The Royals Outfield Conundrum
by Connor Moylan on Jul 20, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintDayton Moore had an interview on Wednesday with MLB Network Radio, and he had some very interesting soundbites. Dayton said he wanted two starters in exchange Joakim Soria, and that Aaron Crow would start in 2012. Moore also seemed to indicate that he would be comfortable keeping Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, or that it would be tough to move either of them. Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweeted about what Moore said on air.
Dayton Moore...told us Melky Cabrera is only 26 and they control him..he said it's unlikely he gets moved at the deadline
Dayton Moore said that Francouer wants to stay in KC and the fans and coaching staff want him there too..said it would be tuff to move him
If you take these quotes at face value, it might lead you to believe the Royals outfield might not change this season, or next season as well. While it is possible Dayton is simply trying to build up their worth by talking about how valuable they are to the Royals, he may also be serious about keeping both players. He may be trying to be build up their trade value and is serious about how important they are; they are not necessarily exclusive. Regardless, there certainly seems to be a chance that neither outfielder will switch teams, and that they will both be in the Royals starting lineup in 2012.
If I would have been told before the season that the Royals would be starting Melky and Francoeur in 2012, I would have either blasted Dayton Moore for being unable to identify major-league talent, or I would be mourning the fact that Alex Gordon had a horrendous 2011 season (maybe both). Now, however, it does not seem so unrealistic or horrible. What would you do if you were GM? Breakdown of the four options after the jump
Keep Melky and Francoeur: In this scenario, both players would stay put and presumably be the Royals starting outfielders in 2012. Melky has one more season of arbitration, and Franceour has a mutual option. Jeff has said that he would like to sign a contract extension; the mutual option is only four million dollars, which would be less than Francoeur likely would command in the open market. I would predict that if Francoeur does not get traded, he will sign a contract extension or leave in the offseason. Either way, if neither of them is moved, I will assume they will be two of the Royals starting outfielders next season, with Frenchy being around potentially until 2015. For me, this would be my least favorite option. I don't like the idea of Francoeur signing a contract extension, or the Royals get nothing in return for him if he leaves in the offseason. I would also like to give some playing time to Mitch Maier, Lorenzo Cain, or even David Lough.
Keep Melky, Trade Francoeur: With this option, Francoeur would be traded at the deadline, and Melky would move to rightfield with Cain playing centerfield. I would be ok with this option; I am a bigger believer in Cabrera than Frenchy. It would also clear space for Lorenzo, who is playing well in AAA. Melky could then be moved next deadline if Wil Myers is ready, or let go in the offseason so Myers can play rightfield in the 2013 season
Keep Francoeur, Trade Melky: In this scenario, Melky would leave the Royals at the deadline (or potentially in the offseason) with Cain taking his spot in center. We again assume that the Royals would sign Francoeur to a contract extension, or else he will likely walk in the offseason. While I would like Lorenzocaine to get more playing time, I don't want to sign Francoeur to a contract extension. I'm not sold he can repeat his success in 2012 (or in 2015), and if he signed a contract extension, he would be blocking Myers in right.
Trade Francoeur and Melky: I would also be comfortable with this option; this would have been my favorite option coming into the season, although currently I'm torn between this option and the Keep Melky, Trade Francoeur option. Cain would come up and play right, with Lough or Maier manning rightfield. I think Melky would be a better option in rightfield in 2012 than Lough, and probably would be better than Maier. Would the return for Cabrera outweigh the potential/probable drop in rightfield production in 2012? If teams blow Moore away with trade offers for Melky and Francoeur at the deadline, he would be wise to move both and not worry about it.
Overall, my feelings are apathetic about bring Cabrera back; I don't want Moore to give Melky away because he still has value to the Royals next season, but he should not be a coveted piece either. I would prefer to move Francoeur at the deadline; I am not sure his value will be any higher, and if he is not moved at the deadline he will probably get nothing back for him or sign him to a contract extension. Whatever decision Dayton Moore makes will be revealing, and could have large implications for the Royals future.
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Keep Melky
Why not? Hell, he plays this way next year he’s a Type A free agent.
I’d like to bring Cain up for CF and have Melkman and Gordon on the corners.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Hell, he plays this way next year he’s a Type A free agent.
And if he plays twice as good as this next year, he’s as good as Albert Pujols. And if he had wings he could fly.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
?
He was always a highly regarded prospect and he’s 26. How is it crazy to think he’ll continue playing at his current level?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In five MLB seasons, he’s never sustained even 1/3 the level of his current production over a full season.
by KSinDC on Jul 20, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
No I don't think he was ever a particularly highly regarded prospect
He never cracked BA’s top 100 (or any other top 100 list to my knowledge). I was living in NY at the time of his promotion to the majors and there was no buzz, even in the local/regional media where they are happy to hype just about any prospect. Scouts always saw him as a tweener who was too slow for CF and didn’t have the body for it. And while the bat looked competent, his hitting tools certainly didn’t look particularly impressive.
How is it crazy to think he’ll continue playing at his current level?
