BP/Kevin Goldstein Midseason Top 50 prospects

Royals:

23. Mike Montgomery, LHP, AAA Omaha

28. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3b, A Kane County

31. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, AA NW Arkansas

50. Wil Myers, OF, AA NW Arkansas

11 months ago MkeRoyal 42 comments 0 recs |

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Where was Myers to begin the season?

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

13

by MkeRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

but he was 4-4 with 2 doubles last night...

so he's probably something like #45 now

by MkeRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

did he give a reason for dropping him from 13 to 50?

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Can you not figure that out for yourself?

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

well it just seems if you rank a guy that high for 500 ABs in A ball, you wouldn't just drop him that far for 230 AB's in AA as a 20 year old.

Just don’t see how you can fall out of love with a prospect that quick.

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I haven't read KG's annotations.

I just saw the list. I’d imagine Wil Myers’s tumble in the rankings is as tied to this year’s results as Chelsor Cuthbert’s rise is.

by MkeRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

excuse me,

Cheslor. Although I kind of like Chelsor.

by MkeRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure I'd equate dropping 37 spots to falling out of love with him.

Myers has gotten off to a slow start this year for various reasons, with his injury being a significant reason. There is no reason to panic, but a bit of a drop is to be expected. No matter what age you are..you can’t be a top 15 prospect in the game with an OPS in the .700s as a corner outfielder.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 16, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not too worried about it, but its the first guy I've seen drop Myers so far.

Nice to see that Cuthbert will now be a fixture on these lists for awhile though.

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Myers also went from listed as a catcher to outfielder

The positional adjustment between catcher (+12.5 runs) and corner outfield (-7.5 runs) at the MLB level is worth 2 wins (20 runs).

by Gopherballs on Jul 16, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

The difference from 13-50 is probably not that much and he has been striking out a lot. Plus, he’s probably undergoing an adjustment to the OF. I’m surprised the others aren’t dropping him more.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Prospect guys have a lot to think about.

It’s not just Myers underwhelming in AA. There’s other players that are overwhelming so they start getting attention. I’m not so sure it means anything. Goldstein still thinks Myers will be good, but sample sizes aren’t a big issue for him. I’m guessing that’s because he can look at Myers’ power numbers and see they’re down, as well as some peripherals perhaps.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure it means anything is probably the key here

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I dunno

People act like its a huge drop. I would bet the difference between 13 and 50 isn’t as great as people think. Its all pretty subjective.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 16, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Naaaahhhhh

Evaluating minor leaguers is a completely objective process.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 17, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Having 4 guys in the Top 50

After graduating Duffy, Hosmer, and Moose is pretty nice.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

It's definitely not bad.

Which is why I don’t understand the pessimism around here. Sure, the pitching sucks, but Hochevar has still be okay, Paulino has been good, Chen has been okay, Duffy looks like he’ll get better, and Monty is turning things around big time at AAA. I understand things still won’t be great, but a lot of things can happen between now and Opening Day 2012. Not to mention another high draft pick in another good (but not as good as 2011) draft class.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

the farm is still good. just more guys to complain about, which is a good thing.

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, the snark about how our farm system is good and is going to win championships is old.

I’m tired of people being sarcastic about our farm system and acting as if it doesn’t really mean anything. It’s so stupid. You’re right guys, having a good farm system has done nothing for the Rays.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Totally agree on that front.

by BeauJackson on Jul 16, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rays are what they are because they combined a strong farm system with smart moves at the ML level.

So far, DM has completed half of that formula. The other half, smart moves at the ML level, he’s been a huge failure so far. That’s why the strong farm system doesn’t guarantee any level of success.

DM has been on the job for five years and the major league team hasn’t improved one single bit, despite him getting more money to work with than Baird. It doesn’t take five years just to improve at the major league level.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 16, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

Two things:

First, our farm system was probably stronger than the Rays system was when we first started graduating players, so I think it’s very possible that our farm system provides even more production.

Second, it’s awfully hard to make good ML moves when you have a barren farm system. So in that respect, it does take 5 years to be able to make good moves to improve the major league team. So far DM has made some decent, albeit sometimes superfluous free agent signings and been able to flip them at the deadline for something. Yes, he messed up with Jose Guillen, but I prefer that he not feel pressured because that’s what happens when a GM is desperate to make a deal. I think the jury is still out on whether DM will make solid moves. This trade deadline will tell us a lot, like whether he can part ways with Francoeur, but until we become buyers (yes I realize this is somewhat circular) we can’t really say DM cannot make the right moves to improve the ML team.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

All that is nothing but excuses.

