What does your draft board look like?
The draft is on Monday and this is a loaded class. The Royals have done pretty well in the draft the past few years (my only complaint would be that they should be actively trying to figure out how to get compensation picks). After taking a couple of high upside HS bats in 07 (Moose) and 08 (Hos) the Royals have taken a college arm in 09 (Crow--who actually sat out a year after not signing with the Nats) and a college bat in 10 (Colon). The rumors are all over the place: college arm has been repeated over and over but so has Lindor and Bubba.
Of course, in the baseball draft, Best Player Available is always the way to go. It is just really hard to compare Bubba Starling with a guy like Danny Hultzen. They are at such different places developmentally. Which one is the best player? That is up for debate--but if you think that you are a starting pitcher away from competing in 2013 then it makes sense to lean towards the college arm. I think of Bubba and Hultzen within the same tier--however I think teams get in trouble reaching for a player outside of the tier--say a Matt Barnes--who is a good prospect but I think there are clearly better options available at #5.
Here is my draft board at this point:
1. Anthony Rendon
Think the shoulder will be fine. Has the potential to be a Ryan Zimmerman/Evan Longoria type player. I think there no chance he makes it to us at 5.
2. Dylan Bundy
Has everything you look for in a pitching prospect: Stuff, command, control, smarts, dedication, clean delivery. There is a small chance he is available to us at 5. For that to happen, we would probably need it to go:
PIT--Hultzen, SEA--Rendon, ARI--Bauer, BAL--Cole
3. Gerrit Cole
Hasn't pitched well down the stretch but the stuff is still great. Another guy that I think there is a small chance makes it to us. Basically look at the Bundy scenario and flip Cole and Dylan.
4. Danny Hultzen
Advanced college lefty who has shot up draft boards this spring. Outside of Rendon, this is the guy I think least likely to be there when we pick at 5--He could go #1, #3 or perhaps an outside shot at #4.
5. Bubba Starling
Ever heard of this guy? HS athlete extraordinaire. Widely considered to have the highest ceiling in the draft. Either we have no interest or it is a great smokescreen. Could go as high as #2 to Seattle or slip to #9 for the Cubs.
6. Trevor Bauer
It will be fascinating to watch this guy' career. I think he's a very good prospect but I have some concerns with his fly ball tendencies. For better or worse, don't think the Royals will draft him.
7. Archie Bradley
Was ranked higher than Bundy to start the year, Bradley was inconsistent to start the year but came on strong at the end. Has hit 100mph with a very good curve and a developing change. Has a traditional pitchers build and shows good command/control. The potential is huge with this kid. Right now, I think this kid is our pick. I think the top 4 will be gone and we'll take Bradley--and I'd be happy with that.
8. Francisco Lindor
HS SS who should stick at the position. According to some he has an advanced bat with power potential. Others aren't so sure. There are rumors that the Royals are all over this kid--I remain skeptical. Also rumors that Seattle is eyeing him at #2. The draft could get funky if the Pirates take Rendon because it sounds like Seattle would like a bat.
9. Jed Bradley
LHP from Georgia Tech. Think this guy is a little underrated. Good stuff, good command, keeps the ball on the ground. Has faded some down the stretch but I still like him.
10. Matt Barnes
Another guy the Royals are reportedly looking at. I like him better than Jungmann or Gray. He has a lot of potential but isn't quite as advanced as the guys ahead of him. If the Royals take him, I'll be disappointed but not crushed. He's a good prospect.
There are my top 10. I have the first three in a tier and then a gap, followed by #4-7 and then #8-10 are bunched up with about 4 or 5 other players. I showed you mine, now you show me yours.
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Mine
1. Rendon
2. Bundy
3. Bauer
4. Bubba
5. Cole? Hultzen?
I really hope we land one of the top 4. I don’t expect Rendon to be available, obviously, but the other three should be there. I think choosing Cole over Bauer is akin to taking Andrew Miller over Lincecum.
batter nine you sucky
You might get your wish
Sounds like Pit is going to take Cole and Jim Callis now predicts us to take Bauer.
I agree with you on Hulzen, especially.
From everything I’ve been reading it looks like a couple of teams, especially AZ are interested in him. The wildcards to me are Starling and Lindor, because if either are taken ahead of the Royals it leaves them with a better chance of getting Bundy or Cole (the two I’d prefer).
Rendon
Starling
Hulzen
Bundy
Cole
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
I'm hoping we draft Bauer if he is available
Cole
Rendon
Bundy
Bauer
Starling
Hultzen
Lindor
Bradley
Vi veri veniversum vivus vici
I'd like to see Bauer, Starling, Bundy in that order
1. Bauer – Don’t think it will happen, as the Royals will fear his eclectic style. But he looks like the big game ace the Royals don’t seem to have.
2. Starling – His ceiling is supposedly the highest, and I’m guessing he hits it.
3. Bundy – Everything I read says he could be in the majors at 20, almost like taking a college arm.
4. Hultzen- Don’t think he’ll be available, but would gladly take him if the draft falls that way.
5. Cole – Don’t like reading that some scouts think he’ll end up a closer.
need pitching
and more pitching…and more pitching….i would like to see an arm.
btw, where is jason esposito projected to be drafted?
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jun 4, 2011 12:24 AM EDT reply actions
Late 1st - Compensation
My draft board:
Bundy
Rendon
Bauer
Cole
Starling
Hultzen
Gray
A. Bradley
by KC Commodore on Jun 4, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate this draft
Bc not only is Starling going to be an incredible player, he’s a local kid. But we really need pitching, so I don’t know if we can take him. I guess I’d say:
Bundy
Bradley
Starling
Bauer
For my order, whichever one is available that’s highest on the list.
by Prime2U on Jun 4, 2011 8:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
As I mentioned above
the gold standard of draft prognosticators, Jim Callis, is now predicting us to take Bauer. This is going to be really fascinating to see how this plays out—and, if the Royals take Bauer, how his training regimen works—and if it rubs off on any other pitchers.
I'm happy as long as we take a pitcher.
I’m afraid Bubba Starling won’t be any good. I feel like he’s that guy with great tools but never puts it together. Like Billy Beane.
I'd rather have Bundey or Bradley than Bauer
They are just as fanatical about their workout as Bauer, just younger. Bradley may actually be the best of the lot when it’s all said amd done.
by Prime2U on Jun 4, 2011 5:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
My draft board
1. Gerrit Cole – he’s been my #1 for a long time
2. Danny Hultzen – I think at worst he’s a LOOGY, more likely he’s a very solid #2 type starter. Not sure the upside is as high as with others though.
3. Trevor Bauer – I’ve come around on this guy. Impressed with the stuff very much.
4. Anthony Rendon – only because I value pitchers so much higher than hitters
5. Dylan Bundy – I have him lower than others I think because I think the college pitchers this year are very good.
6. Matt Barnes – I like tall gangly guys a lot, and I think Barnes has a really fluid delivery and will be a solid, if not very good contributor
7. Taylor Jungman – I go back and forth on him and his workloads concern me but he’s a workhorse with a great build
8. Jed Bradley – if you want a solid LHP, he’s a pretty good one
9. Bubba Starling – amazing athletic ability, I just think he’s kind of raw
10.Francisco Lindor – HS shortstops just seem so hit and miss. Power potential is just that – potential. I’m not sure I see that potential.
I don’t like Sonny Gray much at all for whatever reason – I don’t think his command is that sharp. I think George Springer will be pretty good. I like Jose Fernandez – the fat Cuban pitcher from Florida. I’m down on Archie Bradley and I have concerns he’ll even sign. Daniel Norris has good potential – nice fluid delivery – but he changes his delivery all the time and has a weird rocking back motion. Could be really good under the right coaching. I see bust all over Mikie Mathook. I like Henry Owens as a bit of a sleeper. Kolten Wong is a guy I’m pulling for that could surprise.
I don’t have really good reasons for thinking these things.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
One of the things I keep forgetting about Bauer
is he is a year younger than most Juniors—he graduated early. In some ways that makes his accomplishments more impressive but it also means he has a little longer before he exits the ‘injury nexus’.
It also means the comps to Lincecum aren't as crazy as some act like they are
Bauer’s velocity has increased every year at UCLA, and he predicts he will be at 97-100 soon. Lincecum has electric stuff, but he topped out at 93 when he was at Bauer’s current stage of development.
Bauer is far from a finished product – he can get even better.
a couple of notes
Frankie Piliere has us taking Bauer—link
Greg Schaum has his doubts that we would take him.
I’d like to believe that the Royals are open to taking him—but part of me also wonders if this is try and spook Arizona into taking him with their first pick (#3 overall) so that one of Hultzen/Bundy falls to us.
You think we would be able to sign Bundy?
At least Starling would theoretically be willing to take a paycut for the hometown team.
I don't see any evidence Starling would take a pay cut
And I don’t see any evidence the Royals won’t do what it takes to sign just about anyone they think is worth the price.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If we draft Starling, he has all the leverage
Not only would KC be under considerable pressure from the local media to get a deal done, Starling has football as additional leverage. We’d have to pay a small fortune to get a deal done.
Then again, both Bauer and Bundy have already said they’d prefer not to be drafted by us. We’d probably have to overpay for Bauer. There’s no way Bundy falls to us.
by moregritplease on Jun 6, 2011 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Schaum seems overly negative
And I wonder how much of it is due to subjectivity, since he’s a huge long toss advocate and just happens to be in Tulsa tomorrow to watch the draft with the Bundys.
Yeah,
Schaum posted his most recent mock draft and has the Royals taking Barnes at 5 and THEN has Bundy at 6 and Rendon at 7. I think he may be trying too hard to be different. Callis, Law and Piliere all seem to think different—I have a hard time believing Schaum has scooped them all. I will be shocked if one of Bundy/Rendon slips past 5, much less two. But, hey, if Schaum is right it boosts his cred.
Agreed
I kinda agree with him on Bauer – I don’t think the Royals like Bauer, but don’t want to make it known its the long-toss thing (even if that is part of it). But I cannot see them passing on Bundy (seems like the perfect guy DM would love) or Rendon.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I like Bauer, although he doesn't seem like a GMDM pick
Starling seems like the type of guy Moore would fall in love with. If it isn’t an advanced college arm, it is Starling,
That being said, I want it to be Bauer.
I've posted this on the other draft chat but thought it was relevent...
Top 10 Pitcher Selections (57) from 1998-2007 average career WAR : 4.2
Top 10 Position selections (43) from 1998-2007 average career WAR: 8.8
That’s a huge difference. If Starling or god forbid, Rendon, is there at #5 they should take them. I say, throw numbers at the pitching with the rest of the draft, but use the premium pick for a positional guy.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
Anyone but Barnes
I would be happy with any of the big names except for Barnes. That would be a nightmare.
Just doesn't seem to have the upside for the #5 spot
He couldn’t even strikeout a batter per inning in the Big East, and his scouting reports don’t wow me enough to overlook his good but not great stats.
Barnes reeks of 'signability', to me
And with our payroll and the Meche windfall, there’s no reason to go after anyone, regardless of money considerations. Barnes is outside of the consensus top 6 or 7, so if they pick him and go against conventional wisdom…he’d better be REALLY good.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jun 6, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I tend to agree
But shouldn’t something be said for position scarcity? I mean teams go after pitchers heavy because its so hard to find, especially cheap pitching.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm not sure what should be said for position scarcity...
I’m not trying do be confrontational; I’m just being thick and not really understanding what you’re getting at and I’m interested.
I guess I tend to think that all high-end talent is hard to find, it’s just that it seems like position players are a safer bet, given the numbers. I’m not sure DM subscribes to this strategy or anything, but I think it’s interesting that since he’s been drafting, they’ve taken position players with their top-10 picks, and a pitcher, Crow, with the 12th pick.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
I'm sure I'm not explaining it well
I’m just saying that position players are safer, but there are also more of them that are decent, whereas pitching is something teams are always looking for – you never have enough of, so that’s why you pursue it so much – even if the return isn’t always there.
I mean even a team as bad as the Royals has stumbled onto a few decent hitters the last decade, but the only remotely good pitchers they have developed seem to be Greinke and Soria.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Ok, I get what you're saying, now...
Yeah, I can see where that’s a consideration. Good pitching IS probably more scarce than good hitting. My guess is you could go all pitching in the draft and it still wouldn’t have enough of it, so I won’t be upset if they take a pitcher. I’m almost hoping Seattle will take Starling so the Royals aren’t second-guessed for not taking him…or taking him.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Jun 5, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah Starling makes the whole thing a mess
And he’s not just a great potential hitter. He should be a great CF. And that is what makes him rare. Not often you can find a really great hitter that can really play a premium defensive position well.
But for all that, we still need pitching so badly that I don’t know if we can afford to draft him. If the pitching wasn’t so good it would be easier to decide. But when you have an 18yo throwing 100mph, and another 18yo and a 20yo showing you everything you want to see, it’s hard to pass them up.
by Prime2U on Jun 6, 2011 12:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's pretty much my position.
There seems to be A LOT of great arms. Not good ones. Great. And it does make picking Starling more problematic than in past years. Too bad he wasn’t in last years draft when we picked #4 after a big talent drop-off after #3. But hey, Colon went 1/2 and is now up to .242, so it’s all good, now.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

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