Because he’s had a lot of MLB PA’s to determine his true talent level. Now his performance this season is a significant data point, but it doesn’t negate the rest. Thinking that this massive statistical spike is the new, true Melky is folly.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's go to the tape
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreme01.shtml
His slash line this year is .296/.333/.459. His career slash line is .271/.329/.391. That’s not an absurd improvement, particularly for a guy who is only 26 years old.
As far as his prospect status, let’s see what BA had to say about him in 2005:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba05july.html
Cabrera doesn’t have the ability to play center field in the majors, and he struggled defensively when New York tried to use him as a big league band-aid. What he can do is hit, and I see him as a .280/.335/.450 corner outfielder. He has average speed and enough arm strength to play right field. As a bonus, he’s a switch-hitter and he’s still just 20, so he has plenty of time to develop more power than I’m projecting.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
25 points of BA and 50 points of ISO in a declining offensive environment
His wRC+ this year is 121. His career high prior to this was 98. His career average was in the 80s.
by KSinDC on Jul 20, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, and he is 26
Why is it so outrageous that a kid who entered the league as a serviceable hitter at 20 sees a bump up in his production when he is 26?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he probably is a better hitter now than he was
But 15% below average to 20% above average?
I mean, if can happen (cf. Bautista, Jose), but in projecting forward, I think it’s far more likely that Melky has just hit a streak of good luck / poor pitching adjustments and that he’ll return to some place closer to his career numbers over the long term.
I’d rather plan based on what’s most likely than what’s the best case scenario.
by KSinDC on Jul 20, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
League average
It’s a pretty big statistical error to argue that the population decline of offensive production should imply that any individual in the population should expect a similar level of decline. There are a lot of other potential explanations other than “All of the hitters in the league got worse/pitchers got better.”
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Like what?
There are no new ballparks this year, and the offense is down comparably in the AL and NL (ERA down .27 in AL, .22 in NL). What factors would explain these trends that wouldn’t affect all players?
by KSinDC on Jul 20, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A change in the population itself
Let’s say that the relative proportion of talented hitters declines from one year to the next. The remaining hitters will see their normalized performance levels increase.
Again, asserting that changes in the population represent changes in the individuals in the population is an absolutely classic, first-day of class error in statistical reasoning.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're speculating that both leagues saw simultaneous and proportional declines due to separate causes?
Also, what day of class do they cover confusing things that could be true and things that are likely to be true?
You’re right that the significant league-wide decline in offense over the last two seasons does not require it be the case that individual players are performing worse. However, it is extremely likely that that’s exactly what’s going on.
by KSinDC on Jul 20, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Not speculating
I’m not making any assertion about the cause of the decline at all—I think it is a real puzzle. All I am saying is that the argument “League offensive production is down and therefore Melky Cabrera’s performance—which otherwise appears to be close to career norms—is an anamoly—is not a solid statistical argument to make.”
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is a good example of a bad statistical argument
“which otherwise appears to be close to career norms”
Melky’s career wOBA coming into this year was .312. This year his wOBA was .352. Even if you don’t believe that we can conclude that the offensive level of individuals has changed, it’s ridiculous to say that this year appears close to his career norms
Even if you just use the current distribution of hitting, based on his career statistics, Melky was a 35th percentile hitter. Based on this year’s statistics, he’s a 73rd percentile hitter. He’s still had a giant increase in his offensive output.
Let me quote myself above
“His slash line this year is .296/.333/.459. His career slash line is .271/.329/.391. That’s not an absurd improvement, particularly for a guy who is only 26 years old.”
Both batting average and OBP this year don’t diverge much from his career average. I’ll grant you his power is outside of career norms, however.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't diverge much?
His batting average coming into this year was .267. If you use this year’s hitting environment (i.e. you ignore the decline in offense), that’s a 46th percentile effort. His batting average this year is 82nd percentile.
Put another way, in his best hitting year ever before now (.280 in his second year), he was closer to his career average than he was to his performance this year.
I can get why you’d argue that this is a breakout year for Melky (the Jose Bautista story). I can’t get why you’d argue that this year is at all in line with his career up to this point.
I'd assume
that what happened was teams started emphasizing defense and got better at measuring or at least paying attention to who actually could prevent runs scoring. Good d was cheaper than good o, a market inefficiency. So better fielders got run-scoring down, and to top it off, the better fielders tended to be worse hitters. That and perhaps a wave of young arms coming up.
Certainly an individual player at 26 may improve enough to overcome a league wide run-suppressing environment.
He's not arguing that Melky's improved
He’s suggesting that Melky has stayed the same — that this year is in line with his previous numbers and we shouldn’t view it as a great outlier — and therefore, this performance is sustainable going forward.
Maybe it's not that batters are worse,
but that pitchers are better. Even the Royals’ rookie bullpen is filled with guys who can throw 91-94 mph fastballs. I don’t remember that being true eight or ten years ago, when each team had two or three sucky relievers. Now every spot on the roster counts.
Hypothesis: Greater care and attention, over the last 10 years or so, paid to not letting young pitchers throw their arms out, is beginning to pay off. Fewer pitchers are coming down with early career-ending injuries, thereby raising the average level of the pitching talent pool.