I’m not saying DM should’ve had us as a perennial playoff team by now, but he’s had plenty of resources to get us to being a .500 level team. He has made too many poor signings, extensions and trades to even count. Yes, his moves this past offseason weren’t as bad, but to say DM’s lack of success is due to not having prospects is just a weak, weak excuse.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 16, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

If We Had Enough of a Base

To compete as a small market team, signing guys like Cabrera and Francis would both have been tremendous moves.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

the Rays also won a number of ballsy trades

and maximized what they had

doubt DM will do that

by Freneau on Jul 16, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the reasons for pessimism

Is the failure rates of Top 100 prospects. But we also have Lamb, Colon, and Dwyer who have been top 100 prospects.

It’s odd, but it’s easy to look our current top 100 prospects and apply the failure rates directly to them, rather than consider the “failures” with them.

by WestCoastRoyal on Jul 16, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I know that.

That’s all well and good. It’s when the sarcasm gets out of control and suggests that no matter how many good prospects you have, it doesn’t mean anything unless the major league team is good. The fact that that joke comes to someone’s mind without thinking about how the Rays did it is beyond me.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

No matter how many good prospects you have, it doesn’t mean anything less the organization’s GM can make the right moves at the major league level. Dayton Moore is the reason that many fans aren’t expecting playoff success, despite the very good minor league system.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 17, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

he made some pretty damn good moves this offseason

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 17, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Meat Loaf said 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

He didn’t say shit about 1 out of 5.

Killing time until time kills me

by EspeciallyK on Jul 17, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs

On one year players*

And the team was still more than 15 games below .500 at the all star break

* Yes, yes….Melky has another year

Unless I'm wrong...

by Top Ramen on Jul 17, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

And those data points count

And in evaluating him, they must be counted among many other data points. The totality doesn’t look very good.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 18, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

We'll see when we get there

Maybe I’m a blind optimist, but I don’t see another Jose Guillen in Moore’s future. Another Kendall, maybe, but not another Guillen.

by kcdc1 on Jul 18, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m also concerned about another HoRam, Jacobs, Farnsworth, Yabuta, Bloomquist, Yuni, etc.

Out of curiosity, why do you not see another Jose Guillen in Moore’s future? I think Moore is going to go after some top tier FA’s in the fairly near future, as he’s done in the past when he had money to spend. But then if he doesn’t get any of them, as has happened in the past, I think he’ll go down to the next tier and I could definitely see him signing a 30-something player with a so-so reputation coming off a good year to a long-term contract.

The bottom line problem is the major league talent evaluation problem the Royals FO has. Going forward, are they going to properly evaluate players’ ability to get on base, hit for power, play defense (and more)? Are they going to recognize where a player is on the development/decline curve? The good and pretty good seasons of Melky and Francoeur respectively are not enough to convince me that the Royals FO is suddenly good at evaluating major league talent.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 18, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

doesn't it seem moore started to do some of that this past offseason?

he signed melky and frenchy who could’ve both still been in the incline phase of their career. while those moves were panned, it was probably a step in the right direction no matter how they played this year. now, what he does with those two guys now that he has them is going to be another story.

moore was surely a little too gung ho when he got to town and made some really dumb moves but at least he seems to have reversed course in the last 12 months.

by BeauJackson on Jul 18, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it is an overstatement to say that Moore “reversed course in the l ast 12 months.” Over that period he hasn’t signed any poor player to a long-term deal, but I don’t know that one offseason necesarily = a course reversal. I hope he’s changed. I doubt it.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 18, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoa

Offtopic, but just played with some sortable team stats at MLB.com and noticed that KC has the 4th best AVG in all of baseball. Is our pitching THAT bad!?!?!

Born in Ohio. Chiefs and Royals fan for last 17 years. Yeah, not sure how that happend....

by OhioChiefsFan on Jul 16, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

First, where have you been?

Second, yes.

Third, we were 2nd in AVG in the AL last year.

Fourth, having a decent pitching staff and the 4th best AVG in baseball would still mean we suck. Still, our hitting has been pretty good this year, which should be apparent.

Fifth, it’s 2011. Get off of MLB.com’s stats page and go to FanGraphs or Baseball Reference. Next, block out AVG and start looking at OPS+ or wRC+, or at least OBP for crying out loud.

by hawkinscm87 on Jul 16, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions