A couple of Trades the Royals Could Make before the deadline.
by Jack Marsh on Jun 30, 2011 8:57 PM EDT
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PrintThe Royals are out of contention this year, and the trade deadline is creeping up on us. I thought I'd list a couple of trades the Royals could make that I've heard people talking about, or that I think are reasonable.
Let's get started.
Trade #1: Joakim Soria, Mike Aviles, Jeff Francis, and random High A arm to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus and Shelby Miller (AA).
Why this is reasonable: The Cardinals are in need of a top closer, a utility man, and a vet starter. Joakim Soria is a top closer (Which is a hole the Royals can easily fill), Mike Aviles is a decent utility man, and Jeff Francis is a vet starter. Soria is under team control until 2014. So is Rasmus, who has not been hitting well this year, but has a lot of potential. Shelby Miller is a BA top 20 prospect who is expected to get into the majors early next year, and who has kicked ass at High-A and AA this year. This trade is completely reasonable, and totally worth it, especially if we toss in a High-A arm to sweeten the deal.
Trade #2: Wil Myers, Tim Melville, and 1 or 2 Low-A arms to the Dodgers for Chad Billingsley.
Why this is reasonable: Billingsley is an ace-caliber pitcher who is about to make $12 Million a year. The Dodgers are bankrupt, and are also willing to trade away some of their good players (Except for Kemp and Ethier) to clear up the payroll. If we offer them one blue chip prospect in Myers, a very good prospect with a lot of upside in Melville, and one or two developing arms, we could easily get the Dodgers to bite on this one. This trade would make sense because we already have a solid offensive base in the majors in Gordon, Butler, Hosmer, and Moustakas that we could build around. We don't need Myers as bad as we need solid starting pitching. That could be here sooner than later if we trade for Billingsley. This trade could happen either before the deadline, or in the off-season, and it is about as reasonable as it gets.
Please be sure to discuss both of these trades in the comments. I hope these can both happen.
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Comments
that first trade is incredibly unrealistic...
the cards would more than likely laugh at a miller for soria swap…and then you have rasmus for two spare parts.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 30, 2011 9:04 PM EDT reply actions
What do you think of the second one?
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
dumb
Need Myers. Still have no idea what we got w/Hosmer and Moose. I take it you want to extend Franceour? Of course you do.
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
disagree but dont be a jerk about it.
If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.
by labbadabba on Jun 30, 2011 10:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The second one really depends on the timetable of when the team's going to compete.
Is it going to be 2012/13? If so, that might be a decent move. If it’s later (which I think is likely), no way I’m giving up Myers now.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Well, the Royals organization clearly thinks that it will be 2012 or 2013, so, the move makes sense from that perspective.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
No, Dayton said 2012...
well until this year. Now its 2013. Next year it will be 2015. Always 2-3 years away. Youth movement takes time, dammit!
Time = infinity, evidently.
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
....Which is exactly what I said.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
umm...
i dont know that mlb is going to let the dodgers trade away their valuable assets…that devalues the team by alot….i think ethier or kemp are far more likely simply b/c they’re under team control for less time
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 30, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really.
In terms of actual financial value, especially in the wake of a bankruptcy, the players themselves are an almost imperceptible amount of the value of a major league franchise because any asset value they account for directly is counterbalanced by their salary†. In fact, the most valuable part of a franchise is simply the franchise itself (proven out by recent expansion fees), followed by the stadium if the team actually owns it, followed by (depending on market) either the value of the regional television contract or the value of the trademarks owned by the franchise.
(If you doubt the value of the trademarks, consider: there’s a reason we have the Houston Texans and not the Houston Oilers, and the only reason the Atlanta Thrashers are now the Winnepeg Jets rather than the Winnepeg Mooselickers is because since the NHL is in control of the Coyotes, they deemed it was in the best interest of the NHL to return those rights to Winnepeg even though it devalues the Phoenix franchise.)
† – exception: if you have a team full of $10M players who are under contract for the next seven years at $5M apiece… then, yes, the players suddenly become valuable assets on the bottom line. But in general, the player asset/liability math works out to be a wash.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
by jonfmorse on Jul 1, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
What the hell, Marsh?
The only trade that would upgrade this sorry excuse for a team is to trade Dayton Moore for a bag of garbage.
