Moustakas, Should He Be Demoted?
Mike Moustakas has had a rough go since being promoted to the major league club on June 10th. So far this season, the 22 year old has a triple slash line of 0.198/0.262/0.252. Of the 358 players with at at least 110 PA, he has the 21st worst OPS in the league. Most of Mike's problems can be traced to his inability to hit the ball hard as seen by his 27% IFFB rate and the effects it has on his BABIP (0.233).
By playing so badly, I could easily see why people might think he should be sent down to Omaha to work on his swing. I am not sure if he has a problem with his swing or has been just a bit unlucky, but I think he should be kept up in the majors for the 2 following reasons.
1. Alcides Escobar Effect - Alcides struggled mightily at the beginning of the season. It took 253 PA for Escobar to get his OPS permanently above 0.533, Mike's current level. Escobar has been hitting decently and is becoming a positive contributor to the team.
Mike just may need more time to help figure out major league pitching. In the mean time, he is surprisingly making a positive contribution with his glove at 3B. Moustakas has a positive UZR for the season (0.8) and is passing the eye test, for me, with flying colors after hearing that his defense was sub-par from several sources.
2. Wilson Betemit will have to play - If Moustakas is sent down to Omaha, Wilson Betemit will probably get the call to play 3B. Wilson is not having as good of a season this year (0.750 OPS) as compared to last season (0.889 OPS). He has played decently and currently some teams are looking at possibly trading for him. The Royals should not give those teams a reason to not like Wilson by seeing him fail on the field.
GMs, although they shouldn't be, are swayed by recent small sample sizes. If Betemit has to play 3B and bat everyday, he could fail and decrease his trade value (which has decreased as the season has gone on). Also, he may increase it, but with teams already interested, I would just try to keep them after him.
Thoughts?
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Betemit's trade value should be a non-factor
As Royals fans we do this every year, assuming that these guys have trade value that they don’t. Hardly anyone has trade value anymore, because teams value prospects way more than they did 10 years ago.
That being said, a team probably doesn’t want to trade for a guy that isn’t playing at all. But that can be handled with two or three straight starts during trade deadline week.
Might as well abandon my comment, I agree
The trade value between what you could get from a team that really really wants Betemit isn’t going to be anything great, so it really can’t be hurt much regardless of what Betemit does, and it can’t hurt any more than Betemit riding the bench 90% of the time.
The idea that Betemit has no trade value is just stupid. We may be Royals fans, but this isn’t the 1880s. We have access to sources of information on other third basemen, and the position is full of suck this year. Even though he hasn’t played in 6 weeks, Betemit still has the 2nd most WAR in the division this year.
Don't you think his trade value is very small?
Like perhaps a borderline prospect (borderline between prospect and non-prospect)?
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
or at the very least
his trade value is small because other GMs know that there’s no reason to give DM a good deal because he’ll take their borderline players
I’d need to check to see if there was a change towards DM having problems pulling off good trades after he did stupid stuff like signing Guillen to 36/3. Because he was pulling off some pretty good deals in the first 18 months, and maybe the rest of the GMs realized he wasn’t all that smart by 2008.
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This
It’s not just about Betemit’s production relative to others at his position this year. It’s also very much about the position and mindset of the seller. Which was harmed significantly by Moose’s (probably too early) promotion.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 20, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
This is not how trading (relatively) unique goods works.
Basic economic theory would say that the price will be determined by the marginal value to the second highest bidder. Unless there’s only a single bidder for Betemit, then the fact that the Royals can’t use him shouldn’t affect the return for him. If one team values him at $4M and another values him at $3M, then he should go for $3M in value because the two teams will raise their bids up to that point, but the second team will raise its bid no farther. It does not matter what the seller’s needs are.
Something like that
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I figure he's not worth much more than a C / C+ prospect
Or maybe a busted prospect trying to reclaim past glory with a new approach.
I'm hoping C- for Betemit
I’d be happy to get a C+ for Melky.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I think mockery on this site has helped other Royals . . .
. . . at least those born in the contiguous United States.
I was never convinced Moose sucked at 3rd...
Granted in a very small sample, he looked very good at 3rd in the Futures game last year, making 2 really good plays, one of them a very rangy play to his right.
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How do you think he looks now?
I’d say his 3B defense looks clearly below average.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Like how he looks to us matters...
by billexgordler on Jul 20, 2011 9:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Do any of our opinions, analyses or comments matter? But we like to share and discuss them anyway. It’s kind of what this site is all about.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd say he is average...
