relevant (except for the list of prohibitive items). This CBA, like other CBAs, just provides the ground rules. In practice, the arbitrators are free to weigh the evidence however they deem appropriate. From what I remember from interviews and stories featuring front office types and others involved in the process, the arbitrators pay most attention to the player’s last two years like the Elias stats.
If you come across stories to that effect, I'd be interested in reading them
I’m surprised how little information I’ve been able to find on the arbitration process.
Interviews/Q&As with random GMs and assistant GMs often provide nice nuggets
especially when done by non-maintstream media outlets. One that jumps out in my memory was a question about whether the advanced metrics are being used in arbitration, and the answer was along the lines of some teams and agents have started to use them occasionally when it suits their position, but the arbitrators are not baseball industry guys, so the focus is still on the traditional Elias numbers.
Good example would be Paul Maholm's arb hearing this last offseason (I think)
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 22, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It must be someone else
Maholm signed a 3-year contract before the 2009 season.
Looks like Ross Ohlendorf, but I still can't find anything on using 2 years
There were only 3 arbitration hearing last year — Angels v Jared Weaver, Astros v. Hunter Pence, and Pirates v. Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf was kind of an unusual case because he went 1-10 in 2010, but I can’t find anything to the effect that the arbitrators considered 2 years of data.
The closest I can find are Yahoo’s Big League Stew saying:
“To be fair, arbitration panels take a player’s entire career into account, as well as the relative salaries of other players with similar service time.”
and Paul Swydan on Fangraphs saying:
“A player’s first arbitration hearing, be it as a super-two or a regular three-plus in terms of service time, is the one time when career and platform season (the season most recently completed) are weighted equally.”
(I’m not sure where Swydan gets that — it’s not in the CBA)
You appear to be assuming that there is no difference between "by the book" and "in practice"
I’ve done a lot of officiating (basketball, baseball and softball) and I know that much of how the game is called is not in the rulebook, and is sometimes in direct contravention of the rulebook (like the 3-second rule in basketball). The practice of arbitration hearings may well differ from what little is said about them in the CBA.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 23, 2011 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm open to the idea that the practice could be different than the written rules
That’s why I told gopherballs I’d be interested in learning more about arbitrators using 2 years of data and why I followed up on Matt’s suggestion. I’m interested in learning more about it.
However, given that there are set rules, there’s a presumption that those are the rules that govern. It’s rebuttable with evidence, but Swydan doesn’t offer any evidence. He just asserts. If you told me that players can stay in the lane for 10 seconds as long as the ball is in the paint but offered no evidence, I’d say the same thing — it’s not in the rulebook.
My limited experience with arbitration has found a lot of speculation posing as fact, so I’m going to require some evidence if the procedures differ from those laid out in the CBA. That doesn’t mean I’m rejecting the possibility that practice differs from guidelines, but it also means I don’t take every assertion as gospel truth.
That doesn’t mean I’m rejecting the possibility that practice differs from guidelines, but it also means I don’t take every assertion as gospel truth.
That makes sense. My above comment was merely dealing with the fact that you have been quoting and repeatedly saying “it’s not in the CBA.” There is more to it than what is in the CBA. But your skepticism and search for more information is certainly appropriate.
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by Scott McKinney on Jun 23, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, that's the one I was thinking of
got my Pirates confused
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 23, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
argument against Melky:
A decent part of his WAR value comes from playing CF – but he is below avg CF defensively, and arguably should be moved to RF. If Cain is the CF of the future (or even if the plan is to give Cain 2012 to find out if this is true), then Melky has to move to RF, and he is below par hitting for a RF.
Of course, Frenchy is below par for hitting for a RF as well.
If it’s all the same to you guys, I’d rather not keep either of them. Cain is the obvious choice for one of those jobs; not sure there is an obvious choice for RF. Perhaps, should the FA starting pitcher market prove to be unhelpful, the Royals could spend some of the $30m budget surplus on a legit RF bat? Anybody look at potential RF free agents? Could move Gordon to RF and find a LF (which should be easier, right?). Gordon should be able to make that transition, shouldn’t he? He made the switch to the OF easily enough, and his arm is certainly strong enough for RF.
As for Gordon, definitely the best outfielder on the team going forward – and to me, it’s not particularly close.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
The 2011-12 free agent market
does not look particularly good for either corner outfielders or starting pitchers:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/04/potential-free-agents-for-2012.html
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 21, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Kendall
I’d take a $30 gift card to the Olive Garden for Jason Kendall!
Counter offer
All we can afford is a $5 burger at the Hepatitis Grill. Deal?
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