Dayton Moore is the reason for this mess. Or are we still blaming Baird, um 6 years later.
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
Why do you blame all the world's problems on DM?
Seriously.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
by Jack Marsh on Jun 30, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
not the world's problems
just the Royals problems
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
It's a pretty fair point...he has been GM for 5 years now.
Things are slowly turning a corner, not sure if it’s the right corner but there are pieces that look better.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Marsh
you a Packers fan? Wouldnt that make you a Red Sox, Yankees, some other bandwagon fan of the hour? Please.
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
No?
I’ve been a Packers fan all my life! My whole family is fans of them! I hate the Yankees, and I am not a raving fan of the Sox.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Marsh
you want to get real starting pitching? Cant trade our underperforming AA guys and ML garbage like Melky.
Trade Hosmer, Crow, Moose…players like that. Gotta trade talent to get for talent. Quantity is no substitute.
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
I would consider Soria to be talent, and the other guys are serviceable players that fill spots that the Cardinals desperately need.
Maybe instead of trading those guys for Rasmus and Miller, we could trade them for just Miller. Would that make more sense to you guys?
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
i hghly doubt that they'd trade miller....
but that would be a fair trade probably. i doubt that they’re going all in this year though with pujols being out…unless they can get on a hot streak soon
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 30, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
quit polluting every thread with your nonsense....
people are trying to have reasonable baseball conversation…you’re bringing nothing to the table when you comment
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jun 30, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
wrong
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
by DaytonSucks on Jun 30, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
no, he's right
the topic is trade scenarios. trade scenarios.
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 1, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Should you be uninterested in the topic
you might choose not to reply to the thread.
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
If these trades went through...
The rotation would look like this:
1-Billingsley
2-Duffy
3-Hochevar/Chen
4-Miller
5-Paulino
CL-Crow.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
I think Soria to the Phillies
For Cosart and Trevor May. Both good young RH starting pitchers. We would probably throw in Melky or Frenchy and they would add a low A arm
by billski8 on Jun 30, 2011 10:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
that could work if the soria decide investing in soria is a better option than investing in ryan madson.
i don’t know about the return, but the team itself could make sense.
by BeauJackson on Jun 30, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't know
they have like 4 potential closers on the DL. i could see a conversation if they stay there, or even if one is back, but i’m not sure they need him this year.
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 1, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
first blush
we’re not giving up nearly enough in the first trade, and probably too much in the second…soria/aviles/francis might get us miller plus a random prospect back, or maybe we throw someone else in like gia or lough to get rasmus included?
in the second trade, maybe we have to throw in an A-ball pitcher, but if you compare it to the greinke trade (billingsley hasn’t been near the pitcher that greinke has) myers, melville and an A-ball pitcher should be enough
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jun 30, 2011 11:28 PM EDT reply actions
Bills has been much more consistent than Greinke
He doesn’t have the sensational peak year that Greinke had, but Bills has performed at an All Star level for the last four seasons.
This post was not predicting anything, I was just naming some trades that could work.
This is proof that you will go out of your way to criticize each and every one of my posts.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Do you just have something against people that are younger than you?
Did a mob of angry 14-year-olds storm through your house and kill your parents or something?
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
by Jack Marsh on Jun 30, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Marsh
lets use the Greinke trade as an example. Lets say something like James Shields.
Would take Escobar, Myers, Coleman, and Jason Adam.
You want to get the stud SP? Prepare to pay. Now what do YOU think about the above?
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
by DaytonSucks on Jun 30, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Why use the Greinke trade as an example?
Do you know something about Billingsley the rest of us have missed?
Well, I think they are reasonable.
You seem to have this unfathomable hatred for anything I say or do, and I’m kinda starting to get sick of it.
You could at least be polite.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Sir,
your trade ideas suck.
/code
Does that feel better?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
You could at least get it through your head.
You’re confusing politeness with admiration, adoration, or something of that sort. Just because I’m the only one being blunt doesn’t mean I’m the only one that doesn’t like your work. The comment sections of our posts are always littered with polite comments, but very critical comments nonetheless. I don’t have a personal vendetta against you. I just don’t care about your feelings.