Not quite “Gold Glove” his range is probably a little sub par but his arm is pretty bad ass.
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by averagegatsby on Jul 20, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
His arm is good when he’s not making errant throws. And he’s made too many.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he is probably below average
But he is better than I thought he would be. Not very rangy, and arm is a bit erratic, but he isn’t Billy Butler bad over there.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
In theory that should improve though right?
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by averagegatsby on Jul 20, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Fear not
for we have the RR reverse jinx
I am probably the only Royals fan in Hong Kong?
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jul 20, 2011 8:31 AM EDT reply actions
i wouldn't send him down yet
maybe in another month if he continues to flat out suck at the plate
Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."
--Albert Einstein
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 20, 2011 8:42 AM EDT reply actions
If my memory is correct
hasn’t he had an bit of an adjustment period at each level he’s been at? Now, if he’s having some confidence issues, and a few weeks at Omaha will help, I’m fine with that. But if that’s not the issue, then I see no reason to send him down.
by Royals fanatic on Jul 20, 2011 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
yeah
he always starts slow at a new level. His defense and plate discipline have both been better than advertised, those are two things you can’t really teach, so I’m happy. Last night’s at bats were pretty ugly though. He’s clearly guessing up there.
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Maybe its time for a trip to the Olive Garden?
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by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he needs to get selfish and stop with all of the math tutoring
and spend some time with the naked BP
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by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Lets not forget the Seitzer factor
Seitz must first break your swing before he can fix it.
We can’t send Moose down in the middle of this process. Seitzer’s work is only half done.
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I'm all for trading for Billingsley
but I hope we wouldn’t have to give Moose up. If DM and the Glasses are serious about fielding a competitive team in 2012 and 2013 they need to be bold and acquire a front of the rotation RH starter. I think Billingsley is interesting b/c: 1) the Dodgers are a mess 2) his contract is not outrageous but expensive for a cash strapped team and 3) his performance is down somewhat this year. The Royals have money (if they’re willing to spend it) and a range of prospects and the starter FA market is looking crappy. James Shields is pitching better and the options on his deal are more affordable but the asking price would be high. Wandy is a lefty, not as good and the Astros would want big prospects.
Billingsley probably profiles as a #2 more than a true #1 on a playoff caliber team, but he’s not the Dodgers’ #1 either, so maybe the Royals could take advantage of the chaos by offering to take on all of that money and snag him without truly elite prospects. What would it take/what would you give up for CB?
Considering the vast sea of suckitude
at 3b in the majors this year (see, for example, Scott Rolen, All-Star), Betemit actually would be an upgrade for several teams. He’d be an upgrade for the Royals too most likely for the rest of this year, but who cares?
I think Betemit has turned himself into a decent player. Bad fielder, but jeeze, the Blue Jays started E-5 Edwin Encarnacion for a while. There are lots of sucky 3b out there. Chisox even started Teahen 3 games in a row.
Melky, of course, has been even better than Betemit and is also a decent trade chip. Maybe trade Betemit to Brewers, and package whatever you get back with Melky to the Phils for a better prospect (Brewer minors fairly barren). I dunno, maybe Trevor May? Amaro seems willing to sell cheaply on prospects.
Melky at 3.3 WAR. Who’d have thunk it? I actually did, but I didn’t think it likely.
Come to think of it
Polanco has been playing hurt I think. Phils supposedly already interested in Melky supposedly. I don’t know what they’d part with. Not Domonic Brown. May is highly touted. 140 Ks in 106 innings in FSL, but also 46 walks. They’d likely keep him too, but like I said, Amaro has been willing to trade prospects.
May also has massive eyebrows. Almost like Groucho Marx wth the grease-paint look.
It is odd
How weak the 3B position has gotten league-wide. Any guesses why? It seems like any prospect now if they’re a good fielder will stick at SS, and if they’re a bad fielder, they’ll move to COF, with few guys sticking at 3B, or hitting enough to stick at 3B.
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by RoyalsRetro on Jul 20, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
injuries have ravaged the position this year
ARod, Sandoval, Zimmerman, etc
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Jul 20, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
I went very 3B heavy in all of my fantasy drafts...
Its worked for me fairly well.
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by averagegatsby on Jul 20, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What stupid logic!
And if Betemit absolutely lights it up, like, you know, he did the entire year last year it will boost his trade value.
Moose sucks period. Fine, he’s not ready I’ll be fair. The truth is it’s not about demoting him; he should have never been promoted in the first place. His OBP was below .350 in Omaha. A half of dozen players were outperforming him but he got the call just because he was a top prospect.
I do think this will be good for him in the long run, but I don’t have the highest hopes for him. Wieters, Bumgarner, Heyward will all be better MLB players than Moustakas. The guy can’t hit for average and strikes out a ton AND isn’t good in the field. He does hit for power, but I don’t see 30+ HR’s from him any time in the next few years.
I’m disappointed in him obviously. He’ll be 23 in about a month and a half. Lets hope he improves significantly
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 20, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions
If (and it is a big if) Wieters keeps playing like he has so far this season...
I think Wieters may well have the better career. .273/.334/.428 is a pretty good line when combined with his defense at catcher.
I think Moose’s will probably hit a bit better, but will be worse defensively. I probably wouldn’t trade Moose for Wieters straight up, but I’d consider it.
"I DARE you to make less sense."
Consider it all you want
But the Orioles would never do it. Heyward is a year younger than Moustakas and is a much better player.
I’m very discouraged with how awful Moustakas is playing. Hosmer and Heyward would have given us two franchise players to build with. Now we are stuck with a soon to be 23 year old who cannot make contact (and hasn’t hit that well in AAA if you look at his numbers)
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 21, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you missed my point.
I wasn’t suggesting that we could/should/will do a trade. I was just agreeing with you about the value of Wieters (as in he’s just as valuable as Moose).
"I DARE you to make less sense."
of course I got your point
I don’t agree with the trade scenario. Yes, he’s a couple of years older, but he’s hitting MLB ptiching well and is a better defensive player, plus he’s a catcher! No GM would trade Wieters for Moustakas, not even Moore if he could get that back.
Moustakas hit well in the Texas league where seemingly everyone rakes. He hasn’t been all that was hoped for since he was drafted.
I understand he’s a young player and will improve, but he looks like shit. Other teams promote their 22, 23 year old “stud” hitters and they look like they belong from day one. Moustakas looks horrible
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 21, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously, you didn't get my point at all.
You’re not agreeing with a trade scenario while I’m not making a trade scenario.
BlueEyes implied that he didn’t think Weiters was as valuable as Moose. I said that he was (and to demonstrate the point I said that I would probably take Weiters straight up for Moose). This wasn’t to say that such a trade was possible, but that I value both players about the same.
"I DARE you to make less sense."
The difference between Moustakas and Escobar
is that Escobar is supposedly a wizard with the glove, while Moustakas is below average. So while Escobar at least contributed in the defensive innings, Moustakas is hardly contributing at all. I believe he should be optioned to Omaha and let Aviles/Betemit play every day until the trade deadline.
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by Dr. van Strijcker on Jul 20, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions
Yes
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by Lum on Jul 20, 2011 11:31 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Dammit dammit dammit
Yes is what I want to say-
Because oh dear that batting line. On the other hand though, really, what’s the point of sending him down in a season like this… I think he may go the Escobar route and just get better with a bit of time. He can’t possibly hit that many infield flies forever, right?
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by Lum on Jul 20, 2011 11:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we all knew this year would be a bad one
sending him to Omaha won’t hurt our chances of competing this season. this pains me to write, as I will still have to watch him compete with St. Christopher for the greatest number of goundouts/popups.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
that was poorly written
my point is don’t send him to Omaha, let him figure things out in KC
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Agreed
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 2:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No - your opinion
I am the last to judge someones writing technique or there lack of.. We have enough to stress about being Royals fans
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 3:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That was poorly written
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 20, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Betemit's stats look pretty good for a 3B in this market
and combined with 2010 make a case that he has value, however limited. If he gets out there and looks rusty, the situation gets worse, so those stats might as well stay encased in amber.
Did Alcides and Moose switch bodies when Moose came up? How is AE hitting .336/.382/.493 and Moose hitting .198/.262/.252 over basically the same time period?
I'll leave the numbers to the PopTart crowd like Mckinney
But wtf has happened to Mooses power? Anyone who saw him in person saw the raw bat speed and monster HRs. Now all the sudden he is Chris Getz? I dont buy it. Something’s up. Even Wily Mo Pena runs into one now and then.
Either Seitzer fucked him up or his wrist is still hurt from that HBP in Omaha. But power like that doesn’t just dissappear overnight.
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by DaytonSucks on Jul 20, 2011 12:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 3 recs
Agreed - if Seitzer is tinkering with him just to get him some hits
he needs to back off. Gordon is one thing – his power was thought to be good but not great. But Moose is an exciting prospect because of that ridiculous power potential. If he was doing nothing else offensively but had several HRs so far I would be a lot less worried. Let the kid swing.
SEND THE MOUSE DOWN
This is what we all waited for ? Looks like shit.
Like Dayton Moore covered shit
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 4:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
can we say a more competent manager/gm team would handle
the moose/betemit promotion playing time scenario far differently. Do u really just hand a player a position that is batting .287 in Omaha? How about promoting him, giving him selected at bats and playing time to see if he can handle it. If you’re dogged determined Moose is ur future 3b, at this point, do you sit him for a period, and try to get his playing time thing right the next time.
Royals probably have their true 3b playing left field, and Moose, lacking a major league body and conditioning work ethic, should have been trade bait two years ago.
As long as he plays every day, I don't care where he plays
The talent is there. People are overreacting to small samples.
Overtracting - yes
Good subject for us to argue about on RR – yes
Should moose get sent down- No
U don’t just ride a bike your first time at it you gotta get scrapes, burns, & self doubt first before you just start riding. Moose will get it. He’s learning how to hit in the show with no training wheels or handle bars.
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
by Mas Cervezas on Jul 20, 2011 2:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we won't have a good enough idea of what Moustakas is about before July 31st
so demoting him to give Betemit 10 days is kind of stupid
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They shouldn't even consider sending him down, not yet.
He’s still adjusting, and the only way for those adjustments to really happen is at the ML level. He’s avoiding strikeouts and taking walks at reasonable rates – now he just needs to ease towards making better contact.
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 20, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions
The entire premise of this post is ridiculous. Anyone who thought Moose was going to land in KC and start hitting .300+ with power is a fool. The fact is 99% of players struggle when they first get to the majors. His problem is that he is trying too hard, and sending him to Omaha isn’t going to change that. If he’s hitting .205 or whatever in July 2012, I’ll worry. This is exactly why I want us to bring these kids up this year. Let them get their feet wet when it Ws and Ls don’t matter (eg we’re bad either way) so when it starts to matter they’ll already have that out of the way. Patience, my friends.
I think he has other problems than just "trying too hard"
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Rock Chalk Talk
I don't think those words mean what you think they mean
Wasn’t the “premise” of the post asking people whether they thought Moose should be sent down to get out of his slump? Maybe you believe asking people what they think to try to gauge public opinion is “ridiculous”. And 99% of players struggle initially is a “fact”?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 20, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
No he's lying
Hosmer hasn’t struggled so where are the 99 other players that are? Pineda isn’t struggling CROW hasn’t struggled.
So find me 297 players that are struggling and your random illogical theory won’t be debunked
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 21, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Alex Gordon's numbers through 160 PA in 2007 were very similar
and 169/289/250 in 2007 is probably slightly worse than 198/262/252 in 2011.
Moustakas is at 123 PA. So 37 more PA is like 10 days, until the deadline.
Really, the problem is that Moustakas has been told to be someone he is not by Seitzer. Moustakas needs to go back to what got him to the major leagues instead of being a spray/up-the-middle hitter.
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any evidence that he's been 'told to be something he's not'
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm pretty damn sure he was not tearing up AA and AAA with that swing
for one
should we just consider it a coincidence that he turned into a Seitzerized hitter?
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or maybe he's just taking the time to adjust to the level that he's taken at every level but AA
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
What is behind your (BHWick’s) claim that “he turned into a Seitzerized hitter”?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 20, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
and what exactly defines being seitzerized?
would it be melky career year where he’s showing much more power than ever before by pulling the ball hard more?….escobar deciding not to try to pull everything? you cant just blame seitzer when moose or anyone else has a bad month while completely ignoring the guys who have turned it around. he cant get all of the blame and none of the credit
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of players rake in AA and AAA and then not in the majors
And it usually isn’t because of some change their major league hitting coach forces on them. I see no reason to assume that Seitzer has hurt Moustakas. By the same token, I see no reason to assume Seitzer has helped Melky.
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by Scott McKinney on Jul 20, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i wasnt really even crediting seitzer with melky...
although, i do think he deserves much of the credit for escobar….im just saying if you’re going to blame him every time a player goes into a slump, then he damn well better get credit every time someone goes on a hot streak
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 20, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

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