When Will the Royals Get Rid of Kyle Davies?
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 12, 2011 2:24 PM EDT
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PrintWhile Fangraphs still shows Kyle Davies as a replacement level pitcher, and some believe he may be a future fifteen game winner, it seems that many Royals fans have simply had enough Hiram for one season. The Royals owe Kyle $3.2 million this year, or approximately $1.4 million the remainder of the season. When will they cut ties with him?
Keep in mind that the Royals will sit Danny Duffy once he reaches his "max innings limit", and that Bruce Chen and/or Jeff Francis may be dealt in the next few weeks. Is it imperative we keep Davies around simply for the depth? Or can we make do with guys like Everett Teaford, Vin Mazzarro and Sean O'Sullivan (is he coming back this year?) filling in?
When does the madness end?
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I think he will pitch into next year
at least until after the HR Derby at the K
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Jul 12, 2011 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Suppan, please. I can't believe I'm saying this.
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Jul 12, 2011 2:53 PM EDT reply actions
HAHA
Suppan-you know somethings wrong when we are callin for Suppan to get here
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
In that same 810 interview that you linked
Moore said that he expected that the Royals would make a trade that brings the starting rotation back to 5 members. He didn’t hedge at all with that comment, so it seems that Moore is confident that one or both of Francis and Chen will be traded soon. (He could have been indicating a Davies trade, I suppose, but…..yeah, he wasn’t indicating a Davies trade.)
Moore also confirmed that Duffy will be rested at the end of the season.
So if Davies were cut, we’d be sitting with Hoch, Francis/Chen and Paulino as our only 3 starters. I don’t think the Royals would mind have one hole in the rotation to experiment with Crow or Monty or Teaford, but I don’t see them cutting Davies just to create a second hole. Davies will be here through September……
Agreed
Also they already admitted Crow was not the set-up man or closer of the future, I am guessing that when trades are made Crow will move to the rotation, and also Monty gets a shot when duffy leaves……I am desperate for the Royals to be rid of Davies…
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
I think that's right, since no one wants to trade for Davies, he's here at least through the season.
In the interview, GMDM also said he expected serious interest into Davies in the coming free agent market. He is wrong. I voted that I expect them bring Davies back next season – on a relatively small contract, to fill out the rotation and/or as an insurance policy.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 12, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Then...
they gave Davies a RAISE…..thats what really irked me.
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
Arbitration
They had to give him a raise, or release him. And keeping him for the price he came for was the right move at the time, based on his performance up to that time.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 13, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't recall it being remotely controversial at the time
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Most of us knew the pitching was in horrendous shape,
that goes a long way in being comfortable with 3 million for an average to just below average starter with possible upside. However, it’s time to move on now.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Crow won't be starting at all this year.
Getting him back to the rotation is an offseason project. The rotation will be down to Hoch, Paulino, Chen, Mazzaro, Teaford/O’Sullivan. (I believe Francis is traded, but Chen stays).
Don't we also need to make room for Kuroda?
We’ll need a good starter for the stretch run for the division title, right?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
With Davies cut (and a Francis or Chen trade)
they’d have Hoch, Francis/Chen, Paulino, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, Teaford, Suppan, and possibly Crow (if they’re really serious about starting him). That’s not even including Montgomery (assuming they shut him down early, too).
Now, that’s a craptastic rotation, no matter which 5 you end up going with for the rest of the year. However, I’d rather watch any of those listed than Davies, as they all have less MLB starts/experience (with the exception of Francis/Chen and Suppan). And each of these guys (with the exception of Suppan) has a much better chance of having a future with the Royals than Davies.
Now, does any of that mean that Dayton will actually DFA Davies? Of course not.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 12, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
We won't see Montgomery.
DM said in the interview that they never expected to see him this year, he would only be a junior in college right now, and he doesn’t have to go on the 40 man until after 2012. He also bullshitted everybody about how even when Montgomery was struggling, the numbers weren’t telling the whole story—not at all mentioning his program in between starts. This tells me they prefer to keep him at AAA for the remainder of the year and shut up down whenever it is appropriate. To me, that seems to be in around 40-50 innings because he threw ~103 innings last year and is at 90 IP this year.
I didn't take it that way
Moore said that in the offseason, they expected Monty to spend this season in AAA, but when Monty came out dominating in ST, they hoped that Monty would force their hand. Monty hasn’t done that yet, but he still could force a promotion in August/September. The 40 man roster issue does play against him, however, as giving Monty a cup of coffee this season will likely subject another prospect to the Rule 5 draft this winter.
You bring up a good point...
Take that, plus they’ll have to shut him down before September anyway. Now, what’s the point? Then the big question becomes whether he starts next year with the big league club. Probably depends on ST performance, but he would need to be shut down again next year unless we were in the pennant race. Although, he might make it to September next year if they increase 30 IP per year.
This is the funniest thing you've written in weeks...
“Is it imperative we keep Davies around simply for the depth?”
DEPTH! Hahahaha….
I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jul 12, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions
The intellectual depth
Hiram is an expert in inorganic chemistry, and enjoys performing experiments. You’ll never see him on the road without his chemistry set. He keeps the other guys in the clubhouse loose with his wacky concoctions. Once he mixed hydrochloric acid with sodium hydroxide and set Kyle Farnsworth’s hair on fire. Boy, the fellows all cracked up over that one.
Between innings when there’s nothing to do Hiram entertains his teammates with discussions of Boyle’s law and Avogadro’s number. During the off-season he runs his own meth lab, preparing enough super-greenies for the whole team throughout the entire season.
"First we got the bomb and that was good, 'cause we love peace and motherhood
Then Russia got the bomb but that's okay, 'cause the balance of power's maintained that way
Then France got the bomb, but don't you grieve, 'cause they're on our side (I believe)
Then China got the bomb, but have no fears, they can't wipe us out for at least five years" --Tom Lehrer
by Juancho on Jul 13, 2011 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
depth?
I wouldn’t even keep Davies around to clean birdshit off the fountains..
by KennyPowers_from_Scout on Jul 12, 2011 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
someone has to pick up the balls after batting practice
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I don't think there's any reason to fear him returning in 2012
But sadly I think he’s here to stay for the rest of this season. I doubt that Dayton will have his pet project come to such an inglorious end as a DFA or release, and there can’t be any trade market for a guy with negative career WAR, especially about whom one could field a very strong case for the worst starting pitcher in all of history.
He’ll suck for two and a half more months and we’ll never have to talk about him again. He might kick around in the minors for a couple of seasons, but it won’t be with the Royals. Then he’ll retire to what I’m assuming is a pretty well-accommodated mansion and wife who, if she isn’t a professional model, could be one if she wanted to be.
Ah hell, we’ve made it this far, what’s another dozen starts? Sure we could be getting some valuable starting experience for younger guys in a time where it won’t hurt the team long-term, but who doesn’t want to root for Kyle’s career numbers to get even worse as he runs out his Polish Victory Lap?
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 12, 2011 8:05 PM EDT reply actions
Davies does not have a negative career WAR.
It is even positive this season. His career WAR is 5.4
Go Royals!
If thats true...
I officially no longer believe WAR is good way to determine a players worth….
BTW, if your gonna mention a carreer war, I think its best to give the Average WAR rather than his accumalative WAR-It WILL confuse some people
Cap it, and watch the players association strike it. http://budtheclark.mlblogs.com/
WAR is a counting stat.
There’s no such thing as “Average WAR.” Like all counting stats you can convert it to a rate stat, but nobody uses WAR that way in normal conversation, so you’re more likely to confuse people if you start doing that. For instance, over his career, Hiram has averaged .007 fWAR per inning pitched. That actually tells me less than the fact that he has accumulated a career total of 5.4.
I think Soria's Unibrow is using B-R WAR
which has Soria at negative 3.2 or something like that.
B-R WAR = -2.9 (-0.4 per season)
FG WAR = 5.4 (+0.8 per season)
Big discrepancies in 2006 (B/R = -2.0; FG = -0.3) and 2010 (B/R = 0.2; FG = 2.0).
So the question would be whether you believe Hiram’s 2010 was replacement level or worth 2 wins.
Fun Tidbit, B-R Most Similar Players through age 26:
1. Jamey Wright
2. Brian Meadows
4. Jeff Suppan
10. Jaret Wright
and…8. Chris Carpenter. Really?
I think Carpenter was on the DL all the time til he was 30 or so
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 13, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Looks like he essentially sat out much of '02 and all of '03
With a torn labrum. Came back in ’04 at age 29 as a different pitcher. Maybe Davies should try for Tommy John.
I was going off of that Royals Authority article
And finally by WAR:
Mal Eason – -2.7
Chappie McFarland – -2.7
Kyle Davies – -1.9
Scott Olsen – -0.2
Jason Bere – 0.3
That’s right… Only four starting pitchers in the history of the game have thrown 700 or more innings as a starter and posted negative WAR. And our Davies is one of them.
That said, I tend to use Fangraphs WAR like you, which does indeed have him at 5.4 for his career. Honestly the positive 5.4 seems a little more believable. I’m guessing the RA article was using baseball-reference WAR, which has him at -2.9 for his career, though he does have a positive WAR as a Royal.