Whatever. You're a jerk.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Jack, whether or not hawk, Warden, I or others are jerks (and in varying degrees, I’m sure we are), when you post something full of your opinions, you have to expect that some people are going to disagree with you, and perhaps intensely so. When your opinions include blockbuster trades, this is going to be doubly true. Your posts invite discussion, often explicitly. Expect much of that discussion to be critical and blunt. Such is the way of the world and especially the internet.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
It's mainly Hawkins.
He advises me not to post because of my age, which supposedly means to him that it’s impossible for me to have any insight on anything. I understand, but, he criticizes EVERYTHING I post. at least you actually agree with some of the points I made.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Yeah, keep posting
Just remember, when you’re in a vicious cockfight, keep your head on a swivel.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
TWSS?
If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.
by labbadabba on Jul 1, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Don't mention your age
On the Internet everybody is really a dog. For all you guys know I’m a tranny hooker in Tijuana. Scott’s not really a New York lawyer, he’s an ex-H&R Block tax preparer who pulled a fast one on the IRS and is now typing from the minimum-security federal pen in Danville.
People just won’t take you seriously if you say you’re 14, for obvious reasons: one tends to gain experience through life, and you’re not even done with your first fifth of it. (Lucky you. There’s a lot out there you’re going to find out about soon.)
You seem like a bright person. If you didn’t mention your age people would have no idea you’re a kid. And keep reading and observing because that’s how you learn stuff.
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
If I could tell a high school freshman two things
they would be:
1. The girls are just as nervous as you guys are.
2. Don’t drink and drive. Go ahead and drink. Smoke some pot while you’re at it, but stay off the hard stuff. Just don’t drive, or ride with a drunk driver. This is the one single thing most likely to fuck up your life.
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
1: I know. They wouldn’t always be acting all dorky around us guys if they weren’t nervous about their image.
2: My family has an addictive personality, so, I may or may not drink, as that may fuck up my life just as bad as drunk driving.
I hear a lot of “Adults have much harder lives than you, so you should be grateful that your life isn’t hard.” My response would be that little kids have easy lives (Unless they live in Darfur or something), and I think that that is the point where your life is the easiest. It’s hard to be in high school because people expect you to take up responsibility for everything you do, you have to get good grades or else you are going to suffer (I will be going to a college-prep school, so I will probably have to worry about this more than most other kids), and you are expected to act like a grownup. It’s just as hard to be an adult as it is a teenager, but, in different areas.
Most adults don’t remember how hard high school was because they only remember the fun times they had in high school. It’s harder than it looks.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
I only remember the bad times in HS
I’m sure it was more fun than I remember.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
HS and College
I had a lot of fun, but they were also the most stressful 8 years of my life…I’m probably lucky that way
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 1, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I’m not far removed from high school and college (compared to many people) and I remember it being a cake walk. Maybe the last 2 years of college were less so because I wasn’t a business major, but everything else was pretty easy. I found that my teachers and professors had low expectations so I was glad to put in minimal effort and still get good grades. Perhaps I was blessed with intelligence, or maybe I just learned how to cheat the system.
As far as girls go, I was super shy in high school. It got to a point where girls were approaching me, which was weird. But liquid courage really does word wonders for that.
I went to a competetive college prep high school
and played sports, days were class – practice – study – sleep. Went to engineering school while working, so it was class – work – study – sleep. Then I graduated and it became work – play – sleep.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 1, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotcha.
My high school days were class – practice – work – sleep (notice, no studying) and I got winters off from practice. College got a lot easier. That went: class – be worthless – study a little bit, maybe – play – sleep.
Don't think you're talking to me are you?
I wish I was 14.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Thought I was talking to Jack
It’s still pretty good advice, isn’t it?
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
"For all you guys know I’m a tranny hooker in Tijuana"
Ugh, I suddenly feel uneasy about the time we met up.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Were you the Korean guy with the latex fetish?
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
Maybe
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
BOOM!
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 1, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I advised you not to post not because of your age, but because of your posts.
Nobody else, to my knowledge, posts trade ideas and future rosters as much as you do. And as you know, your trade ideas and future lineups are seldom realistic. It’s certainly okay to post, but it seems like you post things like this twice a week. I said from the beginning that I think you should be reading, discussing, and thinking more than actually writing. Read FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, Baseball America, SB Nation, and ESPN. There are others, but most people on here read stuff from other sites every day, and it makes us think, and maybe we learn a little something we didn’t know before. Don’t forget all of the great baseball books out there as well. I’m always reading new stuff too. Of course, stuff written about baseball has a tendency to not be black and white, so keep that in mind.
I actually read all of those sites except for hardball times.
I’ll give it a look.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Perhaps we can get along better now.
That will most likely include me not saying anything, but I want you to know that your age has never been the reason for my harsh criticism. It was the weird trade deals and roster predictions that are mostly unrealistic and way too optimistic. Anyway, I don’t want to do this anymore. By the way, I don’t think you should drink or smoke if you don’t want to. In college it might be hard not to, but when someone advises you to drink, but not drink and drive and to smoke pot if you get the chance, that’s really BS. I can’t imagine where I’d be if my parents told me that. I like how my parents did it… don’t freak out about underage drinking and your kids will learn their limits without threatening their lives. To my knowledge, the kids who almost die from alcohol poisoning never drank in high school.
that last line is so very true...
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 1, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes indeed
They get away from authority and cut loose and go crazy if they don’t kind of ease into it when it’s harder to get the booze.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 5:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I should have said
“Go ahead and drink and smoke pot if you want to.” I didn’t want to come off as just another hypocritical adult telling a teenager “do as I say, not as I do/did.” The chances of Jack’s drinking a few beers and smoking a few joints actually messing up his life are pretty slim, and he showed some maturity when he said he probably wouldn’t because his family shows addictive traits.
However, if he is a healthy middle-class suburban teenager, his most likely cause of death or serious injury for the next twenty years or so is a car accident, and the best way to get in a car accident is driving drunk. Also, it’s the way he’s most likely to get in serious trouble with the cops, which is something nobody wants to do. Finally, he might hurt or kill someone else, which he doesn’t want to do. Oh, yeah, it’ll also play hell with his car insurance payments.
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
by Juancho on Jul 3, 2011 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jack, I would like you to take this as constructive
because I don’t have an axe to grind or anything.
1) I’ve kinda been annoyed with your comments since day one. Not violently so, not even to the point where I really feel the urge to argue them. Just mildly. I couldn’t even put my finger on it, at least until today.
2) I had no idea you were 14… until today.
These two things go together. In fact, now that I know you’re 14, I am less annoyed by your posts here, because now I know that there’s a certain level of legitimate and honest naivete and innocence involved in them. Now, rather than thinking you’re a somewhat obtuse adult, I think you’re a smart 14-year-old.
Think about that last sentence. You’re correct if you deduce that there’s an equal amount of compliment and ridicule in it; take both to heart. And keep posting. It’s a good way to learn how to properly deal with grouchy old bastards.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
my only word of advice would be to limit the number of similar posts...
nobody has a problem with one of these posts but the 5 or so similar ones over the past couple of weeks gets to be too much. keep throwing your proposals out there…we’ll keep critiquing, but try to keep them to this or one of your other posts or to a post already on the site.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 1, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
And you may want to try Royals Scout
They love this kind of stuff over there. Not that its a bad site – quite the contrary, but random trade speculation like this is more in line with their site than this one.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
the first trade is a no go.
why would a contending team trade their starting cf’er if they won’t get one in return? and a young starting cf’er on a contending team no less? i don’t think they’re giving up miller for anything in this trade market unless they make a push for jose reyes when they would have to include him.
Jack, just to clarify
When I brought up the Billingsley trade it was in the context of that post, which was how we could make the leap in 2012. I think if we were going to make the leap next year, Billingsley would be our best bet. You should keep in mind that even though the Dodgers are in trouble, that doesn’t mean they are going to fire sale their players. It does however mean they will be a little more receptive to a deal that gives them some good young talent that’s cheap.
That said, I agree with Gopherballs, Retro and several other posters. I don’t think the rest of the team is ready to push for 2012. So, giving up a prospect like Myers is really too steep a price to pay right now for a pitcher we don’t need yet. And, if we are ready to push in 2013, I’d rather spend to get an ace in the FA market next year than give up a prospect for one.
by Prime2U on Jun 30, 2011 11:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'll defer to the others on the first trade, but the second looks like we're overpaying a bit
Billingsley is a worse pitcher than Greinke signed to a more expensive contract. Even though the contract has a lot longer to run, I’d guess Greinke had substantially more surplus value.
I’d also rather see us trading from our depth of minor league position players than our shortage of minor league pitchers.
Above all, I’d rather not see any prospects traded off this year. Move Frenchy, Melky and Francis, but let’s wait and see what we have and what we need before we start shipping off the minor league parts.
Billingsley is a 3-4 WAR pitcher with potential to be something more
I don’t know that 12 million a year is overpaying. We got a really nice contract with Zack. But, if we got him now, the first 12 million would be pretty pointless, and giving up Myers definitely makes it too costly.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 1:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Potential for more?
He’s 27 years old with 5-6 years of MLB under his belt. And he’ll have to adjust to a new league. Isn’t he pretty much what he is? I don’t think guys his age typically jump in perforamnce.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
There's a little potential still there
He’s only 27, not like he’s in his 30’s and going to fade soon. He’s shown glimpses of putting it all together, like in (I think) 09 when he was dominating to start the season and made the AS team, but then he really fell off the second half. I think it’s entirely possible he could have a couple of 5+ WAR seasons. Not going to put out 8-9 WAR sometime obviously. But yes he still has the potential for some improvement, particularly if he’s backed by a good defense, which we seem to be putting together. He just does not give up HRs, amd with Eskie and the OF we are putting together (once Melky is gone) I think he’ll get some help there.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 9:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's benefitting a lot from playing in the NL West
His tRA (park-adjusted) numbers are consistently worse than his FIP (which are only league-adjusted) numbers. I think he’d have to improve just to keep his FIP (and therefore his WAR) where it’s been in LA.
Are you looking at tRA or tERA?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
tRA and tRA+
because it’s defense neutral.
I guess unearned runs should be accounting for the majority (what about .4?) of the difference.
On tRA+ Billingsley has been:
2009: 109
2010: 119
2011: 102
Meche was:
2007: 115
2008: 116
2009 – 2010: 80
So Billingsley has bit below pre-injury Meche numbers once you adjust for park.
The reason I asked is because you can’t compare tRA directly to FIP. FIP (and xFIP and tERA) are all scaled to ERA. tRA is scaled to RA, so it is on a different, higher scale. I think tRA is a very good stat and your point about how Billingsley really isn’t great is well made. But if you’re going to compare a stat like that to FIP, you need to use something like Fangraphs’s tERA.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Good to know
I’d thought tERA wasn’t defense-independent, but now that I see that it is, I’ll switch to it.
Fangraphs doesn’t say, but I assume that tERA is park-adjusted since it’s based on tRA.
Don’t know. Conceptually it is very similar to Stat Corner’s tRA, but it is calculated somewhat differently (although I don’t think the differences are huge). AndI wouldn’t assume that it is adjusted the same. My guess is that it is adjusted for park or league the same way Fangraphs adjusts FIP and xFIP.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
My understanding is that FIP and xFIP are not park-adjusted
tRA is park-adjusted, but I thought FIP and xFIP were only adjusted to overall scoring level
Then I would assume their version of tERA is not park adjusted either. But my assumption is of questionable value.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at your numbers...
But, to back my stance, I’d say look also at 2008, and look at the numbers for the first half of 2009. He was much better then. That’s the potential I’m referring too. And no he’s not one of the elite aces, but he is a very consistent, very good pitcher with a good contract and good value. Not that I’m actually in favor of trading for him, but if we were going to trade this year, I still think he is the best bet.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 5:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think you'd want to value him for trade purposes based on the best stretch he ever had
I don’t have a problem with trading for Billingsley beyond adjusting for NL West effect, but I think the Greinke trade is a bad comp. The Brewers were getting far more suprlus value in Greinke at his contract than we’d be getting in Billingsley at his contract
Ahh yeah I'd agree
That’s why I never compared him to the Greinke trade. The Brewers came out well with that one, but so did we. Billingsley is still good value though, and I don’t think he’s shown the best he has to offer yet. Once again though, it’s a move I’d only make if I though we’d contend in 2012, and I don’t.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 9:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, why target Rasmus?
Are you thinking Cain can’t stick at CF or would you be looking to flip one of them quickly?
