First of all, I'm realizing that this is is a distinct possibility with Jeff Francoeur this year. Barring injury, he will definitely have the entire rest of the season to hit the nine more HRs needed to get to 20 on the season, and with his new-fangled, aggressive baserunning, 20+ steals for Frenchy in 2011 seems a foregone conclusion.
Or is it?
Francoeur has decent enough speed, and with him there's never a question of him running full-out on any steal attempt. But this is pretty simple. At a point in the not-so-distant past, he had 11 steals and hadn't been caught stealing once. Wonderful, right?
He's been caught twice in one game, and he's stolen two more bases -- both on plays where he was actually picked off. Both Mat Latos and Clayton Richard had Frenchy dead-to-rights on separate pick-off moves, but seemed to feel they had to throw to first in both cases (they didn't, they could've just tossed the ball to 2nd base and gunned him easily), and when they did, they didn't throw it particularly hard or quickly. Francoeur, of course, was running just as hard as he possibly could, and ended up beating out the throw from first on both occasions.
So what Frenchy really should have is four times in a row where he's been caught stealing and/or picked off. In addition, Matt Treanor was indeed picked off by going on first move in Tuesday's game. Chris Getz was able to steal two bases cleanly, but both were close plays.
The Royals seem to be crossing that line again between aggressive and reckless baserunning, and Francoeur just plain needs to ease up a bit.
Frenchy -- they caught you twice in one game and have basically picked you off in two straight games afterward. Maybe they're onto you and you should lay low for a while, eh? You'll still have a decent chance of becoming a 20/20 guy.