Year Age Tm Lg IP GS R Rrep Rdef aLI RAR WAR Salary
7 Seasons 756.2 142 507 476 -5 1.0 -31 -2.9 $3,433,500
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 13, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The Royals Authority article was crap. Weak analysis using the wrong stats because that what was easily available to the writer. The problem is that he gave meaning to those stats that they really don’t have. And he didn’t realize that his population elevated above a great many MLB SP’s because it had a high minimum. Most SP’s don’t end up making many starts in their careers. Oh well, it fits the meme of the moment.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 13, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well the radio personalities have certainly ran with this ball
And Davies is universally hailed as the worst starting pitcher in whenever on the AM dial in town.
At least
I heard Soren using (Fangraphs?) data that said Davies fastball was the worst (most hittable) pitch in the big leagues this year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Someone needs to tell him not to use that data
Of course, I don’t think he’s interested in hearing about defense independent stats.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 14, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Why is it bad data?
SSS?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
"Don't rely on ERA"- you know the answer to that. As for why to not rely too heavily on "Pitch Value", NYRoyal posted a comment summarizing, with the link below -
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/31/2068855/pitch-fx-primer
it’s from the first link in kansasjohn’s comment below, to a fanshot by KC Tiger.
Two excerpts of blurbs from NYRoyal’s summary:
these numbers do not try to adjust for luck on balls in play. Thus if a pitcher has a lower BABIP, he’ll have high run values on his pitches, while a high BABIP will result in lower run values.
Remember, the value of a pitch is NOT independent of the quality of the same pitcher’s other pitches. In other words, if a pitcher is an excellent sinkerballer, the pitchers off speed pitches may wind up with higher run values per pitch than the sinker.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 14, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's interesting stuff that NYR linked to
I forget it all the time when looking at the Fangraphs Pitch Value numbers – big grains of salt when trying to interpret them.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 14, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was taking a short cut.
The article about the worst pitch in the game was an ESPN piece that was constructed using data from Fangraphs. KC Tiger had a post about it a week ago (http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/7/7/2265169/kyle-davies-and-the-worst-fastball-in-the-majors).
The link to the espn article is: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=6742447&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d6742447
Can someone point me in the direction of somewhere that explains the difference between the two well?
Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room!
by KeepItCopacetic on Jul 14, 2011 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions
If Kyle Davies is the worst pitcher in baseball
and has a replacement level WAR, doesn’t that mean that EVERY OTHER PITCHER is above replacement level?
I always thought replacement level was the median of the pitchers out there.
Probably the most confused concept on here
And I am by no means clear on it either; some of the other guys need to chime in here.
A replacement player performs at “replacement level,” which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as “freely available talent.”
So I think “replacement level” is closer to the performance you should expect from Jeff Suppan or some other freely available talent at the league minimum.
Yes, Jeff Suppan is a good example
Took basically nothing for the Royals to acquire him, and if some other team needed a starter in an emergency, they could trade some low-worth minor-league asset for him.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 13, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
For Example
Sorting Fangraph’s WAR leaders for starting pitchers with 50+ innings pitched, there are 8 pitchers with a negative WAR and 147 pitchers with a positive WAR. So if you have a WAR of 0 you are at the bottom of the heap, for sure.
Average is about 2 WAR
Replacement level is essentially the best players at AAA
No, that's 1 WAR SP's
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 13, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I ardently root for the other team when Davies starts now
Yeah, I sort of hate myself for doing it – but if that’s what it takes to make 100% sure DM doesn’t error and bring him back next year, then so be it.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
He's at least staying this year
We may have already given up on him, but the Royals still think he has “potential.”
At the BP gathering at the stadium on Monday, Jin Wong responded to a question about the possibility of releasing Davies and whether Dayton is too attached to him to see his faults clearly with a speech about all of his pitches still being plus, him only being 27, and the fact that he just needs to develop consistency in his command of those pitches. I got the impression they still think there is a chance that something will click and he will be viable, and they want to own him when he is.
If he has a good September this year, and there is no interest on the free agent market, there is a very real possibility that they bring him back again.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
for how many years?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 13, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It will be a
1 or 2 year deal (with a mutual option of course)
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
This is the worst
Because I’m almost certain without even looking that his numbers are always good in September. At least it seems to me that he always has a good month to round out the season and give everyone some hope that he’ll continue his improvement over the offseason and into spring training and maybe figure it out the next year. And then instead of doing that, he sucks horribly. Forever.
We should let him toil away in the minors on a minor league deal and then bring him up for the stretch run every season.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 13, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm ready for David Glass to let go of the Royals
*"You know what? I can already tell that I don't like you. And I'm probably not gonna like you no matter how many pull-ups or push-ups you do. All right, anybody who wants to pick on anybody in class, aim for him, because I ain't watching."
-Kenny Powers
*When we blitz, have the LB's do a KC Strip. Do this in remembrance of DT.
I'd just like to bring up one point...
For anyone that likes to talk of trading and Kyle Davies, let’s just make this clear — you don’t trade for Kyle Davies, you end up with Kyle Davies. =P
You want optimism? My glass is half full of emptiness.
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