Ignoring the wisdom of such a trade
There’s no problem with playing two good/decent CFers. Usually, moving a CFer to a corner OF spot means the team isn’t losing any production. While the CFer’s bat is usually light for a corner OF position, he makes up for it with defense which is usually much better than average for the position. David Dejesus is a good example of this. I’d love to have an OF of Gordon, Cain and Rasmus.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I just mean given that we have holes elsewhere, why target an OF?
We’ve got a pretty good looking players/prospects for all three slots (Gordon/Cain/Myers). I guess if you’re looking to trade Myers, that creates a potential hole, but it still seems like targetting a catcher or 2B would be alot more helpful among position players
I think we're actually pretty thin in the OF
Gordon looks very good, but he’ll only be here for two more years. Cain and Myers are prospects. I like them, but they are anything but sure bets to succeed in the majors. And while Cain looks MLB-ready, we have no idea when or if Myers will make it to the majors. And other than that, unless we’re talking about 4th or 5th OFers, the cupboard is bare above the A-ball level.
it still seems like targetting a catcher or 2B would be alot more helpful among position players
That may well be true. But I think you need to get the talent you can get for any area of need (and I think the OF qualifies). And the problem with acquiring a catcher or 2B is that such prospects are scarce and thus harder to come by. There is always a shortage of good catching prospects. And there’s a shortage of good 2B prospects because minor leaguers who play second base, usually aren’t very good. So you could go out and get a SS prospect to play 2B, but good SS prospects are highly valued and thus quite expensive. I think there is less of a shortage of OFers and thus they are easier to get. So if Moore is trading, sure get a good fit for catcher or 2B if you can. But don’t hesitate to fill in the Royals thinness in the OF if that’s the best talent you can get.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm keeping my fingers crossed
That D-Robs bat will continue the progression it started last year. Not getting my hope up too much though. But man, if he could hit just a little better, he’d make a great OF addition.
You don’t think we could extend Gordon for just a little more than Butler at this point? Sure Gordon should have more value down the road, but he doesn’t have the string of 3-4 WAR seasons that Billy had before Hos extension either.
by Prime2U on Jul 1, 2011 1:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That D-Robs bat will continue the progression it started last year
Unfortunately he’s taken a step backwards so far this year. He’s 23 in AA and at the moment his development has stalled.
You don’t think we could extend Gordon for just a little more than Butler at this point?
Extending Gordon is a definitely possibility. If I’m the Royals GM, I’d be working on it right now (actually, I would have tried a couple years ago when I felt confident that he was at least going to be a league average player). But I wouldn’t be confident that I could get it done and that I’d have Gordon for more than two years. It takes two to tango and who knows how Gordon feels about signing a contract extension that keeps him in KC longer than he has to right now.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Gordon was on Petro's show this week
and indicated that he’d love to stay in KC. Whether that was talk or not actual meaning remains to be seen.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
“This breakout left fielder can be yours….if The Price Is Right!”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
If We Can
Fix the rotation, he might like it here. Gordon, Butler, Hosmer and Moustakas could make a fine2-5 or 3-6. Myers would balance that nicely if he succeeds.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Call me overly simplistic but I think he’ll like it here if the money is right. And whether or not he thinks the money is right depends on whether he values the certainty of guaranteed money for the next X years or the possibility of a really big payday 2 1/2 years from now on the FA market.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2011 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Mazzaro
8 ER tonight lol
No, regurgitating something Scott Mckinney says or checking baseball reference does NOT make you a "stats guy".
And it certainly won't make Vin Mazzaro pitch any better.
No
No way the Cards make that first deal. First of all, they have five starters – what are they going to do with Francis? Second, what are they going to do with Aviles? They already have a bunch of mediocre utility infielders – Skip Schumaker, Daniel Delasco, Pete Kozma, Tyler Greene, Nick Punto – Aviles doesn’t really represent much of an upgrade over any of them. Next, they’re not going to move their top prospect – a pitcher no less, AND a solid, cheap, young starting player to acquire a closer. Look at the history of closers. They typically do not bring that much. I think if Soria is dealt, he is probably dealt all by himself and if you’re lucky we’ll get a solid B prospect, maybe a B-/C+ prospect, and a flier on an 18/19 year old kid. Not Shelby Miller and Colby Rasmus.
