Alcides Escobar Has Been Peak Level Cal Ripken or Derek Jeter in June

1: buy his tshirt
2: my support he’s coming into his own

You this his max talent level is a poor hitting shortstop!??!?

I think he’s got a little more potentia for that….hell just hitting for a .320 wOBA would make him the 12th best hitting qualified SS in the game…..and I don’t think that is out of the question for him in the future. There’s clearly a LITTLE potential there……

Year old line: .222 .294 .256 .549. He went on to post .700+ OPS several times, and as late as age 37. It could happen.

I have a real question about this, I’m in a car and don’t have the numbers right in front of me, but I seem to remember a Star piece this week about Gordo having something like a 1.9 WAR and that being 11th in the league. I may be way off base here but if he’s just a couple wins above replacement level yet is being considered as a legit All-Star contender that to me says that WAR may be at the least a little harsh and at the most simply flawed. Please feel free to correct me as, like I said, I may be way off base…

Now, his UZR so far this season is a small sample of data. But going by that he’s been a 1.1 WAR player. That means his total value so far this season has been that of a slightly above average player (if 2 WAR for a full season is average then 1.1 WAR for a half season is a bit above average).

I’m not saying his UZR is going to stay at this lofty level. And I have no idea how well he’ll hit. But he’s been what he’s been, and that is a very poor hitting shortstop with exceptional defense which adds up to a roughly average total value.

Just feel obligated to point that out. It’s ironic that a 700 OPS from Escobar would be fine with a lot of folks when the Yunigma did almost exactly that last year (693).

And Greg Hall’s an ethical journalist.

Now my read of what people are saying may be entirely wrong, but it appears to me that the tone of the original post and the discussion which followed it is this: “Escobar is a very bad hitter. Yeah, he’s a very good fielder, but he’s a very bad hitter. And when you you’re talking about player value, really what’s most important is hitting.” I’m sorry but that is about as true as the following: "Billy Butler is a very bad baserunner and a poor fielder. Sure he’s a very good hitter, but he’s a very bad baserunner and a poor fielder. And when you’re talking about player value, really what’s most important is baserunning and fielding.

In reality, all of those things have value. And to a significant extent, those things can be measured and given their proper weight. And WAR puts together these various elements (both positive and negative) and spits out a pretty good estimate of a player’s total production on the field. And I’d rather rely on those numbers than our much more rough estimates of how valuable Player X’s hitting, fielding, etc. is.

Now I’m open to critiques of UZR and Escobar’s defense. If people think that he’s not a great defensive SS and merely a pretty good one, then that drastically affects his true value (meaning that his great UZR so far this season is mostly a small sample size fluke). But I don’t see that argument in this discussion. I see mostly a focus on his hitting with his defense being mostly an afterthought or footnote. The reality is that runs saved are just as valuable as runs created. You can’t talk about a SS’s value without giving equal weight to his hitting and defense.

BTW, it’s not too uncommon for light hitting but toolsy SS’s with great defense to make it to the majors at an early age, show very impressive defense, but struggle at the plate for their first 1000 or more PA’s (sometimes much more). Examples include Ozzie Smith, Orlando Cabrera, Royce Clayton and Omar Vizquel. And each improved their hitting somewhat, usually after many poor hitting seasons in the majors. And each was quite valuable, often putting up 2+ fWAR even in the seasons in which their hitting stunk.

At any given time, just do RAR (Runs Above Replacement) minus Replacement (based on playing time). For Escobar, it’s currently 0.3 runs above average.

It’s hard to know how good his glove is right now, Pretty much everyone thinks it is very good. But we aren’t sure how much “very good” is worth. He’s great on the metrics so far this season, but only average last season. That’s fine for a lot of shortstops, but not for a guy who looks like a .280 wOBA hitter who might get over .300 in a career year with lots of BABIP luck and the wind blowing out.

Escobar is only 24 this season, so there is time for growth. There isn’t a tone to build on, statistically speaking. Scott’s point above about guys like Cabrera, Smith, and Vizquel is well-taken. However, keep in mind some differences. While Cabrera was a hacker who didn’t walk much, he also at least showed some pop and abillty to driv the ball, with an ISO around .120-.130 in the early years. That’s something to build on. Smith and Vizquel were powerless, but they had good strike zone judgment. Escobar doesn’t strike out that much compared to other players (due to good ability to make contact), but he isn’t walking, either. Vizquel and Smith had better walk rates, and struck out even less often than Escobar. The couldn’t drive the ball, either, but they knew the strike zone, which enabled them to add more value with their walks and later on to develop a bit more hitting ability because they could pick their pitches better.

To summarize: Escobar has a bit of time to improve with the bat, but there isn’t a much of a foundation of skills to build on. To give credit where it’s due though: he’s definitely one of the top four shortstops in the division this season.