I don’t know how you’d test that. Average age through the years of pitchers’ first appearance on the DL?
"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon
i can get on board with that
i don’t know how much impact that has, but some. another point would be medical advancements, i.e. tommy john success rates now v a decade or two ago.
also, the steroid era causing more injuries to pitchers than hitters might be another point to make. speculation on my part.
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 21, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you a member of the PSOE?
"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon
So we shouldn’t evaluate a hitter by comparing him to his peers in a given year? And we shouldn’t recognize changes in the run environment? Please.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
His slash line this year is .296/.333/.459. His career slash line is .271/.329/.391. That’s not an absurd improvement, particularly for a guy who is only 26 years old.
A sudden power spike like that is an absurd improvement and not l ikely sustainable. Career ISO = .120. This year, .163. I think it unlikely that he finally figured out how to hit in his 6th full season in the majors.
And that doesn’t read like BA was gushing with praise for him. There’s a reason he was never a top 100 prospect. While they did think he could hit like he is hitting right now, I think his other 5 full sesaons of data show that this is very unlikely to be “real Melky” which we should expect to see in 2012.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
?
I think it unlikely that he finally figured out how to hit in his 6th full season in the majors.
Tell me how an average raising from .271 to .296 and an OBP from .329 to .333 is somehow “figuring out how to hit”?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Often radical performance spikes are about luck and random variation, not about changes in talent.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I ask again
“Tell me how an average raising from .271 to .296 and an OBP from .329 to .333 is somehow "figuring out how to hit"?”
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Would you be more content with me describing it as “learning how to hit well”? He’s gone from being a considerably below average hitter for his career to a considerably above average hitter this season.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
i dont understand
maybe i havent had enough poptarts today.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
not disagreeing with youScott
but how do you explain Bautista? Huge outlier? Im geniunely curious.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
Don't need to bring Bautista into it
Melky’s performance increase is nice but no where near the crazy outlier that Bautista displayed.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't think a wOBA increase of 40 points over his career numbers is a massive increase?
That’s not a crazy outlier?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Jose Bautista
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1887&position=3B/OF
ISO 2009: .173
ISO 2010: .357
THAT’S an outlier, Scott. A 40 point bump in ISO is certainly not a statistical outlier. Wilson Ramos, for example, had an ISO of .127 last year and .179 this year.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a mere spike from one year to the next
I’m talking about a spike over a player’s career averages over 5 full seasons.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and I'm not talking about just a 40 point increase in ISO
I’m talking about a 40 point increase in his wOBA over his career wOBA.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
We see a lot of these arguments on this board about how to weigh recent performance against career performance
It’s tough to say how much of any given change in results is adjustment and how much is luck. But for reference, ZiPS projection of Melky’s numbers going forward:
.279/.331/.410
In this offensive environment, that’s an above average hitter with likely above average defense in RF. If we got that next year from Melky next year, I’d imagine it’d be good for 2-3 wins.
As for how much is real
Melky’s offensive improvement this season tied directly to his increased power. While his GB%, FB%, LD% and BABIP are more or less in line with his career averages, his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled to 11.1% from a career 6.8%.
Melky’s .296 batting average looks like a luck-induced improvement over his career .271 batting average, but the extra home runs give him hits on balls out of play, and explain about 15 points of the jump. If Melky is also enjoying a slightly improved BABIP, but some of this might be explainable by him striking the ball with more authority. There might be a few points of balls missing gloves in that batting average, but most of it is tied to the improved power.
So if we want to know whether Melky is a new and improved hitter, the question I would ask is whether the power is for real. I don’t know the answer to that. Just from watching most of the games, Melky looks like he’s consistently pulling pitches that he can pull, but I can’t say if it will last. A projected .410 slugging average strikes me as a few points lower than I’d guess, but I’d be in the same neighborhood.
We had this discussion in April
Adding a bit of adult man-strength at 26 isn’t all that unusual (or maybe it is learning to wait for your pitch and drive it; or maybe it is just luck). Melky has been very uneven over his career. Last year really made him look washed up at 25. But at 24 he had a .142 iso. Can’t act like last year didn’t happen, but it was widely reported he was completely out of shape and sulking in Atlanta. As I think you pointed out then he doesn’t look completely in-shape even now, but perhaps he isn’t rolling in to bed at 4 a.m. after a dozen mojitos (his rumored diet when with the Yanks and partying with his buddy Robby Cano, who evidently holds his liquor better).
I was merely arguing back then that he might be due for a 3 WAR pace year, not 3.3 already.
He’s always made contact, it is the power spike that is really boosting him. Is that sustainable? Hell, maybe he’ll get even better. Or he could fall off a cliff again, lose the fear of God or Bobby Cox and hit like 2010 Melky. But more likely he will regress somewhat.
I don’t know what DM really thinks, but talking him up isn’t a bad move. He’s been quite good this year. But certainly, trade him now. Odds are he will never be more valuable.
Francouer I doubt has much trade value. I dunno, maybe Boston wants him as a righty hitting outfielder off the bench. Drew has been awful and they are lefty heavy. He could pinch-hit for Reddick against tough lefties. Just speculating, of course, but the Over the Monster folks were talking about someone to replace Darnell Mcdonald. Tough when your biggest offensive woes are your lack of a righty bench bat, eh?
So trade Melky, call up Cain, and in a year or so Myers will be up. Gordon Cain and Myers. Not too bad.
Yes, a huge outlier. And that kind of thing happens, but the vast majority of the time when there is a huge performance spike after the player has performed much worse than that for 5+ MLB seasons, it’s not something you should expect going forward.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh
Scott, you do realize, right, that five major league seasons from age 20 to age 25 are fundamentally different than, say, five seasons from age 25 to 30?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize that players typically peak in their mid 20’s. So it isn’t surprising to see an improvement from a 26-year-old. But are you laboring under the misconception that it is common for players with 5 full seasons under their belt to have a sudden 40-point wOBA spike? Basically it seems like you’re saying any massive improvement by a 26-year-old is probably just a player coming into his own. Ignoring the prior 5 years of data is exceptionally poor analysis.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Melky Cabrera wOBA, by year
.333
.317
.285
.331
.294
.352
Note that he’s had two full major league seasons with .333 and .331 wOBA.
A .352 wOBA in his age 26 season is a jump, of course, but it isn’t a “sudden 40-point spike” and it certainly isn’t an “outlier” by any meaningful definition of the term.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s certainly a sudden 40-point spike over his career averages. And it’s not like he’s be steadily improving over his early and mid-20’s. Last year and two years before that, his wOBA’s were there worst of his career. So yeah this is a huge, sudden spike. You’re saying it isn’t an outlier because you don’t want it to be.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you realize how insane this sounds?
“Last year and two years before that, his wOBA’s were there worst of his career.”
I’m saying it isn’t an outlier because it isn’t an outlier. If you don’t have the statistical background to understand why that is the case I’m through trying to educate you.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I like that move
If all else fails, declare both victory and superior statistical analysis skills. Keep up the good work.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
You're the one personalizing this, Scott
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
easy trey....
or was it dayton that didnt have time to educate
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
gordon:
.317
.344
.321
.294
.364
career average: .332
trade him. he’s a fraud!
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 20, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you not see the differences between Gordon and Melky?
Melky had many more MLB PA’s before his spike this year. Gordon was always seen as an extraordinarily talented player with the skills to hit like this.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
BUT...BUT....IT'S wOBA!
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 20, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Checkmate
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't know what you're trying to say.
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 20, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Just playing around, as I assume you were with your wOBA comment.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I am a little late to little fight, but I will take Austin's view that Melky may be playing at a new level.
I am wondering if he has quit the partying that he was known for in the past …
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/401254-did-trade-of-melky-cabrera-help-robinson-cano
… and is beginning to finally take baseball a little more seriously since he has gotten older, thereby raising his talent level.
Looking at his stats that have really helped in increase his value are his higher than normal BABIP 0.322 and the definitely higher HR/FB.
More to come.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate asserting off the field reasons for increased performance
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
even if you hate it
it’s definitely real. it’s not like real life doesn’t exist.
signed, josh hamilton
by Professor Stephanie Willbanks on Jul 20, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s real that off field things can affect performance. We have no idea if that is what is happening here.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course real life exists
It may even be true for Melky. It’s just not something we can really analyze…its all part of the irreducible statistical variation in performance that we see between players
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
It's hard to credit it
yet it still easily may be the reason. It was widely reported he was a heavy drinker and partier. It was also widely reported he took himself more seriously as far as staying in shape starting this off-season. That is quite often just bs. We don’t know if that is a reason. It’s almost the same as someone having a slight injury that heals or gets worse. Often unreported.
It’s just as likely he just got a little better or a little luckier. Could be a combo of all of these things.
Per fangraphs war he’s one of the top 35 or so players in the game this year. Obviously one of the select few greatest baseball players on the planet. :)
You gotta be careful
when your players start partying and drinking together too much. That happened to Barça with Ronaldinho and Deco, both of whom they had to kick off the team for being too hung over to practice. Ronaldinho also corrupted the Dos Santos brothers.
The team party quotient has gone way down since Ronaldinho got put on the bus to Milan. The results on the pitch have improved greatly.
"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon
None taken, but sometimes there are reasons for changes
That is why their are scouts.
I did look into his average FB and HR distance over the years and here are the values (in ft):
2007 267
2008 266
2009 278
2010 263
2011 271
He is hitting the ball a little harder this season, but not totally out of place
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I now need to figure out the values from each side of the plate
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting data there
How do you get spray chart data?
Just from watching the games, it seems to me that Melky’s home runs have been mostly from pulling mistake pitches for line drive home runs near the foul pole, but I don’t know how you’d measure whether he’s doing that better or worse this year than in years past.
Well, I know he’s hitting more home runs, so I’m sure he’s getting more home runs to the pull side. But I’d wonder whether he’s hitting more fly balls per AB to the pull side in general, including outs.
I can get the pull angles, but it is a little more difficult since he is a switch hitter.
Give me a bit.
The batted ball data that is available at places like texasleaguers.com is part of the Pitch FX data set. I turned the x,y numbers into distance and angle from home plate (a pain in the ass).
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
By hand
Left Handed
year distance (ft)
2007 271
2008 271
2009 284
2010 262
2011 281
Right Handed
year distance (ft)
2007 256
2008 255
2009 266
2010 266
2011 253
He generally hits for more distance left handed, with this year it being about 30 additional feet.
I looked at he is turn on the ball a bit more as a LHH. We will see if he can keep it up.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this supposed to be evidence of more power or better control?
He’s posting the “worst” (these are awfully small samples and narrow ranges) RH distance numbers of his career, but he’s hitting 75% more HR/PA from the right side this year (2.2%) than he has over the rest of his career (1.3%).
On the LH side, he’s posting better than average distance numbers, but his HR/PA ratio is up a comparable amount — 90% more HR/PA from the left side this year (3.0%) than over his career (1.6%).
To me, these distance numbers seem to say that something else must be causing the increased home run rate.
I wrote this above, but it's beter tied to the conversation here
Melky’s offensive improvement this season tied directly to his increased power. While his GB%, FB%, LD% and BABIP are more or less in line with his career averages, his HR/FB rate has nearly doubled to 11.1% from a career 6.8%.
Melky’s .296 batting average looks like a luck-induced improvement over his career .271 batting average, but the extra home runs give him hits on balls out of play, and explain about 15 points of the jump. If Melky is also enjoying a slightly improved BABIP, but some of this might be explainable by him striking the ball with more authority. There might be a few points of balls missing gloves in that batting average, but most of it is tied to the improved power.
So if we want to know whether Melky is a new and improved hitter, the question I would ask is whether the power is for real. I don’t know the answer to that. Just from watching most of the games, Melky looks like he’s consistently pulling pitches that he can pull, but I can’t say if it will last. A projected .410 slugging average strikes me as a few points lower than I’d guess, but I’d be in the same neighborhood.
Good analysis
I’m a lot more comfortable seeing improvement due to increased power in a player’s mid 20s than I would be an increase due to a supposedly better batting eye.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe he is spending his evenings lifting weights instead of cocktails ;)
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Dave Cameron on Melky
Written before the 2010 season.
“He’s been around long enough that its easy to forget that he’s just 25 years old. He gets labeled as a tweener, because he’s not a great defensive CF or a great offensive LF, but guys like this are often better than people realize, and there’s still upside left with Cabrera. He’s a really good contact hitter and strong enough to add to his current gap power levels. He doesn’t even have to add all that much power to turn himself into a legitimate 20-20 threat.”
I’d say, before last season, this type of year he is having now actually was an expected progression for him. He was coming off a .140+ iso year at age 24. Most players are at best having their first cup of coffee at 24.
Then again, 2010 happened, and he’d been up and down before in his career.
So the Royals might keep Melky?
To even suggest that is ridiculous!!!!!!!111
Bowden is just another ultra-negative internet jerk.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions
Thank you for using the sarcasm font
For the record, I don’t trust Bowden and his “reporting.” And anything that Moore says about players who might be traded could all be posturing. While I have my guesses, I’m not going to jump to conclusions about who will be traded until Aug. 1.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
We're on the same page on GM speak.
I’m not a huge fan of the sarcasm font, but I’m glad it worked here.
...
me neither
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 20, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to clarify:
On June 16, you wrote:
I think Melky stays for all of 2011 and most of 2012 as well …which would mean Cain doesn’t come up until someone is injured or September call-ups.
Seemingly everyone else interpretted that as you saying that Melky will continue to block Cain for the foreseeable future. But it turns out that wasn’t what you meant. You later clarified that you thought it was likely that Cain would be given a starting role in 2012 by clearing out Francoeur or pushing one of Francoeur and Melky to a 4th OF role. The whole argument was based on a misunderstanding.
Ridiculous!!!!!!!!!111
Just kidding. But a month ago, there were a lot of people saying things along the lines of “of course Melky is going to be traded. That was always Moore’s plan. There’s no reason to think Moore is changing his plan.”
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
At that time, I didn’t think Moore would hold onto Melky because I thought it was clear that Cain needed to be given a chance to start.
And it didn’t seem like Melky and Cain would fit in the same outfield. Melky had hit pretty well to that point, but it was only 2 months, and the numbers didn’t make a compelling case for using Melky as an everyday corner outfielder. Since then, Melky’s had a month where he’s hit for something like a .950 OPS, bringing his overall line up considerably and giving it 3 month’s weight instead of 2. All said, Melky looks a lot better as a potential 2012 RF than he did a month ago, so it’s easier to see Melky and Cain in the same outfield.
Keep Melky. Trade Francoeur.
Melky could see a major boost in his trade value if he stays with us for the rest of this season and until midway through 2012. Not to mention, he is a good corner outfielder that could really boost the Royals chances of winning in 2012.
Frenchy will have no trade value at all if we use his mutual option. He is average at best, and needs to be let go.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
Actually, his trade value will likely be less next year
Even if he keep this up—he will lose the extra year of control after this season. A trade during the 2012 season would just be a rental.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, his trade value will likely be much less
Regression is likely to sap the not great value he has right now. This is Melky’s peak. This is a great sell-high opportunity. Will Dayton take advantage of it?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
July 20 Melky
Is a pretty good COF. I want to believe he could sustain this, but I don’t.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
If he really kept up this level of play, it would be interesting to see how his 2012 value compared to now
He’d only be under control for a half season, but his true talent level would look far higher.
I’m not interested in finding out though. I hope Dayton is shopping him aggressively.
I'd keep Cabrera
Better offense, more positional flexibility. Cain’s got almost 1100 PA’s between AA and AAA. It’s time to get him up here for a full MLB season and see what he can do. Give he and Melky the 2012 season to see if one or both will end up sucking, and by then, hopefully Myers will be ready for 2013.
Then again, Melky smiles a lot, too, but it’s just not as legitimate and down-home wholesome as Frenchy. And I don’t think Cabrera buys tickets for anyone except his family members. Maybe. We should probably keep both.
Rejecting reasonable offers on either of them would be incredibly stupid
We need to get Cain up. He’s already the oldest of the prospects.
And we desperately need more pitching depth.
I’m not sure that Frenchy would bring back anything at this point, but assuming good offers exist for Melky, he needs to take them.
Another option
Keep Melky and Cabrera and try to swap Gordon for a really good starting pitcher.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
This means replacing the entire OF for the 2013/4 season
Assuming we’re not contending next year, the idea is to trade away guys who can’t help us in our window for contending in exchange for guys who can. Melky and Frenchy will both be gone before we can contend, so they should be the trade pieces.
You mean Hosmer for a very good SP?
Because that’s what it would take in today’s market. Gordon is a good player but he ain’t bringing back King Felix.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
by DaytonSucks on Jul 20, 2011 12:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wow, as bad ideas go, that one's truly awful.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Depends on what you think of 2012
I think Melky is a better player than Frenchy, so I want to see Frenchy go no matter what. With Melky, if you think you can pulls some pitching together next year, he might have some value to the team as either RF or 4th OF.
That being said, I think you have to be ruthless and put them both on the market for a reasonable price. Once Beltran is off the market, I think the losers of that bidding war will be willing to make a decent offer.
First of all
I don’t take these comments at face value. DM likes to hold his cards close to the vest and he is of course going to say “well we may just hold onto these guys” so teams offer him more to pry them. Its all part of the negotiation and we should all know that by now.
There is absolutely, positively NO reason not to trade Francoeur. He hasn’t posted an OPS this high since his rookie season and his second-half swoons are well documented. He isn’t going to be part of the next good Royals team no matter what. If you can get any kind of return value for him – DO IT.
As for Melky, I can go back and forth on him. I would like to at least see what David Lough can do – not that I think he’ll be any good, but you never know. Lough is more likely to be part of the future than Melky. OTOH, Melky is still pretty young and has exhibited decentish OBA skills through his career. I don’t think he would replicate his numbers next year, but he still could be useful. I guess if you got a good offer for him this year, take it, if not, I have no problem bringing him back.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
There was absolutely no reason
To not trade Mahay either. Just saying.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
by DaytonSucks on Jul 20, 2011 12:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yea, I'm not saying Dayton will trade Frenchy
Just that I don’t think his comments now mean anything.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
What is the feeling on what Melky would get in arbitration next year?
I guess my feeling is that I don’t mind bringing him back, but he won’t necessarily be a starter (haha, fat chance with Ned managing), but if he’s making like $5 mill that’s too much for a potential 4th OF/platoon partner.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The CBA seems to suggest that only the past year and the entire career are considered
But some others on this site (Gopher?) have said that arbitration uses the past two years of data.
In Melky’s case, it will make a huge difference. If he keeps producing at this rate, and then he asks for 80% of the FA value (which research shows is the typical payout for the final year of free agency) for a guy coming off a 5.0 WAR year, that’d be a fortune. The Royals would counter with his career average of 1 WAR / season. Obviously, that’s a huge spread, and there’d be at least a risk of a huge arb award.
However, if they’re using the last two years, Melky’s only producing 2 WAR / season. The Royals could counter with his career average of 1 WAR / season, and I’d think we’d probably get him for something around $5 to $6M.
One significant tweak there
Discussion of stats in arbitration wouldn’t include WAR or anything like that. These aribtrators (by all accounts) look only at traditional stats and focus significantly on counting stats (HR, RBI, Runs, etc.).
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
And therefore the arbitrator would look at service time comps with similar old school, traditional stats.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right
I’m just using WAR as a counting stat shorthand for whatever stats they actually use.
That might give me pause then
OTOH, our salary obligations IIRC are still fairly low next year, so $5 mill won’t be that big a deal.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
He's worth more than $5M to somebody
So if you’re not going to play him, at least offer him arbitration and trade him.
I would say trade Melky and keep Frenchy (for now)
I think we’re at the high water mark with Cabrera and Frenchy is servicible out there. Both in my mind are interchangeable but I think we get more for Melky.
If you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.
Trade them both
They’re not likely to ever be more valuable, and we have Mitch on the bench, Cain and Lough in the minors, and Dyson is still someone’s darling. Let’s get something good for Melky and Frenchy before one of them runs into a wall.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Forgot about Dyson
Yea, I don’t think he’ll be good, but its worth a looksee and he’s a nice toy off the bench.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Franceour really get more than 4 million as a free agent?
I just can’t believe that.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Wins are roughly worth 5 million dollars
and he has already been worth 1.7 WAR this season. He may only get 5 million a year, but it would be over multiple years. I can’t imagine he would pass up the financial security
by Connor Moylan on Jul 20, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess it's certainly possible and maybe I'm underestimating the love affair GM's have with scrappy white guys.
A guy that was at 2 WAR almost two months ago and is now at 1.7 and hasn’t been above 1 since 2007 getting 5 million a year just seems off to me.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Rock Chalk Talk
Keeping Frenchy
Maybe he’ll continue to decay throughout the year and his final numbers will show he hasn’t improved at all.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The right thing to do is trade them both
But the last time Dayton traded an OF, Vin Mazzaro was the return. No thanks, does anyone really want another Mazzaro or SOS?
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
by DaytonSucks on Jul 20, 2011 12:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Pitching is the currency of baseball!
We must accumulate as many nickels as we can.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Moore always preached pitching was the currency of baseball
But with Davies, SOS and Vinny, Im just not sure which country’s currency he is using.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
In North Korea you don't use currency
Currency uses you.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
As a prospect hound prospect are overrated at this point and the return for Melky wouldn't be worth it.
Melky is likely to regress but he could still be worth a 2 WAR player as someone with a couple 1.7 WAR seasons under his belt previously likely qualifying him as a Type B free agent which would bring back a supplemental pick which would be worth more than any C+ prospect he is going to earn this year.
The move is to trade Frenchy and keep Melky but I doubt that happens.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Not too long ago
Ryan Freel and Josh Anderson were playing in the OF. So remember that. Good times.
Pro-Dayton Moore = Blogger
Anti-Dayton Moore= Troll
by DaytonSucks on Jul 20, 2011 12:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Chip Ambres now
Chip Ambres forever
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I Give Up
Firefox doesn’t like pictures.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
YES!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Trade one of them
You need to get Cain into the line-up, so unless you’re planning to use Francoeur as a fourth outfielder, one of Melky and Frenchy has to go. Melky with his better defense, hitting and contract status is more valuable to the Royals, so you keep Melky unless he brings a significantly better return.
My thoughts exactly
We need to free up a spot for Cain and eventually Lough and Myers.
Neither Melky’s history, nor Frenchy’s history offers realistic hopes that they can be much better than league average.
And as for prospects, we don’t need more relievers or marginal prospects. So if Melky can fetch a real prospect, then we have to deal him instead of Frenchy.
That's nice Stark said they are more motivated to trade Frenchy than Melky
I like that I assumed Dayton wouldn’t want to trade his Atlanta Lovechild
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I assumed the same thing
The fear of keeping both of them is what inspired this post
by Connor Moylan on Jul 20, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey shoot me your email if you get a chance
I have a question for you my email is in my profile. Thanks
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
He's got more of a catcher's body
Let's do that
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Platoon them (broken record) or trade Frenchy for a live arm and a taco plate
Francoeur 2011
v. LHP wOBA .421 wRC+ 168
v. RHP wOBA .297 wRC+ 83
Francoeur career
v. LHP wOBA .353 wRC+ 114
v. RHP wOBA .302 wRC+ 81
So basically this season Frenchy is pummelling left-handers much harder than usual, while hitting right-handers the same way he always does. This exceptional performance is likely to be a fluke, but he’s normally an above-average hitter vs. lefties.
Cabrera 2011
v. LHP wOBA .316 wRC+ 96
v. RHP wOBA .354 wRC+ 122
Cabrera career
v. LHP wOBA .302 wRC+ 81
v. RHP wOBA .320 wRC+ 93
Melky may have made a genuine improvement this season, as he’s hitting better from both sides of the plate. This season he’s average against lefties and above-average against righties.
"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon
I'm drawing a line in the sand
Carnitas AND a side of guac.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
And extra enchilada sauce.
"From northern New Jersey came Boom Boom Mazzaro
A righthanded starter drafted out of high school
He pitched in the minors at Stockton and Midland
And blew them away with all of the tools" --Not Warren Zevon
the only way I'm cool with us keeping Francoeur is if he's a platoon player from here on out
considering how the Royals feel about platooning, that’s not going to happen.
Wish we'd just know already who's going where
And who is being traded.. QUICK! Who’s got the magic 8 ball handy?!
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 2:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Dammit
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 2:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think this is GM speak on Dayton's part as well
He’s going to have to trade someone in that OF mix IMO.
Just playing devils advocate a bit….could he get more return in trading Cain? Cain is 25, Melky 26. You get much more controlled years from Cain, but would that get a better return? IIRC Atlanta was hot after Cain this offseason before he was traded for Greinke. They have depth at SP, and they still need a CF, and a RH bat.
And just to disclose…I want Cain up in KC tonight starting in CF, so I’m not saying I want him traded. But wanted your opinions on if Moore would trade Cain instead of Frenchy and Melky, and would the return be better?
Interesting point
Yes, the return is better IMO, and also the teams you are dealing with increases since it would not just be contenders interested, but teams looking towards the future. But, contenders may be less likely to deal since they want something proven. But maybe you can swing a deal with a non-contender willing to deal a pitcher.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'd rather have a decent long-term CF option
If we traded Cain, we’d be trading a player at an area of need. At best, we would get another advanced prospect who might fill an area of need. That would be filling one hole while opening up another.
I’d much rather trade a short-term player like Melky (at most only here through 2012) for a potential long-term hole filler (even if the return is likely modest).
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You get more for Cain
Not just the years of control; Melky’s at best going to be viewed as damaged goods/unreliable production. A team might value him for another win or so this year, two wins next year…assuming he gets $5 mil in arb that’s about $10 million or so in surplus value.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jul 20, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Dayton, you knucklebeak
you’re supposed to cash in your pumpkin futures before Halloween.
Dayton is making the bet that what happened to DeJesus and Teahen’s trade value by waiting a year too long won’t happen to Melky. And he will be wrong.
Melky is likely having a fluke year. He’s having his first good hitting year. He doesn’t field very well. Not very fast. Doesn’t really play the game hard. So of course he’ll still be good next year.
What the hell was the point of acquiring Lorenzo Cain if he was going to be Mitch Maier? I guess Wil Myers will need to make sure that he doesn’t become ready any time before 2013. David Lough, sorry!
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Chairman, The Melky Cabrera Seasoning Sauce. It's great on your outfield!
Reports say
Braves are close to acquiring a bat. Please be Frenchy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Seems a little tight lipped
Could easily be the Royals.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jul 20, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Better Meat?
The Royals appear to be close to trading Wilson Betemit, reports Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star (on Twitter).
The Royals major problem is starting pitching. Everyone knows that.
Chen, Francis, Davies and Hochevar need to be moved out.
Duffy, Montgomery, Crow, Mazzaro are the 2012 guys, and let’s face it, the Royals will have enough money next year to get a more proven arm in there….not a reclamation project.
Getting prospects for Betemit is a coup.
As far as the outfield goes, the four outfielders the Royals used: Maier, Gordon, Francoeur, Cabrera have been very good. I see no reason to give up on a group of outfielders that are under 30, signed on the cheap and actually want to be here. The Royals defense has been very good because of these guys. Everyone needs to put their hatred aside and actually appreciate what they have done this season.
Starting pitching is the only thing holding the Royals down.
Twitter - @peterman7
Well, starting pitching +
C, 2B, and 3B. And I wouldn’t say that the Royals are quite set in the OF either, even (or perhaps especially) if they keep Melky and Frenchy.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Nit pick
now you’re nit picking.
If you look at the MLB stats page, ALL OF – the Royals trio have higher OPS than many good “name” players.
Pena is a good enough catcher for now, until one of our prospects come up.
Getz is decent, but sure, I have no problem promoting Johnny Giavotella – keep Getz and have the lefty/right split. Should be nice.
Twitter - @peterman7
by Peterman700 on Jul 20, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nitpicking? This team has many holes
If you look at the MLB stats page, ALL OF – the Royals trio have higher OPS than many good "name" players.
And Melky and Frenchy should not be expected to perform nearly this well next year. Quite frankly, Gordon should fall back some as well. And of course Frenchy may be gone next year. Melky may be as well. And neither of those guys are long-term players with the Royals unless Moore signs them to horrible long-term deals.
Pena is a good enough catcher for now, until one of our prospects come up.
He’s a pretty poor player. Good enough to be a competent backup and that’s all. And there is no decent prospect who should be ready anytime soon.
Getz is decent, but sure, I have no problem promoting Johnny Giavotella – keep Getz and have the lefty/right split. Should be nice.
No, Getz isn’t decent. He’s awful. And most analysts project Gia as a utility IFer who can’t play SS. That position is a huge question mark now and for the forseeable future.
Basically, your assertion that the Royals are essentially fine except for a few additions they need to make to the rotation is flat wrong. This team has multiple significant holes and isn’t particularly close to being any good.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
"Most analysts project Gia as a utility IFer"
This isn’t true
Do you think most prospect analysts think he'll actually stick as an everyday player?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
you cant ignore the 4 words after that....
his bat is likely to play as a 5th infielder but he lacks that versatility…i think thats what scott was saying
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we should all recognize the kind of odds Gio is up against
If 1 out of 5 top 100 prospects succeeds in the majors, then what are the odds for a clearly-not-top-100 prospect like Gio? That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t ever be given a shot. But we should recognize that him succeeding is a longshot.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Given the curve of the prospect graph
and the position Gio would have somewhere in the next 100, I would say about one in six. However, he is a second baseman, I think that is the one of the worst odds, so it may be quite a bit lower, say one in eight.
Go Royals!
Or on the other hand
Good 2b are in such scarcity that if he can even be an average one he’ll secure a place on a ML roster. Still hard for him to succeed, but he really doesn’t have to be more than 2 WAR to be considered a success there.
by Prime2U on Jul 21, 2011 5:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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