The second trade is much more realistic in the sense that it is close to fair value. But I don’t see why the Royals make that move when they are nowhere near close to contention. Better to see if Myers and/or Melville become something good for them than sink $40 million or whatever it is in Billingsley – who will be moving to a tougher park and a tougher league. Gil Meche didn’t bring us out of the doldrums, so I don’t see why Billingsley would either. Wait til we get decent before making moves like this. We need to hang onto guys like Myers and Melville to be part of our future.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Just a tip for future trade proposals
Look at what the other team needs and has a surplus of. For example, I think you just saw “Cards need closer” and wanted to make a deal for Soria. And you wanted Shelby Miller and Colby Rasmus. But you knew that wasn’t a fair deal. So you threw in some spare parts, hoping that would even it out. But it doesn’t even out (for one, because Francis and Aviles aren’t very valuable), but for two because the Cards have no use for those parts.
Sit down and pretend you’re the GM of the Cards. What do you want and what would you be willing to give up? Make the best deal you can for the Cardinals. Does it still help the Royals? Well then its a fair deal. Otherwise it just looks like an unrealistic fanboy trade.
Appreciate your zeal though. Trade season is fun.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Another tip
the teams usually want established MLB guys to help them compete now or young guys to help them rebuild for the future, but not both.
Right
And teams competing for the playoffs aren’t going to give up established players.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The only trade I would consider woth STL would be
Soria for Rasmus straight up. Miller is interesting, but they’ll never part with him. Maybe a Butler/Aviles for Miller type deal but they’d never do that either. Don’t forget that they just got Punto back from the DL and are convinced that he’s actually good.
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 1, 2011 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
The Baconator for Skip the Royal Killer
Maybe Tony LaDouche can get Billy off the bacon and start him on toasted ravioli. Besides, Schumaker is my granddaughter’s favorite player… her dad took her to a Cards caravan to get a shirt signed and she lost it before getting it home 3 years ago. Skippy had the entire team sign a replacement and send it to her. Skippy remembered her 3 years later at a game in StL and they chatted a few minutes. Made that 6 year old girl’s day for sure.
I think Francis and Aviles/Betemit
to the Tigers could make some sense… They move Phil Coke back to the bullpen and let Aviles play some 2nd/3rd.
Their minor league cupboard is pretty bare though. It would be hard to pry Andy Oliver away for just those 2.
I don't think those guys well net much
So I’m sure the Tigers have a few mediocre spare arms they could send us in return. Not Oliver.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Melky to the BoSox
for Felix Doubront could make some sense… They are looking for a RF
Makes some sense
Doubront probably has more value than that, although its not totally crazy. Melky doesn’t seem like their kinda guy though to be honest. They tend to like good OBA guys.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Please don’t bring Billingsley to KC. Reminds me too much of Gil Meche. I say develop the young arms we have in the minors like the Tigers (Verlander, Porcello, Bonderman, Perry, etc.), Marlins (Johnson, Volstad, Sanchez, Nolasco), A’s (Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Gonzalez, McCarthy, Cahill, Anderson, Ross) and Rays (Price, Garza, Shields, Hellickson, Davis, Niemann) have done in the past.
We have plenty of potential quality SP’s in the mix that will be ready in the future, some closer to the majors than others:
1. Mike Montgomery
2. Jake Odorizzi
3. Aaron Crow
4. Noel Arguelles
5. Will Smith
6. Buddy Baumann
7. Jason Adam
8. Tim Melville
9. Chris Dwyer
10. John Lamb
11. Yordano Ventura
12. Elisaul Pimentel
13. Leonel Santiago
14. Tyler Sample
Of course, we have some riff raff to clear off the major league and Omaha roster, such as SOS, Suppan, Chavez, Mendoza, Mazzaro, Francis, Davies.
If I get a top quality starter in trade for a bunch of top prospects, I would only go for names like:
1. Gio Gonzalez
2. David Price
3. Cliff Lee
4. James Shields
5. Matt Garza
6. Daniel Hudson
7. Clayton Kershaw
8. Jonathan Sanchez
9. Matt Cain
No way I’m trading Wil Myers unless it is involved in a trade for the names above.
David
by david.lowe on Jul 3, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
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