Royals go to 6-man rotation

Yost says this may last all season. I'm guessing it lasts until they trade Francis or Chen.

11 months ago HarryL 48 comments 0 recs |

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Gotta have Hiram in there

to be an example

by kansasjohn on Jun 27, 2011 9:11 PM EDT reply actions

Where do I go to collect on my DaytonSucks guarantee?

I’ve been assured repeatedly that Duffy was being sent down. I traded him away on my fantasy team as a result. Now it looks like that’s not true. How do I go about collecting on the guarantee?

by KSinDC on Jun 27, 2011 9:37 PM EDT reply actions

he'll mail you some SchruteBucks

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jun 28, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions

I can't wait until O'Sullivan comes off the DL so they can go to a 7-man rotation

Have to fit as many bad pitches into the rotation as possible.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 27, 2011 9:42 PM EDT reply actions

I don't understand the sarcasm.

No, it’s not a good idea. But at least we get to see Duffy keep pitching, and it makes it possible to trade Davies off for a PTBNL. Anyway, I’m not going to get too upset as long as it serves a logical purpose, and as long as that purpose is trading Davies, Chen, or Francis (or any combination of them).

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 27, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions

sarcasm has no place on the internet

by liquorstoreclerk on Jun 28, 2011 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually this would not be a bad idea if they piggybacked

Davies and Duffy. That is too intelligent though, so we are going with a six man rotation, sigh.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jun 27, 2011 9:54 PM EDT reply actions

Piggybacking isn't an awful idea...but not with Duffy.

Allowing him to only pitch 4-5 innings per game max is not the way to develop a young arm.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jun 27, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions

it is the only way to go if he's gonna make it 4 innings with his 90+ pitches....

tell him how many he’s getting and to be efficient and he’ll go all night

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 27, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

This is actually a pretty good idea IMO

Duffy starts, goes 5, Davies goes 4 to close it out. Or, let Davies go 3, Soria to close. Or let Davies go 2, Crow in the 8th, Soria in the 9th. And then Davies could even pitch other nights, for multiple innings. He would be like a reliever that goes long.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 27, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

you might be on to something...

the could call it a long… hmm… long… non-starter?

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jun 28, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

How is This A Bad Idea?

There is about zero chance that Davies gets it together, but maybe he can be average for awhile. He’s done it before. It allows us to keep Chen and Francis until somebody’s willing to give up a minor prospect for a below average starter. It still allows Duffy and Paulino to develop. In a lost season, I don’t see how this is a bad idea.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jun 27, 2011 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

This is all about limitting innings pitched

For Duffy and Hochevar while letting them continue to develop.

Chen, Davies and Francis may get traded but they won’t net enough back to matter

by billski8 on Jun 27, 2011 10:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Not so sure it's about that.

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 27, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Hochevar is 27

How exactly is he still developing? Barring a Derek Lowe-like breakthrough, he’s likely as good as he’s gonna get.

I’ll go ahead and be the jerk who expresses dismay that they didn’t send Duffy down to ensure he doesn’t earn Super-Two status. Which probably should happen anyways because the Royals can afford to have him throw fewer innings down there. He threw way fewer innings in 2010 because of his hiatus, and I worry him throwing more and more this season is going to just be begging for TJ or rotator cuff surgery.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 28, 2011 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Between the date of Duffy's call up and the likelihood that Super 2 is going away in the CBA

There’s almost nothing to be gained from gaming Duffy’s service time. If it’s a good idea for other reasons, that’s fine. But sending him down for the primary purpose of Super Two avoidance would be incredibly foolish.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions

How likely is it, really, that Super Two is going away in the new CBA?

I’ve been hearing conflicting opinions on this one for months.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 28, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I've heard from Zimmerman and some place else (SI? Rany?) in the last week that it's as good as gone

But even if you don’t think that it’s 100%, it’s surely at least 50%, and that significantly reduces the expected return on gaming Duffy’s service time. Plus, remember that the Royals alone will have 6 or 7 players from the same service year (Cain is too now) with more time than Duffy, and Super Two usually only captures about 15-20 guys. The Royals are probably single-handedly pulling the date up on Super Twos even if it stays. Duffy is very unlikely ever to be affected by it.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair 'nuff

Your point about the Royals disproportionately doctoring the date on Super Twos is well taken.

My worry about Duffy’s risk for injury remains firmly intact, however.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 28, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

do you think the other reasons (improving his efficiency) are good reasons to send him down?

i think it is…but ive yet to see any real discussion on the matter…other than discussion about kyle davies…which should have no part in the decision one way or another

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

To me, his efficiency boils down to his walk rate

Given that he had a low walk rate in AAA before the callup, I’m not sure how much he could really benefit from going back down there to work on it.

However, I do think that pitchers can benefit from work against live hitters just about anywhere, so I don’t think it would severely crimp his development if he did get sent down. I think that morale probably matters more than anything, and, on that front, I have to defer entirely to the team.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions

ehh...his walk rate was decent...

but his pitch counts were still not good…and now he’s been up to know that he’s gotta get more efficient in order to be more than a 5 inning pitcher….i mean, he was lights out a couple starts ago…and was at 90 pitches after 11 outs

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't know where to find a game log with strikes and balls

But I was just clicking through his starts at Omaha, and it seems to me that the main thing keeping his outing short is a pitch count limit. Just eyeballing the numbers, it seems he was been throwing 60-65% of his pitches for strikes. I don’t know what would be considered ideal for a strikeout pitcher, but the fact that he wasn’t walking many guys suggested to me that he was controlling his pitches. Watching how many pitches he’s left up in the zone since his callup makes me think that there’s something about the MLB environment that’s messing with his control. I’m not totally sure he can work on that in Omaha.

If you know of a place to get minor league game logs with balls/strikes/pitches, I’d like to take a look at it.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_sch&cid=541&sid=t541&stn=true

April 9 76 pitches 47 strikes 5 IP 2 ER
April 16 76/47 4 2/3 0 ER (2 baserunners)
April 21 86/54 4 1/3 0 ER
April 28 79/48 6 IP 0 ER (1 Baserunner…as dominant as can be…still with a bad ratio)
May 3 95/62 6 IP 4 ER
May 8 97/63 6 IP 2 ER
may 13 88 pitches 52 strikes 4 IP 4 ER

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions

not terrible...

but the results were pretty dominant…if you compare him to other top pitching prospects…it doesnt stack up…and my hunches (which i talked about before he came up) came true…get him down to omaha…have him attack and learn to put away hitters without wasting pitches…too many times he goes from 0-2 to 2-2 or 3-2 before striking a guy out…his stuff is too good for that

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Are you saying other top pitching prospects are throwing more strikes or just going deeperin games?

I think with all the time Duffy had off, a low pitch count is a good idea. But if other top prospects are throwing significantly more strikes, that’s a big deal. I would just want that if they send him down, they give him an achievable but ambitious target for him to be called back up. If his Omaha performance was 96% of what it should have been, I don’t think it’s worth sending him down to work on that last 4%.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions

im thinking more strikes...i just eyeballed the IP/start for teheran and delgado...

and they’re going way deeper into games…and i cant imagine the braves arent being cautious with those guys…especially with teheran being the top pitching prospect in the game and delgado having a pretty significant injury history…

im gonna look at delgados box scores

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

he seems similarly ranked enough...putting up similar stats...

albeit a level lower

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions

april 7 90/58 5.0
april 13 92/57 5.0
april 18 91/62 6.2
april 23 92/55 4.1
april 28 105/65 4.1

alright…looking at these…he’s been on a slightly higher pitch count than duffy but he’s gone more than 6 innings 7 times and there’s not a single start in there where duffy wouldve been able to do that on a similar pitch count…and a couple duffy starts where he was pertty dominant and the pitch count was still way up there. his ratios k/b seem similar, so in my amateur opinion, duffy is just struggling to put away hitters…i dunno

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions

The ball:strike ratios are in the same neighborhood as Duffy

64.4
61.9
68.1
59.7
61.9

I don’t really know what to make of this. Delgado’s K/BB ratio is signficantly worse than Duffy’s was, yet his ball:strike ratio is about the same, and he’s going deeper into games on not significantly more pitches. More weak first-pitch contact?

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions

i dunno...

i seemingly see alot of 0-2 going to 2-2 and 3-2 from duffy…moreso than other pitchers…alot of waste pitches…which with his stuff, shouldnt be necessary

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions

It looks like Duffy vs. Delgado is at most 1 or 2 pitches a game

Duffy is throwing 59% to 65% strikes, with an average of 62.5%

Delgado is throwing 59% to 68% strikes with an average of 63.2%

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions

and going deeper into games...weird...

maybe its just a luck thing….i dunno…too much time spent thinking about it…i’d have been alright with them sending him down to work on it and im alright with the 6 man rotation to limit his innings…whatever…they didnt fuck up…so thats improvement

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions

I assume Duffy's on a lower pitch count than those guys due to Duffy's time off last year

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Neither of them is posting Duffy-level strikeouts

Duffy (AAA): 10.8 K/9 (4.30 K/BB)
Teheran (AAA): 7.6 K/9 (4.00 K/BB)
Delgado (AA): 8.0 K/9 (2.57 K/BB)

Could the Braves be advocating more of a pitch-to-contact approach?

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

hmm...i didnt think duffy's was that high...fuck

matt moore’s putting up crazy k numbers in AA at 1 year younger but he’s putting up similar ip/start numbers to duffy…so maybe im just crazy

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn't mean for you to go to all of that trouble

Those were the same box scores I was eyeballing.

Every one is between 59% (May 13) and 65% (May 3) strikes. It looks like the top strikeout guys in the majors throw around 68% strikes (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/2009-mlb-strike-leaders/) so that might be a target for him to shoot for, but it’s just a matter of switching a couple pitches a game at the AAA level. I’m not sure that’s enough to send him down to work on.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions

it wasnt a whole lot...

im watching superbad for the 27th time…

i wonder what the other top prospects are doing at the AAA level…i went through the BA top 100 list tryign to look for similarly ranked pitchers at a similar level and couldnt find one i liked to blindly go look at another guys’ stats…i have a feeling duffy’s will be significantly worse…

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 28, 2011 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions

His K:BB ratio stacks up pretty well in the Pacific Coast League

but maybe his BB/9 is obscuring a much less efficient approach than the other guys at his level.

by KSinDC on Jun 28, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Bad idea

If you want to limit their innings, keep a bigger bullpen. This will actually increase they chance they stay in a game too long.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Jun 27, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

i know that im not the only one that doesnt like this idea...

but am i the only one who doesnt like it b/c i think duffy needs to go down to omaha to work on his pitch efficiency?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 27, 2011 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

I doubt AAA would be the best place to work on efficiency b/c MLB hitters are not going to chase his pitches just off the plate like AAA hitters would.

That would make me thinking working on efficiency would be best done here….I don’t see the benefit of him going down and getting a bunch of swinging Ks on the exact same pitches MLB hitters lay off of. I say leave him here…his last couple starts he’s looked much better.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jun 27, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Pitchers are sometimes better off working through the issues at ML level.

by hawkinscm87 on Jun 27, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Right.. they were touching on this during the telecast the other night, even.

A pitcher can learn to get out of jams by throwing fastballs in the minors, and the same thing that might tend to catch batters looking there might get fouled off 6-7 times in a row in the show.

"That's fine wood from... somewhere."

by KeepItCopacetic on Jun 28, 2011 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions